full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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SMC ... thanks for the quick answer ...
AGT ... doing great today; maybe I don't get to buy more under .30 afterall
SMC ... when is their resource report due out?
I think we were expecting it any day until someone on BTO-SMC company conf call said it would be delayed awhile..
AGT sales as of 11:25 this AM:
price volume (according to TradeStation; only to 2decimals)
.31 ... 110595
.30 ... 343198
.29 ... 500363
.28 .. 1269251
.27 ... 300358
.26 .... 59423
.28 is where it's happenin', but it's happenin' much slower now than at the open.
'peeker
(got mine today at .28-.285 today, but looking to buy lower before the CEO speaks after the close tomorrow)
c|001, I had been watching AGT for a few days and was surprised when you posted late today that AGT was in breakout mode on large volume. I'd been holding off because of the overhang, but like you said that large block trade had to be SAS heading for the exits.
I wasn't able to score any AGT (bidding on the cheap) today. We must assume that volume will drop on Thursday, but the buyers may show up as you suggested.
Then tonite I was actually in the process of admiring the NXG chart when you posted the followup "table pounder" message.
That NXG chart does look good (below), but the fact that AGT is much closer to mining gives them a great edge to breakout significantly AS SOON AS FINANCING IS ARRANGED. The fact that the CEO is talking on Friday (credit to MSGI) after the close suggests that Th-Friday may indeed be good days to buy.
When you were researching SMC, I think you said you contacted someone who implied they were working toward financing needed for Orosi, and that indeed did come soon thereafter (via bid from Linear), so it's obvious you deserve an "A+" for your excellent homework. I'm concerned that AGT may just fall back to .20ish if strong volume doesn't continue for a few days. Have you had any conversations with anyone at AGT to indicate financing is in the works short-term so that their mine can ramp up quickly in the coming months?
Thanks again for sharing your recommendation and reasoning on AGT (and SMC before that)!!!!
Because I've got so much GORO and SMC already, I will probably watch gold closely the next couple of days and see if it stays above $900 before jumping into AGT in a big way.
FYI: NXG chart:
Markopolos testimony about Madoff situation is probably having a negative impact on the market today. He's identifying maybe 12 large European "feeder funds" tomorrow that have not yet admitted their own exposure to Madoff. When they come out tomorrow it should hurt European mkts directly.
JMHO
'peeker
BTO has a good idea in trying to snap up undervalued jrs, but they cannot expect to snare many prize rabbits like SMC, so their desire to grow thru acquisitions may produce little more than D I L U T I O N.
I would not expect their next acquisition to cause as big a jump in share price as did their announcement to buy SMC.
'peeker
Hard to get realtime SMC/CSM.to/BTO.to/BGLPF.pk quotes to see which way stock prices are moving.
Could someone please suggest a site w/ free realtime Canadian stock quotes?
It looks like gold's move down over the last couple of days is putting a lid on BTO/SMC for now. Volume pretty strong on SMC this afternoon, so I can only surmise that some are heading for the exits after today's conf call, though I heard no bad news other than the delayed Orosi reserves report (43-101).
OFI: I just got back into this one at 4.20 in a small way after selling half my PMGLF.pk
Sorta like my own little "oil for food" program. Now it's time to sit back and yearn for good earnings.
BTO rep said they may have to finance about $20million somewhere down the road. Not sure which prospect he mentioned that would be for. Sounds like the $10million for Orosi development is imminent, so that should provide good cashflow by yr end.
PMG.to continuing to move higher (on recent good drilling results) ...
'peeker
Guess again. I think I sold my MVCO at a loss and bought OILEXCO.
tuh! Real life is crueler than dry wet dream.
BTO.to falling back to earth and dragging SMC with it, rather than SMC going to the moon today.
Today's earlier post (thanks to JT_Options) with all the charts shows some of the PM jrs are rolling over today as gold contracts.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=35262355
nutz ... 'peeker
SCOM; new contract sounds great, but just remember govt business is typically low margin (terms like "cost plus fixed fee"), so increased revs will not produce blockbuster profits.
Petrominerales Corcel-D1 Mirador Recompletion Produces 8,770 BOPD
Monday February 2, 2009, 12:13 am EST
BOGOTA, COLOMBIA--(Marketwire - Feb. 2, 2009) - Petrominerales Ltd. ("Petrominerales" or the "Company") (TSX:PMG - News), a 76.4% owned subsidiary of Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd. ("Petrobank") (TSX:PBG - News), is pleased to announce that our Corcel-D1 exploration well is producing 8,770 barrels of 26.4 degree API oil per day, at an 8% water cut, from 56 feet of high quality sand, following a successful recompletion in the Mirador formation. Corcel-D3, the next well in our multi-well Corcel drilling program, was spudded on January 31.
Orito
Our Orito field production is still ramping up following the cessation of the general strike in the Putumayo province. We have also successfully finished drilling Orito-163 and will then spud Orito-171. After Orito-171, we intend to temporarily suspend our Orito drilling program as part of our strategy to refocus capital deployment to the highest value-add areas of our portfolio during this period of lower commodity prices.
Neiva
We are currently drilling the eighth well in a multi-well drilling program at Neiva. We have completed and placed two of these new wells on production using a new completion technique. Initial rates from these first two wells represent a significant improvement over historical performance. Together these two wells have added an incremental 911 bopd, in which Petrominerales has a 69% working interest. Company interest production at Neiva is now 1,050 bopd.
Current Production
With the Corcel-D1 well back online, early success at Neiva, and some production still off-line at Orito, the Company is now producing in excess of 25,000 bopd. We will provide a further operational update following the approval of our independent reserve report, which is expected by the end of February 2009.
Petrominerales Ltd.
Petrominerales Ltd. is a Latin American-based exploration and production Company producing oil in Colombia with 16 exploration blocks covering a total of 1.9 million acres in the Llanos and Putumayo Basins and 2.6 million acres in the Ucayali Basin of Peru. Petrominerales is 76.4% owned by Petrobank (TSX:PBG - News).
OIL.to Two North American companies have indicated a willingness to buy all the assets of failed Canadian North Sea explorer Oilexco, writes Steven Vass.
TWO NORTH American companies have indicated a willingness to buy all the assets of failed Canadian North Sea explorer Oilexco in a deal that could raise up to £1 billion.
American companies have indicated a willingness to buy all the assets of failed Canadian North Sea explorer Oilexco in a deal that could raise up to £1 billion.
Although the companies have not been named, it raises the prospect of a bidding war when administrator Ernst & Young prepares a shortlist this month.
There had been fears bidders would only want the plum assets, complicating the sales process. The prospect of a clean sale will be seen positively by Oilexco's creditors, an RBS-led syndicate which is owed around £500 million.
Canadian giants Nexen, Petro-Canada and Talisman, together with Texas-based Apache Corporation, are all seen as likely contenders for the assets.
Anyone who pays up to £1bn is getting a good deal.
The Oilexco sale is seen as a vital test case for what North Sea assets are now worth. Oilexco controls both productive fields and promising concessions.
Its central North Sea fields produce around 12,000 barrels of oil per day and according to E&Y will soon produce 30,000. Its most valuable assets are stakes in the Huntingdon and Moth fields.
Toby Pierce, oil analyst at Tristone, said the problem with valuing Oilexco was twofold: it is unclear what will happen to the oil price, and there is uncertainty about the value of the Huntingdon field.
Al Stanton, an analyst at RBC Wealth Management, agreed that it was difficult to be accurate about the size of Huntingdon but said it was likely to be higher than some pessimists believe.
"Anyone who pays up to $1.5bn £1bn is getting a good deal," he said. "But only a small fraction of the Huntingdon field has been drilled up. You need to get your geologists in to evaluate it properly."
Stanton added that the assets appeared too big for medium-sized Scottish explorers like Dana and Venture Production.
Oilexco's market capitalisation late last week was just £26m, indicating that the markets are expecting a deal worth not much more than £500m once debts are taken into account.
09:19
Cost of insuring Treasurys has soared - WSJ
WSJ reports the annual cost of insuring $10 million of five-year Treasurys is about $66,000, up from $7,680 a year ago, according to Markit. That implies rising anxiety about Uncle Sam's finances as he underwrites ever more of the financial system. But say you bought CDS protection on Treasurys and the government actually ends up in default. That would impair the world's ultimate "risk-free" asset, likely causing even more extreme financial chaos globally. Given that, would the financial institution that sold you protection, even a foreign bank, actually be able to pay out? Put another way, Uncle Sam's profligacy has created demand for insurance on its debt. But what is the reason for all of that spending? A need for huge bailouts to save the very institutions that write CDS contracts. So why is there a market at all? A recent study found high correlations between CDS prices for different sovereigns, as well as with U.S. high-yield bonds and stocks. That suggests CDS on Treasurys are being used not just for U.S.-specific risk but as a leveraged bet on financial turmoil. Given the disconcerting circularity at the heart of the CDS market, true apocalypse aficionados would do better sticking with a more traditional fallback, like gold.
Closing of the CSM - B2Gold Transaction is set to occur by no later than April 30, 2009.
08:32 DRYS DryShips faces fresh debt blow - FT (6.63)
FT reports the co is likely to retain the liability for a $650 mln debt accumulated to build an offshore oil-drilling business it now wants to spin off, the company has admitted. The co is also in breach of the conditions on nearly half its $3 bln borrowings and has no guarantee that it will be able to reach agreement with its creditor banks about changing the conditions, it has declared in filings with the SEC. Martin Sommerseth Jaer, an analyst at Arctic Securities, said that the SEC filings underlined the "extreme leverage" in DryShips. "One thing is, of course, the dry bulk side of it," he said. "But most of the liabilities have been within the rig side." The SEC filing outlines Dry Ships' desire to spin off to its shareholders Primelead Shareholders, a subsidiary that owns offshore drilling interests including Ocean Rig, an Oslo-listed company taken over in April last year. If the spin-off were to go ahead, the company would ask its banks to release it from guaranteeing Primelead's remaining debt, it says. But without the lenders' agreement, Dry Ships will retain the liability for the $650 mln outstanding debt without gaining from Primelead's future income. Two banks have also informed DryShips it has breached the conditions of $752 mln of its debt, the filings say.
PMG.to making a nice move the last few days. I guess somebody is finally giving them credit for the last well results.
Anyone know any more about this (low volume) PMG.to move?
Are 2 TAS.v weeks shorter than 2 TRGD.pk weeks?
'peeker
sorry... couldn't help myself...
meanwhile ... good luck with your rain yum stocks.
Buying 5000sh of PMGLF.pk cost me $72.65
01/22/2009 Buy 1,900.0000 PMGLF PETROMINERALES LTD F
Details $4.50000 -$8,577.72 $27.72
01/22/2009 Buy 400.0000 PMGLF PETROMINERALES LTD F
Details $4.50000 -$1,805.84 $5.84
01/22/2009 Buy 2,700.0000 PMGLF PETROMINERALES LTD F
Details $4.50000 -$12,189.39 $39.39
Total Schwabbie commish: 27.42 + 5.84 + 39.39 = $72.65
Schwab shows current pink sheet price based on Canadian stock (better than Ameritrade), but Schwab commission on the transaction is MUCH HIGHER than a standard pink sheet trade at Ameritrade.
Schwabbie is grabbing the big bucks on pinkie version of Canuck stocks.
Eventually ... sortalike:
if you keep throwing post-it notes at a wall 10ft away long enough, eventually one sticks.
12:28
Sector ETF leaders & laggards here @ midday
Midday ETF Sector Strength:
Reg banks- RKH +12.9%, KRE +7.2%, Commercial banks- KBE +11.9%, SPDRS financials- XLF +11%, IYF +9.3%, IAI +6.4%, Insurers- KIE +8.7%, SPDRS homebuilders- XHB +6.7%, iShares REITS- ICF +6.7%, Steel- SLX +6.5%, SPDRS metals/mining- XME +6.3%
Midday ETF Sector Weakness:
Gold miners- GDX -1.9%, Gold- GLD -1.2%, US dollar index- UUP -0.5%, Crude/WTI oil- USO -0.2%, OIL -0.7%, US bonds- TLT -0.1%, BND -0.2%
10:30 DOE Inventory Data: Another large build in crude, but modest draws in distillate and gas.
Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 6218K (consensus is a build of 2900K); gasoline inventories had a draw of 121K (consensus is a build of 2000K); distillate inventories had a draw of 1005K (consensus is a draw of 1000K).
SMC ... though your scenario would be nice, the world is NOT perfect. Your finding and sharing SMC with VMCers was a perfectly wonderful thing to do, however. Much thanks!
SMC and BTO.to prices should be directly linked but they have been moving in opposite directions today (however, I do not have realtime Canadian quotes).
Fasssssst Electric Car by Shelby
http://www.shelbysupercars.com/news-012209.php
Government plan to buy bad debt from banks may come next week: CNBC
By Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:18 p.m. EST Jan. 27, 2009Comments: 53
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Shares of big banks including Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America jumped during late trading Tuesday after a report that a government plan to buy toxic assets from the industry may be unveiled next week.
The Obama administration is close to deciding on a plan to purchase non-performing and illiquid assets from banks and the proposal could be announced early next week, CNBC reported late Tuesday, citing unidentified industry sources.
The so-called "bad bank" plan, would address the key problem of how to price the assets by using a model-pricing mechanism, CNBC said.
The model would take into account the government's ability to hold the assets, even to maturity, and pay for them with cheap funding. That could mean the government pays more than current market prices for the securities, CNBC explained.
However, if the government ends up paying less than the value at which the assets are carried on banks' books, the banks would issue common equity to the government, CNBC reported.
The Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program has already invested more than $150 billion in banks, but that was done through preferred shares being sold to the government. There's now a growing feeling that preferred equity isn't enough to make the banks healthy, CNBC said.
Citigroup (C: 3.55, +0.22, +6.6%) shares climbed 9.3% to $3.88 in late trading, while Bank of America jumped 11% to $7.19.
J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM: 24.96, +0.46, +1.9%) and Wells Fargo (WFC: 16.19, +0.71, +4.6%) advanced more than 3%.
The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF: 9.14, +0.31, +3.5%) , which tracks all the financial stocks in the S&P 500, rose 4.2% in late action.
Greg Morcroft is MarketWatch's financial editor in New York.
16:09 Canada govt unveils C$39.9 bln 2-yr fiscal stimulus plan - DJ
Whuddabuncha Canuckleheads!
Kipp, bad news is you are not diversified, proving once again that concentration can be used effectively to leverage profits in special situations (such as SMC).
Now can you do someting to make KCL.to start moving up again?
Best Regards,
'peeker
Oilexco Comments on Recent Trading Activities
Tuesday January 27, 2009, 1:36 pm EST
Yahoo! Buzz
CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 27, 2009) - At the request of the Market Surveillance, on behalf of the Toronto Stock Exchange, Oilexco Inc ("Oilexco" or "the Company") (TSX:OIL - News; LSE:OIL - News) advises that it is not aware of any corporate developments that would be impacting the trading of its stock. On Friday, January 23, 2009, the Company issued two press releases in the UK containing the names of several Company insiders who had stock purchased on their behalf as part of the Company's Employee Stock Purchase Program. Such purchases are administered by an independent body and occur routinely at a pre-determined date once per month. The announcements of such stock purchases are also considered routine and in accordance with UK regulations.
OIL.to doing great today. Maybe their assets are being viewed as valuable afterall, even as they approach a receivership situation..,
Anyone owning OIL.to anymore???
TIA for any insights regarding why this stock price has rebounded from under .10 would be appreciated.
'peeker
Plagiarizing the late, great Felipe Alou ...
BTO be berry good to SMC!
Thanks again to c|001 for good analysis and the SMC evangelism on this board.
'peeker
10:17 Record Low Consumer Confidence :
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report hit a new record low of 37.7 in January. That was down from an upwardly revised reading of 38.6 (prior 38.0) and slightly below the consensus estimate of 39.0. However, it is down sharply from the 87.3 reading seen a year ago. There were declines in both the Present Situations (from 30.2 to 29.9) and Expectations (from 44.2 to 43.0) indexes. Notably, there was an increase in car-buying plans within six months, but there wasn't any pickup in plans to buy a home in the next six months or any major appliances.
What? Peter Schiff was WRONG?
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html
GERN probably overpriced here ...
10:53 ET Geron: Best case scenario is for initial data in mid-2010; tgt increased to $7.25 - UBS (7.78 +0.69)
Before the open, UBS raised their tgt to $7.25 from $4.50, keeping a Neutral rating. Firm notes GERN has received clearance from the FDA to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its human stem cellbased therapy, GRNOPC1, in patients with complete thoracic spinal cord injuries. A single dose will be tested in 8-10 patients, with safety and efficacy as the primary and secondary endpoints, respectively. Firm believes the best-case scenario for initial data is mid-2010, with late-2010 or early 2011as more likely. Firm says there are approx 12,000 new cases of spinal cord injury each year in the U.S. which could all ultimately be eligible for treatment with GRNOPC1. With ~24% of these cases being classified as complete paraplegia and ~76% of those resulting from thoracic injury, firm estimate the initial opportunity at ~2,200 pts/year.
KiK, SPCK acct receivable's way up ???
"Superclick ended the year with cash on hand of $781,520 and accounts receivable of $2,142,205. Accounts receivable at the end of fiscal year 2007 were $834,813."
11:54 Gold Miners Index -GDX- sets new high of 33.98, testing its 200 ema at 33.98 with the Jan/three month high at 34.45 (33.99 +2.53)
Gold GLD and Silver SLV have broken through similar levels.
ICOG at .60/sh has mkt cap of approx $94million, and Boeing has been ordered to pay ICOG $631million (almost 7 times current mkt cap), including significant punitive damages. Unless the judgement is totally overturned, ICOG should get a nice boost when Boeing pays. Will they receive $631million? No, but they will receive something sooner or later, so this nonprofitable stock should eventually pop when the BA buggers eventually relent and settle with ICOG.
'peeker
11:00 COMDX ... DOE Inventory Data: Builds across the board once again, including much larger-than-expected increases in crude and gas
Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a build of 6100K (consensus is a build of 1400K); gasoline inventories had a build of 6475K (consensus is a build of 1800K); distillate inventories had a build of 790K (consensus is a build of 500K).