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Waymo - official launch of beta self driving rides in Az and around HQ. With safety drivers for now.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-13/waymo-to-start-first-driverless-car-service-next-month?srnd=technology-vp
Having observed first hand what happened in the Palo Alto area with one Waymo van (with engineer in driver position), I will pass for now. I doubt the service will make my area with narrow unmarked streets anyway.
Naivety leads me to having both. Approximate equal $. Assuming that most people that own MDGL knows about VKTX and vice versa, there must be some reasons for valuation difference. Perhaps timing, maturity of trials, disease severity/stages and IP runway. I choose not to argue with market perception wrt mdgl/vktx. Also probably a bad assumption to assign the same percentage premium to different companies, ie assume acquiring company(s) are stupid.
PS. back to question, who are the likeliest companies to want these molecules.
Who will be the likeliest acquirer IYO?
EIX down again as well. Three Mile Island and public services of NH redux, even though nature dominant in one case and 100% human error in the other? I suppose global warming consequences can be considered a human error so insurers will eventually try to blame and go after the deepest pockets.
Time premiums negative and trending towards zero on both sides of weeklies.
"Camp Fire" naming is not meant to tell how the fire started. We have dry high winds still. There hasn't been substantial rain state wide for months and lots of dying and dead trees from years of drought. All that was needed was a spark and I can see how 50-60 mph wind gusts combined with 115 KV lines can lead to fires, even if PG&E do their by the book maintenance. This past fire season was devastating up and down the whole west coast up to northern BC. We don't hear as much about the BC fires because only trees die up there.
Nature is unforgiving. Then there are the green extremists (see below). I have a green extremist in my area that is against goats eating the hillside ridges for fire lines. There are choices. People that live in future fire prone areas pay extra for reducing fire risks. Or PG&E get out and let the fire prone areas form their own utility districts.
https://www.sacbee.com/latest-news/article219315140.html
ps. i sold a few 40 puts.
Cost of transition on the transport/grid side -
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-04/electric-cars-face-a-6-trillion-barrier-to-widespread-adoption
PCG - getting killed again because of suspected high voltage wire as cause of major norcal fire. We are suppose to be past fire season (Oct) but conditions have been dry and windy. This will be a major problem for all the electric utilities out on the west as the dry/hot season extend later. Ocean temp higher than usual too so rain should come if the jet stream moves. Problem is Jet stream has become more and more slow moving with each year whether it's been la nina or el nino. Right now it is neutral.
Brown signed law passing cost of high voltage caused fires to payers, rightly so.
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/california/articles/2018-09-21/new-california-law-helps-utilities-with-wildfire-lawsuits
Attempting to sell a few puts.
TRXC - Earnings call transcript below. Bounce from sub-3s continue. Numbers came in as preannounced. 4-5 systems guided for Q4. My guess was 6. The more important metric will be US system sales as that tells whether system can penetrate the ISRG stronghold. European sales going well. US slow. Q4 US sales will be telling.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4220198-transenterix-inc-trxc-ceo-todd-pope-q3-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
Botched MV surgery - how to turn a simple procedure into a disaster.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6367481/Patient-died-robot-used-heart-op-surgeon-99-chance-surviving.html
Vcel - I have some from recent lows. Wasn't done buying yet unfortunately.
Doubled my holdings this morning. VCEL had clinical program in DCM and apparently decided at some point that repairing knee cartilage was a better business. I agree with them. See mssg link below for intro.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=144335308
LOL. Have you heard of Norway?
Vcel - +50% HOD. I guess nobody follows.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=144701228
RDS - Ceraweek keynote session with Van Beurden and Yergin. IMO RDS is years ahead of XOM in looking at approaches to energy transition while maintaining sustainable profitability through it. Biggest moves in recent past has been BG takeover and divestiture of Canadian oil sands, in the works for years.
https://ondemand.ceraweek.com/detail/video/5358093459001/opening-dialogue-with-ben-van-beurden
XOM - Darren Woods interview at Singapore forum. Comments on demand, regions, Sourcing, chemicals, demand sensitivity to EV, etc.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-11-06/exxon-ceo-woods-on-trade-china-demand-acquisitions-video
HAIR - Q3 earnings release. Systems sales seems to be recovering after release of new system capable of both harvest and implant, as expected. Revenue low compare to average consensus and I have no idea how sell side guessed what happens and when wrt timing of sales recovery. Company moving to a flat fee per procedure model for new system. Old system is still on fee per graft model. Similar level of system sales guided for Q4. Could be some sandbagging as system sales didn't get going till late in Q3.
http://ir.restorationrobotics.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=254648&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2375249
NVO - Slow but steady growing company. What level of valuation would attract your interest?
Saxenda is a small and growing part of their business relative to diabetes. Their presentation of Q3 results are concise, 4 slides. Wish other companies can do the same.
https://www.novonordisk.com/content/dam/Denmark/HQ/investors/irmaterial/investor_presentations/2018/20181101_Investor%20presentation%20Copenhagen_Q3%202018.pdf
They give serious weight to ethics, so wondering how this non-prescription business will be handled.
https://www.novonordisk.com/content/Denmark/HQ/www-novonordisk-com/en_gb/home/sustainable-business/performance-on-tbl/responsible-business-practices/business-ethics-and-anti-corruption.html
NVO - haven't looked at this yet. Who else addresses market or have clinical pipeline.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-31/brazilians-binge-on-weight-loss-drugs?srnd=premium
The bloomberg article suggest the settlement is just the beginning of a nationwide problem. Thoughts?
In the Kai Fu Lee interview, his opinion was that human like AI, ie with creativity and empathy abilities, is at least 10 years beyond task specific AI.
In the Musk interview podcast today, he also makes a distinction between specific application self driving (for example, city of Palo Alto or county of Santa Clara) and general self driving (state or countries). Highways vs. suburban streets vs. both.
AI/AGI gladiatorial battles. Some jaw dropping numbers on massive deployment of people in market share battles within China. 600K hiring on one project in TCEHY vs BABA battle. GOOG, BABA, TCEHY, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA, Uber, Waymo, etc ...
AGI much further out.
https://open.spotify.com/show/47jQcyRcrM1EoV0sU39N9F
ALKS - Not a surprise given the briefing doc. Hadn't follow ALKS and curious to find that they were using an opioid because of the risk to an already vulnerable population. Looking at the decades old HamD17 scoring also was a teaching moment about what MDD patients must be going through. How does suicidal ideation end up as number 3 item on the list. Seems like that ought to be number 1? Talk therapy works well (assuming that is placebo protocol). Lots of questions for a field that is hard to quantify and measure.
It is time to try something else besides talk therapy and SSRI.
https://www.cell.com/cell-reports/fulltext/S2211-1247(18)30755-1#secsectitle0010
Thought it was time to make it consistent with the other site now that I have more time and inclination to post.
ALKS - briefing docs. Different animal - opioid. Comments specific to spdc starts in page 22. They used some abbreviated scoring (not HamD17) that FDA staffers clearly disliked. Plus the data is not so hot judging by the plots even with abbrev scoring.
https://www.fda.gov/downloads/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/Drugs/PsychopharmacologicDrugsAdvisoryCommittee/UCM624537.pdf
I have to look at acad slides again. Based upon HamD17 scale, it looks like placebo non responders weren't even considered depressed on average - how did they get into trial?
ps. No I read the ACAD slides wrong. The numbers are deltas, not absolute scales.
That suggest a lack of communication with operations at NYC headquarters. Those closer to the fields drove the costs down almost as fast as the drop in postings. I am far away and I heard about it second hand several weeks into it. Perhaps they need to move folks to Tx.
Subgroup analysis available from companion study on NIH data in the same issue of NEJM.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1804923?query=TOC
Thx. I don't follow them enough to understand their needs to hedge so aggressively coming out of the supply induced crash.
It wasn't obvious to me at all. I thought like the researchers in the study that MIS would give equivalent efficacy to open surgery. Either they didn't get it all with the limited vision or the procedure spread hpv/cancer cells somehow.
ISRG/TRXC - MD Anderson randomised study of open vs MIS surgery for early cervical cancer. Not good for MIS.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1806395?query=featured_home
ACAD - thx. Two other trials coordintated out of MGH were offered up as reference examples of what typically happens using protocol.
Here are two examples, sourced from this presentation. https://t.co/0Ew3MNmGow pic.twitter.com/AEeuF1ctNb
— Biotech Beast (@Biotech_Beast) October 31, 2018
"This is HES’ first GAAP quarterly profit since 2014."
That's not good indication for future profitability unless they were hedging when prices were bouncing off bottom. What's their average lifting cost?
ACAD - Assuming you are right and that it is garbage, why would someone like Fava put his reputation at risk? Below is his most recent conflict disclosure, as of June publication (on mindfulness/pain). Or perhaps the whole field is viewed as BS so there is no way to measure efficacy as proposed. In essence, do you believe someone like AF or someone like Fava. Do we assume AF has no axe to grind.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Dr Fava has received research support from Abbot Laboratories; Alkermes, Inc.; American Cyanamid;Aspect Medical Systems; AstraZeneca; Avanir Pharmaceuticals; BioResearch; BrainCells Inc.; Bristol-Myers Squibb; CeNeRx BioPharma; Cephalon; Cerecor; Clintara, LLC; Covance; Covidien; Eli Lilly and Company;EnVivo Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Euthymics Bioscience, Inc.; Forest Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; FORUM Pharmaceuticals; Ganeden Biotech, Inc.; GlaxoSmithKline; Harvard Clinical Research Institute; Hoffman-LaRoche; Icon Clinical Research; i3 Innovus/Ingenix; Janssen R&D, LLC; Jed Foundation; Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Research & Development; Lichtwer Pharma GmbH; Lorex Pharmaceuticals; Lundbeck Inc.; MedAvante; Methylation Sciences Inc; National Alliance for Research on Schizophrenia & Depression (NARSAD); National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine (NCCAM);National Coordinating Center for Integrated Medicine (NiiCM); National Institute of Drug Abuse (NIDA); National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH); Neuralstem, Inc.; Novartis AG; Organon Pharmaceuticals; PamLab, LLC.; Pfizer Inc.; Pharmacia-Upjohn; Pharmaceutical Research Associates., Inc.; Pharmavite® LLC;PharmoRx Therapeutics; Photothera; Reckitt Benckiser; Roche Pharmaceuticals; RCT Logic, LLC (formerly Clinical Trials Solutions, LLC); Sanofi-Aventis US LLC; Shire; Solvay Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Stanley Medical Research Institute (SMRI); Synthelabo; Takeda Pharmaceuticals;Tal Medical; Wyeth-Ayerst Laboratories; has been an advisor/consultant for Abbott Laboratories; Acadia; Affectis Pharmaceuticals AG; Alkermes, Inc.; Amarin Pharma Inc.; Aspect Medical Systems; AstraZeneca; Auspex Pharmaceuticals; Avanir Pharmaceuticals; AXSOME Therapeutics; Bayer AG; Best Practice Project Management, Inc.; Biogen; BioMarin Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Biovail Corporation; BrainCells Inc; Bristol-Myers Squibb; CeNeRx BioPharma; Cephalon, Inc.; Cerecor; CNS Response, Inc.; Compellis Pharmaceuticals; Cypress Pharmaceutical, Inc.; DiagnoSearch Life Sciences (P) Ltd.; Dinippon Sumitomo Pharma Co. Inc.; Dov Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Edgemont Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Eisai Inc.; Eli Lilly and Company; EnVivo Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; ePharmaSolutions; EPIX Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Euthymics Bioscience, Inc.; Fabre-Kramer Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Forest Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Forum Pharmaceuticals; GenOmind, LLC; GlaxoSmithKline; Grunenthal GmbH; i3 Innovus/Ingenis; Intracellular; Janssen Pharmaceutica; Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Research & Development, LLC; Knoll Pharmaceuticals Corp.; Labopharm Inc.; Lorex Pharmaceuticals; Lundbeck Inc.; MedAvante, Inc.; Merck & Co., Inc.; MSI Methylation Sciences, Inc.; Naurex, Inc.; Nestle Health Sciences; Neuralstem, Inc.; Neuronetics, Inc.; NextWave Pharmaceuticals; Novartis AG;Nutrition 21; Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc.; Organon Pharmaceuticals; Osmotica; Otsuka Pharmaceuticals; Pamlab, LLC.; Pfizer Inc.; PharmaStar; Pharmavite® LLC.; PharmoRx Therapeutics; Precision Human Biolaboratory; Prexa Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; PPD; Puretech Ventures; PsychoGenics; Psylin Neurosciences, Inc.; RCT Logic, LLC ( formerly Clinical Trials Solutions, LLC); Rexahn Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Ridge Diagnostics, Inc.; Roche; Sanofi-Aventis US LLC.; Sepracor Inc.; Servier Laboratories; Schering-Plough Corporation; Solvay Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Somaxon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Somerset Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Sunovion Pharmaceuticals; Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Synthelabo; Taisho Pharmaceutical; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Tal Medical, Inc.; Tetragenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; TransForm Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Transcept Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; VistaGen; has received speaking/publishing fees from Adamed, Co; Advanced Meeting Partners; American Psychiatric Association; American Society of Clinical Psychopharmacology; AstraZeneca; Belvoir Media Group; Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Cephalon, Inc.; CME Institute/Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.; Eli Lilly and Company; Forest Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; GlaxoSmithKline; Imedex, LLC; MGH Psychiatry Academy/Primedia; MGH Psychiatry Academy/Reed Elsevier; Novartis AG; Organon Pharmaceuticals; Pfizer Inc.; PharmaStar; United BioSource,Corp. and Wyeth-Ayerst Laboratories; has equity holdings in Compellis and PsyBrain, Inc; holds a patent for Sequential Parallel Comparison Design (SPCD), licensed by MGH to Pharmaceutical Product Development, LLC (PPD); and a patent application for a combination of Ketamine plus Scopolamine in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), licensed by MGH to Biohaven; holds copyrights for the MGH Cognitive & Physical Functioning Questionnaire (CPFQ), Sexual Functioning Inventory (SFI), Antidepressant Treatment Response Questionnaire (ATRQ), Discontinuation-Emergent Signs & Symptoms (DESS), Symptoms of Depression Questionnaire (SDQ), and SAFER; and receives royalties from Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins; Wolkers Kluwer; and World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte.Ltd.
So did the Citi analyst that wrote the note play dumb or is he actually dumb? How can he put a note out like that without understanding what he was reading, or talking to someone with expertise in diabetes and heart failure that often go together?
ps put premiums now shrinking.
They had chronic heart issues. One with AV node issue, one ischemic heart failure with associated symptoms. I am guessing he died from arrhythmia as well. When I read the footnotes, I immediately sold a few puts. Put prices still expanding so I may continue.
We could use a Halloween emoji to go with that. Selling a few ITM puts to go with the screams of horror.
EYPT - Yutiq is due for Q1 2019 sales. However, it seems there is big opp for Dexycu in post cataract surgery inflammation due for Q2 2019 release. Don't really understand why it takes 1+ yr post FDA clearance to get going on sales to surgery centers given the high interest from clinicians in using Dexycu. Funding for building up sales team obtained from institutional investors earlier this year so there may not be financing risk for now. Lacking info on pricing.
http://investors.psivida.com/static-files/c5f67386-b2a7-4f76-a255-b251608e31dd
I am an Elway fan but this dispute is silly given the current state of drilling and completion technology. Any company with engineers worth a d__n knows how to drill and complete from well pads with multiple wellheads. This should not be a problem in wide Colorado at all. Half a mile distance is a good idea given the level of H2S common in overthrust belt reservoirs.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/it-s-sergey-brin-vs-john-elway-in-colorado-s-oil-drilling-clash?srnd=premium