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IRA dividend income account now 1.41% over cost. Yay !
We'll see how long that lasts....
Nick, are you still holding STWD, ABBV, KNOP, INTC, HD, T ?
Would you add to any of these, not at all, or on a pull back ?
Nick,
Deserving of many atta boys.
And also, there's this sage "businessman" that lives in D.C. in a big house on a main avenue. He's wisely and sagely stated that if he leaves that house the markets would take a dump, your 401K's would evaporate and there would be blood in the streets. And you know how much he knows. So there's also that. Did I mention socialism, which we know is a big concern. Look at McCarthyism and the benefits of that. Then there's Georgia and the Senate. Will there be another lame duck Presidency again ? Will competent cabinet members be approved by the Senate ? These factors will contribute to where we're not only headed as a nation, but where the markets are headed also. After all 50% of the population can't be wrong. Which 50% though ?
Incidentally, today I'm even up on my IRA dividend income account ( in spite of the fact that it's still heavily weighted in energy and REITs ) and about 6% over the March high on my main trading portfolio. Which, put another way is at least 200% over my original investment. So I'm less bullish and a lot less sanguine today than yesterday. Capital preservation is imperative. I'll be looking to sell speculative stocks while still holding core investments and looking for future core investments. That's just me.
Airlines come to mind for the time being as there may be a turnaround ( super spreader turnaround that is- Happy Thanksgiving ! )... LUV, JBLU for instance.
Could be Rabbit, could be. Some principles applied to a certain set of circumstances may not apply when those circumstances quickly change. I'll continue selling into these rallies.
I believe theres growing concern that monetary policy will only take the markets only so far.
After all most of us are well aware that " No One Expects the Spanish Inquisition ". Just sayin'
I'd rather get less money (profit) out than none.
Remembering that cash is still king. Watch the vix.
Just a word of caution. Favorable policies have led to frothy markets and bubbles.
A combination of negative events, the internet bubble followed by 911 sure did show us a thing or two also.
Real estate crashes havent done much either for the overall health of the markets. Nor has inflation. Or bank failures. Or stricter monetary policy which isnt concerning right now.
I'm not ringing alarms, I'm just saying the higher the markets the longer down a cascade failure can be.
Question is when that bough breaks and the baby will fall then when will down markets come bathwater and all.
After all. Nothing is coming up roses right now. Still. Put a few thorns on it and pop goes the markets.
And to my main point N.E.T.S.I.- " Nobody Expects the Spanish Inquisition ".
Anyway my case for caution is much stronger than some looney " lawyers" case in Pennsylvania and Georgia. So maybe I do have a point or two in here somewhere.
So there's that, if nothing else.
Court check your history books. There have been bear markets lasting years.
Closed GP at 30 from a cost of 22, purchased on 8/28/20
Closed ETSY in one account at 142 at cost
Still have more in another at 137 cost.
Reducing liability a bit.
As long as we get ours, dont die from it and can go to Amsterdam and Norway ( thanks Holland America for the fantastically cheap fjord cruise we bought months ago ) in May Cutting it close, but couldn't pass on the offer. Airfare included. We can cancel up to 1 month before unless they have to cancel.
Crossed fingers.
My brother did that for years till housing slowed a few years back. Unfortunately he's not with us any more.
AMD has a 5 nan proc also, thanks to TSM. It too is cleaning INTCs clock.
Closed HD in IRA at cost 270.50
Closed CMG at cost 1300.50
Closed SOLO at 10.80 on a stop at cost.
These 11 EV Startups Are Chasing Tesla. They Can't All Win. A field of electric-vehicle challengers is in hot pursuit of Elon Musk, fueled by funding from Wall Street. It will take skill, guts and good fortune to avoid a crash.
10:11 am ET November 20, 2020 (Dow Jones) Editor's Picks Print
By Ben Foldy
The race is on to become the next Tesla Inc . Tens of billions are riding on the outcome.
Investors from Wall Street to the Motor City are betting that a field of electric-car startups can emulate the rise of Elon Musk , who sits at the wheel of a company that is on track to sell 500,000 battery-powered vehicles this year and turn its first-ever annual profit. His Tesla—scheduled to join the S&P 500 next month—is now more valuable than Toyota Motor Corp ., Volkswagen AG , General Motors Co . and Ford Motor Co . combined.
It won't be a smooth journey either for investors—which include the world's largest money manager and the world's second-largest private- equity firm—or these industry upstarts, which face numerous obstacles. Most haven't yet successfully built or sold a car. Those that have have struggled to do so profitably. Some are still hiring a workforce or fighting accusations of fraud. One recently posted a loss of $1.6 billion.
Their fate hinges on a number of unanswered questions. Are consumers ready to buy a pricey electric vehicle other than a Tesla? Or is it a safer bet to sell workaday vans and trucks to companies? Is it smarter to build your own cars in your own factory? Or should you rely on outside contractors to produce them? Does it make more sense to focus on China, home to the world's largest electric-car market, or stay closer to home? How much pressure will they face from old giants like GM, which said this week it would spend $27 billion through 2025 on the development of electric and driverless vehicles ?
At stake is the future of transportation—and who gets to define it. There will be winners. And losers. There will be fortunes won. And lost. Here is our guide to the road ahead.
Rivian Automotive LLC , Irvine, Calif.
CEO: R.J. Scaringe
YEAR FOUNDED: 2009
OWNERSHIP: private
CAPITAL RAISED: $5.35 billion in five funding rounds in the past two years
VALUATION: unknown
NOTABLE BACKERS: Ford , Amazon.com Inc ., BlackRock Inc .
FIRST MODEL: Well-equipped versions of the R1T, an all-electric pickup, will start around $67,500, before tax incentives. Goes on sale in June 2021.
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: Rivian will sell battery-powered pickup and SUVs, targeting buyers with an outdoorsy, off-roading brand . The company also has a contract to build 100,000 electric delivery vans for investor Amazon . Rivian is retooling a former Mitsubishi Motors Corp . factory in Illinois.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: Rivian has to build both quality cars and its sales and service network. It plans to emulate Tesla's model and sell directly to consumers, an approach complicated by state franchise laws that protect the traditional dealership model. Then Rivian has to break into some of the toughest markets. Tesla has a commanding share of electric vehicle sales, while the Detroit auto makers dominate in pickup trucks and off-road brands.
Lucid Motors Inc ., Newark, Calif.
CEO: Peter Rawlinson
YEAR FOUNDED: 2007
OWNERSHIP: Private
CAPITAL RAISED: more than $1 billion
VALUATION: Unknown
NOTABLE BACKERS: Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia
FIRST MODEL: The Lucid Air is a battery-powered luxury sedan the company says will be able to drive more than 500 miles on a single charge in some configurations. The first Airs will cost $169,000 before tax incentives when it goes on sale early next year, with less-costly versions to follow—including an entry-level model expected to start at $77,400.
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: Lucid is building a factory in Arizona and aiming at the high-end luxury market. Executives hope to take on not only Tesla but Mercedes-Benz and BMW with fully-electric models. The company touts its proprietary battery and motor technology, which it says enables sports car-like performance, the ability to drive further without charging and roomier cabins in a smaller car.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: Challenges raising money led Lucid to delay the Air multiple times since introducing the concept in 2016. Now, other high-end auto makers like BMW , Mercedes-Benz and Porsche are rolling out their own luxury electric cars. Ultraluxury brand Bentley recently said it would sell only plug-in models by 2026, and others are poised to follow.
Lordstown Motors Corp ., Lordstown, Ohio
CEO: Steve Burns
YEAR FOUNDED: 2019
OWNERSHIP: public
MARKET VALUATION: $4.2 billion (as of November 19)
NOTABLE BACKERS: Workhorse Group Inc ., Fidelity Investments , GM
FIRST MODEL: The Endurance is a battery-electric pickup truck marketed to commercial fleet operators with a starting price of $52,500 before federal tax incentives.
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: Lordstown Motors took over a former GM assembly plant in Ohio planning to build battery-powered pickup trucks for commercial fleets and hoping to start production in September 2021. The company says electric vehicles operate with lower fuel and maintenance costs—especially when compared with gas-guzzling pickup trucks—making them appealing for businesses that use them in fleets.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: Lordstown Motors says it has to hire more than 1,000 workers and retool a massive plant before entering an increasingly crowded electric truck market. Ford 's F-150 truck is the bestselling vehicle in the U.S., and the company is rolling out an electric version also targeting fleet buyers in 2022.
Nikola Corp ., Phoenix
CEO: Mark Russell
YEAR FOUNDED: 2015
OWNERSHIP: public
MARKET VALUATION: $10.1 billion (as of November 19)
NOTABLE BACKERS: German auto supplier Robert Bosch GmbH , heavy machinery giant CNH Industrial NV , hedge-fund investor Jeffrey Ubben
FIRST MODEL: The battery-powered Nikola Tre semi-truck, built with CNH Industrial 's IVECO brand, is set to begin production in late 2021. No pricing information is available yet.
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: Nikola is targeting the commercial trucking market. It intends to make big rigs powered by electric batteries and hydrogen fuel cells, along with refueling stations and producing hydrogen fuel. Its business model emphasizes partnerships with other big, established companies to deliver on core parts of its strategy.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: Nikola has said its refueling network alone could cost it billions of dollars to complete, and its profit potential depends on the company being able to hit ambitious cost projections for making hydrogen. It is also reeling from a report by short seller Hindenburg Research that claimed it misled investors about its technology. Nikola called the report's accusations false and misleading. Company founder Trevor Milton departed soon after and Nikola's stock has cratered. The Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission have initiated inquiries.
Fisker Inc ., Los Angeles
CEO: Henrik Fisker
YEAR FOUNDED: 2016
OWNERSHIP: public
MARKET VALUATION: $4.7 billion (as of November 19)
NOTABLE BACKERS: Apollo Global Management Inc ., Magna International Inc ., Louis Bacon
FIRST MODEL: The Ocean, a compact SUV made with sustainable materials, is slated to begin production in 2022. Pricing starts at $37,500 before federal tax incentives.
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: Much of Fisker's manufacturing and engineering will be contracted to outside vendors. Auto-parts supplier Magna , which holds a 6% stake in the startup, will build the company's first model while Fisker focuses on the design and software. Fisker is also developing a flexible lease model that functions more like a monthly subscription. Customers will have the ability to terminate at any point and the company can re-lease the car, creating recurring revenue.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: This isn't Henrik Fisker's first attempt to get an electric-car startup off the ground . In 2007 he founded Fisker Automotive , an early rival to Tesla that ultimately went bankrupt. And his latest venture isn't without stumbles. The company promised a battery-technology breakthrough before ditching the effort, saying it couldn't be commercialized. Analysts say Fisker's contract-manufacturing approach is risky and other car companies have struggled with monthly-subscription plans for vehicles.
Canoo Inc., Torrance, Calif.
CEO: Ulrich Kranz
YEAR FOUNDED: 2018
OWNERSHIP: private but expected to go public through a reverse merger known as a SPAC by the end of the year
VALUATION: $2.4 billion (valuation estimate at the time reverse merger was announced)
NOTABLE BACKERS: Daniel Hennessy , BlackRock , AFV Partners
FIRST MODEL: A microbus-like all-electric "lifestyle" vehicle the company describes as a "loft on wheels" will be called the Canoo. Pricing for the model, set to hit the road in 2022, hasn't been announced.
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: Canoo's technology integrates the batteries, chassis, motors and steering components. From that foundation, the company plans to make distinctive "lifestyle" vehicles for consumers available through a monthly subscription starting in 2022, and delivery vehicles starting the following year. The company has also joined with Hyundai Motor Co . to co-develop technology and expects to outsource the manufacturing of its cars.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: Before finding its merger partner, Canoo spent more than $300 million since inception and last year its auditor warned it was at risk as a going concern. Its first model's success depends on buyers embracing its subscription service, which is still novel in the car business. Additionally, Canoo has yet to lock-in a deal with a contract manufacturer to build its first vehicles.
NIO, Inc ., Shanghai
CEO: William Li
YEAR FOUNDED: 2014
OWNERSHIP: Public
MARKET VALUATION: $66 billion (as of November 19)
NOTABLE BACKERS: Chinese mobile gaming behemoth Tencent Holdings Ltd ., Scottish hedge fund (and major Tesla investor) Baillie Gifford & Co ., Chinese state investors
MAIN MODEL: The ES6 is a five-seat SUV with a starting price of roughly 358,000 yuan ($52,000).
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: NIO's stock gains outpaced Tesla's share-price surge this year, and the company's market value has eclipsed GM as of Thursday's close. Sales of its luxury electric SUVs, made and sold in China, are growing . It has also started providing subscription plans for batteries which allow users to buy cars without batteries at a lower price and swap them out for a monthly fee based on their energy needs.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: Despite a strong 2020, NIO's future seemed in doubt last year. It posted a net loss of $1.6 billion in 2019 and laid off roughly a fifth of its employees. It got a 7 billion yuan (roughly $1 billion) lifeline from Chinese state investors this spring, but it will need to boost sales and margins to remain competitive with Tesla, which opened its Chinese factory last year.
Li Auto, Inc ., Beijing
CEO: Li Xiang
YEAR FOUNDED: 2015
OWNERSHIP: public
MARKET VALUATION: $30.7 billion (as of November 19)
NOTABLE BACKERS: Chinese e-commerce heavyweight Meituan Dianping , TikTok creator ByteDance Ltd ., BlackRock
MAIN MODEL: The Li ONE is a plug-in hybrid luxury SUV that uses a small gasoline engine to generate power for lithium-ion batteries and lists for around 328,000 yuan ($49,500).
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: Li Auto can appeal to drivers in parts of China where charging stations are less plentiful while still qualifying for some state subsidies. Li's hybrids require smaller and cheaper battery packs, saving the company on costs.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: Li's focus on hybrids may help it alleviate drivers' worries about charging in the short-term, but analysts say the company will need to successfully manage an eventual transition to an all-electric future over the longer term. Hybrids also don't get the same favored treatment that pure battery-electric vehicles do from some local governments.
XPeng, Inc ., Guangzhou, China
CEO: He Xiaopeng
YEAR FOUNDED: 2015
OWNERSHIP: public
MARKET VALUATION: $35.3 billion (as of November 19)
MAJOR BACKERS: Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ., Chinese phone company Xiaomi Corp ., Qatar Investment Authority
MAIN MODEL: The P7 is a battery-electric sedan that starts at 250,000 yuan ($37,000).
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: Xpeng makes SUVs and sedans that undercut Tesla's Chinese models on price. The company is also developing its own autonomous-driving software and has an in-car operating system with its own network of apps. Like its Chinese competitors, the company has a deep-pocketed tech backer in Jack Ma 's Alibaba.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: The Chinese government has helped stimulate electric-car demand with subsidies that are expected to be fully phased out by 2022. XPeng's software focus is both capital-intensive and highly competitive, and the company has warned in filings its efforts could be hindered by further deterioration of the U.S.-China relationship.
Faraday & Future, Inc., Los Angeles
CEO: Carsten Breitfeld
YEAR FOUNDED: 2014
OWNERSHIP: private
VALUATION: unknown
MAJOR BACKERS: Birch Lake Holdings LP, ATW Partners
FIRST MODEL: The FF91 is a luxury SUV with over 1,000 horsepower and more than 300 miles of range. The company says it can deliver the SUV nine months after raising more funds. Pricing is expected to start at more than $100,000.
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: Faraday has tried for years to develop a luxury SUV that will compete directly with Tesla. The company recently secured a bridge loan of $45 million as the company looks to raise more funding to make the FF91. Mr. Breitfeld is known in the auto industry for his development of BMW 's i8 hybrid sports car.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: Faraday Future has spent more than $2 billion and has yet to sell a single vehicle, after originally targeting 2017 to bring its first model to market. Founder Jia Yueting declared personal bankruptcy last year from personal debts in China and the company is still looking to raise the funds needed to start production.
Arrival Ltd ., London
CEO: Denis Sverdlov
YEAR FOUNDED: 2015
OWNERSHIP: private but expected to go public through a reverse merger known as a SPAC by end of the year
VALUATION: $5.4 billion (valuation estimate at the time reverse merger was announced)
MAJOR BACKERS: Hyundai Motor Co ., Kia Motors Corp ., BlackRock , United Parcel Service Inc .
MAIN MODEL: an electric passenger bus expected in the fourth quarter of 2021
WHAT EXCITES INVESTORS: Arrival plans to build electric buses for urban transit or delivery vans at smaller, automation-intensive assembly plants the company calls microfactories. The factories, it says, can be built for tens of millions of dollars, far less than a conventional assembly plant. The company has an order from UPS for 10,000 vans.
WHAT COULD GIVE INVESTORS PAUSE: Many of its prospective customers—cities and transit authorities— are in fiscal trouble due to the pandemic and dropping urban transportation ridership. Arrival also faces a strong set of existing competitors due to widespread acceptance of electric buses in certain parts of the world. Most new buses sold in China are already electric, analysts say.
Write to Ben Foldy at Ben.Foldy@wsj.com
His assertions are partially correct but unsupported postulating yields no favorable result.
Unfortunately, accepting assertions that do stand up to scrutiny also don't yield a favorable result. It's like telling a train rolling on track at 70 MPH to stop on a dime. The juggernaut economy with all of its flaws will unfortunately roll up ad down those hills and valleys and you nor I will not stop that, regardless of our individual insights.
In other words- it is what it is.
So SF,
PFE continues to rise as I sit on the sidelines...After closing SOLO at 5.41 from a cost of 4.41, I relented and reopened at 10.80. Expending the same amount of cash for 1/2 the number of shares.
I really don't enjoy chasing stocks, but since COST will be paying a special dividend of $10 to December 2nd owners of record and it's off it's recent high I figured I'd go fishing for a few shares in my secondary account. Opened COST at 282.95 in IRA account. I figure I'll buy more with the proceeds once the dividend drops the share price. In trading account this flagship stock cost basis is 349.03.
Famous last words from Alfred E. Neuman- " What me worry ? "
So PFE continues to rise as I sit on the sidelines...After closing SOLO at 5.41 from a cost of 4.41, I relented and reopened at 10.80. Expending the same amount of cash for 1/2 the number of shares.
Me too SF. I'm thinking 34 is good but I'd start accumulating at 35.50. 36 is too rich for me. Famous last words as the share price rises.
And speaking of value... I decided to close PFE at cost- $36. Since I am not love with it right now I'll look for a better entry point.
Im certainly not anywhere as in love with ABBV. But less so for ABBV now since it's not moving up as much as I like.
Still wouldn't fly in one if I have my choice.
The original flying wing was exceptionally difficult to fly. The spruce goose barely got off the ground.
The reiteration (of the original flying wing which never had any military or commercial applications) is the B2 bomber. Basically a new and improved flying wing decades later with all of the requisite sophisticated systems to keep it flying.
Agreed.
Reduced position in PFE at cost. Sucky price action. Will close if no joy.
Speaking of viable- retook a small position in PFE after recent close at 40.
The new "spruce goose" and flying wing aircraft combined.
Neither viable.
Added to HD at 269.
Speaking of value, reopened AMZN 3143, 22 lower than last reopen and 72 lower than last close.
Added to HD $270
Added to HD at 272
Doing a lot better than making $7.65 / hour, since all other costs have gone up as you've illustrated with your example.
Nothing bad with that since the Gov't is in hock.
Since I'm not into paying for gov't programs designed to be a safety net for folks getting underpaid by the likes of for example WMT in times past. Id rather see my taxes go down than go up. My choice is to buy the best for less. That's a choice I have.
I don't have a choice whether I pay taxes.
Thanks Court, I believe we both get a few atta boys for that.
My trading account looks like this:
AMZN closed a this morning with about $50 per share above cost.
EQH ^ 33%
FSR ^ 39%
ETSY down 7.82%
TDOC down 15.17%, but received LVGO shares in cash on merger so about even.
PLTR ^ 56.43%
FB ^ 133.7%
WMT ^ 129.69%
COST ^ 10.45%
SLQT down 14.91%
MA ^ 13.29%
NRZ down 38.78%
NFBK ^ 297.09%
T ^ 1.81%
The percentages shown here aren't really reflective of actual percent results.
For example, I bought MA originally at a cost adjusted basis of $15 per share, NFBK at a cost adjusted basis of $1 per share, FB at a cost adjusted basis of $40 per share. But through the years I've bought then sold then bought lower each time adding more cash to my purse. Thats skewed perceived percent returns.
So there's that.
Haven't really touched WMT much except to trim as it doubled in price from a cost basis of $63.70.
My largest number of stocks held in any account is T with a goal to add at 26, and 26.50.
Second largest holdings are MA, COST, NFBK, NRZ, FB, WMT in that order...
After borrowing at zero percent off a credit card 18 months ago to pay off my mortgage, that payment is due in December so I will be reducing liquidity in this account end of December, so there'll be less trading.
I didn't mention my other accounts that are all more than flush, nor did I mention my wife's or sons that I control.
My 457/IRA/Roth/Rollover accounts with the NYC Deferred Comp plan typically pays 2% in the cash accounts.
I've been seriously redirecting more $$$ toward S&P fund since March and more recently when the markets melted down.
Those funds have gone up a minimum 32% this year, which ain't bad.
My insurance annuity has since gone up as well having redirected the bulk of $$$ towards a more aggressive fund since March nd April. That's up at least 20% this year.
Same too with my sons 529 college savings plan. He'll be going to grad school and will need that money.
Other funds that I don't control such as my Union Annuity ( "A" fund ) or deferred comp plan ( "B" fund ). Have not gone up too much. These are employer sponsored and 100% payed for by The City of NY per contract with my Union and were funded during the time during my employment.
Since I receive social security, 2 pensions, one from NYC the other from I.B.E.W. I haven't had to touch any of my retirement accounts since I've been retired for 11 years.
So, yeah, I'm doing kinda ok. Since I'm worth millions.
Good idea SF. Us too. I'd like to see the day when we can walk unmasked and unfettered to not be concerned about the loonies infecting us or others.
Nick, I'm up around 4% over the March high in the trading account.
Just about even in the IRA account.
Since this account is still heavy with reits and energy stocks it's a miracle I've been able to get it back to zero. A way to go, it's a tougher road. Considering liquidity issues. But, I've made some hard choices, put the $$ where the $$ are made and turned this slow moving ship around.
KN 95s will help you stay alive as the rest die around you. Stay safe.
Good points SF
I remember driving the first generation volt when traveling through Virginia we stopped by a Chevy dealer and a Nissan dealer and drove a leaf also. What difference. Loved the Volt. Couldn't even test drive either in NY. If you wanted to order in NY area it'd have to be from a brocure.
Then the battery fires. That quenched the thirst for a volt.
The market is raising all boats.