This is my last message for the day, so here goes:
We are in the middle of Covid-19. The time it would take to get published in a renowned medical journal is extremely long and right now even longer, due to massive amounts of covid related trials going on. If you guys really think they will not come out with TLD before they can announce a publication, you are delusional. We would be looking well into next year.
The 'normal timeline' for TLD after DL seems be be a few weeks. Add some extra time for Covid and we will be looking at right around this time.
The only thing SITC has stated is that Company have submitted an LBA, but at this time no poster for the virtual poster room. Any poster discussing the result (We are submitted under a 'Completed Clinical Trial', hence the result would be available) would include sensitive material in regard to previously undisclosed information. There is an inherent chance of leaks by submitting such material. If they submit this poster at anytime between Friday after close and Monday morning, said leak would be insignificant as market will be closed. The fact that this SHOULD be SOP for any normal publicly traded Bio Pharma company, tells me that there's still a great likelihood that we get TLD before open on Monday, but likely after close tomorrow. I think the chance LL will be discussing anything about unblinded information is not great. She has been personally invited to give this lecture and she has other trials and treatments she can talk about. I think the chance of her mentioning that she feels comfortable with the blinded results and the future of DCVax-L and Direct, is great. She might even hint at her participation next week at SITC and how she is looking forward to presenting the trial results (That would likely be ok to mention even without a TLD prior to her lecture.
I think the lack of information has made people go nuts and delve into some highly speculative scenarios. I don't mind that, as I doubt it has much influence on the SP and company long term, but worry that this panic has made some people sell and thereby lose out on a potential windfall when news comes out. I don't think they will completely miss out, as we should see so many points on the timeline in the future that will move the SP up.
End of quarter or not, I do not see the Dec. 15 delay as significant in regard to ESMO. I think if ESMO was their plan, they would have pushed it further, as an immediate attack on SP after TLD and presentation is not ideal.
As mentioned before, the 45 days delay, has IMHO provided LP with breathing room to carefully create the perfect roll out narrative to combat the release of the warrants Dec 15:
1. Teaser tomorrow from LL how she is looking forward to next week.
2. PR TLD sometimes after close tomorrow and open Monday.
3. News that Sawston Phase ! is complete
4. News about RA approval, including changing of endpoints with FDA
5. News that they are working with a reputable journal about publication.
- Move to NYSE
- Partnership Agreement
- Increase in Production capacity
And some of you could probably add quite a few more items that would move the SP long term.
That was a friggin' long post, so thanks to those of you who made it to the end.
Will be back here with 15 more posts tomorrow morning at 5 PST.
Good Luck to longs and patients.
