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Latest SA article on AMRN and Denner 7/4/22. Enjoy!!
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521656-amarin-constantly-living-interesting-times?mailingid=28265946&messageid=must_reads&serial=28265946.1952406&source=email_must_reads&utm_campaign=Must+Read+July+4%2C+2022&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads
OT Here's a music video to celebrate US July 4th, beautifully performed by military musicians of the Armed Forces of Ukraine today .
alm2, It's a good reasonable list. I would like to add 2 mores to it:
5) Start trading AMRN like any "Predator" HF by using all trading tools to reduce the overall cost & to possibly make some real $$$. This option 5) may be a very likely option due to Denner's 6/3/22 13D filing
SO FAR, ALL AMRN longs' speculations about Denner's move and influence are just PLAIN WRONG even there were good analysis and reasons behind them.
1) Denner must have been behind the new BOD members and COB. WRONG Denner has ZERO influence on that.
2) Denner was/is talking with AMRN BOD behind the scene for some vague something. WRONG, BOD COMPLETELY IGNORES HIM in such a way that he has to issue 13D to publicly say "I'll show you by abstaining all my votes". There! and I'll whip you with a special meeting due to UK law.
This is now a very good time to see if Denner is going to really WALK THE WALK by calling the special meeting or he just really TALKS THE WALK and does nothing.
It's quite very sad many longs are already putting all their eggs into ONE (1) Denner's basket.
HDGabor, via many of your post I can really tell you are one of the clearest head, analytical, and non-emotional AMRN traders on this board. I'm admiring you for such capabilities. GLTU!=)
TTE, Thank you for welcoming me to the AMRN long club. I hope this time I will stay in the club a little longer than just several days or week(s). Due to so much AMRN's oscillation/volatile SP movement I have established a quite strict rule to SELL or BUY if SP RISES or SINKS more than 10% intraday. With yesterday SP movement, I anticipate AMRN will see a 10%+ rise in the near future with any "POSITIVE NEWS", especially from Denner. We'll see. OT I would appreciate greatly any professional/expert explanation about the significance or not of a Masking: Triple (Participant, Care Provider, Investigator) Clinical Trial. GLTA longs & AMRN!!
Back in my 5/19 post to cbb I mentioned that I can see SP went down to $1.20 range but not new 52-week low (<$1.11).
ORBAPU, Be careful, per 6/3/2022 13D filing, Denner/Sarrisa will behave like "predatory" fund (trading and hedging any way they can to make $$ from AMRN) and no more taking the punch by just BUYING & HOLD. See my previous reply to dogn's post below
Thonn, Very good question. IF I was Denner with his strong belief that AMRN is so undervalued I would buy another 24M shares at $1.30 range to bring my average way down from $4.6x+. This would also make AMRN BOD quit ignoring me with my 12% O/S.
Look like some tutes are dumping AMRN in early trading, 2.5M shares traded in the first 10 minutes. Don't they like the vote result, AMRN late response, or BOTH?
cbb, hehehe!! I'll take it. Wishing "BAD LUCK" for companies that I short. That's definitely another way to look at things and it will make my trading life much easier.
UNFORTUNATELY, here's how the street sees it from Fidelity news at 4:52AM about the late response from AMRN yesterday regarding AF & MH and the newly published article
cbb, Thanks! Many of my short plays are based on good luck LOL. I think some how I have a special luck and instinct with shorting AMRN. I admit I make so much more $$ shorting AMRN than buying it long. But at this current SP. It's too low and too risky to short even though I think the SP may sink some more. I'm just waiting to see how much lower SP may sink before I'll buy in long. GLTU!=)
Keeping up with my rules for trading AMRN, ALWAYS SELL or BUY to close short position when SP rises or sinks more than 10%. I just closed my entire short position. I'm waiting for AGM 8-K to decide if I should buy long or sell short again tomorrow. GLTA longs+shorts
...........EXACTLY ......and One (1) more time USE THE IGNORE FEATURE of Ihub!!!!
it's very possible that we may get POSITIVE 8-K AGM FILING FOR .....AMRN LONGs tomorrow, because that will mean BAD NEWS FOR AMRN BOD/Management. That may be the reason WHY? for the delay until "BAD NEWS Friday". If the vote result showed 150M Abstention votes, I'm quite sure Denner will call the special meeting next week to kick out the entire current BOD (and CEO?). Here's the simple math:
150M ABSTENTION votes ===> MAX 250M votes FOR & AGAINST
Updated 74% FOR votes of 250M votes = 185M votes===> ALREADY MINORITY = only 46% O/S.
Here's the article AF uses in his tweet.
https://www.statnews.com/2022/06/30/new-analysis-of-amarins-vascepa-resurrects-big-questions-about-effectiveness/
I cannot get the detail without subscription. Who can get it? TIA
OT EVFM SP went up almost 400% in just 4 trading days from 6/23 $.32 close to 6/28 $1.50 HOD. I got out and kept tracking it. I just got back in 2day averaging $1.02. Why? I think it may get another HOT RUN starting today because it just got a Patent news that will extend its only contraceptive drug Phexxi until 2033. You may want to check it out. GLTA longs + shorts!=)
Here's another "BAD NEWS" headline just came in Fidelity
This is another "BAD $$ SPENDING NEWS". NO revenue streams comes in from those regions except little Sweden. BUT BRILLIANT AMRN BOD is ready to dole out 1M?? or more?? FREE RSUs to these two new high executives. I'm thinking to short a lot more in the $1.70 even I already shorted a bundle in the $1.90 and $1.80. I keep thinking about $1.68. That's the price the new COB pay for the 55K shares he bought publicly. WS will want to make sure he'll LOSE his $$$. LOL:=)
Invest83838, You're very welcomed! I understand your no-win difficult position. BUT It seems you already decided to be a helpless victim & just want to stay in that miserable trapping hole called AMRN. Sorry! you MUST BE THE ONE to want to walk out of that miserable and helplessness trapping hole. NO ONE CAN HELP YOU THERE!!
Meowza, It's not short fuse. I just want to clear the air, and hopefully some (not all) people may understands a little about my "character" :=)
There's not much PM activities for AMRN. To me, that's is discouraging. So, I decided to stir up the PM action by doing 4 transactions. See chart
1) The GREEN one is "buying to close" 4 short shares at market $1.84
2) Sell short 1 share at market $1.76 BUT got $1.77 for it
3) Sell short 1 share at market $1.76 BUT got $1.82 for it
4) Sell short 1 share at market $1.77 BUT got $1.78 for it.
This is positive for odd shares traders because there are willing buyers to pay above asking price.
AMRN longs are ROBBED BLATANTLY & PUBLICLY with another seven (7) FORM 4's for 661,459 FREE RSU to BOD members. LE is not going anywhere he just gets himself another 93,750 FREE SHARES. Last year, AMRN BOD took 4M+ RSU shares that costs ARMN about $13M+ REAL MONEY (using the low average $3.25/share for 2021). That was the same cost for restructuring in 2021. https://investor.amarincorp.com/node/21656/html#item_15_exhibits_financial_statement_sch. This is another reason I keep shorting AMRN any chance my instinct & SP analysis tell me so. What do you think today SP will be at close?
Meowza, hehehe! I like that COOL DUDE but...............WHERE'S THE BALL?
Any time to make you feel good Meowza :=)
Meowza, with your consistent not-so-annoying replies I just remove you from my IGNORED LIST :=)
....AND There are so many shares available to short. Fidelity has much more than 5M shares available for shorting with only .%5 annual interest.
Just to stir up the PM volume, I just shorted 1 share at market $1.81. I'm still waiting for buyers with 1 short share at $1.82 and 1 short share at $1.83.
Pharmacydude, your post show you have the intellect to explore and to gain good knowledge which will definitely benefit you in everything you do. I salute you! You are right about "having the balls" LOL because SHORTING STOCK, especially penny stocks (SP < $5.00) is VERY RISKY. Take my case, shorting AMRN at $1.96/share, the max I can gain it's $1.96/share when SP = $0. I can LOSE HUGE amount of $$ if SP goes to $10+ (as many AMRN longs hope in a BO). But fortunately for me, that will never happen with AMRN. Why?
1) My instinct with AMRN stock after more than 2 years watching the stock TELL ME SO
2) Simple law of physics steers WS to not buy the story that AMRN will grow its REVENUE to actually making real profit after it claims it has reduced its size to less than 10% of its size two years ago.
3) NO company SP will rise several hundred percentage points in a hurry depending on 6% O/S owned by an activist tute.
4) Burning CASH like there's no tomorrow.
5) Shrinking REVENUE like there's no tomorrow
.
.
.
n ) BIG BALLS :=)
Kiwi, AND HUUUUGE LUCK Don't forget that:=)
Liz, it's almost a given by WS' standard practice "ONLY BAD NEWS ON FRIDAY". So why do you think 8-K will be submitted publicly on Friday? For many AMRN longs' sake I would like to see 8-K today AH or tomorrow morning. :=)
liamlinden, thank you for your updated info. With 74% FOR & 26% AGAINST yesterday vote I anticipate Denner/Sarrisa will have A LOT OF WORK TO DO before they can call a special meeting which may vote in their favor. FULL DISCLOSURE I'm already holding a quite large number of short shares around $1.96 BUT I'm thinking about shorting more AMRN even in the $1.80. GLTA longs & shorts:=)
Here's my EXTREMELY POSITIVE POST, with the same assumption about liamlinden's and the same math. If there would be 120M ABSTENTION votes, Denner should call special meeting almost immediately to vote out the entire BOD members with his recommended BOD members. Here's the math:
120M ABSTENTION votes ===> 280M votes FOR & AGAINST
70% FOR votes of 280M votes = 196M votes===> ALREADY MINORITY = only 49% O/S.
Sorry to many AMRN longs! IF $1.84 would not hold, I can see SP in the $1.70+ range today provided there's no "GOOD NEWS" from AMRN.
With the assumption that liamlinden's 70% FOR vs 30% AGAINST data is indeed correct. IF there were only 100M ABSTENTION votes, Denner will not be able to do much by calling special meeting to elect new BOARD members. ARMN BOD will have the MAJORITY votes during the special meeting. Here's my simple math:
100M ABSTENTION votes ===> 300M votes FOR & AGAINST
70% FOR votes of 300M votes = 210M votes===> ALREADY MAJORITY> 52% O/S.
This is why It's very CRITICAL to get the ABSTENTION votes > 110M votes
jasbg and sleven I think that's a very good tactical way to publicly show AMRN management, and at the same time to find out how much support Denner will have with no impact whatsoever to the proxy results.
jasbg, AMRN screwed up on the original May 24th proxy stating ABSTENTIONS are equivalent as AGAINST for Proposal 7 https://investor.amarincorp.com/node/21961/html
I just did by selling short AMRN 1 share for $1.91 & 1 share for $1.92 to just stir the PM pot :=)
I would say it's a discouraging sign. One way to interpret this no PM volume is retail traders/gamblers/speculators are waiting for news of AGM. Tutes do not usually trade AMRN PM unless there was something REALLY HOT. Comments anyone?