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Is this the MSFT Project?
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20051209A2005.html
Microsoft seeks partners to produce sub-US$300 PDA phones
Daniel Shen and Yinxuan Wang, Taipei; Steve Shen, DigiTimes.com [Friday 9 December 2005]
Microsoft plans to team up with Taiwan ODM handset makers and own-brand handset vendors to manufacture sub-US$300 PDA phones in a bid to help the company expand its share of the global OS (operating system) market for mobile devices, according to sources at Taiwan makers and vendors.
Microsoft has already exchanged ideas about the potential project with its major partners in Taiwan, including High Tech Computer (HTC), Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer, Acer, Mitac International, and BenQ, the sources noted.
Most Taiwan makers generally support Microsoft’s plan to optimize its mobile operating system, but they said there still is a long way to go before the software vendor and local handset makers can jointly bring down overall production costs for PDA phones.
Jack Tong, president of own-brand handset vendor Dopod International, said that it is difficult for makers to drastically cut down their costs as the production of PDAs and smartphones can hardly reach a suitable economy of scale.
With consumers demanding more functions from PDA phones, it would probably take two years for makers to be able to roll out sub-US$300 PDA phones, contended Hwang Shan-rong, chairman of Taiwan-based PDA phone maker E-Ten Information Systems.
wbmw, thank you for your insights on integrating LR2 into IC product designs. They are very helpful in providing context for evaluating LR2 going forward.
Our foundry licensee(s) might be able to engineer LR2 into a number of products, but it appears that TMTA will need to be involved in many (most?) others. Hopefully the company will soon be able to free up more engineers for tech transfer to new licensees as well as speed the integration process through repetition.
regards, wsh
Re: Fujitsu was not involved in the design of the Sun T1, so they have no voice for what gets included as features. All they represent is Sun's manufacturing partner. They will fab the T1 parts, as opposed to TI, who was Sun's previous partner in this regard.
I have been surprised re your comments in recent posts of the limited relationship between Sun and Fujitsu. I don't follow Sun at all, but have read from time to time in recent years of an alliance between Sun and Fujitsu.
e.g, Sun and Fujitsu to combine Unix server businesses – report
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2003/10/22/sun_and_fujitsu_to_combine/
I thought the companies were teaming up to so as to compete against IBM and HP in the Unix server market?
wbmw, could you offer any insight into what might be involved in incorporating LR2 into ICs? I find that I really don't have a clue in this regard.
I find it counter-intuitive that on the one hand LR2 tech can be transferred to Fujitsu so that its engineers can include it in products produced for mfg partners, eg. the new S3 graphics cards, and on the other that 100 man-years of TMTA engineering expertise is required to aide SNE in a similar tech transfer. I recognize that this might not be an "apples to apples" comparision, but it still is very puzzling to me.
Any comments would be greatly appreciated.
regards, wsh
Re: Sun designed the CPU. Fujitsu is just manufacturing it. So no, T1 will not have LR2, as it would have needed a license from Sun.
I don't understand this comment. Did you mean "needed a license from TMTA"?
IAE, TMTA has licensed Fujitsu to produce ICs from its Mie Foundry incorporating LR2 for any of Fujitsu's foundry customers. At this point the tech has been fully transferred from TMTA to Fujitsu, and Fujitsu is authorized and trained to engineer in LR2 without a separate license from TMTA or even the assistance of TMTA. Fujitsu of course has the duty to report to TMTA and pay royalties for production of ICs incorporating LR2.
This model has first been seen in the development of the new S3 graphics cards. I don't know if LR2 is present in the Sun T1 processors, but it would seem at least a possibility. The timing of the development and the emphasis on energy savings over competitive products seems to support this view.
regards, wsh
Next week SUN launches UltraSPARC T1. Perhaps it includes LR2 technology???
This chip is the result of the collaboration between Sun and Fujitsu, and it is produced at Fujitsu's Mie foundry. As it is touted as a "green" chip, perhaps Fujitsu has engineered in LR2.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/11/04/sun_niagara_cool/
Sun commits to 4,6 and 8 core 'green' Niagara
Published Friday 4th November 2005 01:22 GMT
Exclusive Sun Microsystems will soon launch its Niagara processor with four-, six- and eight-core versions of the chip and bill the product as a green computing wonder, according to documents obtained by The Register.
In early September, we revealed http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/09/09/niagara_many_cores/) that Niagara would be sold as the UltraSPARC T1 and slot into servers called the Sun Fire T1000 and T2000. The new documents confirm this information and show that Sun has committed to shipping a four-core version of the chip along with the six-core and eight-core versions, as was predicted.
Sun will be able to spread up to 16 software threads across the four-core chip and up to 32 threads across the eight-core product. The company will also tout DDR2, chipkill and memory sparing support with the chips. The Niagara servers will have 4 Gigabit Ethernet ports as well.
The lower-end T1000 system looks to start at $3,000 and stretch up to $11,000, running on a 1.0GHz Niagara chip. It will have one PCI-E slot and room for one disk. The fatter T2000 will start at close to $8,000 and stretch up to $26,000 with 1.2GHz chips. It will have three PCI-E slots and two PCI-X slots and support up to four disks.
When Sun launches Niagara, it's expected to flog a new performance metric called SWaP - space, watts and performance. This is an indication of Sun's green computing marketing plans. The Niagara chips will start out at just 1.0GHz but should perform very well on web and application serving functions.
Sun will compare the Niagara servers - code-named Erie and Ontario - to IBM's x366 server that runs on Xeon chips from Intel. Sun reckons its kit provides 3.8x better performance per watt, while consuming 2.4x less power per rack. This could save customers $313,000 over three years for 100 servers, according to the Sun documents. In SWaP terms, Sun's system will be 5.8x better than the IBM box, but we don't imagine too many people to take the SWaP metric seriously
stack: could end up at Transmeta as upfront payment
Among the many mysteries surrounding TMTA these days is the future of the Efficeon chip. It looks like there will likely be a special version(s) of the chip designed for partners such as MSFT. But what of a general purpose E*?
I don't think the company is out of this side of the chip business; rather, out of the business as practiced under Perry. No more producing chips with negative margins! If a company wants E* chips, I think they can get them but only after entering a requirements contract with cash up front.
This is what caught my eye about the OQO financing as it caught yours. It would seem that OQO has done pretty well with its first gen machine and needs to get on with a more up to date unit. They are starting to see competition from eg. the Flybook and the new Fujitsu P1510. A new OQO with an ULV E* and LR2 would seem ideal. This would seem to address the primary complaints of users and reviewers regarding the OQO Model 01: runs a little hot, limited battery life, and somewhat sluggish. Hope that is the plan.
regards, wsh
A Tiny Windows Laptop With a Sense of Fashion
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/24/technology/circuits/24pogue.html
EVERYWHERE you look, the electronics industry seems to be playing its own mutant variations of limbo. But the question isn't "How low can you go?" At Dell, it's "How cheap can you go?"
At Apple, it's "How cool can you go?" And at Microsoft's Windows division, it's "How slow can you go?"
Among the Asian makers of Windows laptops, though, the game for some time has been, "How small can you go?"
Turns out the answer is, "smaller than you'd like it." The limiting factor isn't miniaturization technology - it's your eyes and fingers. For example, on the pocketable OQO palmtop, just re-released with upgraded specs, you have to type with your thumbs, BlackBerry-style. The trick is to find the sweet spot, a balance somewhere on the spectrum between miracle and torture device.
A Taiwan company called Dialogue has placed a new dot along that curve with an intriguing micro-laptop called the Flybook. It's a full-blown Windows XP computer, complete with touch screen and stylus, that's not much bigger than a DVD case (9.3 by 6.1 inches, 2.7 pounds). Despite its size, the Flybook packs in more features per square inch than a Where's Waldo poster.
If you confuse the Flybook with the Fly pen computer, an educational toy for pre-teenagers that was also released last month, you'll come to your senses when the bill arrives. The Fly pen costs $100; the Flybook laptop goes for $2,490.
That's extremely pricey for a laptop, and it doesn't even include the $350 external module you'll need to play or record DVD's and CD's. Then again, the Flybook's makers have adopted an iPoddish marketing strategy, hoping to sell the thing as jewelry.
For example, this laptop is absolutely beautiful. Its lacquered, shiny paint job says "sports car" more than "Windows box." The buying-a-car analogy continues with a choice of color: silver, black, dark blue, dark red, yellow, orange or white. Similarly, the first authorized dealer is, of all places, Barneys New York, the high-end clothing store. (You can also buy the Flybook from flybookstore.com.)
So what does all that money buy you? Just about everything. The laptop's tidy back panel bursts with every jack known to man, sometimes in duplicate: it has a fax/modem jack, a pair of U.S.B. 2.0 connectors, Ethernet networking, a video output, a TV output, two FireWire ports for external hard drives or a camcorder, headphone and microphone jacks, a PC card slot and probably a partridge in a pear tree.
YOU can get onto the Internet or an office network using the laptop's wireless Wi-Fi antenna. You can also connect to palmtops, printers or headsets wirelessly using its Bluetooth transmitter. Strangest and most wonderful of all, you can insert the little security card from a Cingular or T-Mobile cellphone or BlackBerry (that is, the SIM card, which stands for Subscriber Identity Module).This ingenious feature means, first of all, that your laptop can get online anywhere there's a cellphone signal. No longer must you desperately hunt for a coffee shop that offers a wireless "hot spot."
Second, it means that you can actually make voice calls with the Flybook. When you click a taskbar icon, a weird little two-dimensional cellphone appears on the screen. You can click its number buttons to dial, and presto: you're chatting on your laptop-turned-speakerphone.
Three aspects of this ritual may strike you as a bit clumsy: the parts about taking the SIM card out of your cellphone, clicking number buttons, and making calls over a speakerphone for all to hear.
Fortunately, you can work around all three. For example, you can dial directly from your address book (which, conveniently enough, is also stored on the SIM card); you can make calls using a headset - ideally, a wireless Bluetooth one; and you can sign up for a second cellular account (and SIM card) just for your laptop. Adding a second line costs a lot less than, say, Verizon's $60-a-month high-speed laptop Internet plan. Then again, you might feel a little weird telling the Cingular agent that the "family member" you want to add to your account is actually your laptop.
The Flybook offers all the traditional utility of a Windows laptop, but its bright, touch-sensitive wide-screen display (1,024 by 600 pixels) does something that your laptop probably doesn't: it rotates and folds back against the keyboard, so you wind up with a tablet. It's great for scrawling notes, making sketches, checking off boxes in a database or tapping links on Web pages. (You can rotate the image 90 degrees, as the goofily translated manual puts it, "clockwise or anti-clockwise.")
That's not to say that the Flybook runs Microsoft's Tablet PC operating system; it doesn't (yet, says the company). But it duplicates most of the functions of an official Microsoft Tablet PC, and in the case of the handwriting recognition - printing or script - far surpasses it.
At first glance, then, the Flybook almost seems to justify its nosebleed-inducing price. It's tiny and one-handable, loaded with features and highly fashionable. Heck, you could collect all six colors, so you'll always have one that goes with your outfit.
Then reality sets in. The Flybook's shrunken keyboard isn't a BlackBerry-style thumb keyboard by any means. Still, typing on it requires scrunching up your fingers and keeping your eyes on what you're doing. You can certainly forgive a certain amount of keyboard shrinkage - hey, what do you expect on a computer the size of a clutch purse? - but it's too bad the designers wasted a full inch of width by leaving plastic margins on either side. Why not let the keyboard stretch to the edges of the laptop?
The mouse presents another "you have to get used to it" situation. Instead of a trackpad, you get a Thinkpad-style rubber nubbin that pokes up, in this case above and to the right of the keyboard. You get one pair of clickers (corresponding to the right and left mouse buttons) next to the rubber nubbin, and another set at the left edge of the keyboard. For most purposes, these are awfully awkward placements. They do, however, permit a trick that's not easy on regular laptops: you can point and click while standing up, holding the Flybook with both hands.
You should also be aware that although some of the Flybook's details are perfectly adequate (512 megabytes of memory, a 40- or 80-gigabyte hard drive), others are heartbreaking. The processor is a sluggish Transmeta Crusoe one-gigahertz chip, and the battery's two- to three-hour life is, by today's laptop standards, a little embarrassing. Its user manual is sadly incomplete - you can download it from the Flybook's Web site, if you'd like a look - and neither it nor the online help even mentions the cellphone feature.
When it comes to miniaturization, compromise is the name of the game. Maybe, for you, the Flybook's wireless smarts, good looks and jaw-dropping size are adequate compensation for the Munchkin keyboard, the awkward pointing device, the low power and the short battery life.
The Flybook is not, however, the only micro-laptop game in town. Fujitsu's Lifebook P1510D, for example, is about the same size and also has the rotating touch screen -- but it weighs even less (2.2 pounds), has a bigger keyboard, and has proper right click/left click buttons below the keyboard. Its available hard drives (30 and 60 gigabytes) are smaller than the Flybook's, and it lacks Bluetooth, that cool cellphone feature, and any chance of fitting in at Barneys -- but it costs $800 less.
Even if you don't buy a Flybook, though, you should smile at its arrival. Adding cellphone features to a laptop is a welcome idea, and so is the Apple-inspired notion that physical beauty can add tremendous pleasure to using a machine. For the Flybook, the question isn't just how small can you go, but how small and gorgeous.
OQO to raise $20M; MOT is an investor
http://www.oqo.com/company/news/releases/show/pr0015
OQO Announces $20M Financing Round
SAN FRANCISCO, Nov. 16 /PRNewswire/ -- OQO, Inc., manufacturer of the model 01 and model 01+ ultra personal computer, today announced $20 million in Series D financing. The oversubscribed round was led by Washington D.C.-based Paladin Capital Group with existing institutional investors Azure Capital Partners and AsiaTech Management, as well as new key strategic investor Motorola Ventures, the venture capital arm of Motorola, Inc. (NYSE: MOT). This round will be used to scale the sales and marketing efforts while accelerating research and development of next generation ultra personal computer products and related technologies.
Paladin invests in companies that can play an important role in protecting the nation's critical infrastructure with a focus on companies whose solutions are capable of having an immediate impact. The firm's management includes the former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the former Director of the National Security Agency (NSA), and the former Deputy Director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Paladin Principal Niloo Howe, who will join the OQO Board of Directors, commented, "as the only pocketable fully functional Windows XP PC on the market, the OQO ultra personal computer is already a key component in a variety of Homeland Security projects. We see tremendous potential for OQO in the government sector, in addition to the broader enterprise market."
"OQO is pleased to add to our world-class group of institutional investors," said Jory Bell, OQO's CEO. "Paladin's deep insight into government and other specialized market segments will prove invaluable as we continue to grow and diversify our business, while Motorola's participation aligns OQO with a leader in wireless telecommunications."
"With its unique technology and commitment to revolutionizing personal computing, OQO is an outstanding addition to Motorola's portfolio of technology investments," said Warren Holtsberg, corporate vice president, equity investments, of Motorola Ventures. "By facilitating the development of next generation pocketable computers, Motorola's strategic investment will advance our goal of bringing seamless mobility to wireless users." Lt. General (Ret.) Kenneth A. Minihan, a Paladin Principal and former Director of the NSA, noted, "OQO is uniquely positioned to extend computational power and critical information deeper into field operations than ever before. Whether in military, first responder or enterprise environments, OQO's personal computers are a vital resource to those on the move throughout the organization."
thanks wbmw. Business Week just ran an article re the battle for cell phone supremacy between MSFT Symbian and Linux
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/nov2005/tc20051108_330003.htm
regards, wsh
wbmw: ...it could be for the MS ultra-portable PC (or UPC) that they have been pushing
That seems a favorite project of B Gates (particularly configured as a tablet UPC), but I have thought that MSFT would not get into hardware that completes so directly with its core software customers, the computer OEMs.
If your guess is correct, would you see MSFT selling such devices directly or developing reference kits for use by participating computer OEMs?
I get the feeling that MSFT is looking to branch out from software and non-competitive products in a search for new revenue streams. They seem to have a new version of Windows for every conceivable product category. Are there any rumors of what MSFT is up to?
Would appreciate any insights (as always).
regards, wsh
wbmw: ...It's meant to imply a specialized, low volume proposition
You may be proven correct in this regard, but it seems at least as likely to imply an Efficeon chip that has some unique coding for eg a MSFTconsumer product. If you read the redacted agreement between TMTA and MSFT, attached to the 2Q report, it seems pretty evident that TMTA is preparing a version of the E* chip for MSFT's use. Perhaps that use is little more than a model for a product to be produced by OEMs (and use MSFT software). But, it may well be for use in a consumer product to be marketed internationally by MSFT. This of course is the "$64,000 Question." The fact that three months after reaching full operation of the Mie fab Fujitsu is now planning another 300mm fab may be a clue in this regard.
If you would, could you comment on my WAG that TMTA is fashioning a version of an E* with LR2 and with a unique version of CMS that provides some mechanism to manage video and audio content being delivered to subscribers through a MSFT Media Center product or IPTV device. Specifically, is it possible for CMS to provide a "hacker-free" mechanism whereby copyrighted content may be accessed by a media ctr computer/set top box/ IPTV device/etc., but the consumer only receives a time limited license to such content (or pays a premium for more extensive rights) and is prohibited from making copies of the content or sending it to third party.
If I am B Gates, I would be striving to put MSFT into the middle of the convergence of voice-data-entertainment and not just for the sale of enabling software.
regards, wsh
wbmw, there may be more to TMTA than revs from NREs and the licensing/engineering of LR2, namely,
"New revenues from specialized versions of our 90 nanometer Efficeon products."
This is a veiled reference to the Microsoft project and the eventual production and sale of specialized E* chips for inclusion in certain MSFT products (as yet undivulged.) There have been hints that specialized versions of the chip might be produced for others as well.
During the cc, there also was mention that in 4Q TMTA intends to produce quantities of the E* with LR2 to drum up business with customers who are willing to buy such chips with healthy margins.
In short, the chip business may be merely dormant and not dead. Of course, this business is impossible to value at this point.
The CultureCom deal appears to be on track, and I was glad to hear that TMTA will receive license fees which M Kent characterized as acceptable to the company (the actual fees were redacted in the 2Q report).
There also remains the potential for enormous one-time-only revs from an anti-trust settlement with INTC. I put a significant value on this possiblity, but it is hard to figure when it might be realized.
Lots of unknowns, but TMTA has the potential of very large revenues going forward.
regards, wsh
Confirmation LR2 is in new S3 Graphics card
S3 tackles entry-level, mainstream graphics market in North America
http://www.tgdaily.com/2005/11/03/via_announces_s20_series/
. . . The selling point of the S20 series however is not really performance, but much more performance per watt, a discipline that typically is not important in the enthusiast desktop graphics space. Via says that the GPU will consume 11.6 watts, which is less than half of Nvidia's mobile 6600 part - according to S3. To our knowledge, Nvidia's mobile 6600 consumes 18 watts - still substantially more than the S27. The entry-level S25 chip, which runs at "more than" 600 MHz, consumes less than 10 watts, the company said. One secret of the low power consumption of the graphics processor comes from the integration of Transmeta' Longrun 2 technology that S3 was able to access through a partnership with Fujitsu. Longrun, originally developed for the Crusoe processor, has been licensed by Fujitsu.
An interesting issue is whether TMTA engineers were involved in the design of the LR2-enabled new card for S3, or did Fujitsu engineers do the work as part of the foundry's turn key services. If the latter, LR2 tech might spread real fast through the IC world. In that light, it is interesting that Fujitsu is already considering another 300mm foundry when the Mie Foundry is only fully operational for a couple of months now.
Anyone else think it interesting that Mark Kent is speaking at an investors conference the day after the 3Q CC. Wonder if the earnings date was moved up to allow Mark to discuss future guidance at the conference.
regards, wsh
Thanks, stack, for keeping this board going.
The S3 Graphics news is what I have been waiting for. Actual commercial sales of products incorporating LR2. May it be the first of a long series of such announcements. Glad to see the market also thought it good news.
While we have to wait, we now can look forward to an actual license revenue stream from product sales. As Fujitsu is planning on delivering products to S3 in 4Q, we should book license revs. in 1Q06.
Anyone else find it puzzling that the mobile computer to be offered by Ford uses a Crusoe chip?
A poster on Yahoo indicates CultureCom has approved the purchase of TMTA assets. As I would think approval by the US Govt is a formality, we should be able to book $15M in 4Q.
Hope that M Kent provides forward guidance next week in the CC. Two cash positive Qs (I am assuming positive numbers for 3Q) plus guidance for a strong 4Q should get us up over $3 to stay.
regards, wsh
Additional data points explaining MSFT Project?
elmaestro691 on Yahoo Board, in post no. 24370, found what appears to be a new TMTA PowerPoint presentation, dated September 2, 2005. See http://transmeta.com/pdfs/presentations/050902_corpfinancials_q2result.pdf
Most of the information will be familiar, but there are a couple of very interesting tidbits found on pages 14 and 15.
On page 14, there is this description of contract engineering services:
"provide development engineering services to expand the use of microprocessor products
-customized processor development for select high volume applications"
On page 15, there is indication of the company's willingness to produce customized versions of the Efficeon processor:
special versions (of Efficeon 90nm TM8820)available to select customers through partnership model
-leveraging TMTA’s unique architecture and value proposition
-recover design costs with NRE paid by customer
There are now several data points to suggest that TMTA is developing for MSFT a custom version of an Efficeon processor to drive an IPTV board/box and through a new version of CMS provide tools to control and protect video content. Perhaps another is the recent announcement by Fujitsu that their new 90nm/45nm foundry in Mie may soon be working near capacity and they are considering the construction of another 300mm wafer facility.
Any guesses what would happen to the pps if MSFT announces an initiative to enable IPTV devices (directly or through participating OEMS) and provide content therefore, such devices uniquely powered by a special version of TMTA's Efficeon 90nm chip.
regards, wsh
Additional data points explaining MSFT Project?
elmaestro691 on Yahoo Board, in post no. 24370, found what appears to be a new TMTA PowerPoint presentation, dated September 2, 2005. See http://transmeta.com/pdfs/presentations/050902_corpfinancials_q2result.pdf
Most of the information will be familiar, but there are a couple of very interesting tidbits found on pages 14 and 15.
On page 14, there is this description of contract engineering services:
"provide development engineering services to expand the use of microprocessor products
-customized processor development for select high volume applications"
On page 15, there is indication of the company's willingness to produce customized versions of the Efficeon processor:
special versions (of Efficeon 90nmtm8820)available to select customers through partnership model
-
leveraging TMTA’s unique architecture and value proposition
recover design costs with NRE paid by customer
There are now several data points to suggest that TMTA is developing for MSFT a custom version of an Efficeon processor to drive a IPTV board/box and provide tools to control and protect video content. Perhaps another is the recent announcement by Fujitsu that their new 90nm/45nm foundry in Mie may soon be working near capacity and they are considering the construction of another 300mm wafer facility.
MSFT Project speculation from Yahoo Board
Wernzi71 posted a very interesting speculation re the MSFT Project over the weekend on the Yahoo Board. See post no. 23837. Inexplicably, this post has only received one recommendation, and that was mine this afternoon!
Here is the speculation reported by Wernzi, citing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iptv
speculation about MSFT Project:
Microsoft will sell IPTV hardware-software bundles to set-top boxes manufatureŕs.
The package will include mainboard with x86 CPU, grafic controler and !!!!!!!!!!!!! code morhing software !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! which includes special security features that allows to control or disables all copying processes. Fanless !!!!!!!!!
The package will include detailed verification how systems with such a MB will work - this is the job of the 30 TMTA engineers.
Maybe MSFT will sell lincenses for Efficeon/adapted CMS based boards plus IPTV-Windows to set-top box manufacturer.
Maybe Microsoft will build their own set-top box with an price model like the xbox.
The big deal is: Efficeon with CMS enables special security features and allows to use x86 based software. And all with one chip which uses 5 W.
____________________________________
It is very interesting to read this speculation in the context of the redacted TMTA - MSFT contract, appended to the last quarterly report, which can be found here:
http://www.shareholder.com/Common/Edgar/1001193/891618-05-621/05-00.pdf
The Wernzi speculation fits quite well into the gaps in the scope of work for the MSFT Project. If true, TMTA would stand to reap huge revenues from OEMs and/or MSFT from the manufacture and sale of IPTV hardware. Each sale of an IPTV device would potentially involve the sale of an Efficeon chip. Such devices would be mainstream consumer products either stand alone IPTV set-top devices or IPTV interfaces between PCs and TVs.
regards, wsh
PS, in a subsequent post, Wernzi71 provides some additional background on IPTV technology. See Yahoo post no. 23841
re: wbmw: "I've heard the same, that it's a software coding deal"
That has been the most likely bet as to what is occupying the TMTA engineers working for MSFT. However, it does not square
with A Swift's comments last week that:
1) no license revs are involved in the MSFT deal; and
2) TMTA will only provide NRE svcs if they lead to license
revs or product sales.
Maybe the MSFT deal is somehow exempt from this rule, but maybe it isn't.
wsh
Thanks wbmw, appreciate your comments.
regards, wsh
wbmw: "... using Transmeta's LongRun2 package of circuits and algorithms"
This quote from Solid State Tech, Nov '04, provides some context for apparently the large amount of engineering services required to transfer LR2 technology to a licensee. I was hoping you could perhaps provide an engineering perspective of what might be involved in integrating LR2 into a state of the art (eg 90nm CMOS) product. In particular, is it your sense that there is so much work involved that TMTA could only reasonably address one (or a few) new licensees at a time?
To the extent you might be able to share, could you also provide a sense of what INTC is doing to combat leakage at 90nm and smaller lithographies.
TIA, wsh
http://sst.pennnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=ARTCL&Subsection=Display&ARTICLE...
NEC cuts 65nm standby power by two orders of magnitude
NEC has cut standby current leakage at the 65nm node by 30–100× by using HfSiON as the high-k gate dielectric and a transistor structure optimized for Transmeta Corp.'s LongRun2 technology to dynamically adjust the body bias as well as the supply voltage.
The company plans to use this same low-power technology in products across all applications, from portable phones emphasizing reduced power usage, to high-end servers focusing on fast performance. The approach reduces standby leakage current roughly from the range of 10-7A to that of 10-9A in high performance devices, or from around 10-10A to around 10-12A in low-power applications.
While the high-k dielectric cuts the gate leakage, NEC gets more power reduction from using Transmeta's LongRun2 package of circuits and algorithms to monitor the chip's activity and adjust both the supply voltage and the body bias as needed (Fig. 1). Cutting the supply voltage when not needed for performance reduces power usage, and limits gate-induced drain leakage and gate leakage. However, the lower supply voltage requires lower threshold voltage to maintain transistor performance, and lower threshold voltage means more subthreshold leakage. Thus, the system adjusts the body bias to significantly reduce this subthreshold leakage as well.
NEC structures the transistor so changing the body bias produces a big change in threshold voltage, without the usual reliability problems, or the increase in gate-induced drain leakage. The same design can be used from high-speed to low-power modes.
Usually shorter gates create a short channel effect that reduces threshold voltage, and changes in body bias produce only small changes in threshold voltage. And adjusting the body bias increases gate-induced drain leakage. But we controlled these problems with an optimized source-drain structure, and a well with sides steeply sloping in toward the top (Fig. 2). This shape concentrates impurities toward the bottom of the channel, away from the surface where they would increase the threshold voltage, while allowing the high density of impurities needed to enable large changes in threshold voltage with changes in body bias. With this optimized structure, off-leakage can be reduced by two orders of magnitude by adjusting the body bias to as low as 10-9A/µm with supply voltage of –2V.
We set three operating modes for the device. The high-speed mode uses a 1.2V supply voltage and 0V body bias, for standby current of <200nA/µm. The power-saving mode uses a 0.6V supply voltage and -1V substrate bias for <2nA/µm standby current. Normal mode is in between, with <20nA/µm standby current. Active power requirements in normal mode are about 50% that of high-speed mode; those in power-saving mode are about 10%. Standby power requirements are reduced to about 13% of peak in normal operating mode, 7% of peak in power-saving mode.
While adjusting the body bias significantly reduces off-leakage, it can cause problems with device reliability. We found no effects on time-dependent dielectric breakdown or hot carrier injection, but adjusting body bias did increase the negative bias temperature instability. But by reducing the supply voltage to a level in the acceptable range for each body bias setting, the impact on device life can be reduced to where it is no longer a problem. Values for our three modes are all within these ranges.
We use HfSiON for the high-k gate dielectric because it remains amorphous at the 1050°C CMOS process temperatures instead of crystallizing, and its low defect density means low hysteresis. Gate leakage with the HfSiON dielectric is 2.5 to 3 orders of magnitude smaller than with a SiON layer with an SiO2 equivalent oxide thickness of 1.6nm.
Because the HfSiON gate dielectric reduces both gate leakage and gate-induced drain leakage, and can be thinner than SiO2, it gets the highest on-current with the lowest standby current yet reported for a polysilicon/high-k transistor — on-current of 520µA/µm and standby current of 17pA/µm, with a supply voltage of 1.2V.
HfSiON's problem with Fermi-level pinning is actually an advantage: It increases the threshold voltage, which reduces the off-current. To prevent the implanted P ions from dispersing from the polysilicon into the HfSiON to cause long-term reliability problems, we put a layer of amorphous silicon in between. This barrier layer keeps the P out of the HfSiON and cuts the lifespan reduction from nMOS positive bias temperature instability by two orders of magnitude.
Yasushi Yamagata and Kiyotaka Imai, NEC Electronics Corp.
What is the MSFT Project?
During the cc and the presentation at Moors and Cabot, I was listening hard for clues as to what TMTA is doing for MSFT. I think some new info is available.
What we know: Apparently 35 or so TMTA engineers are working on the MSFT project, and will do so for a total of at least 9 months, and possibly longer. This would suggest a pretty significant project. Also, and I think for the first time, Art confirmed that there are no potential license revs involved in this deal.
What might be relevant: During the M&C presentation, Art made the comment that the company is addressing emerging market applications. No detail was provided, however. Also at M&C, Art and Mark both made it clear that the company is not providing NRE svcs unless such services are synergistic either on the LR2 side (leading to license revs) or on the product technology side (leading to product sales).
These data points may indicate that TMTA is working on a future MSFT product and not, eg, writing code to establish backward compatibility for XBox games. So, what product?
MSFT is very busy talking up entertainment centers, but it is unlikely they will get into the hardware side of this marketplace as it would put them in direct competition with their primary customers. So, ...
XBox360 Portable might be a possibility. A proprietary version of the Efficeon with LR2 might work in such a unit. MSFT must be planning a portable version of the new XBox to keep up with SNE.
Under $1000 ultra tablet PC/phone/PDA/GPS might be another. Bill Gates' public comments suggest that he wants to see this product in the marketplace, and may have decided why not sell the product as well as the software. This market is pretty open with no announced products by MSFT's big customers, eg Dell. Yet, this would be stepping on the toes of the computer OEMs, something MSFT has hesitated to do in the past.
Any other guesses?
wsh
Steak, I share your serious financial commitment to TMTA, and will also wait until the Street comes around to valuing this company with conventional metrics.
All signs point towards at least two more Qs with numbers as good as, and likely better than, 2Q. Annualized, TMTA is realizing over $.16 per share! I recognize that there are some ifs and buts about future revs (M Kent called this situation "lumpy"), but there is little wishful thinking involved.
NRE payments from Sony will continue without a stated termination date. NREs from MSFT will continue for at least two more Qs and maybe longer. NREs from Culture.com will start once the deal is finalized. New LR2 licenses are expected. Current deferred license revs ($15M) should be realized over the next six months. $15M from Culture.com should be booked in 4Q (perhaps 1Q06 if there is a delay in approval by the US gov.).
There is uncertainty whether the company can sustain such levels until LR2 license revs can kick in. There also is opportunity for new revs on the product side. A discount is appropriate, but not the one currently being wielded by the Street.
This stock should be over $3 at at this point even with a high discount to fair value.
An amazing turnaround. Have to give it up to Art and Mark and the skilled engineers at TMTA.
wsh
There are only two sure things.
wsh
wbmw: re: "You have got to be oblivious".
I suggest you are the one being oblivious. Your quoted financials from 1Q05 have little value in projections going forward in light of the new business model. As you well know, the company has been very successful in reducing the cost of operations. Salaries of technical employees are being covered, and then some, by Sony MS and, now Culturecom. Marketing has been cut back, and, presumably, so has R&D at least to some extent. Last Qs loss of $21m (not "over $25m") on revenues of $6.9m (not "$11.2m")will be lower in 2Q and going forward in '05. This will be clear when the 2Q report is issued.
My basic point being, by the time 4Q rolls around the cost of operations will be greatly reduced. Book an additional $15m in the Q from Culturecom and TMTA will be "well in the black." This assumes the $14.5m upfront license fees from Sony and Fujitsu will be booked in 3Q, but it is certainly possible that some or all of such revs will be also realized in 4Q.
Whether or not Culturecom will prove to be a very minor licensee as you suggest is currently blowing in the wind.
However, I think I would bet the over. The company seems well connected politically and their Chinese DNA tech seems quite impressive. Check out their website: www.culturecom.com.hk
regards, wsh
Dew, re: "miraculous attainment of profitability"
As a numbers guy, I would think you would be more in tune with the new model.
All recent info from the company has been pointing to profitability within a couple of quarters and the news today from Culture.com makes it all but a certainty. Cash burn will be $5m or less in 3Q and 4Q 05. The Co. holds $14.5m in escrow from previously announced upfront license fees, and now an additional $15m, all of which should be available as revenue prior to the end of '05 (upon completion of deliverables). Then, add in NREs from Culture.com and the other modest ongoing revenues realized by TMTA from various sources, and the company should be well in the black in 4Q. They certainly will not have to worry about taxes for awhile!
The real intrique over today's news is the ongoing revenue potential from Culture.com's Crusoe or E*-based computer sales in PRC. The company's stated goal of providing an affordable ($200!) Chinese language Linux OS computer could result in some serious license fees over the next few years to TMTA.
regards, wsh
Tal, MSFT appears to be moving aggressively into mobile devices with Windows Mobile 5.0. See, e.g.,
http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=163100809&tid=5979
". . . Gates said more powerful CPUs are fueling advances in the new OS, and as chips grow more robust, more capabilities will be possible, especially in the realm of messaging and multimedia."
My guess is that TMTA will play some role, but would love to know what it is.
regards, wsh
Is it: "a tough way to make a buck" or "close to stealing?"
It seems that the new mgt. team has figured out how to get through the end of the year with minimal cash drain. The co. may even be somewhat profitable in 4Q. To my mind the real questions concern how sustainable IP license revs will prove to be and whether or not there are chip revs in TMTA's future.
I find LR2 very hard to value. As far as I can tell, a US Patent has not as yet issued for the tech. This may hint at problems getting a patent allowed, as it was filed around 20 months ago. Nonetheless, some of the big dogs from Japan Inc. have been willing to spend millions for licenses. In a year or two will LR2 be ubiquitous or disgarded? Hard to know at this point.
I am somewhat optimistic that the Efficeon with LR2 will be produced and marketed in commercial quantities under license by Fujitsu. See post No. 4925 for a tangible hint in this regard.
The miniturized Efficeon 8820 with LR2 added shouild be an ideal chip for handtop x86 computers and products on the drawing board for merging cell phones/mp3 players/and x86 computers running Linux or the new Mobile Windows. Is TMTA helping MSFT develop such a product?
Lots of uncertainty, but lots of potential. I am in.
regards, wsh
OT Dew - GTCB
I sold over 75% between $1.80 - 1.85, but still hold a little over 10K. I am planning on buying a good size position over the summer.
Not sure what you mean by bombshell, unless you are referring to the generally positive/reassuring comments by Dr. Cox re Euro approval. Did I miss something?
regards, wsh
re: "TMTA has become a contract-services shop"
Dew, I think that is a good thing as it keeps TMTA's workforce funded until next year.
In transitioning to the new business model, my primary concern was how to keep things going for a year until LR2 licensing revs started flowing in 1Q06. The contracts with Sony and MSFT allow TMTA to keep their engineers gainfully employed.
Next year these same engineers can provide similar services to what hopefully will be a series of new LR2 licensees.
I envision TMTA evolving into a company much like ARMHY. Seems a workable business plan, one that might result in a profitable, sustainable company.
The real intersting Q from today's CC is what the 25 engineers assigned to MSFT will be working on, and whether MSFT will be a licensee of Transmeta's IP.
regards, wsh
The Cell of a New Machine
http://www.economist.com/science/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=3644254
Is the new Cell chip really as revolutionary as its proponents claim?
ANALOGIES are often drawn between the fields of computer science and biology. The information-processing abilities of DNA are a form of natural molecular computing, and computer viruses leap from machine to machine in ways reminiscent of their disease-causing namesakes. At the International Solid-State Circuits Conference in San Francisco this week, a trio of mighty information-technology firms—Sony, Toshiba and IBM—pushed the analogy a little further. They unveiled a much anticipated new computer chip, four years in the making, the very name of which is a biological metaphor: the Cell.
As its name suggests, the Cell chip is designed to be used in large numbers to do things that today's computers, most of which are primitive machines akin to unicellular life-forms, cannot. Each Cell has as its “nucleus” a microprocessor based on IBM's POWER architecture. This is the family of chips found inside Apple's Power Mac G5 computers and IBM's powerful business machines. The Cell's “cytoplasm” consists of eight “synergistic processing elements”. These are independent processors that have a deliberately minimalist design in order, paradoxically, to maximise their performance.
A program running on a Cell consists of small chunks, each of which contains both programming instructions and associated data. These chunks can be assigned by the nucleus to particular synergistic processors inside its own Cell or, if it is deemed faster to do so, sent to another Cell instead. Software chunks running on one Cell can talk to chunks running on other Cells, and all have access to a shared main memory. Since chunks of software are able to roam around looking for the best place to be processed, the performance of a Cell-based machine can be increased by adding more Cells, or by connecting several Cell-based machines together.
All of this means that programs designed to run on Cell-based architecture should be able to fly along at blistering speeds—and will run ever faster as more Cells are made available. The prototype Cell being discussed this week runs at 256 gigaflops (a flop—one “floating-point” operation per second—is a measure of how fast a processor can perform the individual operations of digital arithmetic that all computing ultimately boils down to). A speed of 256 gigaflops is around ten times the performance of the chips found in the fastest desktop PCs today; the Cell is thus widely referred to as a “supercomputer on a chip”, which is an exaggeration, but not much of one. On the top500.org list of the world's fastest computers, the bottom-ranked machine has a performance of 851 gigaflops. A machine based on only four Cell chips would easily outrank this.
If you believe the hype, all this has other chipmakers—notably Intel, whose Pentium series is the market leader—quaking in their boots. No doubt they are nervous. After all Andy Grove, one of Intel's founders, called his most famous book “Only the Paranoid Survive”. But it is not yet clear that Cell will sweep all before it. The reason is that existing programs have not been designed in the chunky way required if they are to run on Cell-based machines—and rewriting them would be a monumental task.
For the moment, that will not worry Cell's designers because the kinds of things Cell chips are intended to be used for require specially designed software anyway. Cell chips are well suited to processing streams of video and sound, and for modelling the complex three-dimensional worlds of video games, so Cell's debut will be in Sony's next-generation games console, the PlayStation 3, which is expected to contain four of the beasts. Cell chips will also be ideal for use inside consumer-electronics devices such as digital video-recorders and high-definition televisions. Both Sony and Toshiba plan to use Cell chips in such products. For its part, IBM is talking up the Cell's potential to power supercomputers, the fastest of which, IBM's Blue Gene/L, consists of thousands of special chips that are, in many ways, more primitive versions of Cell. Using Cell chips instead would not, therefore, be a big stretch. And supercomputer programmers, like video-game designers, do not mind learning to program an entirely new machine provided it delivers the performance they are seeking.
If Cell did eventually break out of these specialist applications and into general-purpose computers, Intel would have every right to be paranoid. But Kevin Krewell, the editor of Microprocessor Report, an industry journal, sounds a note of caution. The Cell is too power-hungry for handheld devices, and it would need to have its mathematical functions tweaked to be really suitable for use in supercomputers. The Cell is impressive, but, in Mr Krewell's view, “it is no panacea for all those market segments”. Similar claims to those now being made for Cell were made in the past about the Sony/Toshiba chip called the Emotion Engine, which lies at the heart of the PlayStation 2. This was also supposed to be suitable for non-gaming uses. Yet the idea went nowhere, and the company set up by Toshiba to promote other uses of the Emotion Engine was closed down.
Extravagant claims were also made about the RISC, POWER and Transmeta architectures, notes Dean McCarron, a chip analyst at Mercury Research in Scottsdale, Arizona. These once-novel methods of chip design have done respectably in specialist applications, but have not dethroned Intel as it was suggested they might when they were launched. Yet both Mr McCarron and Mr Krewell acknowledge that things could be different this time. As Mr McCarron puts it, there are “more ingredients for success present than on previous attempts”. Intel was able to see off earlier pretenders to its throne by increasing the performance of its Pentium chips, and by exploiting its economies of scale as market leader. But in this case, the performance gap looks insuperable, and Sony, Toshiba and IBM plan to exploit economies of scale of their own.
Quite how revolutionary the Cell chip will turn out to be, then, remains to be seen. And though it may not be an Intel killer, it could prevent that firm from extending its dominance of the desktop into the living room. Consumer-electronics devices, unlike desktop PCs, do not have to be compatible with existing software. In that sense, the Cell does pose a threat to Intel, which regards the “digital home” as a promising area for future growth. Stand by, therefore, for another round of creative destruction in the field of information technology. And no matter what the Cell does to the broader computer-industry landscape, the virtual game-vistas it will conjure up are certain to look fantastic.
re: the payment that tmta currently owes ibm, i've never been clear on what it's for, i thought for buying the licence back
Hi shady. I recall that the debt to IBM is oweing as a result of TMTA buying back the license some years ago. IBM gave TMTA time to generate cashflow and set a repayment date of 12/04; not enough time as it turned out.
I was thinking/hoping that IBM would take a license to LR2 in lieu of the debt. The fact that they didn't might signal that IBM has no present perceived need for LR2.
I agree that Sony is an exciting licensee in terms of potential licensing revs and it likely to use the tech in HDTVs, HDDVDs, and the PSP. I would think the PSP would use a variant of the "Cell" processor which seems to open the door at some point to Toshiba and IBM.
Hard to sort out at present.
regards, wsh
Transmeta Licenses LongRun2 to Sony
http://neasia.nikkeibp.com.hk/dailynewsdetail/000268
January 27, 2005 (TOKYO) -- Transmeta Corp of the US has licensed its LongRun2 -- power management technologies which reduce transistor leakage -- to Sony Corp.
Sony is planning to apply these technologies to the development of semiconductor products. As indicated by the introduction of 90nm process technology into the volume production of core LSIs used in its DVD recorders and handheld games console, the PSP, Sony has recently been driving the most advanced miniaturization in semiconductor manufacturing technologies. And the company needed a solution for leakage, which increases as semiconductors become smaller.
LongRun2 technologies reduce leakage power consumption by dynamically adjusting transistor threshold voltages. The technologies change electric potential of transistor substrates and adjust threshold voltages. If the power consumption levels are the same, LongRun2 can improve the operational frequency range, compared to other technologies. LongRun2 technologies are particularly effective when adjusting transistor threshold voltages during the production of LSIs, and reducing fluctuations in threshold voltages caused by changes in voltage and temperature.
Transmeta recently announced that it will focus on licensing its IP, and on modifying the development and marketing of its conventional x86-compatible microprocessor products. Sony has become the third licensee of Transmeta's LongRun2 technologies, after NEC Electronics Corp and Fujitsu Ltd.
(NE Asia Online)
re: you're obviously not an engineer
actually a PE, but not an EE, and really a JD. And IAE it has been awhile.
yawne's cite is quite helpful in our discusssion. In addition, it is useful to refer to these articles from late last year:
http://earthlink.com.com/PlayStation+3+chip+on+track/2100-1006_3-5469124.html?tag=st.rn
"The progressive breakdown of barriers between personal computers and digital consumer electronics requires dramatic enhancements in the capabilities and performance of consumer electronics," Masashi Muromachi, president and CEO of Toshiba's semiconductor division, said in the statement. "The Cell processor meets these requirements with a multi-processor architecture and a structure able to support high-level media processing. Development of this unsurpassed, high-performance processor is well underway, carried forward by dedicated teamwork and state-of-the-art expertise from Toshiba, Sony Group and IBM."
Cell will also incorporate new power-saving techniques and allow for on-chip systems to protect copyright works, according to the statement. The chip will be built using equipment capable of creating circuits as small as 90 nanometers, the companies said, reversing an earlier commitment to build the chip using advanced 65-nanometer processes still under development.
http://earthlink.com.com/Sony+to+boost+in-house+chip+production/2100-1047_3-5499805.html
Sony will increase investment in its chip business by up to $576 million over the next two years to enhance the competitiveness of its products, the company announced Tuesday.
regards, wsh
wbmw, re: ... Sony sells systems and solutions, and I really don't know how LR2 would play into these... You might as well open the floor to speculation, but I don't se anything in the article you linked that would suggest LR2 usage in Cell.
You are, of course, correct that to date Sony has not been in the microprocessor business, but that is apparently about to change with the introduction of their "Cell" processor(s). As this is the only processor Sony has been linked to, it seems more than speculation that the LR2 tech will somehow be used in "Cell" chips. This is why the news of a license to Sony is SO intriguing.
regards, wsh
Dew, re: it stands to reason that under these circumstances SNE was able to cut a good deal
I suspect you are right about this. My guess is that the Sony license provides for a large, single, upfront cash payment, rather than a sequence of quarterly payments as in the case of NEC. IT would be good business for TMTA to offer a discount in return for critically needed cash. I also suspect that TMTA was quite anxious to see the technology get a foothold into "Cell" chip designs, with a view towards enormous royalty streams in the future. Sort of a "domino" approach to licensing. Get an early adopter onboard with th e hope that other similarly situated companies will follow.
This, of course, assumes that Sony will use the tech in forthcoming "Cell" chips, but it appears that may be the case.
regards, wsh
wbmw, Sony's use of LR2 is identified:
http://www.computerweekly.com/articles/article.asp?liArticleID=136374&liArticleTypeID=1&liCa...
Transmeta Corporation has licensed its LongRun2 power management and transistor leakage control system to Sony, which will use the technology to improve the battery life and performance of its notebooks and other electronic devices.
as Sony appears to be planning to use LR2 in laptops, the company must be planning on integrating the tech into future offerings of "Cell" chips; perhaps for 45nm? or, perhaps, for a mobile version of an initial "Cell" chip designed for a line-powered PS3?
This really could be a hint at an enormous LR2 licensing opportunity for TMTA, one that only starts with Sony. If Sony uses LR2 in a "Cell" chip, aren't Toshiba and IBM likelyto follow? To stay competitive, what about AMD and, gasp, INTC?
regards, wsh
Dew, please re-read my comment. I don't know with what you are disagreeing. I only stated my understanding that the structure of the three license agreements is the same; not the terms. I would expect the terms to reflect various differences among the licensees; not uncommon in license agreements.
The broader point I was attempting to make was that there really isn't enough information to support your view that TMTA is scaling back its terms for the licensing of LR2. You may be right, or not, but I don't think you can make the inference from what we know about the three LR2 licenses to date. This is due to the fact that we really know very little about the three licenses other than they were signed.
regards, wsh
Dew, TMTA did not announce the license fee for the last license to Fujitsu. Under the license to NEC, an initial, partial, payment was announced, and futher payments have been announced, but I don't believe the total license fee paid (or to be paid) by NEC has been divulged.
During the CC on Friday, there was some mention of the fact that the 3rd licensee agreed to the same license structure of the first two licensees. I.e., upfront license fee, maintenance fees, and royalties.
I find it interesting that the PR does not include any quotes from Sony, but don't know how to read the omission.
Have to wonder if this license to Sony is somehow tied-in to the "Cell" processor being developed by the JV of Sony Toshiba and IBM. This chip is scheduled for a public unveiling next month. Early info suggests that it will be a huge step forward. A detailed analysis of the "Cell" can be found here: http://www.blachford.info/computer/Cells/Cell0.html
If Sony is planning on integrating LR2 into their "Cell" chips, this would be huge news for TMTA. It also would suggest that Toshiba and IBM might sign on for LR2 licenses.
regards, wsh
wbmw: "That said, I still fail to see how TMTA can be successful as an IP business. They have not proven that they can invent anything as exciting as LR2, and when the usefulness of this technology runs out, they'll have nothing left to offer."
Not sure I understand your point, even beyond the apparent omission of a word or two in the second line of the quote.
Why such disparagement of TMTA's tech? Is your view so "intelcentric" that you cannot bring yourself to acknowledge any contributions to the useful arts from TMTA engineers? How about, e.g., the fact that the 8820 chip can deliver 1Ghz at 3W and is 23% the size of a less than comparable offering from INTC.
Some months back you indicated that you didn't understand how LR2 worked, yet you were convinced that it wasn't all that as there would be a very limited number of possible licensees. TMTA now has three licensees, with expectations for many more (based on comments during the CC), yet, your message of doom continues. Now the tech is likely short lived and the beginning as well as the end of the pipeline of TMTAtech.
I think that TMTA's mgt envisions the company evolving into a licensing house along the lines of ARMHY. That company has a present market cap of over $2.5B. I would think that TMTA might have greater upside than ARM, particularly with the inclusion of LR2 revenues, but even at that market cap TMTA's pps would, indeed, again enjoy double digit valuation.
regards, wsh