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Guys dont SELL. Not ONE pill sold yet! This is like owning Eli Lilly before they sold their first pill. Or microsoft before they sold the first copy of DOS. Dont bail out before the first sale!
The SP will be much higher by end of year!
You have just seen the first salvo. People are starting to hear about Anavex. We always wondered how word would get out. Now we know...SAVA created the interest and a lot of investors ended up with AVXL.
Year to Date gain 176%...a little over one month.
IMO best of luck longs!
LOL, Bourbon still loving your videos. You are the king of Gifs!
The good news is, one way or another, A LOT MORE INVESTORS KNOW ABOUT ANAVEX NOW THAN THEY DID A WEEK AGO !!!
Bodes well for sp support.
Claytrader, no help needed, everyone here fine. Thanks
Always insightful posts Jimmy and falconer.Thanks
I COMPARED A2-73 TO TROFINETIDE here:
COMPARISON
I posted more details on other posts. Do a comparison, you will see A2-73 is better!
Really, I own Anavex as well. What are the strong points of anavex, so I can recommend Anavex?
Pardon the spell checker.
McMag, EDUCATION is the goal. Let them decide what to advocate for, whether widespread AD, PD, or rare diseases, rett, fragileX etc.
Educate them of our PIPELINE, as well as safety, efficacy and moa. As far as diseases, emphasize the ones we have the most data on.
Thanks and best of luck.
Some items regarding Avatar:
Wow, 33 AD sites recruiting! ALL ABOARD!! No wonder we are doing well in AD trial recruitment! Canada, Netherlands, UK, and of course Australia. Another 23 sites are not recruiting yet.
Here's why nothing materialized after signing the MTA! Guys there are infinite possibilities as to why Biogen/Ana never pursued after signing mta.
I have signed dozens of MTAs with companies. I would guess maybe one in ten goes anywhere. Why does nothing materialize after signing an MTA? Many many reasons, here are a few...
No manpower to study
Some high priority issue came up, no time to investigate
Determined it did not fit into product line
Poor decision to not pursue
Decided to partner with another company
Product not developed enough to make it worth pursuing
Manager that was interested changed his mind
Interested manager left the company
Layoffs, no resources to pursue
And the list goes on and on and on and on.
None reflect on the product being studied.
No PR is ever released as many MTAs are signed every year, going nowhere!!
Avxl seems to track surprisingly well the Russ2K index and FBIOX (biotech fund).
This is an interesting time to follow the AVXL stock price, as it is a period of minimal variables. By that I mean, eoy tax selling/buying is over and there is no dilution now (Per Dr.M), and there is no Ana news. So from Jan1 to today, there is just 'normal' MM movement and other factors (fill in the blank with what you like). For these reasons, the chart below is only from Jan1 to today 1/21.
See below AVXL is the red/orange line. The bottom heavy blue line is Fidelity's bio tech fund (FBIOX), and the top green line is Russell2000.
Note the slopes are generally very similar, and many of the inflection days are the same. I did not expect this at all.
I dont know if Avxl is in FBIOX. Could the Buys/Sells that we have seen recently, be funds doing slight buying/selling? Slight buying/selling affects AVXL sp (>40k blocks seems to!!).
FWIW AVXL outperformed FBIOX, year to date- LOL.
More pharmas than georgejj listed, are following Anavex. Any
pharma, is interested in the competition and their products. Evidence of the interest is rarely seen. These functions are NOT publicized. Larger pharma companies will have a technical department devoted to competitive analysis. These competitive analysis (CA) departments, will study competitors products, and frequently reverse design them. With the help of the patent department, and published trials, CA tries to see what direction the competition is heading. Formal reports are produced for management and the scientists, analyzing technical data and the product, as well as estimating pricing. This is just the formal technical CA that a company does.
Sales and marketing also does their own formal market analysis, comparing and contrasting, competitive products. They also will analyze pricing and distribution, and related costs, as well as all the marketing related parameters.
These are just some examples of formal CA interest that a company will invest in. There is also considerable informal studying that companies do. Some examples of this would be, employees visiting competitors at trade shows or discussions at seminars and "consortiums".
Informal CA can even be accomplished on a message board, where news is quickly brought to light. Some here could be working for Anavex's competition.
By the time a BP company decides to buy little Ana, I hope the other BPs (that have been watching Ana) decide to get in on the act, and there is a bidding war. If only one gets interested, then the final price will be much lower. The farther we are along with approvals, science and trials, the better for the final bid price.
I believe if we do not get bought, there will be a slower rise to max SP, but this independent max SP will be much higher than with a purchase max SP.
Lima, kb, Dr.Hagerman is in the US, where her patients are, when they participated in the adult rett trial(low dose). She was going to contact Ana to see if the adult US trial (or possibly Avatar)had resulted in US fda approval. She may have been referring to avatar (high dose) as maybe she did not know that it had not yet completed. She surely was not referring to EU or UK, or Excellence.
The UK's national safety board is apparently considering allowing Excellence trial (children) sites, in UK, to participate. It appears both Excellence and Avatar(adults high dose) trials may be expanded to UK. These two must complete before children or high dose use, can be approved anywhere. This is good news in that these two trials will reach full enrollment sooner, with increased sites.
Hope that clears it up. Imho
Good news. Sounds like Avatar and Excellence both expanding in large cities in UK. Should speed up enrollment for both, but important for Excellence!
Agree UK has their own safety.
Where does the AVATAR enrollment stand???? Did anyone else wonder why the year end financial results CC gave the AZ trial status as 80% completed, but was silent on the enrollment of the more imminent AVATAR?
Note: The PR announcing the year end CC said "...and provide an update on its clinical programs and corporate highlights".
Seemed odd to me. Especially, as Dr.Kaufmann is our resident Rett expert.
Gernee, thanks for reminding me about that!
Wow man. This girls suffering. Have a heart.
Infitvest, sounds like its helping. Very encouraging. Thanks for posting!
AVXL up 100% in past year. Market agrees with the science. Stay here and watch it continue up for the next year too!
He did not mention Dr.Missling.
No depth or due diligence shown in that piece. Listen to Dr.Hagerman, she knows about Anavex and Dr.Missling.
This PD trial is important! DrM gets $1Million help from MJFF and maybe the bulk of the patients are in Australia where SIUF helps with up to 50%. Good work DrM!!
Lets make this another FAST 14 week trial. Can we include the 132 patients now in OLE???
HOW SOON CAN WE GET THIS PARKINSONS TRIAL UP AND RUNNING??
Investor, agree "undisclosed stat sig P value for the primary endpoint" is a problem. I would add, that they had 7 secondary endpoints for this trial and their new trial "TRAILBLAZER-ALZ 2", actually has 9 secondary endpoints!
I would say they are on a better track than the BIIB drug, fudgeomab(can never remember the name).
Also, interesting how the big boys release very little trial results, and we can never get enough.
Lilly Ph2AD news pops marketcap $17Billion. Correlates very well to the BIIB pop of $18billion a year or two ago with similar PR. This gives insight as to what value the market puts on such news. Ana looks forward to such a pop!!
Quick check shows that the LLY drug has just finished the Ph2 with 266 patients, and has a very similar Ph2 trial(recently started) with a goal of 500 patients. Could this one be converted to a Ph3??? At any rate they are not anticipating the second trial to complete until 2023. Note both their trials administer the drug by IV, as contrasted to Ana delivery of pill or liquid.
As far as comparing the efficacy...it depends where one draws the line. Ana had good responding groups and super responding groups. Need more/better data to compare.
Feels like a boot has been taken off of Avxls neck.
AVATAR becoming P2/3 for approval and revenue. Dr.M wisely making it a pivotal P3 trial, so if FDA will not give approval from US adult rett trial, Avatar will do it SOON! When is avatar fully enrolled?
US has 5x more people with autism than Parkinsons.
I wish we would go after autism, but not sure how it is a rare disease. It is 1 in 59 kids in US, versus rett 1 in 10000.
PowerWalker, yeah, I wonder if the parent knows about OLE or...Ana should tell her doctor what their options are?? I don't know where they are, or patient age, but presume US, or completed AU trial. Maybe they should call Ana...they publish the toll free number.
Rettsyndrome.org Facebook - Presumably a parent posted:
Tdean, good point, not much retail selling for tax loss now! I think more discussion, gets closer to the truth!
I suspect SP decline is a combination of
1) MM working the price down, using small HFTs, to get price down, then will cover the naked shorts they needed to do, because of the recent run up.
2) EOY tax selling
3) some capital raising dilution
All IMHO...certainly no link to direct evidence!
Rettsyndrome.org facebook, has the transcript. Somebody posted it, but stopped before the Q/A session. Rettsyndrome.org said that they would be listening to the call. Looks like there was some interest. Sometimes good press is free!
Nidan, agree, it is always better to have objective measurements captured from trials. That is where hardware like "the consortium" comes in. The subjective impression data collected currently (ex.CGI), are improved by well designed tests, and MORE data and patients.
(Don't know if your exhortation, that "there must be a better way", was rhetorical or not, lol, but this is my comment!)
Better than emailing/calling Dr.Hagerman would be to send the transcript (see Traderpete) to interested parties, thereby spreading the good word!
(Holidays, don't think Dr.Hagerman wants 1000s spam.)
Trader, I agree, it sounded like Dr.Hagerman had waited her whole career to be able to have some hope and good news for Rett parents. She could not hold back her excitement, as she described this breakthrough technology, and was FINALLY able to OPENLY UNVEIL it to the world!
Trader you have been busy today, keep up the good work.
TraderPete, thanks for the transcript! Hopefully caregivers can read it and be encouraged by what is on the way!
Dr.Hagerman should accompany Dr.Missling's team to the FDA meeting!
(It was curious that Drs.Missling and Kaufmann(Ana's Rett expert) did not participate in the call, though I thought I heard Dr.Missling say a few words or was that my imagination?)
At any rate, a third party has now validated our results, with considerable excitement. Dr.Hagerman was impressed at how many people flew in, during covid, to get their girls in the trial. That shows how dedicated the Rett community is, so word will spread quickly. Hopefully to the FDA doorstep!
SteadyT said SEC rules changed, so no FY end results/CC until January.
He said:
Thanks Steady, so no CC till January.
Something Up? I checked the past Fiscal Year End results/CC dates and the announcements of same:
2019 announcement Dec 10,--> results/CC Dec 16
2018 announcement Dec 10,--> results/CC Dec 12
We are now on the 18th and NO announcement at all. Next week is Christmas week.
Looks like company is in QUIET PERIOD.