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Agree. The foundation/outline of the article could easily have been constructed before being unblinded as I am sure LL, Ashkan, et al. knew what they wanted to write and how they wanted to present the data. What needs to be done once unblinded is to add data, values, examples and conclusion. Though it won't be very fast to adapt the data to their outline, it shouldn't take very long time either. They have plenty of experience in writing these and will have the help of their assistants and staff to get this done.
You are right. I think the part of SOS that LG mentioned that was an item he had hit on the nail and that he couldn't comment on is the example he had in his article on the brief TLD PR. I think we should expect a very brief TLD PR in the near future. After that, it might be a while before they roll out the detailed version at either a conference or in a journal article. There are still information to PR after TLD, such as Sawston Phase I completion.
Patience, my fellow longs. We are sitting on a winner. Let LP and Co. do their thing and we will get to Bountyland. If you live in a warm weather place, go play golf and enjoy the fall. If not, put on some warm clothes and go for a walk.
This is not a placeholder. This is participation from LL, who might or might not have new things to bring up. She will speak regardless of how far NWBO has come with available public information.
We have a winner. The only questions remaining is timing. Timing of TLD is the first stepping stone. For most of us who are in it for the full trip to Bountyland, this one is not that important, as it really doesn't matter what the short term SP is. It is a human nature issue to get into the conversations about things influencing the short term SP, but in the scheme of things, kind of irrelevant. I am fine waiting 12-24 months before we reach Bountyland. There will be many milestones along the way. The only good thing about TLD sooner than later is that it means we are on our way.
Trumps feeble attempt to reduce drug prices will be futile, according to a friend of mine from law school who is currently working on the staff of a Republican senator. GOP was furious with him for the executive order, but calmed down when they realized it would have little effect. The Senate GOP's have prevented the Dems from pushing this through for years.
I agree that it doesn't sound very plausible, but the quarter we just finished was without any lockdown in Europe and very few travel restrictions, so Dr. Ashkan might have been able to treat some patients.
I would imagine that the value will in the long term be based on revenue and using it in combination as well should increase the revenue.
Hopefully she will have something new to discuss.
TDA have NWBO releasing earnings tomorrow. Do any of you know when this is happening? These brokerages are not always reliable with this kind of information. If they really have had around 250 non-trial patients this year, they might actually have decent revenue to report.
Agree 100%.
I agree. What I meant was that I am certain that they did accept the endpoint changes, as we have had DL and the UK, and EU RA's have changed the endpoints. There's no reason to do anything publicly that could create problems with FDA and make the discussions about approval harder.
$50M Revenue would be roughly equal to 250 patients through UK Compassionate use program (Not sure what the exact UK term is, but equal to what would have been termed compassionate use in US), if the $200k number that has been floated around here is the right price for the patients. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me. As the trial has progressed and the blinded results have looked amazing, it is likely that LL and Dr. Ashkan has been receiving inquiries from fellow doctors and have told them about the potential for their patients. As it is cost prohibitive for a lot of people, most have probably not been able to afford it, but a 250 number doesn't seem out of line.
I understand that company have not been forthcoming in regards to earnings calls in the past, but if a significant increase in revenue due to an influx of patients not in the trial is correct, maybe we will see one this week, hopefully in connection with a PR on TLD (The old 2 barrel). If not maybe next quarter, as I assume that there previously haven't been significant income to discuss.
Agree 100%. People need to be able to differentiate between SAP acceptance and FDA approval. SAP acceptance have happened, but approval will be in the future.
According to my CEO friend in the bio pharma industry, they could also have told you a fib. He has never heard of a placeholder abstract, as conferences would never accept such a thing. The abstract submitted have to be certain enough for them to accept it. If they didn't have demands for the level of abstract submitted, every bio pharma company would submit to every conference, just in case.
They might have meant it as a placeholder, but they probably had to submit enough of an abstract to get admitted to the conference. These conferences have deadline to withdraw, and in the case of SITC, it was Oct. 15.
Please don't misunderstand me, but DI can pretty much tell you anything in a phone call without any legal consequence.
I am sure you are right and this is what has actually transpired, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a different tone Monday morning. It doesn't really matter as the market is currently closed and if SITC does publish whatever they submitted, Company would know it in time to send out a PR Monday morning.
I will only post what I have been told by those with experience in this industry. I will not engage in speculations without clearly stating that it is just my opinion. I think anything else is irresponsible.
GLTA and patients.
Then we can hope for TLD after hours and a roll out of DCVax at J. Galbraith this afternoon. Key word is HOPE. Now there should be no embargo in place to prevent company for TLD after hours and roll-out by LL an hour later.
Have fun all of you. Going golfing so I can be home by LL power hour.
To all the posters who have said that they didn't have time after DL to properly submit to SITC, because of the Oct 12 deadline.
1. They submitted the abstract, a sign they wanted to be there.
2. The abstract can be either comprehensive or sparse when it comes to information revealed.
3. They have not yet submitted the poster for the poster presentation they signed up for.
4. The response from Lykiri's correspondence with SITC, clearly leaves the door open for them to add the poster. Probably just an upload to a link already provided to them with little more for SITC to do after that.
5. We should all be able to agree that they have had time this week to construct the poster presentation.
6. According to my friend with experience in this industry, submitting the poster at a time when leaks can influence valuation is highly unlikely, which means that they would probably not submit anything until after close of markets today.
Those are CLEARLY JUST MY OPINIONS, based on my reasoning and Monday morning will show if I am right or wrong.
So as I previously stated, there's still the option for the authors to submit a poster after close of today, which all along would have been the standard operating procedure for a publicly traded company (as per my bio pharma CEO friend).
Maybe this will once and for all put an end to the speculations about SITC until we know Monday.
If they are not going to present and PR TLD in connection with SITC and most people agree that they have the unblinded results, then they would have waisted the first very important week of the 45 days delayed warrants. I just don't see this making any sense.
I tried calling, but Ms. Gearhart was not available.
Pablo, Thanks for your hard work. Would it be possible for you to post the reply that states that the company will definitely not have a poster at the conference. I have not seen that in your previous posts. I have seen that they have did not submit a poster as of yesterday, but nothing saying that they could not add a poster after 4pm EST today. TIA
I also added to my pregnant position at 1.23, 1.2 and 1.17. LOL, Hopefully I am giving birth any day now.
They did submit the abstract. I am feel hopeful they will deliver poster after close of market today, as it would contain sensitive information and for a publicly traded company that could be the cause of a leak. This is just my opinion, but each conference will have different rules for publicly traded companies in order to avoid any SEC violations.
There's tons of support in the low 1.30's.
Trying to read anything out a a day of trading on an OTC stock will make anyone go crazy. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on what happens today. MM's, day traders and shorts will cloud the picture.
THIS WILL NEVER HAPPEN AND IS PURE FANTASIZING ON MY PART.
I doubt she will spill the beans, but it would be absolutely fantastic if she did something to force the hand of the company. I am not sure if the SEC would come down hard on company, as the markets are closed and it will have no influence on the SP, if Company remedies with a filing and PR prior to Mondays open.
I would love to see this event as a DCVax-L roll out, but I think this lecture is unrelated to NWBO. She is invited as the keynote speaker, which is a great honor, but based on her career achievements and not to discuss DCVax TLD. I hope she does hint at next weeks SITC and how she might be looking forward to sharing the news with the world, which I think is ok for her to do, even without a PR or SEC filing.
Those are very kind words, Senti. I am well aware that a lot of you have many years of experience with the management of NWBO and that they have not exactly been acting to the liking of most long term investors.
I do think that we are in unchartered waters right now. They have now completed the trial and announced DL. This is an event that should have changed their playbook and have put them in a situation where they more or less have to follow certain guidelines that have previously not been in play.
LP has fought for this company for a very long time. She has refused to sell out due to fear of BP shelving this very important drug and has done whatever is in her power to get this drug to the patients. She has lend her own money to Company and had to do some very creative financing in order to keep this ship afloat. From what I have read about LP, this is her 'lifework' and she has done an amazing job getting it this far. I am assuming that for the last few months, she has used her relationships in the industry to come up with the right approach to get this across the finish line.
I have full faith, despite many posts on this board telling me not to, in LP and her ability to do what is best for the company. Now that they have had a chance to look at the data, there is no way that the extension of the warrants would be done if this is not to be able to creative a roll out narrative, without having to worry about any clouds hanging over the SP in the near future. To be honest, it kind of surprised me that she would do the extension, as the company has not shown any special affinity to protect the short term SP before. Their previous behavior seems to tell me that they would have let the SP take a hit and then worry about it when they were ready to roll out their news. If ESMO is the plan, then why not just deal with the warrants and take the hit. There would have been ample time to come out with news between Nov 1 and ESMO, to move the SP back up after taking a hit from the added shares on the market. The extension gives them 45 days to line up news in a well orchestrated manner so they can keep the upwards move going and create a momentum that would be able to withstand the additional shares. This is just my opinion, but it is based on my experience. Coming out with any news when publicly traded is always tricky and having multiple potential news stories in the near future demands a carefully orchestrated timeline. The extension gives LP an opportunity to be in complete control over this timeline (except for the delay Covid might create). The Nov.1 original date for the warrants was probably set because she thought things would have been ready to roll out by Labor day. Delays, likely caused by Covid's interference in collecting data, getting people from all over to analyze and discuss the data and completing Sawston, made this original timeline impossible.
I tend to get longwinded, so sorry about the length of this post. Keep up the good work, Senti and other very knowledgeable poster.
Love those self-gratifying replies to other people's posts.
1. Please don't quote a sentence taken out of context. That is not very nice. When followed by an explanatory sentence, you should have the decency to include that as well.
2. Why don't you enlighten me about the ironic and comedic aspects of my statement, that when you release great news, you in general don't do it when you know there's an event a few days later that might have a negative effect on the SP.
You are 100% right. I was told about this company by a friend who is the CEO of a Biopharma back this summer. I bought in at $0.31 and have gradually added to my position as news have surfaced. I have been investing for 30 years, the last few as a full time job. I am a retired CEO of a subsidiary of a publicly traded company and the only thing I bring to this board is experience in corporate governance and general corporate legal experience. I have very little Bio Pharma knowledge, but as long as I have people who can guide me in those areas, including many industry knowledgeable people on this board, I think I will do ok.
This is my last message for the day, so here goes:
We are in the middle of Covid-19. The time it would take to get published in a renowned medical journal is extremely long and right now even longer, due to massive amounts of covid related trials going on. If you guys really think they will not come out with TLD before they can announce a publication, you are delusional. We would be looking well into next year.
The 'normal timeline' for TLD after DL seems be be a few weeks. Add some extra time for Covid and we will be looking at right around this time.
The only thing SITC has stated is that Company have submitted an LBA, but at this time no poster for the virtual poster room. Any poster discussing the result (We are submitted under a 'Completed Clinical Trial', hence the result would be available) would include sensitive material in regard to previously undisclosed information. There is an inherent chance of leaks by submitting such material. If they submit this poster at anytime between Friday after close and Monday morning, said leak would be insignificant as market will be closed. The fact that this SHOULD be SOP for any normal publicly traded Bio Pharma company, tells me that there's still a great likelihood that we get TLD before open on Monday, but likely after close tomorrow. I think the chance LL will be discussing anything about unblinded information is not great. She has been personally invited to give this lecture and she has other trials and treatments she can talk about. I think the chance of her mentioning that she feels comfortable with the blinded results and the future of DCVax-L and Direct, is great. She might even hint at her participation next week at SITC and how she is looking forward to presenting the trial results (That would likely be ok to mention even without a TLD prior to her lecture.
I think the lack of information has made people go nuts and delve into some highly speculative scenarios. I don't mind that, as I doubt it has much influence on the SP and company long term, but worry that this panic has made some people sell and thereby lose out on a potential windfall when news comes out. I don't think they will completely miss out, as we should see so many points on the timeline in the future that will move the SP up.
End of quarter or not, I do not see the Dec. 15 delay as significant in regard to ESMO. I think if ESMO was their plan, they would have pushed it further, as an immediate attack on SP after TLD and presentation is not ideal.
As mentioned before, the 45 days delay, has IMHO provided LP with breathing room to carefully create the perfect roll out narrative to combat the release of the warrants Dec 15:
1. Teaser tomorrow from LL how she is looking forward to next week.
2. PR TLD sometimes after close tomorrow and open Monday.
3. News that Sawston Phase ! is complete
4. News about RA approval, including changing of endpoints with FDA
5. News that they are working with a reputable journal about publication.
- Move to NYSE
- Partnership Agreement
- Increase in Production capacity
And some of you could probably add quite a few more items that would move the SP long term.
That was a friggin' long post, so thanks to those of you who made it to the end.
Will be back here with 15 more posts tomorrow morning at 5 PST.
Good Luck to longs and patients.
I have no knowledge about how detailed the abstract submitted prior to Oct. 15 would be, but from the response it looks like even if they do not submit the poster, the abstract will still be included in the JITC publication. Am I wrong for assuming that?
Also, they might not have submitted poster due to a chance of a leak and will do so after market close on Friday to make sure that no leak will have influence on SP, which is what I think.
Gary,
Love your posts and respect your opinions. I am doubtful we will see any run up prior to TLD. I hope I am wrong, but those who have wanted to invest, have more or less done so. I think the rest are willing to pay more with less risk and are waiting for TLD, as there's going to be many more bullets in the chamber after TLD for company to fire off. I think you are low on your post TLD SP prediction. I think there are plenty of people on the sideline waiting for TLD (Some of the current investors might even have saved some cash for a more certain investment) and they will drive up the price in anticipation of all the future news that company will have, Regulatory approval, Sawston, Publication, Direct, etc.
LOL, I have also invested in this for my grandkids, in their account (Which I control until they turn 18). Neither them nor their parents know about this account, so won't have to worry about being kicked out of family, should it not work out.
As a very long, who has no real interest in short term SP, I am not worried about when they release TLD. That being said, I do agree that all signs point to a PR on or before Monday. If before, it will obviously not include any results, but merely mention SITC and TLD forthcoming in connection with SITC.
C but have buy orders in at 1.33, 1.30 1.25 and 1.20 for today, should we experience a dip.
Nice find.
This article could have been written over the last many months, with minor adjustments inserted for the actual numbers. LL should have been well aware of the basis for the article for a long time. I do think that the publication people were talking about was the fact that SITC's website says that these presentations will be published in JITC once the conference begins.
Fully vested in this and have very little info on CVM, other than it's another target of basement boy MRC. I am 'missing out on 4 months of day trading because of NWBO, but hopefully it will be worth it in the end.
I completely agree. I am 99% sure they would not have cancelled SNO if they weren't going through with SITC. They would have cancelled SITC first and waited with decision on SNO if they weren't ready. I don't know if we get TLD tomorrow after close, but I would be surprised if they didn't PR the lecture tomorrow (if about NWBO, as this is an invited lecture that bestoves honor on lecturing speaker, so she could theoretically talk about anything related to her field) and SITC after close of markets tomorrow. They have a track record of same day PR'ing presentations.
I agree. If they had PR'd SNO, this would have been bad news. They have purposely not mentioned anything about any of the presentations, as they were waiting to find out when they could release TLD. The fact that they cancelled SNO seems to me to be a huge positive as they have realized they can get TLD ready by SITC. I don't know how the J. Galbraith Lecture fits in, but for TLD timing, that means nothing as there's no trading days between that and the publication of posters for SITC on Monday morning pre-market.
If you guys are worried, then you should follow your instinct and sell a position of your shares. Nobody should ignore their own instincts based on ANYTHING written on this MB. Use it as a guidance, but don't get swayed by people like me, who are obviously posting based on my own interpretation of the events leading up to now. I know just as little about the thinking of NWBO as most of you do, but all the events of the past few days lead me to think that we should look at this cancellation as good news and a confirmation that TLD will be before open on Monday.
You are all welcome to roast me on Monday if I am wrong. GLTA and Patients.
From their website, it will be a poster presentation, but the three listed authors will be available for two 30 minutes Q&A on Wednesday AND Friday. I am not sure if this will be considered a publication, but JITC will publish the posters according to their site. JITC is getting bigger, but not sure this would qualify as a major publication yet. They added 10k+ subscribers since last year, but they didn't mention how many total subscribers they have. If you are in the Immuno Therapy world, this is probably a decent publication, but unsure about the reach in the medical community in general and news organizations specifically.