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TRXC - Much of my stock called away via 4, 4.5, 5 calls. I had small amount of 3.5 rolled to Nov and those are now OTM. Quite a bursting of the FOMO psychology. Now that it is the 2's again, thinking of getting some shares back. Starting to sell a few puts. ISRG didn't achieve a $1B valuation until they had prostate clearance and ~100 installations (although utilization back then was considered good at 2 procedures/week) and questions about whether long term adoption will occur. TRXC has the latter risk as well given the dominance of ISRG. $1B valuation would be 4+ using O/S of 240M.
I envision lots more paperwork and meetings. I think back to a tech that worked for me years ago. Kid putting himself through Caltech that wrote Linux code before people ever heard of open source. Super smart, super innovative. I don't see him fitting within IBM culture. If he is at Redhat before the news, he won't be there very much longer. There are lots of Linux opportunities out there. Google and Amazon for example. Even Microsoft, anywhere but IBM.
More on housing -
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-10-25/housing-market-is-tanking-in-the-northeast
The author doesn't get the difference in property taxe rates between existing housing and new developments in CA, because of Mello Roos fees. Tax advisor told us that majority of people doesn't realise the tax hit yet, not till they file in April.
Rickshaws in India makes a better living after replacing ICE with E.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-25/india-s-rickshaws-outnumber-china-s-electric-vehicles
Prices are going down in SF bay area where I am visiting. It will go from extremely unaffordable to barely unaffordable. I have not seen full page ads (with link to property website) dedicated to lower priced property in a long time. Probably the last time was coming out of the subprime debacle. Even a summer ago, a well located place will get multiple bids before a listing even makes into the ads. It is also very difficult to find labor to do basic maintenance and repair work. I don't know how long this anti immigration mind set goes on before people realize that those people contribute work and money to the economy. Amazon felt it, I expect WMT will feel it too. Base material costs going up too and that impacts finished materials that go into buildings.
IMO What the leadership did under Raymond makes them very vulnerable to legal liability. At least the Rockefeller foundation felt that way.
https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/12/08/the-rockefeller-family-fund-vs-exxon/
Don't know how far that gets but the deception started under Lee Raymond. I wasn't at the meeting where he told other top major execs that they will be ready with dikes around Port Author refinery because nothing will be done about global warming. While funding "science" casting doubt about the subject. I got this from a person that attended the meeting, years ago.
That was really stupid.
Dont get the wsj anymore. Can you summarize on specifics? TIA
As of late June 2018, no surgical robotics, DV or otherwise deployed to war regions. DARPA has experimented in the past. Seems it would be way cheaper to fly someone out to Germany to get lower ab surgery. There are no war wounds surgical robots afaik. It is always entertaining to hear a non-scientist on the attack because he thinks he is the best scientist in the room.
https://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/on-the-cutting-edge-of-robotic-surgery/
The times are skin to skin in the NIH article, not just the cut times. If you want to compare apples to apples, Senhance total hysterectomy times are about the same. It will also depend on how many procedures the surgeon has under his/her belt with whatever system is being used. The surgeon in the video you posted is excellent as the instruments move like it is part of her body, and she can probably do origami with her skills.
For Senhance times, See https://vimeo.com/216529572 for example.
I agree wrt articulation, that the DV is more human like. However, with cables, you are limited on miniaturization and IMO Xi instruments are at limit. IMO Senhance articulation is good enough to address many procedures. DV will still be best for prostate, the other CEO has said so and stated in a conference call that if he had to undergo prostate resection, he would pick DV. The software change I wrote about is mostly regarding human motion vs lap motion.
Articulation will be available on Senhance at 5mm probably mid-2019 in the US. You do realize that going from lap motion to DV like motion is just software, although I don't see them doing unless there is desire to go head to head with isrg.
Where did you get the time of 20 minutes for DV TAHBSO?
Didn't know about Afgan remote procedures. Where can I read about it and do you know what type and how many were done?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3904541/
Above link shows average DV tahbso times of ~200+ minutes
WY - what are your current thoughts RE industry in general. I am just thinking about the similarity to fossil fuel industry. Upstream vs downstream and how housing cycle impacts building materials vs trees timing wise, and the differences between upstream (WY, BCC, etc) versus something like LP. Why do you like WY compare to BCC or LP for example? Are there regional considerations? Comments appreciated. TIA
PTI- Playing chicken. Had a strangle limit order in. 1 went off and I cancelled the rest. The volatility pricing doesn't make sense to me. Skew is very negative but then one sdev move down is < $2.5 ??? One sdev move up is around $13, much more plausible IMO. I will probably close out strangle soon or at financing whichever comes first.
VCEL - knee cartilage scaffold for sports injuries and skin scaffold for burn victims. Anybody here looked at this space? Appreciate comments and thoughts if so. Company has ~$2/sh in cash and ~$1.7/sh in sales with high GM. 3 yr cagr of 15%+ with less than 10% penetration. Age limit is 18-55 (pre knee replacement). Watching HS football game a few weeks ago in football country where there must have been half a dozen kids limping off with lower leg injuries throughout the game reminded me to look at this. That plus a price alert today.
http://investors.vcel.com/system/files-encrypted/nasdaq_kms/assets/2018/10/03/9-32-25/Vericel%20Company%20Presentation%20-%20FINAL%20October%201%202018.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-22/this-implant-helps-heal-knees-with-a-patient-s-own-cartilage
BA - I have had worse, ISRG for example. What was the reason you sold and when? What would entice you to buy? IMO their more recent strength has to do with the perception of long term pricing of fuel and health of airlines. So if MBS carries through with his threat of squeezing oil exports. There may be opportunities.
BA/Airbus - BA taking a hit this morning because of potential switching of orders to Airbus at some Chinese airlines. Negotiations started in May on narrow body jets.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-19/chinese-boeing-client-said-to-be-in-airbus-talks-amid-trade-war
Link?
Option players pricing in $5 move 29 days out and $2 in one day. Stock not backing down much. Haven't looked at CF so I pass.
Great article about AMZN and WMT attempting to customize online retail model to antiquated delivery infrastructure and cash based purchasing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-18/amazon-battles-walmart-in-indian-e-commerce-market-it-created?srnd=businessweek-v2
I have no idea how much AFMD is worth. Kept the shares from before the announcement and hedged with calls on the second day after announcement (thanks due DD regarding his comments about price discovery). Those are now all OTM expiring this week. The clinical hold sell off bottom should hold is my guess. If not, I would probably add below 3.
GOOG - Bruno Mars dancing robot dog. Honda threw in their towel on Asimo back in June. LOL.
IBM - CFO comment during CC
"Our clients value our incumbency,"
There in lies a major assumption leftover from mainframe decades. GE probably had that assumption too.
EYPT - Today was the opposite of yesterday. Started strong and ended up where we started before FDA clearance. Closed exactly at warrant exercise price. There must be ATM selling pressure anticipated. Not sure how much Yutiq is worth even though it is 1st line therapy. If they get 100% of the market, it would be around $8K X 30K cases/year. $8K is from Iluvien DME pricing (licensed to Alimera).
EYPT - FDA clearance for Yutiq for non-infectious posterior segment uveitis. That was yesterday, 3 weeks ahead of PDUFA. I wasn't paying attn. Stock had some volatility yesterday and ended strong.
The tax package increase in housing cost is more immediate. For a $400K house (for example only as that gets you attached small housing where I am), a 1 percent ramp in mortgage increase housing cost by ~240/month. New housing tract prop tax rate typically at 3.5% to pay for new infrastructure, schools, etc.. (aka Mello Roos) or ~100/month depending on tax bracket. Detached housing would be in another level of pain. That's why apartment buildings are still very active and rents high. Lennar for example are building lots of those.
The charts should be reviewed on the symbols I posted. Note when the decline on all but one of those stocks started. Way before the recent ramp in 10 yr yields.
Mortgage and prop tax limits have definitely affected the markets where I am. Talked to a developer over the situation yesterday and they are now only building stuff far away from the coast. The very top end custom stuff is still going on but even that is slowing down.
Homebuilders and RV industry hasn't been doing so hot since the passage of the tax package. Yachts are still doing OK since most of those folks will get big refunds.
WGO THO PII TOL KBH LEN BC
The Chinese EV startups are going with Lidar (as does Waymo) and the systems are getting smaller as shown in video. Musk claims that Lidar is not needed for self driving but then also recently tweeted that it is very hard to cover all "general" situations. IMO he is waiting for Lidar miniaturization before changing his stance. My guess is that computational power is close to good enough already for non racing situations.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-06-28/xpeng-motors-says-tesla-s-entry-would-help-china-s-ev-market-grow-video
I would have thought Waymo virtual miles a lot higher since Tesla is at 8 million real world miles per day now and going through the roof now with acceleration in Model 3 output and deliveries. There is a new video review of enhanced auto pilot performance on curvy roads posted on inside EV website. Fascinating.
TRXC - clearance of 3mm microlap instruments. Nice option in addition to 5mm devices and IMO the latter will continue to dominate in usage. Da Vinci devices are 8mm. Also announced previously was that 4 systems were sold in Q3. I guessed 16 for the whole year at the beginning of the year. 6 more systems in Q4 meets my expectations. I was hoping for a bigger showing in the USA though.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20181011005213/en/
That's when a frac job accidentally extend into an existing wellbore via growth of frac fluids/proppant during actual completion. Fracs can also grow during later production/injection operations from EOR for example.
Short term oil prices and when pigs fly. Not mentioned is el Nino forecast for coming winter - unknown strength. $9/mcf NG?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-10-08/saudi-aramco-ipo-will-happen-when-pigs-fly-kilduff-podcast
SA, Aramco IPO, etc ... Going in whole and coming out in pieces.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/senators-warn-saudis-of-consequences-over-critic-who-disappeared?srnd=premium
Seems the market is pricing in the probability that high prices won't last or that there will be lack of growth in new completions. EOR is not a big revenue opp for them so a shift in the direction would not help. Overlay that with interest rates ramp and we may be seeing the beginnings of real correction/bear, finally.
Honda joins GM self driving effort. I am sure Waymo is a difficult pill for car makers to swallow. Just last week was driving an optioned out Accord with Garmin navigation and their latest cruise control package on some nice hilly roads. Drives nice but sensor detection and steering feedback lacking especially at night. Garmin has some nice features showing nearest food and fuel choices but still not to the level or features of google maps. I am sure waymo would have any car maker that wants their package use the cell phone business model. IE Your data is our data, and our data is our data, and we will be nice to let you get 10% of advertising revs. LOL
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-03/gm-cuts-in-front-of-waymo-to-seal-self-driving-deal-with-honda?srnd=hyperdrive
Not sure about this one. I suppose this can be for when visibility is low and there is some permanent features buried in the roads or if there are IEDs buried in a combat zone. If conditions are bad for robotic driving sensors, then they won't be much better for human drivers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/self-driving-cars-still-can-t-handle-bad-weather?srnd=hyperdrive