Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[IgnoranceIsBliss]

To be fair and balanced, this is a different kind of biotech investment for Sarissa.

Most of the other ones were either development stage companies or companies that had a genuine pipeline. These kinds of companies garner a different valuation methodology for acquisitions that doesn't apply here.

Based on the current indication and the patent runway, you're probably looking at valuing that stream based on $2bn peak sales. The buyout value of that is somewhere between 1x and 2x sales -- probably closer to the lower end because of the crater in the US market and risks around patent protection post-exclusivity period in Europe.

I think there is little chance of a meeting of the minds on the upfront $ value of possible additional indications for Vascepa, or of the (limited) value of any gimmicks like the combo pill. That would likely have to be handled by CVR(s).

If Denner could actually get this pig sold, I think we'd be looking at $6 to $7 per share plus CVR(s). I think the absolute upper bound is $10 -- which is 2x peak sales of $2bn.