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Bird, 12in wafers sure increase die count.
Thanks for the info from TSMC:
"We are ramping up out Fab 12 (phase I now. We expect monthly output will be around 13k 12" wafers per month by end of 2002. Besides, you are right the designed ultimate monthly output is around 25k/month. Thanks,"
I got to wondering how many die can be cut from a 12 inch wafer, with die having the dimensions of the TM5800 (55mm2). There is a handy handy utility program to calculate die count from wafers at
http://www.geek.com/procspec/software/wafer/wafer.htm
Inputing 7.42mm as the dimension for a side of the square (7.42mm x 7.42mm = 55mm2), the die count from a 12 inch (300mm) wafer is 1143! TSMC's production of 25,000 wafers per month should keep TMTA going, along with the other TSMC customers for high-end chips. 25,000 x 12 x 1143 = 342M/yr!
regards, wsh
Info on Banias
In searching for info for Steak, I ran across an article from last month which provides insights into the Banias. See
http://www.vanshardware.com/articles/2002/04/020418_WinHec/020418_WinHec.htm
The author makes the following educated guesses re the Banias:
Although Mr. Otellini divulged very few technical facts regarding Banias, we have a list of details that we believe are accurate.
Banias is essentially a Pentium III core fitted to a low-voltage 400 MHz Pentium 4 bus. Some architectural changes had to be made to the PIII core to accommodate a doubled 64-byte L2 line size.
The Level 2 cache size is 1MB. The cache was enlarged to, in part, reduce thermal density. Banias will be introduced on a 0.13-micron copper process next year. Certain Japanese mobile OEMs are expected to have working silicon shortly.
Initially, Banias will ship at 1.6 GHz and will consume roughly 24.5W. From a power consumption standpoint, this compares poorly with the shipping AMD (Thoroughbred) Mobile Athlon XP launched earlier this week, which may demand less than 20W at the same clock speed.
Apparently INTC has abandoned the notion that Banias would be an entirely new chip, built from scratch with an entirely new architecture. Looks like same old, same old.
Will be fun to watch the Intel FUD when TMTA rolls out the 256-bit Astro, running 1.4GHz, 2MB L2, and 0.5w.
regards, wsh
Nice work Steak, thanks.
I know I have seen a site that listed the various INTC, AMD and TMTA chips and had a price for each. I thought I had bookmarked it, but I cannot find it. IAE, from memory the price for the TM5800 was around $140. However, I think that price is discounted to an OEM, probably in the range of 20-30%. In my calculations, I have used an ASP of $100 for the current mix of TMTA chips (a mix of some TM5600s and more TM5800s), but even that figure might be high, particularly as INTC is aggressively cutting prices these days.
An interesting article from last Fall indicated that TMTA chips had an ASP of $100: "The average selling price for Crusoe is around $100, according to most analysts."
http://techupdate.zdnet.com/techupdate/stories/main/0,14179,5097756,00.html
That same article indicates that the TM6000 will be a lower-priced chip, and aimed at very cost-conscious markets like servers and embedded devices. I do agree that the Astro should be a chip with a significantly higher ASP.
To my way of thinking, TMTA is going to have to get to annual production of over 2M chips to approach profitability (pro forma). That is 40,000 chips per week. Well within the capabilities of TSMC, but not for awhile and perhaps not possible during CY02.
I came up with this production target assuming an ASP of $100, margins of 45%, and quaterly expenses of $22M, In fact,we probably need to get to production of 50,000 per week and enjoy revenues from other sources, such as design services and, perhaps, licensing. Such production targets go a long way to explaining the shift from IBM to TSMC.
A final point is that I feel the Casio expectation of 20K chips is likely to be at the low end of an OEM requirement. TMTA likely will have a number of OEMs with orders of such magnitude, but also number of OEMs with much higher requirements. I think it a virtual certainty that Fujitsu and Sony have each already purchased over 20K Crusoes in CY02.
regards, wsh
Taiwan's Challenge 2008
Interesting article on Taiwan's six-year national high-tech development plan,
Government unveils details of six-year development plan
Published: May 10, 2002
Source: Taipei Journal
http://www.taiwanheadlines.gov.tw/20020517/20020514f1.html
In 2008, when Beijing is in the limelight hosting the Olympic Games, Taiwan will be evaluating the effectiveness of the six-year national development plan released this week. This development blueprint is the latest effort to foster the creativity and talent Taiwan needs to evolve into a "green silicon island." Calling the plan "Challenge 2008," Premier Yu Shyi-kun said the projects will cover wide-ranging areas focusing on economic growth and environmental protection. He said internationally the nation faces technological challenges and a loss of investment and skilled managers to mainland China. The Executive Yuan has formulated three major reforms and four major investments in the national development plan.
The four major investments include cultivating talent, research and development and innovation, international logistics, and a high-quality living environment. Yu said implementation of the plan will boost economic growth to more than 5 percent, while lowering unemployment to less than 4 percent.
The 10 projects will cost an estimated US$749.28 billion, of which US$26.59 billion will be private-sector investment. The remainder will come from the central and local governments, along with government funds, with an extra US$1.44 billion being allocated each year for a total of US$8.65 billion over the six years.
According to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics, the various ministries will see their annual budgets grow by 14 percent, public construction by 5 percent and science and technology by up to 15 percent. Investment in research and development will be raised from 2.05 percent of gross domestic product at present to 2.62 percent in six years and 3 percent in 10 years.
Vice Premier Lin Hsin-i pointed out that the government presently accounts for 38 percent of spending on research and development with only 62 percent of such investment coming from the private sector. He hopes that by 2007, private sector investment in research and development will reach 70 percent, with the government's share dropping to 30 percent.
The plan puts primary emphasis on cultivating talent, especially English ability and technological skills. The premier believes that such skills will be necessary for Taiwan to compete globally.
To achieve these aims, the Ministry of Education will promote English proficiency, improve quality of teachers and reduce discrepancies between urban and village areas by providing incentives such as rental and transportation subsidies to attract teachers to outlying areas.
Education Minister Huang Jong-tsun said many urban kids begin going to bilingual and English-language schools as early as kindergarten, which have native speakers. In contrast, kids from rural areas do not have English classes until the fifth grade. As a result, their listening and speaking abilities lag far behind their urban counterparts.
According to Ho Mei-yueh, vice chairwoman of the Council for Economic Planning and Development, the economic part of the plan will focus on developing value-added products and promoting the island as a research and development, and operations center.
To reach these goals, the government will allocate US$1.44 billion over five years to provide manufacturers with low-interest loans for research and development. The government will also take the lead in setting up 50 venture capital funds in the next six years to encourage startups. Each fund will have US$57.64 million for a total of US$2.88 billion.
The Executive Yuan's Development Fund will supply 30 percent of the capital, with the rest coming from the private sector. These funds will be used in promoting knowledge-intensive industries such as biotechnology and nanotechnology, and to establish international marketing channels and local brands.
To develop core technologies, 60 research and development alliances will be established in areas such as system-on-chip, optical information and communications, and biotechnology and genetic engineering.
The island has already made great strides in previously targeted areas. The production value of both the island's semiconductor and LCD industries is expected to pass the NT$1 trillion (US$29 billion) mark by 2006.
Since local integrated-circuit designers are in short supply, the Industrial Technology Research Institute's System-on-Chip Center and the National Science Council's Chip Implementation Center will set up an academy to work on training for design, manufacturing, packaging and testing.
Meanwhile a digital academy will graduate 2,000 students in information technology each year, with an additional 10,000 workers getting on-the-job training. In six years, the government also hopes to popularize home and commercial use of the Internet to reach its target of 6 million broadband households.
The government will set up 10 research and development centers including one for genetic research and development at Academia Sinica, mobile communications at the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, nanotechnology at ITRI and design at the Nankang Software Park. The government will also establish eight science-based parks, including biomedical and IC design parks in Hsinchu, and science-based parks in central and southern Taiwan.
CEPD officials said the information communications, biotechnology and nanotechnology industries will be crucial to Taiwan's development. While they believe that the government has invested enough in the first two, they think Taiwan lags behind Europe, the United States and Japan in nanotechnology. The government is determined to close this gap by investing US$667.78 million between 2003 and 2008.
In terms of transportation, the government is constructing a high-speed rail, linking stations with freeways and secondary railways, and building urban mass rapid transit systems. A direct rail line from Taipei to Hualien through the mountains is also being planned. Such a line could reduce travel time to 70 minutes. The trip now takes as long as three hours.
The government will also link airports and harbor facilities to promote more efficient multimodal transport. Lin Ling-san, head of the Ministry of Transportation & Communications, said if all the plans are implemented, the government will spend an estimated US$23 billion over the next six years.
As for tourism, Minister without portfolio Lin Sheng-feng said the goal is to double the number of tourists and raise its share of gross domestic product from 3.4 percent to 6 percent by 2007. In 2001, there were 2.62 million visitors, including foreign workers, tourists and business travelers. Tourists alone numbered 990,000. The goal is to double this to 2 million.
To do this, the visa application process may be simplified, tourism information will be made more accessible over the Internet and speed and convenience of the local transportation system will be improved.
Lin also pointed out that the sustainable development segment will include better management of water, flood prevention projects and promotion of renewable energy resources. In light of recent water shortages, US$1.15 billion will be invested to develop water resources and a desalination plant with a daily capacity of 60,000 metric tons of water to supply the Hsinchu and Tainan science-based industrial parks.
The MOEA said presently reservoirs can provide 4.2 billion metric tons of water annually, or 1,160 metric tons daily. Construction on the new reservoirs will begin in 2005, with completion between 2008 and 2014.
Furthermore, a 700-hectare artificial lake will also be built in Kaohsiung and Pingtung counties. This will also be the nation's first flat reservoir and will cost US$461 million. Another US$368.88 million will be used to divert rivers to the Tsengwen and Nanhua reservoirs. Presently the sewage systems of only 8 percent of Taiwan's people lead to wastewater plants. This will be raised to 20.3 percent in six years.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Affairs will invest US$115.27 million to develop renewable energy. Moreover, the annual production value of solar water heaters is expected to increase to US$40.35 million from US$23.1 million.
The MOEA also plans to build a solar city, which will be fully powered by solar energy. A wind farm will be set up on the west coast, where wind resources are abundant, and park run on geothermal energy will be established as well.
"The most challenging part of the six-year development plan, however, is promoting an innovative culture," remarked Chen Chi-nan, minister without portfolio. He believes without brainpower, industrial transformation is not possible. It is only through upgrading design through innovation that higher value-added production can be attained.
The Council for Cultural Affairs will invest US$100.86 million to establish five innovative culture parks in Taipei, Taichung, Chiayi, Tainan and Hualien, the latter four in old Taiwan Tobacco and Wine Monopoly Bureau distilleries and warehouses. Wu Mi-cha, vice chairman of the CCA, said these five parks will be operational in four years at the latest.
Previously, people thought of the arts either in terms of high-brow or popular culture, but seldom in connection with industry. The CCA hopes that by incorporating MOEA experience and resources to promote an artistic and cultured lifestyle, it will contribute to the economy.
As part of this plan, the council will invest US$270.89 million to preserve and revitalize historical and cultural sights. The CCA pointed out that urban development has threatened cultural preservation despite promulgation of the in 1982 Cultural Heritage Preservation Law.
Finally, because of the rapid aging of Taiwan society, the government has incorporated caretaking into the plan. Beginning in June, all people above 65 years of age incapable of caring for themselves and disabled people will receive eight hours of free caretaking services per month from the government. The government will allot US$147 million to create 24,800 jobs, with some 100,000 people benefiting from the services.
Second source for Crusoes?
While I share concerns regarding TSMC's ramp of .13 micron chips, I don't think a second source is appropriate at this point. I found it interesting that cadpdvr emphasized M Perry's comments that there exists a special relationship between the company and TSMC. I think this is very real, and, really, is our ace in the hole. David Tai, a TMTA board member, was part of the team that launched TSMC (David wrote the business plan if I recall), and I am sure remains very active in that company. I believe that TSMC has made a firm commitment to TMTA to ramp to a certain minimum volume of chips per week (I believe that this is 10,000) and TSMC has made it a corporate priority to get there. The recent increase in capex (to US$2.5B in '02) by the TSMC board was a strong sign of this I thought, as well as a sign that TSMC intends to be THE contract foundry.
While we can be frustrated by what appears to be strong demand for Crusoes and slowly increasing supply, the bottom line is that we have a state of the art foundry aggressively ramping up production to meet our needs, with an apparent commitment in the midterm to being able to produce whatever we can sell. Not a bad situation all in all.
All the chip builders seem to be having problems with moving to 300mm wafers and .13 micron spacing, even Intel (having major leakage problems?). I very much doubt that UMC is able to produce acceptable .13 micron product at this point. If they had this capability, AMD would be the first buyer in line.
my US$0.02 wsh
PS: Bird, do you know how many TM5800s can be produced from a 300mm wafer, assuming a high yield?
Thanks, cadpdvr, for the report and thanks for attending.
Reading your comments makes me regret not being there. Shareholder meetings really are the one time where the retail shareholders can communicate with mgt and get a sense of how things really are going. The institutions, high rollers (eg Allen, Soros) and analysts get access whenever they want, but this is it for us. Reading between the lines of your report and those of others, it seems like you all left reassured that things are going pretty well and that we have firm hands on the controls. Nice to hear.
regards, wsh
Nice find Steak. I like the Casio design
Interesting that Casio seems to be proceeding with a "Tablet PC" without any attempt to be a MSFT-licensed Tablet PC. The Casio unit seems well designed for vertical markets, with a TFT screen suitable for use in sunlight, heavy shock absorption case, numeric keyboard, and a smaller form factor than most Tablets. Runs Windows, but 2000 not XP. 5 hrs battery, extendable to 10 hrs. All in all, a nice unit, well designed for a business with large numbers of employees running around all day delivering, pickups, recording data, etc. Hope they sell a lot more than 20K of them.
regards, wsh
Fred, you beat me posting Toshiba's UltraPC
I find this a very significant development, as apparently Toshiba is investing heavily in Tablet PCs of various form factors, and operating systems. I sure wish TSMC would get production ramped quickly, as the foundry seems to be the bottleneck at this point. wsh
May 13, 2002
Ultrapersonal PCs: You Gotta Get One
By John Taschek
Lately, PCs have failed to elicit that "you gotta have it" feeling. Intel has been trying its hardest to rev performance and drop prices. The Pentium 4 is now at 2.53GHz, and processors are still on target to reach 10GHz in five years or so. Apple and some PC vendors strike up colors and form-factor variations, all to no avail. Faster and better-looking machines, after all, are luxuries.
In the late 1990s, hordes of PDAs started popping up in people's pockets, although even that furor seems to have cooled. That leaves only cell phones (or, more likely, bargain-basement calling plans) and MP3 players to brighten users' days.
There lurks, however, a new form factor that is eventually going to supplant slim-line notebooks—the so-called ultrapersonal computers, or tablet PCs.
Like most, I was extremely skeptical of such devices, until I saw some reference samples from Microsoft. Last month, I wrote a column about Microsoft's tablet PC (see www.eweek.com/links) and how we will probably see some acceptance of it next year at the earliest. Then I received a Toshiba ultraportable prototype. The funny thing is that this Toshiba weighs about a pound, has a 6.5-inch touch-screen, and is running Transmeta's Crusoe and Linux. It's the ultimate renegade computer. And Toshiba said I ain't seen nothin' yet. Now the engineers are slimming the prototype, shining it up and loading it with features. Toshiba said these units will cost about $1,000 and have an 8-hour battery life. The battery life on my old Compaq was 2 hours, tops.
Toshiba says it's targeting vertical markets. The nameless unit I had, for example, was made for the financial community. Other units will have different-size screens, a different operating system (Windows XP Tablet Edition) and different features.
Toshiba is not saying when these units will ship or even if they're part of the company's slim-line Portégé brand. But the one I have is completely functional (with the exception of the built-in wireless capability).
Meanwhile, OQO—a company founded by ex-Apple-ites—is coming out with some interesting ultrapersonal computers as well. If these things don't generate some buzz, nothing will.
Why use a notebook when these things have everything?
Hi knowjack, glad that you joined us. Please don't put any faith in my numbers, they are just a guess.
To directly answer your question, I don't know of any way to know TSMC's production of Crusoes. Neither TMTA nor TSMC release such info. In January at the CC, Murray G indicated that the TSMC ramp up would be to a capacity to produce 10,000 chips per week and eventually tens of thousands per week. (At least that is my recollection of what he said in answer to a Q from an analyst). Recent info from TSMC seems to suggest that their high end foundry has been slow in its ramp up, nonetheless, that they were committed to such production, and that they were greatly increasing cap-ex, in part to increase production of 300mm wafers and .13 micron chips. I interpret all of this to indicate that we are still a few months away from producing 10,000 chips per week. I guestimated a present capacity of 5,000 per week working back from the revenue guidance of 2Q (around $6.5mil), an ave selling price (asp) of $100, and that in the latest 10Q TMTA indicates that virtually all sales at present comes from sale of Crusoes.
regards, wsh
BB, thanks for the link attesting to the popularity of the Sony Vaio U. I know I will not be happy until TSMC finally gets production levels to the 10,000s of chips per week that Murray promised back in the Jan CC. My guess is that at present TSMC is producing around 5,000 Crusoes per week. Frustrating, as I suspect we could be taking a lot more orders than we are right now. Earthquakes, drought, production delays ... as Rosanne Rosannadana used to say, IT'S ALWAYS SUMTHIN'.
"Sony U best bet for 2nd Crusoe Best of show!" Good choice, but my money is on the Sony "OQO" system.
regards, wsh
Augmented reality wearables - future win for Crusoe?
Interesting article on research on "augmented reality" wearable computer systems.
http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/3252101.htm
Wearable computers will enhance the world we see
NEW YORK (AP) - Step outside and look at the world. In Manhattan, you'll see a cityscape of buildings and traffic. If you're a firefighter, a police sharpshooter or a tourist hankering for Chinese food, you'd want to add information to that streetscape.
Soon you'll have that option -- without opening a map or guidebook.
An emerging technology known as ``augmented reality' will allow people peering through computer-fueled goggles to overlay virtual images atop those of the real world.
For a firefighter, the computer-aided streetscape might show locations of stored chemicals and sprinkler connections -- vital details in a fire. For the cop, the goggles could relay aerial surveillance images of a berserk gunman, helping the officer to get a bead on the bad guy. For the tourist, the glasses might show a virtual arrow and neon message reading ``Joe's Shanghai, turn right, walk three blocks.'
For now, augmented reality -- a clever amalgam of computing, Global Positioning System navigation and a device that tracks a person's head movement -- lives mainly in the cluttered realm of university research labs.
The systems are supposed to first determine the user's exact location and field of vision. Then, depending on the program running on the hard drive, the computer augments the scene with images -- a yellow building label for the firefighter, a blinking red dot for the sharpshooter, a cafe's menu for the tourist.
Researchers at Columbia University are fashioning some of the innovations. There, users can strap on a backpack frame bristling with 25 pounds of antennas, batteries and computing gear and take a tour of the upper Manhattan campus.
Instead of seeing only the university's Greek revival halls and tree-draped plazas, the computer goggles superimpose images of long-demolished Victorian buildings that housed an insane asylum predating the school. Building name tags pop up and disappear when you turn your head to gaze around the campus.
The project, created by Columbia's schools of computer science and journalism, has a more pressing purpose than mere campus orientation.
The lead federal agency funding this is the U.S. Navy's Office of Naval Research, which is spending $2.5 million a year on augmented reality research.
Spurred by the deaths of U.S. soldiers in Somalia in 1993, the Navy wants scientists to develop a belt buckle-sized computer and slim pairs of computer glasses to help the Marines fight better in cities.
The Navy is also developing a version for amphibious landing craft that aims to guide invasion forces through minefields, fog and other hazards.
In Singapore, developers are building an augmented reality system for a military defense of that city-state. And in Britain, researchers want to use it to ``see' buried pipelines during construction projects.
Other research projects under way across the United States and elsewhere aim to use augmented reality to aid everything from
surgery to jet engine repair.
Columbia computer science professor Steven Feiner, who gets about $150,000 per year of the Navy's funding, is developing the visual interfaces seen by wearers of the computer goggles. The clunky backpack system built by Feiner and his students is cobbled together from a laptop computer and a pair of GPS satellite receivers -- one developed by the Russian military -- along with a head tracking device, a high-speed wireless Internet connection and a tiny video camera.
When the wearer's location tells the computer to augment the scene with an image, it pops up on a pair of Sony goggles with a see-through liquid crystal computer display.
``We are not implying that someone should walk around with something that weighs even half of this,' Feiner said, giving a tour of his lab, with mannequin heads scattered among computer parts and workstations. ``Being able to look at stuff, and seeing information in context with that stuff, that's what it's all about.'
Augmented reality should be ready for consumer use in a decade or so, Feiner said.
First, U.S. soldiers will be trying it on for size.
One impetus for the Office of Naval Research's Battlefield Augmented Reality System, known as BARS, was the 1993 battle of Mogadishu, where 18 Americans -- and hundreds of Somalis -- died in fierce urban combat.
A three-dimensional cityscape is one of the most treacherous battlefields, laced by tunnels and sewers from below and buildings from above, with clutter and traffic on the street level. Enemy forces can be tough to distinguish from friendly ones. Snipers and mines could be anywhere.
In the Mogadishu battle, U.S. soldiers on a critical rescue mission got lost in the city's sandy alleys because street signs had been taken down.
In future city battles, U.S. soldiers with augmented reality viewers will see labels on buildings and streets and also active details, like areas of sniper fire and locations of friendly forces, said Lawrence Rosenblum, director of virtual reality research and systems at Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, D.C.
``All of a sudden he can be really involved in what's happening, and know what's going on around him,' Rosenblum said. ``We're taking that information, giving it to him in a way that's never been done before. That's got to make him better.'
Tiscali reviews OQO's UltraPC
http://www.tiscali.co.uk/technology/reviews/oqo.html
Tiscali Rating: 9 of 10
OQO - Handheld computer
KEY FEATURES:
1 GHz processor, 10GB hard drive, 256MB memory, high-resolution super bright VGA colour LCD screen, bluetooth
VERDICT
The size of the OQO is truly amazing. The processing and storage power harnessed inside this tiny box really makes you think what on earth is inside your desktop PC. We can't wait to get hold of one in the office to put it to the full test.
The review
The OQO really does fit in the palm of your hand and it is more powerful than most desktop computers. Advances in the past few years have allowed computer components to be made ever smaller. What really separates the OQO from other handhelds like the Palm and Ipaq is that it is not trying to be a high-tech organiser.
The specification of the OQO including 1GHz processor, 10GB hard drive and 256MB of memory allows it to carry out all the functions of a normal PC.
San Francisco company was formed in 1999 and relies heavily on the expertise already gathered from Transmeta, that manufactures computer processors.
The OQO has been designed so that it can easily adapt from being an office or home PC to one that you can easily take around the world. As a standalone device the OQO can easily fit in a shirt pocket and using the touch screen can be used like a PDA. When you insert the computer into a docking bay it becomes a notebook PC. When placed in a cradle with a standard monitor and keyboard, it functions as a desktop PC.
When can I buy one?
The miniature device runs on leading OS Microsoft Windows XP and with bluetooth and wireless connections makes it easy to connect to devices like printers and other PCs.
OQO PCs are expected to be in the shops in the second half of 2002, priced around ££700.
I "rode my thumb" from Boston to Los Angeles in 1947 (and from Los Angeles back to New York a month or so later)."
Fred, that must have been a great time to be young, footloose, and touring the country, what with an enormous post-war euphoria and a "can-do" feeling by Americans in all walks of life. The interstate network had not as yet been built, so I assume you traveled Main Street of a lot of towns from coast to coast. Good memories, I bet. Did you get your kicks on Route 66?
regards, wsh
Bird, Sony U appeals to Japan's "Thumb Tribe"
Interesting read from the Observer a few months back. I would think Japan's Thumb Tribe is ripe for a device like the Sony Vaio U. If they can thumb out long messages (and lots of them) on a cell phone all day long, the keyboard of the U must be heaven. Fred, I better start my thumb exercises now, as I don't think I am ready for this brave new world. Wasn't there a sci-fi book some time back postulating that by the year 3535 we would have virtually useless thumbs. Perhaps the reality is that by then we will have shorter stiffer fingers and a longer more dexterious thumb.
regards, wsh
http://www.observer.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,6903,673103,00.html
Thumbs are the new fingers for the GameBoy generation
Amelia Hill
Sunday March 24, 2002
The Observer
Use of hand-held technologies, such as mobile phones, GameBoys and computers, has caused a physical mutation in the under-25s, according to new research.
The study, carried out in nine cities around the world, shows that the thumbs of the younger generation have overtaken their fingers as the hand's most muscled and dexterous digit.
The change affects those who have grown up with hand-held devices capable of text messaging, emailing and accessing internet services. Experts claim it proves technology is causing physical alterations that previously happened over generations.
'The relationship between technology and the users of technology is mutual: we are changing each other,' said Dr Sadie Plant, author of the study and founder of the Cybernetic Culture Research Unit at Warwick University. 'The fact that our thumbs operate differently from our fingers is one of the main things that defines us as humans. Discovering that the younger generation has taken to using thumbs in a completely different way and are instinctively using it where the rest of us use our index fingers is particularly interesting.'
Plant, who has written three books on the social impact of technology, spent six months collecting data on hundreds of mobile phone users in the world's largest cities, including London, Beijing, Chicago and Tokyo.
She noted how, while those less accustomed to mobile phones used one or several fingers to access the keypad, younger people used both thumbs ambidextrously, barely looking at the keys as they made rapid entries.
'They used the absolute minimal movement,' she said. 'Simply exerting pressure with the thumb rather than tapping at the phone.
'There are many ways to input information into these devices, but for some reason kids under 25 most often choose to use their thumbs over any other digit. There is no question that choice is having a clear effect on their physicality: thumbs are the new fingers.'
In Japan, the trend was particularly marked. Plant even found the under-25s referred to themselves as oya yubi sedai - the thumb generation, or thumb tribe.
As their thumbs become stronger and more dexterous, Plant found that the thumb tribe is using its favourite digit for other tasks that are traditionally the finger's job, such as pointing at things or ringing doorbells.
'The mobile is fast becoming an essential prop in the social life of 20-year-olds,' she said. 'It has even become part of their mating display, with young men trying to impress women with the advanced technology of their phones.'
Another Article on OQO. It also provides some information on INTC's plans for small devices and something called a Personal Server. The article hints that TMTA was more involved in the design of the UltraPC than commonly thought.
http://www.channelsupersearch.com/news/crn/34811.asp
Modular System Puts Desktop Power In PDA Form Factor
By Kristen Kenedy
CRN
Seattle - 7:02 PM EST Fri., Apr. 19, 2002
Executives at start-up OQO used Microsoft's Windows Hardware Engineering Conference this week to unveil a new form factor called the Ultra-Personal Computer.
The new moniker is in reference to the design of the device, which boasts the power of a desktop computer in a PDA form factor. The device, developed by former Apple engineers, is not only small and powerful, but also convertible.
It can be used as is with a its touch-screen monitor. Or with optional attachments, it can be connected to a monitor, keyboard and mouse and used like a desktop computer. It also can be slipped into a "notebook shell," which contains a notebook-style keyboard and screen with open bays for the Ultra-Personal PC and additional drives and batteries.
Without its options, the device weighs less than 9 ounces and measures 4.9 x 2.9 x 0.9 inches. It comes standard with a VGA color touch screen, 1GHz Crusoe processor, 256 Mbytes of RAM, a 10-Gbyte hard drive minimum, 3-D graphics and audio. In addition to the proprietary expansion connection, it includes Firewire, USB, 802.11b wireless and Bluetooth wireless. The company claims the device can run for about 8 hours before the battery needs to be recharged.
"This is a fully functional XP computer," said Colin Hunter, executive vice president of OQO and a co-founder of Transmeta, which produces the Crusoe processor. "We've thrown in everything."
OQO also has the capabilities to add 2.5G wireless support into the device and is working with manufacturers of fold-up keyboards to ensure there will be a portable keyboard available at launch, Collins said. The unit is expected to go on sale by the end of the year for $1,000 to $1,200, he said.
OQO isn't the only company talking about the idea of a powerful computer that could be carried around in a shirt pocket or briefcase. Intel has been showing off its concept design of the Personal Server, a device about the length and width of a credit card and depth of a deck of cards. It could have enough internal storage to carry all of a user's personal information and data as well as applications.
Unlike the Ultra-Personal PC, Intel's Personal Server would not include an integrated screen. Instead, it would wirelessly connect to any available display,either that of a user's PDA, a kiosk or a personal or office PC.
"This device connects through a very short wireless link," said Roy Want, principal engineer, Intel Research. "One of the cool things is you don't have to touch that device. There doesn't have to be any inherent UI on that link."
Intel also has been showing off a number of modular notebook concepts. Some would build in a small display on the outside of a notebook so that it could broadcast appointment reminders or messages. Another contains modular pieces that can snap out: one includes a snap-in PDA and another a snap-in wireless mouse/notebook trackpad.
Like its competitor Transmeta, Intel won't be manufacturing these devices. The companies are putting together reference designs that manufacturers can use to develop future products based on their respective chips.
For initial sales of its device, OQO is targeting top-tier consumer electronics companies. Collins said OQO is hoping to OEM the product but also keep the OQO brand in the products' names. The device also will be sold directly on the company's Web site, he said.
Based in San Francisco, OQO was founded in 1999 by several members of the team that created the Apple Titanium Powerbook.
That's a great point, Bird, and an unique advantage for the Crusoe chip with code morphing software, CMS. To further develop this point, I don't think it is well known that TMTA has made significant performance improvements in the Crusoes simply by improving CMS through minimizing the latency problem with software over hardware.
Improvements to CMS will continue, and chips may be upgraded from time to time to squeeze more performance out of the chips and eliminate incompatabilities that develop over time with OS and application software.
A lot of the perception which exists that Crusoe's are "lame" traces back to early versions of CMS and, in particular, delays in running applications under older versions of Windows. I think the doubters would be surprised to see how well the current TM5800 runs apps, particularly on battery power.
regards, wsh
regards, wsh
Fred, I greatly appreciate your comments.
As I think you do also, I frequent the Yahoo board on a fairly regular basis and enjoy posts from a number of regulars, including lojjm. (I also have quite a number on my ignore list). I had not previously been tempted to transfer only an opinion from one board to another, but I thought loggm's evaluation of the current state of TMTA,as a security,was excellent and worthy of wide distribution. I must say that I did ponder whether it was excellent because it was, or because I so agreed with it!
BTW, I find it surprising that lojjm's post only received three recommendations, mine being one of them.
regards, wsh
Detailed photos of Sony Vaio PCG-U1
http://shop.conics.net/sony-vu/pics-u1.html
regards, wsh
Great post by lojjm of Yahoo Board. Hope he does not mind a republication on ihub:
I think when Transmeta missed with their production problems and their surprise (to say the least) drop in revenues, right about the time Intel began trumpeting its own "mobile" chips in earnest, many (almost all I think) of the investors watching TMTA simply turned away and turned away with great conviction.
It's rational to expect there to be a "hair trigger" in the minds of investors watching an underling going up against a giant, heavily-entrenched, near-monopolist, when the underling stumbles badly (and worse appears to mislead). I believe the investing community simply has turned it's back on TMTA and is really hardly watching anymore. Not many people have felt it important enough yet to focus closely on the technological issues that are the ONLY reasons to be confident about TMTA. The facts on the ground and in the marketplace will have to change in an extremely noticeable way before people come around to supporting the company again. Investors' attention will have to be grabbed from them; they're not paying attention otherwise.
The steady decline in TMTA's share price on desultory volume over the last few months is simply, IMO, continuing confirmation that TMTA has not had the high profile successes needed to re-attract high volume buying interest.
TMTA's policy of secrecy and of leaving it to their OEM's to promote their Crusoe-based products has done nothing to fill in the void of public interest in the company. But I'm optimistic this will change soon as the OEM's now finally have competitive (even superior) products coming to the marketplace to compete with Intel-based notebooks. The OEM's may now be heard from, really for the first time, on behalf of TMTA.
I'm hoping that the Japanese OEM's will make an aggressive move into the U.S. market soon, on the strength of advertising and marketing that you would think would necessarily involve much bragging about the unique advantages of the Crusoe; after all: (1) the superior Japanese mobile PC's speak for themselves, and (2) how else do you dissuade consumers from continued, mindless herding behind that ubiquitous "Intel Inside" sticker. What an irony to need the Japanese so badly to come over and persuade Americans to buy great new American technology from them! But I think that's where we are in the near term.
This next year will be an extremely interesting time to watch this company. Transmeta seems poised for a lot of important "firsts" in its young history. And depending on how those "firsts" develop, there may be larger and larger numbers of companies and investors with an interest in attracting a lot of attention over to Transmeta.
I think the comparison made by another poster between Honda/Toyota vs. General Motors in the 1970's, and Transmeta vs. Intel/AMD now, is a very apt one. I believe the plainly inadequate notebook offerings recently by Dell and Gateway are to the Fujitsu Lifebook now what the Ford LTD and Chevy Chevette were to the Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla back then. There are very serious inroads to be made IMO by the Japanese makers of Crusoe-based mobile PC's, if they just come over and compete for American consumers who are more than ready to comparison shop before making a $2,000 investment in a computer. They'll be no more inclined to buy comparatively inadequate mobile Pentiums now than they were inclined to buy American gas-guzzlers and shoddily-made American cars with built-in obsolescence back then.
But there is SO MUCH Intel advertising and marketplace momentum to be overcome! I have no illusions about the challenges that lay ahead, and neither, until further notice, does the market.
My two cents.
lojjm
Great video, thanks BB and thanks to blackjaro2002 of Yahoo board for the link.
BB, in reading the rough translation from Japanese, it appears that the TabletPC was a Microsoft prototype. Note that the text seems to indicate that MSFT foresees the TabletPC being offered in an alternative,small-size form factor, along lines of OQO. Interesting.
Like this quote from Colin Hunter: "An ultra personal computer will change PC industry, as the cellular phone changed the communication industry." Wonder if Colin Hunter was in Japan for meetings with potential licensees of the OQO technology.
Know this is old news for most on the board, but C Hunter was a co-founder of TMTA with D Ditzel.
regards, wsh
New NEC machine cuts down the noise
By John G. Spooner
Special to ZDNet News
May 8, 2002, 12:40 PM PT
URL: http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1103-903184.html
NEC this week began taking orders on a new, all-in-one, compact PC for the Japanese market that the company says eliminates disruptive fan noise.
Teaming with chipmaker Transmeta, NEC says its new NEC Mate incorporates a Crusoe TM5800 processor, a notebook chip. Thus, the new machine is smaller, uses less power, and operates more quietly than other desktop machines--it's so quiet, the company says, that the only noise it makes sounds like rustling leaves.
Because of space constraints in Japanese offices, which place workers into much closer proximity than in typical North American offices, many Japanese companies seek out all-in-one-style compact desktops or ultra-portable notebooks. The fad toward smaller machines is slowly catching on in the United States as well; many analysts attribute growing notebook sales to the rise in smaller yet more powerful machines.
Though many PC makers have made efforts to reduce desktop noise, most machines typically use at least one fan, which can produce a distinctive whirring noise while cooling the PC. The NEC Mate bypasses fans by adopting two pieces of technology--the Crusoe processor and an external power supply--both originally designed for notebooks. By using the low-power chip, NEC eliminates the need for a fan to cool the processor. An external power supply, such as those found with notebook PCs or the discontinued Cube computer from Apple, eliminates the need for another fan.
The new computer will offer Crusoe TM5800 chips at clock speeds as high as 900MHz. So far, NEC is the only PC maker to incorporate a 900MHz Transmeta chip in products. Most PC makers using Transmeta chips, such as Sony, are shipping its 800MHz TM5800 in notebook PCs.
Transmeta faced delays in moving the 800MHz chip into high-volume production at the end of 2001, causing problems with some customers. Sony was forced to push back product introductions, and Toshiba had to cancel products outright. However, the company has since said that the chip is back on track.
The NEC Mate compact desktop also offers Japanese consumers a 15-inch screen. Although 15-inch and 16-inch screens are commonplace in notebooks sold in the United States, most business notebooks in Japan often come with 12.1-inch or smaller displays. Most workers "want to have a bigger display," said Shin Wada, director of Transmeta's Japanese office in Tokyo. NEC could not be reached for comment.
The entry-level Mate will pair either a 880MHz or 900MHz Crusoe processor and 15-inch, flat-panel display with 128MB of RAM, a 20GB hard drive and a CD-ROM drive. The notebooks will sell for around $2,000.
NEC Solutions America, the company's North American arm, hasn't announced plans to bring the Mate or a compact desktop like it with a Crusoe chip to North America. NEC does offer Crusoe-based notebooks and similar all-in-one PCs with Intel chips in the United States, however. The company's PowerMate 2000, for example, offers an integrated, 15-inch screen along with a 933MHz or 1GHz Pentium III chip from Intel, with 128MB of RAM and a 30GB hard drive. It also sells the Versa UltraLite, a 3.3-pound notebook with a 600MHz Crusoe TM5600 chip.
Sorry for the acronym, JAK. They aren't much help if not understood. MOMA is the Museum of Modern Art in NYC. The museum commonly puts on display elegant examples of modern industrial design. I would think the i-mac would be strong candidate.
BTW, welcome to the board.
regards, wsh
JAK, is the i-mac the new minimalist Apple where the base is a half-sphere with an LCD extending on an arm from the center? That is an elegant design, suitable for display in MOMA. I really know nothing of Apples, does that unit have a fan?
Thanks, letsroll, for the link. Is that a Centronics parallel printer connector on the side of the monitor? Stange place for it if it is.
The NEC machine may point to a new specie of desktop PC; a silent, extremely small footprint fully-functional desktop. Prior efforts at all-in-one desktops suffered from the problem of a noisy fan next to the user. That wouldn't be a problem with such a device, and they could be deployed in spaces not previously available for PCs. One would give up expandability, but that is increasingly becoming less and less important.
More innovation from Japan facilitated by Crusoe. Will US OEMs answer the bell?
regards, wsh
New NEC with 900MHz Crusoe
http://www.nec.co.jp/press/ja/0205/0801.html
Interesting find by tmta500 from Yahoo board.
PR is in Japanese, but it appears to be a sleak very small form factor desktop. Note the fact that the TM5800 can now be rated at 900MHz. Very good evidence that TSMC is mastering the art of producing Crusoe chips at .13 micron.
regards, wsh
Perhaps I should add that I doubt Tablet PCs will be all that the Chief Software Architect (CSA?) envisions. I see lots of uses in vertical markets, but little penetration into horizontal markets (for home, office, small office).
My guess is that the OQO/Metapad designs will be everything and more envisioned for the Tablet PC. The good news is that XP for Tablet PCs will greatly extend the capabilities of the OQO type devices, when the OS becomes available.
Good articles:
http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/16960.html
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/business/3088655.htm
regards, wsh
Stinky, I'll try to answer your questions. BTW, welcome to the board.
Bird and I discussed such issues in recent months. My feeling is that the TM5800 is the ideal chip for Tablet PCs. The only INTC chip that makes much sense in a Tablet PC is the PIII-M 700MHz ULV. I would be concerned that the other mobile PIIIs would generate too much heat. A hotter chip placed under a large LCD in a small, fanless enclosure would produce quite a hot box. This would seem inappropriate for a hand-held device.
However, the 700MHz is real slow on battery power. The 700MHz steps down to 300(!)MHz. (Glanta, maybe this is the chip to parade in front of the FTC. The chip is a joke). The next chip up in INTC's line is the 733 MHz. It runs hotter, and "only" steps down to 466 MHz.
For brevity, I deleted some portions of the PC Mag article, which discussed a few Tablet PCs. You will see that a number of them use INTC chips, however, none of the units meet MSFT's requirements for 6 hrs of battery life.
I think XP would work ok on 300MHz, so long as you had enough ram.
regards, wsh
Is There a Tablet in Your Future?
http://www.pcmag.com/print_article/0,3048,a=25076,00.asp
May 7, 2002
By Mary Kathleen Flynn
Most businesspeople spend a great deal of time away from their workspaces. Juggling business trips, formal meetings, and casual confabs with coworkers, people never seem to be at their desks;or at their computers. Although lots of folks carry their PDAs with them, most don't take laptops wherever they go.
Microsoft hopes to change all that in the second half of this year, when it introduces its Windows XP Tablet operating system. Microsoft has long touted the tablet PC as the computer that is so convenient and natural to use, you'll rarely be without it. And thanks to several hardware manufacturers' support, Microsoft will soon test its theory.
At about 3 pounds, the size of current ultraportables, and with the dimensions of a legal pad, the upcoming machines are full-powered, full-featured tablet PCs that combine the portability of the notebook with the flexibility of paper and pen and run a superset of Windows XP.
Although the concept of a tablet PC is not new;the first iteration was seen over 30 years ago with the Rand Tablet; current advances in technology, materials, and consumer acceptance of portable computing are setting the stage for a different outcome. Most significant, though, is Microsoft's unwavering belief in the tablet PC, so strong that the company has developed an entire OS with it in mind: Microsoft Windows XP Tablet PC Edition will run Windows-based applications, intertwining inking and handwriting recognition throughout.
The new platform already has a solid following from hardware makers, such as Acer, Compaq, Fujitsu, NEC, Tatung, Toshiba, ViewSonic, and newcomer PAD Products, founded by former Dell executives, who are building a company around the new platform. Many software developers, including Adobe and AutoDesk, will extend their applications to take advantage of the tablet PC 's unique capabilities.
Tablet PCs come in different shapes and sizes: traditional notebooks with pen overlays; convertibles, such as the Acer product reviewed here (in which the screen swivels 180 degrees and folds down on top of the keyboard); desktop PCs with detachable LCD screens that can become standalone tablets; and wireless portfolio tablets that you can connect a keyboard to.
Pricing is still a bit murky, in part because Microsoft has not yet determined what to charge manufacturers for Windows XP Tablet PC Edition: Rumors put the price at anywhere from $25 to $50 on top of what Windows XP already costs companies. Most PC manufacturers expect the upcoming tablet PCs to be priced comparably with ultraportables or perhaps slightly higher.
Some Naysayers
Not everyone has penned in Microsoft's vision. Dell, Gateway, Hewlett-Packard, and IBM are notably absent from the list of supporters, saying they don't see enough customer demand for a mainstream pen computer.
Hewlett-Packard, which has been demonstrating a concept pen-based computer, is taking a wait-and-see approach. Lara Kahler, worldwide product marketing manager for HP's mobile computing division, says, "Have we discovered a mainstream need? The answer is, not at this stage."
Perhaps the most high-profile skeptic is Dell chairman Michael Dell. At an industry party at Comdex, he reminded his audience of the lack of customers for the "pen PC phenomenon about ten years ago." Indeed, many companies, including Apple, EO, Go, Momenta, and even Microsoft, have failed to find a broad audience for pen computers in the past. Even in 2002 we saw failure: In February, IBM stopped manufacturing its pricey pen-based ThinkPad TransNote, and in January, Sony pulled the plug on its VAIO SlimTop Pen Tablet, a desktop design.
What Will It Take?
Times have changed. Many of the early pen products "were ahead of their time, counting on technology that wasn't mature or hadn't been marketed widely," insists Microsoft's Leland Rockoff, director of business development and marketing for the tablet PC. But supporters say that this year, the timing is right.
Powerful low-powered processors, like the ultra-low-voltage Mobile Intel Pentium III Processor-M line of chips and the Transmeta low-powered Crusoe line (including the Crusoe TM5800 chip), are the key to keeping thermals down;a problem that has long plagued small computing devices. High-resolution XGA displays have improved screen views in smaller dimensions. And longer-life, lighter-weight batteries now on the market can last more than 6 hours. Also, space-saving, higher-capacity, 1.8-inch 20GB hard drives take up less internal real estate.
Eventual widespread acceptance of wireless communications;whether 802.11a, b, or g, or even 3G;will further propel the adoption of tablet PCs. The other important factor is better handwriting recognition. Microsoft chose to develop inking technology, based on millions of handwriting samples collected from around the world, to develop its recognition software, a more sophisticated version of the technology used in the Pocket PC OS.
What Lies Within
Microsoft's Rockoff describes the new Windows XP Tablet operating system as "a superset of Windows XP with extensions for inking, direct manipulation, speech input, handwriting recognition, and a Windows Journal utility;a digital notebook with an infinite supply of paper."
The new operating system treats handwritten material, such as scrawled notes or sketched diagrams, as a data type, or ink. "Just as text is a data type, the ink data is contained inside of an application's file," says Ira Snyder, product unit manager of Microsoft's Tablet PC team. "For example, adding ink to Word, the native ink is stored in the DOC or RTF." Depending on what you write, ink saved as a bitmap is four to ten times the size of text, says Snyder.
The OS also translates handwritten words into text. The text notes can be searched and organized into folders. Users can annotate files, such as Word documents, Excel spreadsheets, and AutoCAD drawings, with handwritten words and drawings.
When we tried out features in the beta OS, we thought the writing felt pretty natural. The lasso feature, which highlights words, was a bit clumsy. Using the digitizer pen, you lasso the words you need highlighted, and when the words change to shadow letters, you can apply different attributes to them.
The program is still being tweaked, however. The handwriting recognition capability wasn't bad when we tried it out, but since the software doesn't learn personal writing nuances, we're wondering how intuitive it would be with, let's say, a doctor's chicken scratches. You can add words to the dictionary, which aids the program's comprehension.
Corridor Cruisers
Tablet PCs are targeted at "corridor cruisers," who conduct much of their business in both formal meetings and informal spur-of-the-moment discussions in hallways, cubicles, and offices. Tablet PCs would let these users take handwritten notes and make simple drawings, such as copies of charts drawn on whiteboards. "People will easily be able to transfer key pieces of information into e-mail, search across handwritten ink, find key points they've written down, and index, sort, and organize their notes," explains Rockoff.
Various tablet PC supporters are eager to integrate digital inking into their collaboration tools. WebEx, for example, is a company that sells a Web-based multimedia conferencing service. And Groove Networks makes decentralized software for secure business collaboration (Microsoft has invested $51 million in it).
The tablet PC could also fulfill the promise of electronic books. Zinio Systems, which sells digital versions of print publications (including PC Magazine), is supporting the tablet PC "because it lets us do things graphically that haven't existed in a $249 dedicated e-book device," explains Kevin McCurdy, Zinio's founder and CEO "The tablet PC lets people read magazines the way they're used to reading them, in a couch or in a chair, in the bathroom, in the bedroom, wherever."
Small Slice
When he showed off the first prototypes of the tablet PC at last fall's Comdex, Microsoft chairman Bill Gates said, "The tablet takes cutting-edge PC technology and makes it available wherever you want it, which is why I'm already using a tablet as my everyday computer." Within five years, he predicted, "it will be the most popular form of PC sold in America."
Despite the positive outlook, nobody is expecting the tablet PC to be a smash hit overnight. Alan Promisel, a notebook market analyst at IDC, predicts a slow ramp-up for tablet PCs. "By mid-2003, tablet PCs might have 1 percent of the total market," says Promisel. "By mid-2004, they might have 3 to 5 percent. Three to five years down the line, there's potential."
Rockoff agrees it will take time. "We want folks to see the tablet PC and find it a compelling solution that's the wave of the future." For those who remember the high hopes of past pen-pushing executives, it's a future that's been a long time coming.
<snip>
PC Magazine Editors' Checklist for the Ultimate Tablet
At least 6 hours of battery life
Weighs less than 2 pounds
Two USB 2.0 ports (for a legacy-free device: no
floppy disk controller; no parallel, serial,
PS/2, or game ports)
Connectivity; Wireless: integrated 802.11b/a dual
antennas; Built-in Ethernet; Built-in 56K modem
Very low-power CPU (such as the Intel ULV Pentium
III-M or Transmeta Crusoe)
Low-power graphics controller
Low-power 20GB hard drive
Low-power 10-inch screen
Automatic hardware screen rotation (with a Lock
button on the casing to lock the rotation mode)
Ambient-light sensor for automatic screen dimming
A hardware Suspend button for quick suspension
(unit must last 72 hours in suspend mode)
Must wake from sleep (S3 power mode) in less than
2 seconds
Passive cooling; no fans
Low case temperature (so you can cradle the tablet
in your arm)
Fully loaded docking station (with an optical drive,
an array of ports, and a wireless keyboard)
P-2040s back at Best Buy
http://www.bestbuy.com/detail.asp?e=11120272&m=488&cat=494&scat=495
Fujitsu P-2040s listed as in stock at bestbuy.com. It also indicates that the laptops are also available for pickup at "most stores." Thanks to stinky45368 at the Yahoo board for this tip.
Imagine Best Buy had a successful trial and decided to place a big order with Fujitsu. At the Fujitsu site the P-2040s are available for almost immediate delivery. More datapoints that TSMC is cranking out the TM5800s.
regards, wsh
Steak, great article from Dow Jones.
Did Brian Alger disclose a little insider info in the article?
" . . Tablet PC has power requirements that right now only Transmeta can meet."
AND
" . . . Compaq's Tablet PC is being manufactured in Korea and right now it's believed to have a Transmeta Crusoe processor in it," said Alger.
The forum has speculated along these lines, but it sure is great to have confirmation by someone as close to TMTA as Brian Alger. Does this mean that until Banias (and maybe after Banias), TMTA owns the Tablet PC market? If we own the Tablet PC market we surely own the UltraPC market and should be the chip of first choice in the ultra light/compact laptop market. Pleasant thoughts on such a dismal day.
Regards, wsh
gl, thanks for the kind words.
I have begun to examine OEM and retailer advertising and when I find no mention of Speedstep Speedrop I am sending another complaint to the FTC. So far, in a small sample, the only ad that mentioned Speedrop was HP.com. At their site there is a footnote after the P4-M, PIII-M references, which clarifies that the speed drops on battery power. HP does not say how much, however, in comparison to the other major US OEMs, HP is a fountain of disclosure.
If others were to self-police this matter by sending complaints to the FTC, we would see results.
regards, wsh
Glanta, I have not been able to follow your battles at fool.com, as I refuse to pay for access to the site, but I know you carried the Crusoe banner with distinction. If nothing else, I am quite sure that TMTA has become a lively topic on a number of Fool boards.
Been meaning to ask you, are you still long XYBR? I doubt the current management, but in the right hands the company would seem to be well positioned over the next 3,5 years. I never jumped in, but have watched the company for awhile. Would you agree that the OQO ultraPC is outside the XYBR patents but the IBM Metapad requires a license from XYBR?
regards, wsh
Fred, thanks for the memories. Funny how ad phrases can stay with us for 25 years but we cannot remember if that dentist appointment is next Wed or the week after.
Interesting article yesterday in the Silicon Valley newspaper, the Mercury News:
http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/3186486.htm
Posted on Thu, May. 02, 2002
`Buy-and-hold' stock strategy may be outdated, analysts say
By David A. Sylvester
Mercury News
During the past 20 years, one style of investing in the stock market has become such a sacred dogma that you probably know the litany by heart:
Buy stocks for the long-term, invest in a stock index fund, and hold the investment through ups and downs. Most of all, don't worry, because stocks always beat other investments, like bonds or cash, over many years.
Since the beginning of the bull market in 1982, this approach has been something of a financial miracle. There's nothing like a 650 percent rise in the Standard & Poor's 500 over two decades to convince the average investor that he or she will do best by investing broadly in the market.
There's only one problem: The buy and hold approach hasn't worked for two years.
Stock market index funds have plunged sharply and are down again so far this year. Bonds have far outperformed stocks, and even lowly money funds -- those that invest in short-term Treasury bills -- have produced a positive real return.
What's going on?
``This is a trader's market, not an investor's market,'' said Toni Turner, author and president of TrendStar Trading Group.
In fact, a growing number of stock market professionals are starting to question whether the buy-and-hold approach will work for a market that looks more like the see-saw trading market of the 1970s. If true, this could have a profound impact on the millions of new investors who entered the stock market during the bull market. It could force them to revise their financial plans for everything from their children's college educations to their own retirement and financial security.
Old thinking challenged
Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer for Wells Capital Management, has noticed the shift in thinking and predicts investors will need to change their approach to make a profit from stocks in the new market. In April, Paulsen devoted his entire economic newsletter to the change.
``The buy-and-hold mantra which has come to dominate the investment culture is being significantly challenged,'' he noted.
It's premature to cast aside the ``buy-and-hold'' strategy entirely, Paulsen thinks, but large institutional investors are more concerned about their low returns on stocks recently. Pension funds, for instance, calculate their payments to retirees based on stock market returns -- if those fall below expected levels, the funds start searching for ways to make up the difference.
And some of those ways revive the old techniques of ``market timing,'' the ability to buy and sell stocks based on a forecast of where prices are headed. Such an approach became popular during the up and down market from 1966 to 1982 when the Dow Jones industrials fluctuated between 700 and 1,000.
``When I started in this business in 1982, all the wisdom of Wall Street was about market timing,'' Paulsen said. ``No one was suggesting the way to make money was to buy and hold.''
To make money, successful investors had to adopt completely different rules from the buy-and-hold approach. They sold during the rallies, tried to guess the correct timing for entering and leaving stocks and chose stocks from the right industry sector -- all of which requires considerable sophistication and effort.
Buy-and-hold adherents maintain that history shows such active trading produces worse results than just riding with the index. According to research provided by the Vanguard Group, even during last year's bad market, 61 percent of the mutual funds holding large capitalized stocks lost even more than the S&P 500.
Brad Barber and Terence O'Dean, two finance professors at UC-Davis, studied the returns from actively managed funds compared to the S&P index from 1991 through 1996 and found the managed funds did worse as a whole than the index. Using data going back to 1962, they found actively managed funds had an average annual return of 12.4 percent, compared to 14 percent for the S&P 500.
``Basically when you trade, you're betting against other market participants,'' said Barber.
However, this data does show some periods when active funds did better than the index -- between 1976 and 1982 and between 1965 and 1968.
Buy-and-hold `a cop-out'
For their part, traders say the buy and hold approach is a simplistic formula marketed by the mutual fund industry.
``It's a cop-out,'' said Chris A. Farrell, president of the Farrell Preferred Stock Arbitrage hedge fund. ``People think that buy-and-hold is buy-and-ignore-it. Managing your money is like a job, and the market doesn't give money away. It takes time and effort.''
It is true that academic research supports the ``buy and hold'' approach over long stretches of time, like 20 years or more. Theoretically, investors would do well if they wait out market droughts like the one stretching from the late 1960s to the start of the bull market in 1982.
The problem, according to David Rahn, president of Avalon Capital in Port of Redwood City, is that few people behave like the mathematical model. ``It's a great argument, but it's not practical because no one can do it,'' he says.
He, too, remembers the 1970s and found many investors left the market entirely after suffering through 16 years of no gains.
``By 1981, you couldn't convince anyone to invest in stocks,'' he remembers.
There are plenty of signs this stock market has changed. The Standard & Poor's 500 is down 6 percent since the beginning of this year, meaning it has to rise more than this by the end of the year to avoid having a third losing year in a row. The last time that the S&P 500 declined three years in a row was during World War II, and before that, during the Great Depression.
With its recent decline, the market has now lost four years of its bull market gains. In fact, more time has now passed since the S&P hit a new high than at any point since the bull markets began in 1982.
Right now, among the S&P 500 stocks, the biggest and strongest American corporations, half are trading at the same prices of 1997, producing five years of no gain.
And that's why some may start looking for other ways to invest. Paulsen believes the stock market is like the 1970s trading market, but for different economic reasons. Instead of high inflation and rising interest rates, the economy is experiencing low inflation and declining interest rates.
This could keep corporate profits -- and stock prices -- from rising very much. In this world, investors might do better to invest in long-term, high quality bonds, international stocks that could rise as the dollar weakens and stocks that pay dividends to improve their yields.
No matter what, this new world of investing is not likely to be pay investors quite like he booming markets of the late 1990s. ``There's nothing to replace a bull market in terms of absolute returns,'' said Paulsen.
Bird, thanks for wading through the FTC site. You now know more of the doings of the FTC than 99.44% of the US public. What is that percentage from Fred? I have a hazy recollection that it was from ads for the purity of Ivory soap from years gone by. Wonder if every bar had that exact level or purity. If not, is it to late to file a complaint with the FTC?
Bird, you indicated "Intel OEM's should indeed publish the reduction in megahertz when in battery mode. Intel however, could hide behind the fact that these figures are published, despite the fact that only an expert with a magnifying glass could find them....well, slight exaggeration, but point made"
I certainly am not an expert in the area, but my understanding is that a reasonable consumer test is applied. Ie, an ad is objectionable if a reasonable consumer would be mislead by an advertiser's omissions or half-truths regarding information that the consumer would find important in reaching a purchasing decision. Consumers are not required to dig to find the other half of the truth.
Your point regarding the Energy Star is a great one, but, unfortunately, the Fujitsu P2040, the only TMTA-based product available in the US that I have seen, does not have the Energy Star sticker. This might be due to the fact that while the Crusoe is certificated, the product into which it is assembled may not be. Maybe the sticker could just mention that the Crusoe processor is Energy Star complaint.
As an aside, when filing a complaint online at the FTC website, one has to give name and address, including country. This was a little surprising for a US agency, but it does suggest that complaints are welcome from the UK.
regards, wsh
Copy of complaint filed today with FTC.
At www.dell.com, Dell advertises laptop computers with Intel PIII-M and P-4M processors. Dell's advertising at the site emphasizes the speed of the Intel processors, but does not disclose the very important fact that the rated speed "steps back" significantly when the laptop is used on battery power. For example, a 1.8 GHz P4-M will operate at 1.2GHz once it switches to battery power; a 1.2GHz PIII-M steps back to 800 MHz. All the Intel mobile chips behave with similar reductions on battery power, so as to conserve battery life. This happens automatically, once the computer realizes it is running on a lower voltage input. As a laptop is intended to be mobile, this reduction in speed should be disclosed. Advertising which only lists microprocessor speeds on AC power, in my opinion, are deceptive. You will note on the site that Dell has numerous disclaimers in fine print at the bottom of its ads, but nowhere is this important fact revealed.
It is also interesting to note that in a hyperlink at the Dell site entitled "Learn More About Processor Performance," the fact that the Intel processors run at a reduced speed while on battery power is not revealed.
For a better understanding of Intel's Enhanced Speedstep technology, see, http//support.intel.com/support/processors/mobile/pentium4/tti002.htm
All of today's microprocessors running Windows are mostly functionally equivalent. An Advanced Micro Devices chip will operate as well as an Intel chip, a Transmeta chip as well as an AMD chip. The manufacturers and their OEMs seek to differentiate between competing chips on clock speed. Allowing Dell and other Intel OEMs to advertise a half truth regarding processor speed unfairly promotes Intel at the expense of AMD and Transmeta. This acts as a particular disservice to Transmeta, as this company's chips operate at the rated speed regardless of whether or not the chip is on AC or battery power.
If anyone is so inclined, please note that complaints filed online with the FTC (at www.ftc.gov) are limited to 2000 characters.
regards, wsh
Intel Enhanced SpeedStep revealed, sort of
Here are links to INTC's site which describe the operation of Enhanced Speedstep on both the new PIII-Ms and the P-4Ms. With all the chips, pulling the plug drops the speed considerably. Eg, a 1.2 GHz PIII-M will immediately drop to 800 MHz; a 1.8 GHz P-4M will drop to 1.2 GHz. However, there appears to be a mechanism for manual override, although it seems like the user must affirmatively engage the override by following a series of steps which might be a PITA in practice. Anyone with any firsthand experience with this? It still seems to me that such a drastic reduction in speed, occuring automatically and by a user simply pulling a plug, should be disclosed in OEM advertising.
http://support.intel.com/support/processors/mobile/pentiumiii/tti004.htm
Mobile Pentium®® III Processors
Enhanced Intel®® SpeedStep™™ Technology
Intel®® Mobile Pentium®® III Processors with Intel®® SpeedStep™™ technology let you customize high performance computing on your mobile PC. When the notebook computer is connected to the AC outlet, the new mobile PC runs the most complex business and Internet applications with speed virtually identical to a desktop system. When powered by a battery, the processor drops to a lower frequency (by changing the bus ratios) and voltage, conserving battery life while maintaining a high level of performance. Manual override lets you boost the frequency back to the high frequency when on battery, allowing you to customize performance.
The two bus ratios are programmed into the processor and the GHI# signal controls which one is used. After reset, the processor will start in the lower of it two core frequencies, the "Battery Optimized" mode. An operating mode transitions to the high core frequency can be made by putting the processor into the Deep Sleep state raising the core voltage, setting GHI# low, and returning to the Normal state. This puts the processor into the "Maximum performance" mode. Transitioning back to the low core frequency can be made by reversing these steps.
http://support.intel.com/support/processors/mobile/pentium4/tti002.htm
Mobile Intel®® Pentium®® 4 Processors - M
Enhanced Intel®® SpeedStep™™ Technology
Mobile Intel®® Pentium®® 4 Processors - M supporting Enhanced Intel®® SpeedStep™™ technology let you customize high performance computing on your mobile PC. When the notebook computer is connected to the AC outlet, the new mobile PC runs the most complex business and Internet applications with speed virtually identical to a desktop system. When powered by a battery, the processor drops to a lower frequency (by changing the bus ratios) and voltage, conserving battery life while maintaining a high level of performance. Manual override lets you boost the frequency back to the high frequency when on battery, allowing you to customize performance.
The two bus ratios are programmed into the processor and the GHI# signal controls which one is used. After reset, the processor will start in the lower of it two core frequencies, the "Battery Optimized" mode. An operating mode transitions to the high core frequency can be made by putting the processor into the Deep Sleep state raising the core voltage, setting GHI# low, and returning to the Normal state. This puts the processor into the "Maximum performance" mode. Transitioning back to the low core frequency can be made by reversing these steps.
regards, wsh
More info on new Toshiba Libretto laptops
Steak, you gave us some info last week on these new Toshiba laptops, but this article may provide more info. My apologies if it is just a repeat. Hard to keep track these days of new offerings with TMTA chips. Not complaining, however.
This ultra light/small laptop market segment sure seems to be heating up fast, with Fujitsu, Sony and Toshiba offering very similar laptops. Perhaps Casio also. Suspect they all will be competing in the US and Euro markets soon. Can US OEMs be far behind?
http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,96363,00.asp
Toshiba Launches New Libretto Laptops
Two new sub-notebooks feature Windows XP, Crusoe chips, and wireless functionality.
Martyn Williams, IDG News Service
Thursday, April 25, 2002
Toshiba has unveiled two new models in its Libretto sub-notebook line.
Both are based on an 800-MHz version of the TM5800 Crusoe processor from Transmeta, have a 10-inch widescreen TFT-LCD capable of 1,280 by 600 pixel resolution, 256MB of main memory, a 20GB hard-disk drive, ATI Technologies' Mobility Radeon M graphics accelerator, an Ethernet port, and slot for Toshiba's Secure Digital memory card.
The major difference comes in an internal wireless LAN adapter in the L5/080 TNKW model, which runs the Windows XP Professional operating system. The L5/080 TNKN has no built-in wireless adapter and runs Windows XP Home Edition.
These are also two of the biggest differences between the new L5 series machines and the previous models, which did not include wireless support and ran the Windows 2000 or Windows ME operating systems. The previous model also used a slower 600-MHz Crusoe processor.
The new Libretto models have a battery life of 4.5 hours on the standard battery, the company says.
Sony's Story
Toshiba's launch comes a week after Sony announced its new Vaio C1 and Vaio U1 sub-notebook computers. The Vaio C1 comes closest to the Libretto in terms of looks but runs a slightly faster 867-MHz version of the same Crusoe processor and has a smaller 8.9 -inch widescreen LCD that manages the same resolution.
The Vaio U1 is a class smaller, based on the 867-MHz processor but fitted out with a 6.4-inch LCD. When Sony launched the computer, the company claimed it was the smallest Windows XP machine on the market, which is something that the new Libretto does not change.
The new Toshiba machine weighs 2.4 pounds and measures 10.6 inches by 6.6 inches by .8 inches. In contrast, the Sony Vaio C1 comes in just a touch over 2 pounds and measures 9.8 inches by 5.9 inches by .8 inches while the Vaio U1 is much smaller and lighter at 7.3 inches by 5.5 inches by 1.4 inches and 1.8 pounds.
At Your Fingertips
While the Sony machine may win on size and weight, road warriors will likely appreciate the Toshiba's larger keyboard. The Libretto has a key pitch, the distance between the center of one key to that of its neighbor, of .70 inches and a key stroke, the depth of the key push, of .08 inches.
In comparison, the keyboard on Toshiba's full size and high-spec Dynabook G5 that was also announced on the same day has a .74 inch pitch and a .11 inch depth. The Sony C1 and U1 have a pitch of .67 inches and .55 inches respectively while the depth is .08 inches and .06 inches respectively.
The new machines will go on sale in Japan on Friday and the wireless model will sell for around $1,300 while the non-wireless model will cost around $1070. A day later, Sony will put its Vaio C1 and U1 models on sale at $1760 and $1150 respectively.
Toshiba has no plans to put the Libretto computers on sale overseas at present.
regards, wsh
From LeoG's Group: New Fujitsu P Models
New P Models!
From: Riona
Date: 30 Apr 2002
Time: 14:27:41 -0400
Remote Name: 202.146.238.4
Comments
A friend of mine tried to purchase a FMV-BIBLO LOOX T9/80M (Japanese model for P-2046) in Tokyo the other day and a few shops apparently told her that this item is discontinued (for the local market) and a new model is expected early June! Probably with higher specs. like: Crusoe 867MHz, 384MB max. RAM support, bigger drives (40GB?), IrDA port (??), etc.... details sketchy thou...
Casio introduced some time ago a very small laptop with a TM5600 chip, the Cassiopeia Fiva. I really haven't heard much about it, but it may still be on sale in the Pacific Rim. The announcement may be for an ungraded version of this product, perhaps a competitor for the Sony U.
Transmetazone has the Cassiopeia listed:
http://www.transmetazone.com/articleview.cfm?articleID=440
regards, wsh
1stF, thanks for the responses.
If as we suspect the P4-Ms and the various P3-Ms do not and, indeed, cannot run at the advertised speed while mobile, this seems like misleading advertising (without the speed steps being explained somewhere in the ad). Have to wonder how many consumers buy a laptop thinking they are getting P4 or fast P3 performance, similar to their current desktops, only to learn later (if they learn ever) that the machine on battery power performs mostly like their three year old PII in their son's room. The defense that the chips can run at the advertised speed while on AC does not seem adequate for a mobile chip, where, presumably, a primary focus of the consumer is operation under battery power. I would very much like to see what the advertising council and the FTC would do with a couple of thousand complaints against specific ads placed by the various OEMs and their ad agencies.
I am a little surprised, however, how we seem to be having this discussion in a vacuum. As near as I can see, your post on Yahoo didn't engender any response at all, so I appear to by your sole recruit. What about it Bird Steak Fred BB Peter et al., should INTC be called on this issue? Are these ads misleading to consumers? Does anyone have any more insight into the max MHz of the various INTC chips while on battery power? It really wouldn't be that much effort for us to look for OEM ads, and INTC ads, and complain to the FTC regarding specific misleading ads. As I mentioned earlier, there is a simple procedure to file complaints online with the US Federal Trade Commission, at ftc.gov.
regards, wsh