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Hey proto are you an admin here?
POETF
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/poet-technologies-completes-optical-interposer-140010333.html
Announced today
*Technology fully developed and validated today for
Tier 1 client
*Expanded product portfolio being negotiated
*New suitor jumped into DenseLight sale, buyout possible
More NRE deals coming, one bidding war under way, technology de-risked today. Oh, and check out the technicals now!
AND THE MARKET COMPLETELY MISSED IT !
Enjoy!
It amazes me that I could have stayed on the sidelines for all of these years, kept up to date with news, and waited until all of this de-risking news came out today and still buy shares for 30 cents.
I hope the talent brought on indicates no interest in selling, but fully developing for as many applications as possible.
Your numbers are on target strik, what I am hoping for is news that creates volume and volatility, that’s when the real trading opportunities arrive.
But for now, this is the real deal and it will be very exciting in the weeks and months to come.
Quick read on today’s news
My key takeaways
1. OI completed deliverable, follow on discussions, products to be designed qualified and incorporated into customer’s product portfolio.
++++ The big win and de-risking of the company
+++ Further products for same client— my guess more advanced 400g and maybe 100g —Expect more NRE soon
? Were these “products to be designed qualified and incorporated” in some sort of pre design phase to expedite to market?
2. A new suitor for DL
++++ This could be huge and kudos to POET for saying, “Not so fast Chinese buyer, you slow played this and now it may bite you in the a§§”
Is the buyer interested in just DL? Why would they be?
A: Supply agreement They may want to jump ahead in queue,
Or, do they want everything, POET and DL, just Singapore DL, SingDL and POET?
There are many possibilities; since it is a 3 way negotiation, and percentages of ownership are changing with each payment, it’s a moving target. As of now Poet still owns 70%. That will reduce to 51% with the next payment, and to 19% after the following payment... I expect we will know more before that tipping point where ownership goes to 81% ChinaDL.
3. Payments
—- They already acknowledge late payments, now broken into two pieces per POET request and this now becomes secondary concern at most, due to #2 above. But it also says POeT expects immediate payment when business resumes. That tells me the Chinese are on the clock and stand to lose the deal if they are unnecessarily delinquent. Nice to have the other suitor as leverage.
4. New hires
+++ Two more industry high level execs, indicative of a pretty massive expectation of contacts, contracts and relationships.
5. Not mentioned in the NR, but, Bill Ring
Not a surprise, would not be surprised to see him doing some consulting/contract work for them. He and the BB Photonics crew may have invented the wheel, but Suresh and company are applying it to the axles, grinding wheels and turbines of photonics.
I’m still around and remain positive. I just think until the company speaks, there really is nothing new to say. And since none of the speculation has ever been on target, including mine, I’m content to wait it out.
Company is going to have to talk sooner or later, and if you think about it, the latest news(November), the guy from Macom coming on board, and Suresh moving up to CEO and CoB, all seems to be indicative of moving ahead.
I’m with you strik, I want to see the $13 mil and the OI status, the now.
Funny, I said the same thing about jobs they are posting, but then I saw this one today and posted it myself. Last and third last paragraphs are interesting, reference to major global players and system on a chip (probably OI)
New job
posted on Jan 08, 2020 03:47PM
Use the IP Check tool [?]
https://www.indeed.com.sg/viewjob?jk=38cc34a7f0f232e9&q=Denselight&tk=1du1po916nhmu800&from=ja&alid=5d5a0dfa795f0008d4e82e44&utm_campaign=job_alerts&utm_medium=email&utm_source=jobseeker_emails&rgtk=1du1po916nhmu800
My bold below
Roles & Responsibilities
Design and develop both optoelectronics devices and integrated photonics sub-system platforms. Devices includes but not limited to FP lasers, DFB lasers (CW and DML), gain chips, SLEDs and semiconductor optical amplifier. Photonics integrated platforms includes but not limited to photonics integrated circuits, Silicon-based integrated platforms, standard/custom packaged modules, as well as optoelectronics sub-systems (i.e. includes both optical and electronics sub-modules) to meet design goals and requirements.
Perform simulation of optoelectronic devices (CrossLight, ALDS, Optiwave), optical ray tracing (Zemax, Optalix), thermal (Solidworks) and electrical (5Spice) properties of optoelectronics devices
Analysis of optoelectronics device epi growth, participate in wafer fabrication process integration, mask design integration, device functionality and reliability performance characterization and test results.
With reference to state-of-art competitors, simulated performance and data-mining internal test-results data-base, you will refine the design, fabrication specifications, and simulation model and parameters to optimize fit between design and measured outcomes.
Report generation of design and simulation outcome with support of experimental data, where available
Build up database of optoelectronics device design white papers, and management of all design documentation repository
Responsible for the development and optimisation of Denselight’s ILM (Integrated Laser Module) sub-systems. This includes the development of both the ILM’s optical (i.e. linewidth optimisation, stability, wavelength and power tuning, etc.) and electronics (i.e. user interface, digital control, etc.) performance.
———-
Responsible for leading/co-leading programs with a number of major global players in the development of photonic integration solutions to support the Silicon Photonics platform for datacom and sensing applications.
— —- -
Development will be beyond simplex monolithic integration with regrowth for spot size converters and array devices, towards multiple functionality PICs incorporating active devices of lasers, modulators and detectors with passive devices of waveguides, polarizers, MMI splitters and optical filters.
—- - —
Development of multiple functionality PICs designed to be compatible to Silicon Photonics to form a larger scale integrated System-on-a-Chip component.
— - ——
It’s reasonable to expect a status update for the payment and the OI, simply because on or before the end of year was expressly stated by the buyer as the timing for their second payment. Any further delays are not acceptable in my opinion, simply because they have been through the drill with the first payment and should be well informed as to what was necessary to get it done within their stated timeline.
IMO, they are now in possession of the asset that they agreed to buy and they have failed to live up to their end of the deal, and/or POET has failed to provide notice of a material event, the receipt or non receipt of a substantial payment.
The obligation to update on the OI is less defined, the only acceptable scenario for a lack of news is if there is a in completion of the final component that they expect to resolve in a matter of days, not weeks or months...
I didn’t expect anything to come before, but I am expecting it now that the holidays are in the rear view. If the 2nd tranche is on time, we should know by Tuesday at the latest.
If all of the components are successfully completed as anticipated, I think we should be notified, but more importantly, I believe it warrants a public presentation that demonstrates the significance of the platform. While we know they are developing it specifically for a transceiver application/client, there is no reason it should not be demonstrated for its unique properties as it applies across the platform.
And if it is not done, the update is needed as it represents a material change in what they have previously stated.
Hey proto, I’m far from a tech expert, dots have considerably less photoluminescent loss than wells, but may not have the properties that make it better for their applications.
Thinking of completion of the 8th and final piece of the Optical Interposer. Lots of speculation about whether that will be a defining event. I’m thinking the first wafer with 400+ wafer scale Optical Interposers will be the real defining event. That must come before validation, if I’m not mistaken that will be the basis upon which testing and validation will take place.
Events in the first half of year must be used to promote the OI platform. I think we are all past exhaustion waiting for POET to “arrive”. 2020 must be when multiple developmental deals get done and real revenues begin to flow.
Per Suresh, “More specifically, we had initially divided our funded development program into eight distinct platform building block deliverables. We have successfully delivered seven of these deliverables and are focused on completing the final validation deliverable this year.”
Considering they were juggling 8 balls at once up to now, this final “validation deliverable” sounds like it is a matter of test hours, versus design or proof of concept. That is significant.
This was said as well in their November conference call “No other company yet is at a comparable level of wafer-scale integration in photonics, especially when taken into account the integration of all the required passive components.”
We all know that the rug has been pulled out at the last minute in the past. The market certainly knows it as well.
This time around, we have a top executive from Macom coming on to be CEO at this very late stage.
Based on our prior , I have been very guarded about prospects, but it does not mean that Im not very about the potential. 6 weeks from now, $13 million more in the coffers and the last piece of component validation done, we should see the market’s attitude change.
I think we are stuck at or below 30, (40 CA), until this tranche closes, which will probably wrap up September 6. If we are to get news before the AGM, it should be the week of the 9th.
Otherwise, might not be much until after deal closes Oct 31.
Thanks proto, too bad it doesn’t get too much traffic as a blog.
I think if the word got out there, we would see a different market reaction, not big, but something positive.
The deal establishes validation of the technology and cash in hand while dumping a cash burn. I think we will see it creep up from here, but they need to put some meat on the bones for shareholders.
We should see orders in the last quarter, and more development deals. What would really be nice would be a supply deal stateside.
The oops was because I forgot to paste the link in the message prior to that.
And there is this, courtesy of Rainer Klute on Agoracom and apparently, IBK, an investment fund in Toronto.
https://agoracom.com/ir/POETTechnologies/forums/discussion/topics/730000-optimistic/messages/2239362#message
It is important to note that the sale of DenseLight represents an injection of US$28 million into POET and a significant reduction of POET’s operating costs which will transform POET’s balance sheet and enable the company to pursue a fab-light strategy. As part of the fab-light strategy, POET will focus on growing the Optical Interposer business in fast-growth, multi-billion dollar markets driven by internet traffic, datacenter development, 5G networks and the integration of photonics and network switching devices.
POET is at an inflection point for rapid growth. POET has a 2019 revenue guidance of US $8-10 million and IBK Capital Corp. expects POET’s annual revenue from its Optical Interposer-based Optical Engines for various applications to exceed US $200 million (C$267 million) for 2023—which is more than 20x 2019 revenue.
This revenue growth is also supported by the cumulative Total Available Market (TAM) POET is pursuing for integrated photonics, which is estimated at US $19 billion for 2019-2023. System integrators such as CISCO and Broadcom, and data center providers such as Microsoft, Facebook, Google and Amazon represent about 70% of this total market. POET’s revenue growth and industry-wide market growth should provide POET with significant share price appreciation.
Here’s a link to a blog I posted about the agreement.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/poet-technologies-signs-deal-sale-210000284.html
Overall
On a scale of “bad to good to better to best” I rate this deal as good to better. Now I want more development deals, production and similar agreements in other than China.
The bigger the secret, the bigger the cover. I suspect that POET will show very little to us until after October 31st. Until then, the Chinese have a nice leg up in utilizing POET technology.
Question : Would it have been beneficial for POET to remain a nominal minority owner in DL to facilitate ongoing operations in light of trade uncertainties?
Opinion only: More “sparklers” than “fireworks”, but it is definitely a win. More delayed gratification for an exhausted shareholder base with its eyes on the big prize, but enough to move the needle upward, whether it is enough to
break through any of the barriers of resistance, no clue here.
Proto, I agree with those concerns. I’ve seen this playbook too many times where a monolith drags a small tech into a prolonged negotiation just to bleed them out, or in the case of the Chinese, to reverse engineer.
My greatest concern is about the lack of any additional design deals since last November. Have these been put on standstill while DL deal plays out? I hope not.
I still think the weight of concerns is mitigated by the insiders loading up on both options and debentures. While greed begets dilution, at least its an indicator that they believe something good is coming.
Looking forward to news this week, getting down to the wire for notification prior to the Annual Meeting.
Thanks for the info on Spectra, proto. Will be following.
In the meantime, we keep plugging away here in anticipation of news, I will say early next week, which probably means it won’t happen based on my prognostications.
Thanks for that heads up proto, are there any projections for revenues for Spectra?
I’m holding tight here until we get a name and buyer, or not.
Should be next week.
I hear you strik. We are 3 weeks from knowing the buyer if the transaction is to be completed, will see the market reaction to that whether I want to sell, hold, trade etc. A little bit of all of these I suspect. I do think it brings the 50 cents into play at that point.
Hey strik, congrats on not being one of these idiots who needs a new car every 2 years to feel relevant. Whether flat broke or flush with cash, the only car I ever dumped before driving it into the ground was a lemon.
Here’s the deal; this tranche after tranche bs is freezing the share price below 40 cents CA. Even now, as the SP approaches that number, people are selling off and taking debentures instead.
Sometime soon, (likely within the next 6 weeks), we get the news on the acquisition; if its a go, so are we, as we get who is buying and the enough details of the supply agreement to satisfy proxy voters. The tech is thus validated.
If buyer backs out, hold the phone, it’s all up in the air. The financing will have to carry them for at least another 6 months.
If POET backs out, more likely good than bad IMO, better deal available or better to hold on to DL because it increases margins or much greater value down the line. We will know soon.
Hey proto,
We have discussed possibility of interaction between LWLG in the past, a report now 20 months old referred to a ‘substance’ being used in POET products, but never a mention by either company.
It’s a reach by that poster, he is in full on promotion mode.
If it was a fact and LWLG product was in use, it would be material news. No such news released.
We know Ring and Lebby have history and relationship. But that is all we know.
Strik, am with you on the waiting, as for the forecasting, there is no clear path to an accurate assessment. If 400G prototypes are delivered in the 2nd half of this year, then I expect NRE revs to ramp substantially.
To me the most important piece now is completion of DL sale, that cash infusion will assure development, ramp of product through 2021. Stock will respond positively to that.
Well, it’s the 29th, we should be getting end of year results for 2018 today or tomorrow. May be after hours tonight or first thing tomorrow.
Those results will include mention of the $3 million in development funds per November, so that is positive. I don’t see either end of year or 1q 19 results as any events of note, other than what we already know.
The real news should come when they announce the annual meeting.
Yep, now its time to just let it play out.
Yes, because everyone knows saying you bought it all at the lows and sold it all at the highs would be pure BS. So selling the rest for "only" an 87.75% profit makes it completely credible.
You bought at the very highest highs and sold at the very lowest lows. Impressive. If I had done that I would have run away laughing and never looked back.
I don't blame you waiting to jump in, conventional wisdom says there will be time to get a nice return after qualification within a client device is validated.
The potential price of the financing is steep, but I question how much of it will have to be used.
Here's what matters; for the first time there is real insider investment, about a million dollars worth, via the debentures. Sure its a generous deal, but as an insider you sure as hell don't do it unless you know it will pay off in big way. That is every bit as important as getting this funding that easily takes us through the DL divestiture. I can now sit on my shares and wait for the news to come.
The financing more than covers needs, but better to have that access/leverage than not.
Nice workaround of blackout period for insiders, normally would have to wait until after 1q19 results were announced to buy shares, not to mention the next swath of options that will be approved this summer.
So that is out of the way, market should respond positively, but will the .40/.50 (Can) convertibles hold down the share price movement? Does this open us up to more manipulation, keeping share price below the 55 cent warrant strike? Too much for me to guess.
Important points are, another roadblock removed, we are further de-risked, and insider participation indicates a very positive outlook.
Crickets is all we got from POET at PIC.
So, either the technology is so good and they have so many private discussions going on that they don't want to talk publicly,
or,
the technology has hit a snag or is being usurped by a different technology and they are not getting interest or they need to finetune.
I consider myself a healthy skeptic, which peeves the thought leaders of other chat boards. The GaAs failure remains fresh and an albatross. It remains a house of cards on a windy day.
Still, it is undeniable that the Optical Interposer has breakthrough potential, no where near as complex as the GaAs tech. It's known good die level testing and packaging dwarfs current module individual assemble/test/packaging in efficiency and cost. The primary component is passive (think no moving parts to fail) which also makes it much more desirable and easy to insert into current manufacturing processes.
The hurdles left to clear are financial; short term financing to bridge to the long term financing created by selling off DenseLight. Then it becomes clear sailing.
Your concerns are valid strik. Years of disappointment, delays, disastrous PO. Many say that was the old regime, but all of the above also happened on Suresh's watch.
It is equally disturbing that we appear to be on the exact same path we were with the GaAs technology, walking up to the edge of success, then lots of silence.
But, while it seems money must be running out, we are now the better part of a full quarter into the new year and they keep chugging along, and less and less money will be needed to tide us over to September. I do think they are getting some up front cash from the DL buyer as part of the deal. It is the best explanation for now.
In the coming 10 weeks we will get answers, PIC, end of year report, 1q19 results, AGSM info, agenda and the mystery buyer. Didn't even include technical milestones, additional development deals, etc. Still a lot of weight(nearly 300 million shares) to move this up, but potential is there given the catalysts.
Ring and Lebby have no doubt already mapped that out where the technologies intersect. Looking forward to PIC.
Proto/strik, food for thought. As Proto mentioned Bill Ring was added as co-Chair for a reason. Why? A possibility - qualifying of the ROE should be complete, and there are specific metrics regarding performance that have been achieved. POET has mentioned a "substance" with dielectric properties used in their waveguides.
Where did LWLG suddenly get the information regarding the optoelectric properties of their materials as announced Feb 28? Is it possible that one of their substances is used in the POET Receive Optical Engine? Maybe co-Chairs have some co-announcements to make.
Buying now? If you think the financial worries are resolved and the tech is legitimately on its way, the long term prospects make this a great buy.
Further, PIC anticipation will likely add 15-25% to valuation in the next 2 weeks.
One more thought- DL sale creates two possibilities, the obvious cash and focus on OI platform and second, a clean balance sheet for a prospective buyout of POET's technology by a big player, once TROE is qualified.
Proto, I shared your good news on Agora.
Check this out all. March 26 panel discussion, Schmidtke- Facebook, Blum -Intel et al
Summary
PIC devices offer size, performance and energy advantages that have enabled rapid growth among optical component manufacturers while encouraging entrants offering new and novel insights. End users need high levels of consistent quality--the hallmarks of CMOS device fabrication--while process tool, assembly and test automation experts strive to support the unique requirements of PIC module TAP. Today’s PIC-based transceivers or PIC transceiver components are often assembled, packaged and tested manually. Is it possible to drive demand while the infrastructure needed to support it is still being conceived, designed and built?
Seems to me POET's chip scale integration and wafer scale assembly and test may be the perfect solution.
Sitting pretty thanks strik. This app keeps closing out if I msg more than a few lines. Lots of room to move yet.
I think the combined NR (buy DL and supply product) is very confusing.
If they has broken it into 2 NRs, "POET Announces Proposed Sale of DL Facility..." and "POET has entered into a substantive supply agreement..." ..."with a company who will expand DL and their own capacity to accommodate the anticipated volume" or words to this effect, it might be clearer.
I suspect they did want to downplay the anonymity in which 2 NRs would double down on the concept.
I see the partnership as simply a supply agreement, not an equity arrangement beyond the divesting of the DL entity.
Hey strik,
My only short term concern is, how does this eliminate any immediate cash concerns? Is there an agreement in place between the companies that provides some short term funding? I doubt that, other than maybe a 10% up front of $2-3 mil, but I would expect some up front money in exchange for POET not shopping for other buyers. Maybe more development deals to drop soon? Probably.
That's all the bad I got. The rest is all good. It tells me the OI is the real done deal and they are going to go all out to develop its diversification to the fullest. Anything they buy now will be 100% dedicated to it. The DenseLight facility provided a great base to work things out. You don't sell that facility unless you have no need for it any more. I recall that was largely a stock deal at close to a buck a share, on paper a $10 mil transaction, but at today's SP, it was less than $3 million deal. Nice.
'Fab light' - So will they look for a facility or lease space primarily for R&D but some (I'm guessing highly proprietary) pilot manufacturing/production? Where? Who knows.
I expect some big names to drop eventually, along with some big deals.
Selling some? I might try to do some short term flips, but will hold a core.
I don't know if this news will have any legs as it is so obscure; non binding, at least 6 months out, undisclosed buyer. I'm thinking more news this month though.
But for me, this confirms the technology is a full on beast that is going to be in high demand. Otherwise, if it is one or two products, you optimize the value by holding it close and controlling as much of the process as you can.
If it has potential for many, many applications, you go fabless, or fab light, and penetrate as many markets as you can as fast as you can. That's the plan.
Bottom line: short term concerns for liquidity, but overall the next 2 years should be a hell of a ride.
That was a Rodman and Renshaw underwritten financing I believe. Rumor has it someone associated with them intentionally shorted the hell out of it, drove it down to 48 cents on the day before closing, which also triggered a 25% premium to them that also drove the stock down to 36 cents CA. An incredible fleecing as they left the stock vulnerable for nearly 3 weeks before closing, mal intent was never more obvious.
I can't foresee doing a financing without any major promo, something material, but WTFDIK.
Something has to break very soon, hope it's not us.
W/apologies Narnia, not marina
Marina, you said "There was Chinese interest in us, but that is no more. Could anyone see a Chinese and Canadian, or American transaction now?? Not a way. Not now, a way."
Given their deal to work with Accelink, how do you see your statement as a positive for this company? You are suggesting that door is closed. Do you think an American company is poised to move in on POET?
Also, what do your contacts know and say about the technology? Is it proven sufficiently to have an impact in the industry.
Thanks for your thoughts.