full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years
By Rex Nutting
Last update: 3:55 p.m. EST Jan. 8, 2009Comments: 178
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor. Roubini was one of the first economists to predict the recession and the credit crunch stemming from the housing bubble. For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. The unemployment rate should peak at about 9% in early 2010, he said. Consumer prices will fall about 2% in 2009. Housing prices will probably overshoot, dropping 44% from the peak through mid-2010. "The U.S. economy cannot avoid a severe contraction that has already started and the policy response will have only a limited and delayed effect that will be felt more in 2010 than 2009," he said.
SMC: No, not hit yet, and it looks like we've seen the high for today at 42cents. Not sure how SMC share price stays up here with LRR.to fading a little. Arbitragedly curious. Volume seems weak today, so buyers must be leaving early to go snow skiing for the wkend.
Have you heard any hints to indicate another buyer may make an offer for CSM.to before end of January?
'peeker
PS> I do have some concerns about SMC coming off the AMEX though.
Tebow's showing off his BIG 12 & 1/2 GATOR
Dear IHUsBand, my lawyer says that according to common law, I lost your half of my stuff in 2008.
SEC upholds the BIG 12 & 1/2 ...
Larry Flynt likes FL and shows these big Gators in his mag (but still wants a bailout).
More supply to push Natty down ...
Energy Transfer Adds Vital Capacity out of the Barnett Shale (37.25 +0.44)
Co announces the completion of the 31-mile Southern Shale pipeline and the 20-mile Cleburne to Tolar pipeline. The two natural gas pipelines will provide an additional 1.1 billion cubic feet per day of critical capacity from the Barnett Shale natural gas field in North Central Texas, boosting the Partnership's capacity out of the Shale to over 4.5 billion cubic feet per day.
SMC, OK, I've raised my limit sell order again (only going to trim some trading shares; holding longterm shares). At this rate it could be hit by tomorrow AM. I like the longterm story but they have a long time til they raise production with OROSI, so it could fall back on any day that gold is down.
Possible that AUY could buy it on the cheap (even <$1) before we reach our optimistic price targets.
Thanks again!
'peeker
SMC, well I dropped my .37 sell order for 25Ksh (was trying to lighten up, but reconsidered and raised my sell to .39 for now; may let it all ride back to the .40s before reducing).
Nice run on this C|001 recommendation. Congratulations and thanks.
'peeker
ps> On negative side, daily volume seems to have eased considerably since last week. Thus, big seller can drop it down hard in a heartbeat, like Tuesday.
MVCO: Someone thinks the deal won't happen ... traded only 1200sh in first halfhour.
'peeker (btw, I sold my MVCO last week)
Hustler and Girls Gone Wild need bailout, too.
http://sev.prnewswire.com/entertainment/20090107/LAW03007012009-1.html
Oilexco Confirms Appointment of Administrators of Subsidiary Oilexco North Sea Limited
Wednesday January 7, 2009, 10:43 am EST
Yahoo! Buzz Print
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 7, 2009) - Following the Company's announcement of December 31, 2008, Oilexco Incorporated (TSX:OIL - News; LSE:OIL - News; "Oilexco") announced today that its wholly-owned subsidiary Oilexco North Sea Limited was subject to an order from the court appointing four administrators from Ernst and Young to take over the function of the Board of Directors.
Oilexco North Sea Limited's operations will continue to be conducted in a safe and orderly manner.
Oilexco has been advised by the administrators of their intention to retain Morgan Stanley and Co. Limited to continue with the process of the sale of the assets of the North Sea Company.
10:30 Crude oil drops sharply following inventory data; currently off $2.58 to $46.00
10:30 DOE Inventory Data: Crude shows much larger than expected build
Employment Data Whipsawing recent buyers:
December ADP Employment Change -693K vs -495K consensus, prior revised to -472K from -250K
Koz, you're sounding like Janet Jackson explaining it was only a wardrobe malfunction. Don't worry; no reason to go humble; your supporters can handle the truth; you deserve an award for something, right? I mean, you won't lose any fantango by exclaiming your vision while expanding the chest with shoulders back.
PS> Afterall we live in a free country. Now please stand for Roseanne to sing the national anthem.
NovaGold Resources announces increase in financing to US$75 mln (2.22 +0.42)
Tue Jan 06 2009 17:48:54 GMT-0500 (Eastern Standard Time) ET
Co announced that, further to its press release of January 2, 2009, the co has increased its financing by the full $15 mln bringing the total to US$75 mln. NG has entered into binding agreements with additional institutional investors providing for the sale to such investors, on a private placement basis, of an aggregate of 11,538,461 Units for a purchase price of US$1.30 per Unit, for gross proceeds of US$15 mln. Each Unit consists of one common share of NG and one common share purchase warrant of NovaGold ("Warrant"). Each Warrant entitles the holder thereof to acquire one common share of NG for an exercise price of US$1.50 prior to 5:00 p.m. (EST) on the fourth anniversary of the closing date.
ICOG: Court enters judgment in ICO litigation against Boeing (1.10 -0.08) {{{ ICOG up about 40% afterhours }}}
Tue Jan 06 2009 16:22:09 GMT-0500 (Eastern Standard Time) ET
The co announces that the Los Angeles Superior Court has entered judgment on the verdict the company received in its litigation against The Boeing Company and its Boeing Satellite Services International subsidiary. The judgment amount is $631,067,767.00. The judgment consists of compensatory damages of $371 million and punitive damages of $236 million, which the jury awarded in October 2008, plus pre-judgment interest. Beginning January 2, 2009, post-judgment interest will accrue on the full judgment amount at the rate of 10% per annum (simple interest), or $63,106,777.00 per year. Based on available information, ICO believes that the judgment represents the largest jury verdict of 2008.
... most of the time, plus or minus 2 sigma ...
MTW acting very well lately.
Schaeffer's Sentiment Snapshot: Manitowoc Company, Inc.
2:54 pm ET 01/02/2009 - Business Wire
CINCINNATI--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Bullish options bettors have bombarded Wisconsin-based manufacturer Manitowoc Company, Inc. (NYSE: MTW) lately. As reported in this morning's Opening View, MTW saw more than 3,500 calls cross the tape on Wednesday, nearly tripling its average daily volume of fewer than 1,350 contracts.
Further underscoring the recent preference for optimistic options, the stock has seen more than 75 times as many calls than puts bought to open on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) during the past 10 days. This impressive ratio of calls to puts marks an annual bullish climax among options speculators on the exchange.
To continue reading this article, click here: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/sentiment+snapshot+manitowoc+company+inc+mtw/observations.aspx?click=home&ID=90220
Natural Gas ETF?
Soothing pink Pepto Bismol.
Sorry, woke up feeling more erratic than usual.
Actually, I think the correct answer is UNG!
Have a good one.
'peeker
My point was that the use of this board for frequent rants and arguments creates conflict and reduces harmony among various individuals within the VMC community.
I realize that the Free-For-All title was used to allow for just about whatever anyone wants to say or talk about or comment on, but IMHO staying focused on investments would be much less divisive.
It's clear that you like to argue about stuff since most of your posts are either here or on the "Asus' FREE Speech Money Club (ASUS)". Sobeit, if the scope is not changed, I assume the VMC Free-For-All board will be of limited use for investment purposes.
'peeker
TSX Delisting Review - Oilexco Incorporated (OIL)
Monday January 5, 8:45 am ET
TORONTO, Jan. 5 /CNW/ - DELISTING REVIEW - Oilexco Incorporated (the "Company") - Further to TSX Bulletin 2008-1512 dated December 23, 2008, the common shares of the Company (Symbol: OIL) which are being reviewed with respect to meeting the requirements for continued listing pursuant to the Remedial Review Process, will now be subject to the Expedited Review Process.
10:06 Market Update: Commodities Mixed Amid Dollar's Strength
The U.S. dollar index is trading with considerable strength, currently up 1.1%. It was up as much as 1.6% earlier... Gains in the dollar are pushing gold and silver markedly lower... Gold was recently indicated at $849.00 per ounce, which is down 3.5%. Silver, meanwhile, recently traded hands at $10.80 per ounce, down roughly 6.0% this session. Both metals are trading a bit off their lows... Crude oil is showing resilience against the dollar, however. Crude was recently indicated roughly 2.4% higher at $47.50 per barrel. Crude's early gains come on top of the prior week's near-20% gain... Natural gas is trading a bit above the unchanged mark near $5.98 per contract... The gains in crude and natural gas have helped the energy sector outperform the broader market in the early going. The energy sector is currently up 0.6% with help from integrated oil players (+1.6%)... Still, weakness in other commodities has the CRB commodity index trading 0.7% lower. That has weighed on the materials sector, which is off by 1.8%. Weakness is pronounced in Newmont Mining (NEM 38.55, -1.78) and Monsanto (MON 73.10, -0.62)... Dow -92.07... Nasdaq -22.73... S&P 500 -8.98... Trading up: MFLX +24.4%, AHD +17.7%, SBLK +11.2%, SLT +11.2%, DDR +9.5%, OCNF +8.9%, DRYS +8.7%, BKS +8.6%, ARTC +8%, TER +7.9%, PVX +7%... Trading down: CNMD -25.4%, DGII -17.8%, RCRC -16.8%, DHX -16.7%, SKS -15.6%, GSIC -14.6%, SNV -10.5%, LIHR -10.2%, ICE -8%, ALGT -7.7%, UCBH -7.2%, GEOY -7%, GBCI -6.7%.
Jews and Gentiles, please muzzle yourselves during market hours just in case someone wants to discuss non-profitable VMCs...
All the arguments about whether Israel or Palestine is in the right only has the effect of creating disharmony and distrust among the VMC regulars.
Even if the Jews and Palestinians/Hamas cannot get along, we can try to get along here for the benefit of our own VMC collective interest.
JMHO - 'peeker
Religious wars (which make up the majority) usually do suck!
OIL.to, well Schachter was pretty positive at this point and holding his shares to see what shakes out. Mentioned bidders were there, but not sure what final disposition will be. May have to sell whole company or just some assets..
NUS.to news out. Cutting expenses and 30% of workforce. to preserve cash in these uncertain times.
Suggestion: Driving to his home with ropes and torches would be more effective than a conference call.
FH_Trader, hoping financials would come in January is extremely optimistic, but thinking it will come in January is a bit gullible-unrealistic, given the history of TRGD's proven pathological liar CEO.
Didn't know that about the Goldwater Girl; does that mean she can sing and dance? Still, let's resolve to drop all the political chatter which (IMHO) devalues the VMC FFA board.
Let's have a great 2009!
'peeker
BBarryGoldwater couldn't have said it any bbutter.
09:12 NG NovaGold announces USD $60 mln financing with Electrum Strategic Resources (1.47 )
Co announces that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Electrum Strategic Resources providing for the sale to Electrum on a private placement basis of 46,153,847 Units for a purchase price of US$1.30 per unit, for aggregate gross proceeds of US$60 mln. Each Unit consists of one common share of NovaGold and one common share purchase warrant of NovaGold. Each Warrant entitles the holder thereof to acquire one common share of NovaGold for an exercise price of US$1.50 prior to 5:00 p.m. (Toronto) on the fourth anniversary of the closing date.
OT: Er Uh ... Me too neither!
14:31 Russia to stop supplying Ukraine with gas from Jan 1 - WSJ
Energy sh*t hitting the fan ...
Come on now. TARM's Bid x Ask is .15 x .53 so I wouldn't call this a slam dunk yet, since there's such a large spread.
But good luck anyway.
'peeker
AGM: I believe their dilenquency rates will increase.
I have a farm, and the guy who rents it to do the farming had an horrendous year due to high fuel costs, high fertilizer costs, and low crop prices. Lost his shirt in the dirt, so to speak. He's not alone.
Ethanol driving down oil prices?
Just wondering about how much ethanol production is reducing crude oil demand vs. impact of reduced gasoline demand. If anyone knows what percent of gasoline now consists of ethanol vs. the crude oil-based portion of gasoline, I'd really be interested to know.
Taken at face value, the market price of ethanol per gallon exceeds the cost of crude-based gasoline per gallon, thus last year's legislation mandating increased ethanol production for use in gasoline (to reduce use of crude oil for gasoline) appears to be adding to the overall price of a gallon of gasoline. If that's all there was to it, Congress should overturn the legislation and stop producing ethanol to add to gasoline, thus further reducing the cost of a gallon of gasoline. However, if ethanol production has significantly reduced demand for crude oil to make gasoline, then it may be important to keep the legislation in place just to help keep crude oil prices down, thus benefiting the consumer and American economy (also reducing dependence on foreign oil; reducing money going to Saudis and Russia and Venezuela, etc).
'peeker
PS> Happy and Prosperous New Year to all y'all VMCers!
DOG picks for '09:
Oil: 63
Gold: 1111
Dow: 9630
My 3 Swings:
SMC
NG
AGT
Yo, is anybody here using Tradestation? I'm thinking of starting an acct there so I can use a tech trading tool my bro-in-law came up with.
Fees are a bit confusing, but it appears I can opt for a flat fee for trades and the $99/mo platform fee is waived if I trade as few as 5000sh/mo.
Any impressions of Tradestation by existing or previous users (or pointers to any known Tradestation discussion boards) would be much appreciated.
TIA - 'peeker
Thinking of opening an acct w/ Tradestation and was wondering about your quick impressions as a new user of their platform.
Any feedback or resources such as user forums would be much appreciated.
'peeker