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Thx. Basically all the big independents. I will take a look when I have time. Is there a favorite out there that people here has special interest in? No dog in this debate but curious about details.
No longer have subscription. Did author provide any company names so we can look up presentations? There has always been problem wells and fields not making forecasts so my question would be "why is this special?".
I guess you must be a comfortable short.
More on Waymo potential vs reality. Applies to all self driving AI efforts.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-31/self-driving-cars-a-main-event-at-ces-keep-tapping-the-brakes?srnd=hyperdrive
Or they are splitting the cost increase with new buyers. Tesla prices effectively goes up $1750 per car. IMO a reasonable answer to the reduction in tax credit.
Aside from the problem of housing costs outrunning wage gains, it has been getting difficult to find contractors in our area for small jobs. There is just a lack of basic support labor (unskilled stuff like demolition, moving building materials) and the general contractors have a long wait list. That's been the case for over a year now. It was very easy to find extra labor help to do low end stuff that would have wasted my skilled contractor's time during remodel 5 yrs ago.
MYOK - SNY opts out. Any thoughts? I have no position currently.
http://investors.myokardia.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=254211&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2381818
O&G 2018 review - Ugly for everyone except the two I mentioned, Lukoil and Gazprom (I assume rosneft did ok too). HAL was actually a forewarning on oil price postings as field supervisors that have to approve expensive well projects were months ahead of the herd. Even NOV which I consider steady Eddy is acting very sick. XOM as sickest of the majors (dipping below 2015 crash) is not good.
IMO Something significant is happening beyond the noise of excess light oil production via shales. What it (or they are) is and where we are wrt timing will be subject to debate. As for Aramco IPO, SA is SOL.
Sigh, another conspiracy theory about why something is failing economically. They could do a grep edit and make it about coal now or deep water GOM in a few years.
Two words - SHALE and MONEY.
2018 in review - I was a few days late.
WY - I sold a few $21 puts monday that will expire tonight. Dinner money. Still think it is still good for another 10%. Not sure if this does a bungee rebound or wiffle ball rebound, ie 10% and done.
EU energy performers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-28/green-power-becomes-gold-dust-for-europe-s-utility-investors?srnd=markets-vp
>>>>
Other winners include Orsted A/S, which in just a few years has transformed itself from Denmark’s national oil and gas behemoth into a nimble publicly-traded company specializing in erecting giant wind turbines offshore. Fossil-free power producers Electricite de France SA and Finland’s Fortum Oyj also advanced, gaining 30 percent and 15 percent respectively.
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Yes I do feel like Waymo vans are following me whenever I visit their home turf.
I need to be more gentle with my Waymo comments since what they are attempting in often unmarked suburbia roads is undoubtedly more difficult than marked highways with no potential for school age kids around.
You know the saying about giving the man enough rope ... in this case RJ aka Richard Johnson.
Waymo - Way not ready for prime time. They are trying hard but I observed that the AI must be extremely anti social. School was out and there are 15 mph (low with wide ramps) bumps that are painted. Three of them, at each one the Waymo van comes to a rolling stop to go over the bumps. By the last one, there must be have a dozen cars behind it (mine included) wondering what's going on. I get up next to the van at the red light. Two big bang theory types had their laptops probably trying to figured out what just happened. The light turns green. I go and I saw the van wait a second before going. Tesla has the Mad Max mode. Waymo only has the geriatric option for now.
I doubt there is much publish stats on tight wells with fracs. There are probably historical case studies on conventional and offshore wells. I thought the stuff had mostly died with the tight production.
I had to do a double take when I saw the subject title. Somebody was sold a bill of goods wrt sliding sleeve completion. I wonder what the sales pitch was. That sales team will do well in the car lot outside of a body shop. They must have kept the fishing companies busy.
RE - "economy growing over 3% (best in what 9 years)."
So we ramp the growth of gov. deficit to 6% of GDP /yr via the tax cut just to gain an extra half a percentage growth in real GDP? Is it worth it? We are late in the cycle and deficit is suppose to be going lower.
WY - China may have shifted wood imports to Canada and Russia given the current state of affairs. Noticed in appendix of slides that China lumber imports were rising rapidly.
WY - Noted. Investors liked the merger so the lows established prior to and post merger doesn't make the comparison more comforting. I see subsurface rights as part of the southern region timberland. How much royalty revenue do they get? I assumed it is de minimis.
WY - Surprised that it couldn't hold early 2016 lows. Seems like it wants to follow crude oil rather than builders that are hanging on finger nails above Oct lows.
They will do a forensics exam and find out what happened. Just like they did for the bullet in the battery case. The battery packs have armored bottoms so it will be interesting to see how the pack got punctured.
They missed the one where the owner shot a hole in the battery pack from his back seat and tried to claim a loss. So now this guy somehow managed to puncture his tire and battery at the same time. I wonder how. Lots of idiots in the world.
As promised 1 year ago as a result of debate of merits of TMD and TRXC. Here are current MC and EV of respective companies. I left out share price because of reverse split. I also didn't count the TMD warrants as they are so far of the money and newer ones are not listed so hard to assign probability of getting into money. I use 240M o/s for TRXC to take into account employee options and restricted stock.
TMD EV ~ 5M MC ~ 25M
TRXC EV ~ 440M MC ~530M
Below is from exactly one year ago.
-----------------------------------------
Lets mark the EV and share prices down and revisit this in a year.
In USD
TMD EV ~150M SP 0.30
TRXC EV ~290M SP 1.92
These are the 2 companies that share the same posters so I assume that you will love to keep score.
I have no further interest in TITXF as a long play until share prices change or until they get clinical usage started. Until next year.
Agreed. Last time was housing bust so the whole building industry and suppliers were epicenter. TOL holding Oct lows and during recent dumping is good.
WY - builders have been trying to put in a bottom. WY hits a price alert I placed a while back. 6% dividend now but they have cut that in past recessions.
Re energy. Obvious that utilities will grab increasing share of energy production at expense of FF companies. How fast and whether we are already seeing the impact are questions.
FTSV gets around the same MC haircut as SURF today but still higher than 6 months ago. AS of today, SURF is down 70% in 6 months like TRIL.
SURF - closer to 33% or 100M in market cap. I guess we can conclude that their one IgG4 molecule was worth around that much.
FGEN - delayed reaction I guess. Not sure why people sold into the small move yesterday after it has been almost cut in half already prior to China roxa approval.
It will probably take a visit to the mid 30's before this is over. At least crack spread is not narrowing further.
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/refined-products/rbob-crack-spread-swap-futures.html
Refining stocks should be holding up better than this so there is stress on the gasoline demand side as well as supply stress on crude side. Traffic is not getting any better in my area.
Perhaps it is a fear of expropriation via unreasonable state pricing. Also 2H launch is disappointingly slow apparently.
FGEN - muted reaction to China approval. Any guesses on roxa value to FGEN from China? I don't recall the company giving any guidance.
Haha. Not a bad idea actually. At least we know head carrying is work related whereas I am sure there is a lot of waste in the mapping data. It would be interesting to map worker productivity vs rise of social media with time on X axis.
Mapping world energy usage per capita in Kg of oil equivalent. There is around 135 Kg per barrel. China needs a further doubling to reach EU and Japan levels. India trailing far behind even though it is increasing fast.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?type=shaded&view=map&year=2015
Judge ruled that getting rid of individual mandate (added to tax reform bill) makes ACA unworkable and therefore unconstitutional. That was GOP's intention. Life gets interesting for folks on the exchange, including yours truly.