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No more buying for me
Watching and waiting
ROFL
This is ridiculous.
This company is not worth $15 per share post-patent-disaster.
UNLESS lightning strikes on another indication. Which is unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely.
Yes that's 8 to 10 year regulatory exclusivity in Europe. No one who watched the train wreck in the US is going to assume patent protection beyond that.
Like I said, the other indications would have to be CVR'ed, unless something miraculous occurs pre-buyout. Those are of course possibilities. The Kaiser trial could create interest in the long COVID thing (big maybe), BRAVE I don't know. It's a Phase II trial. Much more speculative.
Don't expect an acquirer to be as starry eyed as folks on this board about further indications. The acquirer sees a sales stream off of CVD.
To be fair and balanced, this is a different kind of biotech investment for Sarissa.
Most of the other ones were either development stage companies or companies that had a genuine pipeline. These kinds of companies garner a different valuation methodology for acquisitions that doesn't apply here.
Based on the current indication and the patent runway, you're probably looking at valuing that stream based on $2bn peak sales. The buyout value of that is somewhere between 1x and 2x sales -- probably closer to the lower end because of the crater in the US market and risks around patent protection post-exclusivity period in Europe.
I think there is little chance of a meeting of the minds on the upfront $ value of possible additional indications for Vascepa, or of the (limited) value of any gimmicks like the combo pill. That would likely have to be handled by CVR(s).
If Denner could actually get this pig sold, I think we'd be looking at $6 to $7 per share plus CVR(s). I think the absolute upper bound is $10 -- which is 2x peak sales of $2bn.
It is absolutely true that we do not definitively know his plan here. All we know is his history, and his statements.
The history is a pretty strong indicator, however. M&A is his go-to approach. "Among Sarissa’s successful investments were Idenix, which was sold to Merck for $3.85 billion, ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, which was acquired by Takeda Pharmaceutical Co for $62 billion, and Bioverativ, which was spun off from Biogen and then sold to Sanofi SA for $11.6 billion." And there are others.
When you combine that history with the blunt fact that GIA is the Road to Hell for this one-drug company with no real game plan, it's not a big stretch to think the plan is to sell this turd.
Executives who negotiate attractive buyouts get paid very well.
Two choices:
1) leave current Mgmt in control and watch your future profits turn into compensation until the well runs dry, or
2) give the raider control, and have some chance of value extraction
Let’s do some basic Aristotelian logic.
Small companies with a one-drug pipeline and a finite patent runway have no unfair advantage over anyone to monetize the drug.
They have the projected cash flow off that runway. That’s it.
There is NO way a small company can monetize that runway anywhere near as efficiently as a Big Pharma company — they already have the apparatus to sell the drug and the expertise to maximize footprint as fast as possible. Margins simply go way up, and there are no mitigating variables.
This was probably the simplest analysis Sarissa ever performed. This company is worth $x on a DCF basis in its current, maximally inefficient configuration, and $2x simply having its single drug acquired.
There’s nothing AMRN can do on its own that a big company can’t do way better. That’s why Denner bought into this turd. That’s the obvious fact he saw.
Clearly this timing was meant to ensure that analyst questions will be asked about this at the JPM presentation tonight.
MRM…. We’re waiting….
I love those posts!
I presume the runup is just the standard JPM conference pump?
Or is something else going on?
In any case, we'll get a nice math post from MRM at the end of the day...
I was never in NWBO. I made a small profits on puts once -- many years ago now. That's it.
Don’t be so sure.
An instructive case is the giant investment by Neil Woodford, the erstwhile “Warren Buffett of Europe”, into the steaming turd pile better known as Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO).
Ostensibly smart people sometimes make really bad judgments, especially if they are making lots of those judgments at the same time.
A fund "friendly to AMRN management" would be a fund "that loves losing money for its investors" -- I'm not aware of any funds that fit that description.
AMRN management is simply counting on the normal distribution of shares between disparate retail and institutional investors to allow them to siphon off every last dollar in the form of compensation until all the patents run out.
Denner would have to make a tender offer for this pig (which would be financial suicide anyhow), and thanks to AMRN being incorporated under English law, it is exceedingly difficult to push through a takeover over management's dissent.
AMRN management, vampires that they are, have this company well set up to turn into a giant bag of blood to suck down over time. The company has been set up to make it as easy as possible to do this.
I had a double Pfizer and then a booster. I’m not getting any more points COVID vaccine shots. I have not tested positive for COVID to date, but I was sick as a dog for 3 weeks in Jan of 2020 — antibody tests said I never got it but I’m not sure.
We got jammed with an inadequately tested set of vaccines because things were dire. I wouldn’t be as bothered by it if they had just been honest about that. You take greater chances in dire circumstances.
I don’t trust the government or the CDC at all. The powers that be let us down. They put politics before general welfare. COVID was a pandemic, and it was exploited for political gain. We have to weed these autocrats out of the system.
Did you see the movie "The Fugitive" starring Harrison Ford?
Yeah, a huge presumption of climate activists is that the status quo is always optimal, and that any changes on the margin are bad, no matter what they are.
That’s both intellectually dishonest and scientifically simply false. Even when calculating just on a net human basis, it’s never knee-jerk clear what the reality is.
A world with more CO2 is a greener world. No one is really sure what the net impacts are for people, animals, all of life. But when you presume any change is bad, you end up showing only your bad presumption— you emphasize negatives and ignore positives.
Anybody who shows up and discourages consumerism and the mindless pursuit of secular objectives would be crucified.
Who would study it?
AMRN doesn't have the money or time to do it. Big Pharma isn't interested in benign, "organic", and relatively inexpensive long-term solutions to anything. They want expensive Frankenstein solutions, and will work actively to snuff out anything that threatens that model. We've enjoyed that reality personally.
If someone discovered that doing 10 left-handed 10-pound curls a day prevented heart attacks completely, Big Pharma would silence and then kill that person and the idea as quickly as possible.
This is officially my favorite defiant post.
It’s nuts — but I still love it.
My million share buy went through
Stock up 9 cents -- you're welcome
I don't think I agree P-dude
Drugs are political, like everything these days, and COVID is the chosen ailment. People are more afraid of getting COVID than they are of being run over by a trash truck.
If V is effective against "long COVID" (whatever that is), righteous progressives will expect Uncle Sam (and other Uncles in ROW) to pay for that protection.
We need a new discovery. Period.
A new indication. Something astounding.
The alternative is a slow bleed out.
440 euros for a month's worth, retail?
Seems high!
Unfortunately due to the clownish level of mismanagement this company has suffered, slow and steady liberation from 25% of CVD risk isn't going to keep this company solvent long-term.
Thanks to the dolts, we now have to find some Shock & Awe somewhere. People die of heart failure and they move on. Nobody says, "If only we could have had him on 4g of EPA for 5 years." But if you can go see Grandma in the home and she actually remembers you, or if you don't have to suffer from no taste and constant coughing from long COVID -- there's where you can get bang for your buck.
At this point, after f'ing up the golden goose, we need a lightning bolt. If we don't get it, what we get is the chance to watch management slurp every last nickel out of the trough until finally the farmer runs out of slops.
Here's why, if you understand the MOA of EPA, you cling to this pig with irrational hope of some kind of miracle exit:
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2021.796867/full
CVD is just an indication. It isn't the central theme here. Systemic inflammation f's up the body and soul in so many ways. When jesselivermore was here, he talked about that all the time. He got into AMRN because he saw stunning results in recovery times for his plastic surgery patients. Again, that's just one indication.
It's like we've discovered unobtanium and we're using it only to power lava lamps. If we had management with vision who knew what they had, it would be a whole different outlook. Instead, all they can come up with is stapling Vascepa pills to statins. Jesus help me.
How much are the generics undercutting V anyhow? It isn't that much, is it?
gV is pretty expensive considering it's DOGSHIT.
Can someone remind the board of the key catalyst dates again? Specifically: BRAVE, MITIGATE, Ch 11 filing, stuff like that.
Thanks
Jesus dude are you serious?
If that is accurate -- and it may well be -- then it's over.
The present value of free cash flow off this indication is $0. Projected revenue - normal expenses - executive pigs at the trough = $0.
I will say this though. If the thesis on the MOA of EPA is really true, then CVD efficacy can't be all there is. It simply can't be. The impacts of systemic inflammation are legion.
We're not going anywhere interesting on CVD -- that's just the reality.
The trolls led by Nissen have adequately peed in that pool -- facts notwithstanding.
Our last stand is a new indication. Alzheimers or cancer -- the former is more likely.
If that doesn't happen soon, this company is a wasting trust for the benefit of scumbag executives.
Reverse splits are how to signal to the shareholder community that you are throwing in the towel on preserving their value.
It's like saying, "Sorry suckers. You lost this bet. Time to tidy this thing up and try to lasso a whole new herd of suckers."
It's impossible to have any insight whatsoever into what Denner is or isn't doing.
He ran his playbook so far -- bought a stake, threatened management and the Board, decided their response was unsatisfying, started a proxy battle. That's the playbook.
It's impossible to know anything about how he feels about the gamble he took here. What isn't impossible to know is that AMRN is hardly the top concern of Denner right now in the context of all of his activist investments.
It's a volume business. If he takes 10 positions and 6 of them are winners, he makes out like a bandit. He's perfectly capable of looking at 1 of them at some point and saying, "Ok, that was a loser. Get out and let's move on."
The existing power apparatus, headed by the courts, LOVES these outcomes. It loves running over innovators, stealing patents, and delivering cheap drugs over the eviscerated husks of entrepreneurial companies.
None of this is about logic or fairness. It's about a worldview, and political objectives, that run roughshod over any other principles. And all the righteous indignation in the world isn't going to change that. Not one iota.
The US is a judicial wasteland, where personal viewpoints trump principles in every case that matters. Pure Machiavellian will. The US is gone for AMRN, no matter what happens. Du stole their IP, the system backed her up, and AMRN needs to tell the US to go f itself. Any other approach is wasted effort and wasted money.
After the Du decision and the abject bias of the appeals court, no patents can be considered safe. Hindsight is 20/20 in the patent world — everything is obvious.
Dude, approval in China is like getting a complimentary room in Quentin Taratino's "Hostel".
The Chinese can be trusted to compensate Amarin fairly about to the same extent as Alejandro Mayorkas can be trusted to keep the border closed.
Been there done that, too many nights