Friday, November 06, 2020 8:50:11 AM
I do think that we are in unchartered waters right now. They have now completed the trial and announced DL. This is an event that should have changed their playbook and have put them in a situation where they more or less have to follow certain guidelines that have previously not been in play.
LP has fought for this company for a very long time. She has refused to sell out due to fear of BP shelving this very important drug and has done whatever is in her power to get this drug to the patients. She has lend her own money to Company and had to do some very creative financing in order to keep this ship afloat. From what I have read about LP, this is her 'lifework' and she has done an amazing job getting it this far. I am assuming that for the last few months, she has used her relationships in the industry to come up with the right approach to get this across the finish line.
I have full faith, despite many posts on this board telling me not to, in LP and her ability to do what is best for the company. Now that they have had a chance to look at the data, there is no way that the extension of the warrants would be done if this is not to be able to creative a roll out narrative, without having to worry about any clouds hanging over the SP in the near future. To be honest, it kind of surprised me that she would do the extension, as the company has not shown any special affinity to protect the short term SP before. Their previous behavior seems to tell me that they would have let the SP take a hit and then worry about it when they were ready to roll out their news. If ESMO is the plan, then why not just deal with the warrants and take the hit. There would have been ample time to come out with news between Nov 1 and ESMO, to move the SP back up after taking a hit from the added shares on the market. The extension gives them 45 days to line up news in a well orchestrated manner so they can keep the upwards move going and create a momentum that would be able to withstand the additional shares. This is just my opinion, but it is based on my experience. Coming out with any news when publicly traded is always tricky and having multiple potential news stories in the near future demands a carefully orchestrated timeline. The extension gives LP an opportunity to be in complete control over this timeline (except for the delay Covid might create). The Nov.1 original date for the warrants was probably set because she thought things would have been ready to roll out by Labor day. Delays, likely caused by Covid's interference in collecting data, getting people from all over to analyze and discuss the data and completing Sawston, made this original timeline impossible.
I tend to get longwinded, so sorry about the length of this post. Keep up the good work, Senti and other very knowledgeable poster.
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