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Yes. Disappointed and fully aware of the fact that they are not able to disclose publicly what they know and are engaged in and with whom. The lab tour was a way of showing shareholders what is going on ‘ behind the curtains’. The reactions I get from attendants are all very positive.
Broadcom ‘revolutionising’ datacom with 400G adaptors. LWLG talking 800 G/1600 G modulators. Revolutionising has many ‘ fathers’ and ‘ children’.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/broadcom-stock-avgo-ai-data-center-networking-gear/
Good call. I must add Lebby said this was an easy one. I added puts pressure on the others , not Lebby. Maybe I copied it from you. Lol.
I get your point, but stop playing ‘ victim’. You can critique as much as you want here. No problem. Yesterday Lebby extensively talk about the meaning of being ‘ dragged along’ and what that means in detail. Anyway please understand that NDA’s are two way agreements. In this case between Lightwave and big companies. It’s the big companies who likely are the ones insisting on secrecy for business and competitive reasons. Take my word for it, been 40 years in international business. In fact it’s not a bad sign, it indicates the importance these big companies attribute to this potential cooperation.
Secondly the Singapore foundry is a venture capital backed and private company with support of the Singapore government. They have no secrecy demands, they are completely in silicon photonics and have more to gain than to loose from this announcement. For LWLG this was an easy one, it adds business opportunities and it puts pressure on other ( bigger ) foundries., plus no secrecy demands. This company approached Lwlg a couple of months ago. They are nimble, fast in decision making. They were not on the previous Lebby list of foundries which were in the USA and Europe. Think about this . Could Lebby’s vagueness have anything to do with deals about to be signed? Giving away anything at this stage to shareholders would be illegal because it would impact the share price and can only be done when the signatures are on the deal. If anything the lab tour showed progress to shareholders.
Can’t say I was very happy with the presentation. I think it was an opportunity missed to fire up the shareholderbase.. The only ‘ emotional’ revelation was when Lebby’s ‘ engineering heart went in overdrive by showing his open eye diagrams to a room full of engineers at OFC . No balloons, t shirts or hats accompanying the announcement of the partnership with the Singapore silicon photonics foundry. Lebby is Lebby and his frequently used phrase ‘ I am excited’ seems to express all the emotion he can garner. He remains a cool British engineer.
Nonetheless it seems he is held back by NDA’s with the big foundries on the one hand and pushed to deliver by Tier 1 device and internet companies on the other hand. He is a ‘prisoner’ of big business interests. That’s not good for transparency, but basically great because it proves that big business is in the race.
The tour created more emotional connection than the presentation. A highly motivated work force working on the ‘internet future’, talented people working to make a difference with breakthrough technology, many concrete indications that deals are being worked on. Factual progress.
Let’s not forget that Lebby reconfirmed that Lightwave is ready to surf the upcoming 800/1600 G ( 4 lane) and beyond market explosion in 2025/2026. Let’s not forget that infrastructure decision need to happen at least a year in advance, which is around now, this summer. Let’s not forget that LWLG is ahead of any competition in the field and has a roadmap beyond the next breakthrough generation . There is nothing out there which can deliver what Lightwave can offer in real estate ( small form) speed, power efficiency and future roadmap. Shareholders need the cool of a British engineer.
LWLG will ride and surf nicely the enormeous 800G/1600 G (4 lane) wave market contest about to start LWLG is ready. Infrastructure decisions have come down 50% in leadtime due to AI. Frtom 2 to 1 year and shorter. Decisions need to be made now for implementation starting 2025. We have come far. A few years ago the industry standard was 10G per lane and we had 50 G. Huge changes are taking place. Silicon photonics foundry from Singapore spontaneously wants to do business. Industry Inflection point is now.
Plenty of shares up for borrowing at hardly any cost. That’ll put a smile on many faces here. Can’t wait for the shorts to bite and dig even deeper into their hole.
Don’t understand why you react. Sorry if you felt singled out. No, I don’t do personal attacks, I did not attack you personally. I may criticize a group. There are many more posters here who I know for years. You are not on that list.
It’s remarkable that the people with ‘ very critical’ questions and the most abrasive, judgemental remarks on Ihub never seem to be able to ask a question when they are actually participating in a presentation and are sitting in the audience. Seems more often than not they forgot the question or prefer to hide.
Claudia presence in Denver proves Polariton is still interested in Lightwave Logic. Unless Claudia is an ordinary Lightwave shareholder which is ok for me as well. Claudia H. of Polariton is a highly respected scientist around ETH Zürich. Having her there is interesting.
This is a private company with very powerful venture capitalists backing it. Don’t get hung up on any financials, they are not public . Lightwave has created losses over time to get here. We can see that because LWLG is a public company.
Any startup will need to invest before they can harvest. Interesting is that rhis Asian foundry was not on the Lebby list and that it specializes in silicon photonics for LiDAR, compute and sensory photonic chips next to datacom, Could it be that this foundry will develop application specific photonic chips for other verticals?
Great lineup of leadership and board members. These are professionals. It’s a private company. Public revenue figures need to be treated with care. What I do know is that decision making happens without external consultations and by the main private shareholders at lightning speed. That’s exactly the kind of catalyst you need to get boardrooms of Tier 1 companies across the world into sense of urgency mode.
We don’t know exactly. The cooperation started already last year. It would seem to me this Singapore company is ‘ hungry ‘ and may love the publicity it brings to their business. Their focus on silicon photonics and their serious intention to grow through innovation may have given them the opportunity of getting there first, I can tell you I recognize that kind of drive from privately lead Asian entrepreneurs. They push the boundaries and are 24/7 engaged to make it happen,
My emotional bias made me buy Lightwave shares today at 3,87. Thank you for the gift,
Singapore manufacturing and fast decision making is notoriously efficient. Of course this Singaporean OSAT sees Lightwave as a new business growth accelerator. An Asian foundry wasn’t part of the US and EU foundry line up. I bet it will drive all the others into working faster.
Lightwave Logic and Advanced Micro Foundry (AMF) Partner to Accelerate Development of Silicon Photonics Modulators Using Electro-Optic Polymers
One of the options for Lightwave is no doubt a strategy to address the various market segments for modulators. Will they e.g. enter into Joint Ventures for these ‘verticals’ ?
Electro-Optical Polymer Materials for Photonic Chip are potentially capable of revolutionizing various industries, not only data centers or telecommunications.
There is the medical industry and the opportunity of these materials to develop miniaturized and cost-effective optical coherence tomography (OCT) systems for high-resolution medical imaging.
There is the sensor industry: electro / optical polymers can be used to create highly sensitive and selective chemical and biological sensors, which have applications in environmental monitoring, food safety, medical diagnostics.
There is LiDAR for the automotive industry.
Entry into these markets would greatly create additional long term shareholder value over and beyond the current market focus. Hope to hear more this week,
Just observe that the shortposition dropped last quarter with around 1.8 million shares. With all their messages, busy and cluelessly cluttering this board they were able to obtain 90K shares from retail. Absolutely nothing by any standard of measure. The rest of the shares ( 1.6 Mio) was basically a ‘gift’ from the company ( new shares) to shore up the company’s cash position.
Now why are shorts not increasing their position if they are so sure the company will not deliver soon?
Your guess is as good as mine. I think they are just looking for the exit door and that all their messages here are reflecting growing desperation, . .
Why are shorts buying all the Lightwave shares they can get ?
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8oojeumhgtri0h0bditjt/March-31-2024-13-F.xlsx?rlkey=mg8f4ybvt9wgpoj46u356m3pk&st=cn4rpvam&dl=0
Tradero, next to Samsung he mentioned LG as well and added that many Chinese companies adopted OLED as well.
Another contender could be Universal Display Corporation (USA) itself of course ( Samsung having a major stake). The are many business, technology and customer base overlaps and business model is the same as Lightwave intends to pursue. Anyway it’s clear that the uniqueness in performance, energy efficiency and the small form factor of Lightwave’s offerings could lead to multiple commercialisation scenarios and opportunities. The share price may hurt, but the ( strategic) potential is still in tact and only growing more interesting by the day especially with the big chipmakers understanding they need to change course to maintain their technology lead.
Thanks for your opinion. Of course if an important multinational Tier 1 party would have knocked on the door since late last year that could have caused a change of the agenda. Well, I am intrigued by Lebby’s constant reference to Universal Display Corporation’s business model . Universal Display reached ‘ ubiquity ‘ for it’s OLED proprietary devices and Samsung has a major equity stake in Universal Display.
In Ghent Lebby referred to Samsung and LG again as major thrusts behind the global market roll out of OLED. ‘Everybody’ is using OLED on their displays today. Moreover the South Korea government ( basically supporting the Koreas chaebol industrial structure) has made electro optical polymers an industrial priority for it chip industry allocating $ 8 B to this initiative. Samsung is the number 2 chip maker world wide. Korean business has a long term strategic business outlook.
The relationships with Intel on the other hand are also intriguing. Intel was a likely Lightwave partner during Phil Smith’s CEO days when the company thought to be taken over by Intel because of its material proposition.
Today Leila Partdrige on the Lightwave BOD and Michael Lebby work together and they know each other from their Intel days. Michael and Leila headed Intel Capital’s first inroads into the Photonics area and I would assume they still have good relationships with Intel ( Robert Blum now ex Intel and Head of Intel Photonics used to work for Michael Lebby ).
In Ghent, Lebby referenced the great relationships of Leila and how she was seriously supporting the commercialisation. If anything, Intel needs to prove it is future proof. It’s building a huge industrial infrastructure in the USA , but it’s competitors Samsung and TSMC seem to move along even faster. Intel needs a catalyst for growth.
The seriousness of the Koreans on polymer material, the Korean drive to stay ahead and to plan according must not go unnoticed in many Tier 1 board rooms.
Wonder who the most likely strategic partner for Lightwave could be? Will it be Samsung - number 2 global chips manufacturer and shareholder Universal Display Corporation ( experienced organic led’s manufacturer )
or Intel- no 3 global chips manufacturer and in need of a catalyst for growth and credibility? Could Lebby’s silence and delays have something to do with the discussion on exclusivity or eventually an outright buy out?Cannot be a buy out scenarios yet, we would have been informed by the BOD, I guess. Anybody wants to chip in? Some strange call option activity going on at Intel.
Love some conspiracy and speculation as to what could be?
I think the word ‘ cult’ is often misused here. This is an investment hub. You invest in a company, you put your money into somebody else’s venture because you have reasons to believe it will be put to good use and you may benefit from it.
You hold onto your investment as long as you belief the company is going to deliver. That may take years and that’s the reason you can enter at a relatively low share price ( half the price of a package of sigarettes).
It’s not that you invested in a established revenue generating company. So there is more risk, but potentially also more gain. That’s the investment trade off. Nothing to do with a cult. It’s a rational decision ( I hope)!
If you are not convinced or have doubt you made the wrong decision better to get out. Simple as that. The grey area is where people get lost. Some go as far to criticize heir investment and call that their right, their opinion, their critical attitude. They criticize management, they criticize the strategy, they criticize anything, but themselves. I can’t understand this.
It’s a bit like being a volunteer in the Ukrainian army, criticizing your commander in chief and his strategy and asking the Russians for advice because you feel it’s your right to criticize and to vent your opinion. It’s the world upside down. Nothing to do with cult. Everything to do with rational decision making and taking responsibility for your own decisions.There is a whole army here who love to exploit every bit of management criticism here for their benefit,
Lebby;” Engineers are first to assess our technology, they ‘kick the tires’ and want to see that it works.But installing a new internet platform is also a strategic company decision and the top of these multinational companies gets involved. A top down process as well. I personally know all these multi- national company CEOs, so no issues there. I have recently been in OFC panel discussions with some of them and I also know them personally. The decision process is under way and it started last year. It's a top down and bottom up process.”
Walter, thank you for getting the discussion back on track and on fundamentals. The message board has off late become a gutter full of disposable diapers. Looking forward to clear and clean messaging.
Changing subject:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/12/south-korea-prepares-support-package-worth-over-7-bln-for-chip-industry.html
South Korea's Investment in Electro-Optical Polymer Materials for Photonic Chips
South Korea is actively investing in the research and development of electro-optical polymer materials for photonic chips. This effort is driven by the potential of these materials to revolutionize various industries, including:
Telecommunications: Electro-optical polymers can be used to create high-speed, low-power optical modulators and switches, which are essential components for next-generation optical communication networks.
Data centers: photonic chips made from electro-optical polymers can significantly increase the bandwidth and energy efficiency of data centers, leading to faster data processing and reduced operating costs.
Medical imaging: These materials can be used to develop miniaturized and cost-effective optical coherence tomography (OCT) systems for high-resolution medical imaging.
Sensors: Electro-optical polymers can be used to create highly sensitive and selective chemical and biological sensors, which have applications in environmental monitoring, food safety, and medical diagnostics.
Here are some specific examples of South Korea's investment in this field:
Government funding: The Korean government has allocated significant funding for research and development projects of approximately 8.3 million USD.
Several universities in South Korea are actively conducting research on electro-optical polymers for photonic chips. For example, researchers at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) have developed a new type of electro-optical polymer that exhibits high performance and stability.
Industry collaboration:South Korean companies are also collaborating with research institutions to develop and commercialize electro-optical polymer-based photonic chips. For instance, LG Electronics has partnered with the Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST) to develop high-speed optical modulators for 5G and beyond communication networks.
Overall, South Korea is making significant strides in the development of electro-optical polymer materials for photonic chips. This investment is expected to lead to the development of innovative and transformative technologies with applications in various industries.
If you run a business and you have something unique, make sure you cover your ass and protect it appropriately, patenting is important. You could have been the best in the past , but if you weren’t able to patent it or commercialize it’s worthless. The market recognizes that LWLG had patented it’s material, device, system and manufacturing for EOP materials and has given that the appropriate value for now.
If you are worried on bankruptcy, debt or loosing money best not to invest in your savings in Lightwave, buy an ETF or treasury bonds.
We all like to do good, we all like our place in the sun. Most important are someone’s intentions to do good.
I am not too much worried about some of the posters here. I think many of those have not been in business. They look backward and are risk averse. I see it as a form of entertainment.
Every business plan in whatever business is based on market predictions and expectations, belief in own organizational capabilities, likely competitor moves. All is fluid and requires adaptive forward planning. It’s what makes business and equally what makes investing in business.
That’s why we are here, because we believe and expect the business plan to be executed successfully.
Investing also requires the ability to deal with ambiguity, complexity, pro’s and con’s and to adapt to changing circumstances.
Especially when you invest in an innovative ( unique) and disruptive technology in an established trillion dollar industry you need to understand the industry dynamics and the huge financial implications for all industry participants, both positive and negative.
My hope is that the industry financial specialist at the large investment banks are well aware of the Lightwave opportunity and don’t kill a promising technology for the USA and the globe. The messengers here (including myself) are currently being played. I hope the good guys win and that Lightwave gets the opportunity to execute its plan successfully.The upside is ‘limitless’ and the downside is small and becoming absolutely less interesting financially by the day.
I firmly belief in the expectations and believes as put down in the recent 10Q, contrary to some of our backward looking messengers.
In fact if you can only look backward you shouldn’t invest at all. Investing by looking backward is really for dummies. Everyone had the right to express his or her opinion of course, but being ‘ critical’ based on the past doesn’t add any value for the shareholders.
The first big deal and most ‘ critical’ messengers will disappear faster than the speed of light, except GP of course.
Is a foundry like TSMC or Intel a tier 1? I think so. Jabil is a Tier 1 contract manufacturer and there are also OSAT’s who receive diced wafers from foundries and other components to make an integrated product ( e.g. transceiver, other applications)
There are Tier 1 material companies ( e.g. Macom, Applied Materials), Tier 1 device manufacturers e.g. transceivers, lasers, Tier 1 system building companies and Tier 1 final customers: hyperscalers, car manufacturers, health care companies etc
Lightwave told us they focus on datacom and therefore we tend to expect deals with Google, AMS and Meta. That may well be, but deals may also involve material sales, license and technical assistance agreement( royalty agreements with any of the companies in the supply chain and the final customers for transceivers.
By the way the video is from 3 months ago. Good to know that the problems described by Jabil and Silitronics may well have been solved already. Interesting to see that Global Foundries 256 Gbps Fotonix 45 eco system platform has 8 lasers, 8 X 32Ghz modulators. It’s a complicated, expensive and power hungry piece of evolutionary product development on a 300 mm silicon photonics wafer. Can’t see this compete over time with a Lightwave based platform.
Global Foundries presentation is on the video as well.
Just been listening ( Optica video from a few weeks ago ) to Jabil ( one of the largest contract manufacturer) and Silitronics (OSAT) challenges in scaling up silicon photonics heterogeneous integration after receiving wafers (PIC’s) from foundries and components from various suppliers. Both companies are the last leg in the supply line of finished products e.g. transceivers to the hyperscalers, let’s say the Googles, Ams’s and Meta’s of the world. Both confirmed that end user demand of hyperscalers is exploding, but that their manufacturing mass volume and testing challenges are the biggest issues right now and are being addressed.
I guess Lightwave and the various foundries in the supply chain have done their part, the OSAT’s and contract manufacturers are the current hold up and they are working hard to solve these issues . Message here don’t worry, it’s our mission in life. I remember Lebby saying if we get to the point of needing outside manufacturing capacity we have ourselves created a luxury problem.
Spartex. I took the top 5 by marketshare based on Lebby’s statement ‘ multinational ‘ pluggable transceiver companies. Here is another list with transceiver companies with Cisco included and a number of Chinese companies.
Major Optical Transceiver companies include:
Coherent Corp. (US)
INNOLIGHT (China)
Accelink Technology Co. Ltd. (China)
Cisco Systems, Inc. (US)
Hisense Broadband, Inc. (China)
Lumentum Operations LLC (US)
Sumitomo Electric Industries, Ltd. (Japan)
Broadcom Inc. (US)
Fujitsu Optical Components Limited (Japan)
Intel Corporation (US)
This is what I pulled off the internet. Not sure Lebby wants to conceal anything. If he casually drops names, I normally take him serious. Using names of reputable companies may otherwise lead to legal claims by the companies in question or may even be considered misleading shareholders. So again, I take his information on face value and as serious.
See what CEO’ s of Internet companies are really worried about:
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/digitalbridge-ceo-data-centers-will-run-out-of-power-in-two-years/
Yes, but light or data still need to go in and out of storage. Lightwave Logic’s 9mm modulators would probably be the best option both as pluggable or on board photonics since they are so miniature and power efficient.
Here is a scientific paper on a possible change from Lithium Niobate with its inherent limitations in fabrication and scaling to Lithium Tantalate. It would seem it would solve some of the scaling issues, but bandwidth remains 40 Ghz and other performance parameters are clearly inferior to Lightwave . .
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07369-1
Taking Lightcounting market forecasts as a basis and assuming Lightwave could achieve a 50% marketshare in high speed transceivers ( 800G and up) - which is not ubiquity- and a low 10% marketshare in the incumbent market ( up to 200G) this would translate in a revenue ( assuming packaged modulators are 35% of total transceiver cost) of around 12 Billion times 35% is = $ 4.2 Billion over the next 5 years. Assume an OLED margin of 85% which results in $ 3.6 Billion profit over 5 years or 700 million average per year. Using OLED’ s Price/ Earnings ratio of 40 would than deliver a theoretical market capitalization of $ 28 Billions.
In the 10Q reference is made to the Largest Tier 1 pluggable transceiver companies . Here are the most likely top 5 candidates:
1. Finisar Corporation II-VI
2. NADDOD Pte Ltd
3. Lumentum Holdings Inc.
4. Broadcom Inc.
5. Intel Corporation
Ethernet optical transceiver forecast including an estimate for the contribution of optical connectivity for AI clusters to this market.
Total sales of optical transceivers for applications in AI clusters ( high speed 800G and up) will add up to $17.6 billion over the next 5 years – indeed a very large number, considering that all other applications of Ethernet transceivers combined will generate $28.5 billion over the same period. ( Source: Lightcounting).
Well, if a swarm of locusts descended on this board. I bought a few days ago for 3,87 still a nice buy. With the 10Q published tonight today’s action seems like last orchestrated desperate effort for shares. I would say ideal moment to cover or to accumulate. Don’t forget friction means heat and we longs have quite some experience with this game. Have a nice weekend and hopefully a good 10Q read ( if not delayed, because they may want to prop it up with some exciting news).
Maybe good to realize that our messages have a power footprint:
Text-based message use 0.003-0.014 watt-hours (Wh)
Image message: 0.01-0.2 Wh
Video message: 0.1-10 Wh
Frequent and non sensical messages are a waste.
Rikkie, in the bigger picture these shorts are nothing to worry about. The short opportunity here is minuscule compared to what other opportunities are available in the market. In other words a bunch of unfortunate gamblers,
got inadvertently stuck and are trying with time progressing to get out slowly, There are people who play this for fun and short term trading missing the long term opportunity. That’s reality some play it long and get potentially awfully rich if it works out, ,some play this short time and risk averse for a few pennies in the dollar day by day. Anyway it doesn’t work out as planned both stand to lose. Personally I am convinced the longtime waiting will at short term be over.