full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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CLFD: Volatile stock; bought a small lot at 4.99 near close just to give me something to worry about tomorrow ;>)
... and with an assessment like that, ... well, to each his own.
IMHO, AGT is held down by fundamental issues such as high share count, uncertainty about changes in business arrangements with the bank, and Black Fox startup that underperformed expectations. Improved operations and timely payments to the bank are needed to take it up to .50 while any more disappointments could easily take it back into the mid-.30s.
Meanwhile, although I own a lot of AGT, I feel much more confident with GORO.
'peeker
PAL shareholders punk'd by big bought deal financing.
Down 7% at the open.
OT: Thanks, but I no longer Masbate.
OOPS; OGC.ax down a dime in Aussieland.
AGT: In that brief video, Mr. Winmill at Midas Fund expressed concern about AGT's 8ton forward hedge. Hedges are common in the miner space. Some argue that it's about cash flow vs. profits (especially when hedges hurt reported profits).
'peeker
AGT down .03 on below avg volume today. I'm assuming some quiet sellers are leaving the show due to expectation the banks will hit AGT again if payment schedule must be adjusted.
'peeker
AGT establishing downward trend until changes (benefitting bank) are known? Down .03 on light volume. Somebody must be unloading because they don't trust the banks (or mgt) to be giving a high priority to the benefit of AGT shareholders.
Well CMTP was not the play of the day, though I also like their story. I bought CMTP instead of CGDI (up 35% after mentioned here) or PUDZ (up 13% on uplisting news).
'peeker
OT: My O My! How we digress!
So many fundamentalists here, but we also occasionally show interest in TA (er, make that T&A).
'peeeeeeker
AGT: Wouldn't expect any sharp moves on this one (which I own) because of the LARGE #shares outstanding (plus cheap options galore) which appear to buffer any good news.
Their last good news about increasing yield for month of August was nice, but it's probably a result of passing more low grade to the subcontracted mill. If low grade ore were included in Black Fox yield computation, overall yield would be less than company is reporting. That said, the 1-2000 oz of Au to be milled will benefit AGT coffers, perhaps enough to satisfy the banks and allow AGT to make payments on time (we hope).
'peeker
FEED up 5% (perhaps buying as they are added to Ag Index):
((Wish I still owned it...))
AgFeed Industries, Inc. to be Added to S-Network ITG Agriculture Index(SM)
NEW YORK, Sept 14, 2009 /PRNewswire-Asia via COMTEX/ --
AgFeed Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: FEED), one of the largest independent hog production and animal nutrient companies in China, announced today that effective as of 6:00 PM (EDT) on Sunday, September 20, 2009, AgFeed will be included among the 30 stock components that comprise the S-Network ITG Agriculture Index(SM).
According to its website, "the S-Network ITG Agriculture Index(SM) is an equity index designed to serve as an equity benchmark for globally traded stocks that are principally engaged in the Global Agriculture Industry. Companies included in the [index] are engaged in 'primary' agricultural operations, specifically the production of agricultural commodities."
Songyan Li, AgFeed's Chairman, commented: "AgFeed is pleased to be included among the elite group of global agricultural companies that comprise the S-Network ITG Agriculture Index(SM). We believe we will continue to provide shareholder value as we implement the phases of our strategic plan."
Optimistic GORO price projection posted on Yahoo message board by "Rival":
Projected La Arista Cash Flow And Share Price
Posted by: "Paul" plbeaumont@commspeed.net rival_no2
Wed Sep 16, 2009 6:38 pm (PDT)
We have a lot of new members that may not have seen this before. It
really opens the eyes to what the potential is for GRC a year or two
from now. Take note of the bottom line where the projected share price
is listed.
Here's the latest metal prices:
Gold = $1,015
Silver = $17.42
Copper = $2.92
Lead = $1.03
Zinc = $0.87
3 meter mining width metal content for La Arista and Baja veins taken
from the October 2008 resource study:
Gold = 6.45g/tonne
Silver = 578g/tonne
Copper = 0.54% = 11.90 lbs/tonne
Lead = 1.79% = 39.45 lbs/tonne
Zinc = 6.67% = 147.01 lbs/tonne
Amount of recoverable metal:
Gold = 6.45g X 0.94 = 6.06g/tonne
Silver = 578g X 0.90 = 520g/tonne
Copper = 11.90 lbs X 0.90 = 10.71 lbs.
Lead = 39.45 lbs X 0.90 = 35.50 lbs.
Zinc = 147.01 lbs. X 0.90 = 132.31 lbs.
Dollar value per tonne of recoverable metal at today's spot price:
Gold = 6.06 / 31.1 X $1,015 = $197.78
Silver = 520 / 31.1 X $17.42 = $291.27
Copper = 10.71 X $2.92 = $31.27
lead = 35.50 X $1.03 = $36.56
Zinc = 132.31 X $0.87 = $115.11
Total value of recoverable metal = $671.99 / tonne
Total value of precious metals = $489.05 / tonne
Total value of base metals = $182.94 / tonne
Percentage of value in precious metals = 72.7%
Value of recoverable metal per day = 1,150 t/d X $643.32 = $772,788 /day
Cost to process at $98 a tonne = $98 X 1,150 = $112,700
Free cash flow per day = $772,788 minus $112,700 = $660,088 / day
Assuming 328 mill days a year (90% up time) = $660,088 X 328 =
$216,508,864 / year
There will a discount to the total because the refiners pay a discount
to spot price. The discount runs from 1% to 3% for gold and silver and
maybe 10% for base metals. Approximately 71% of the value is in the
precious metals so let's use an overall discount of 4%. So the free
cash flow would be:
$216,508,864 X .96 = $207,848,509 a year
Assuming 50 million shares, that works out to be $4.16 a share in free
cash flow.
Figuring 1/3 of free cash flow, the dividend would be $1.39 a share.
Earnings per share should be approximately $2.77 a share.
Assuming a PE ratio of 20, the share price would be $55 a share!!!!
If this comes to fruition in the next two years (or less), the cost of
the mine/mill is going to look dirt cheap at $30 million. Can it
happen? Absolutely. And if the price of the metals continues higher,
it just gets better.
Note: The cost to process a tonne of ore ($98) is way up from the cost
of $68 I used last time. The $98 cost is taken from Jason's
presentation which is on GRC's website. Based on what has been reported
by Gammon Gold and others, the $98 cost seems to be very conservative.
Obviously, if $98 proves to be too high, the earnings will be better
than what is presented here. Interestingly, I believe the previous
presentation used a cost of $68 or $70, which is very close to what
Gammon says it cost them to mine and mill underground ore.
Rival
What "great words from Hochshilds webcast" are you talking about? If you have a link, please post.
thanks,
'peeker
APWR keeps right on moving and making news.
10:48 A-Power Energy to acquire japanese thin-film PV equipment maker EVATECH (11.38 +0.16)
Co announced that it has signed a definitive contract to acquire 100% of EVATECH. The total consideration is $49.9 million in cash. The transaction is expected to close by the end of November 2009. A-Power is to fund 55% of the transaction from the Company's internal financial resources. The balance, or 45%, will come from foreign-investment grants from various levels of the local government (20% from the Liaoning Provincial Government, 20% from the Shenyang Municipal Government, and the remaining 5% from the Hunan New District Government in Shenyang). "We expect EVATECH to begin revenue contribution in late 2010."
Bought VVUS at 11.40 as they claim weight-loss drug QNEXA is a cure for lard-ass (a very common medical condition). Sold LPIH and CMTP on recent pops.
10:29 Vivus jumps ~0.40 as takeover rumor makes the rounds (11.57 +0.32)
Excerpt from 9/9/2009 news:
CEO Wilson is optimistic that Qnexa's strong data will capture the industry's attention. He said he plans to sit down with interested parties, along with Chief Operating Officer Peter Tam, rather than hire outside advisers to negotiate for the company.
"It won't be a banker, I'll tell you that right now," he said. "We know the drug, we know its potential and we know what it is worth."
Although Vivus is looking for a sales partner, larger companies may be more interested in buying the company outright, a situation that is familiar to Wilson.
When he worked for Syntex Corp., it was acquired by Roche Holding AG (RHHBY), and when he worked for LifeScan Inc., it was bought by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).
"I have no choice in this matter," he said. "When they come knocking on the door, you can either play with them [on the price of a deal] or they can take it out to a shareholder vote."
'peeker
10bagger, congrats on a verrrry nice CLFD profit.
OT: farside, no prob, enjoy!
OT: farside, yes, I did take the photo myself (taken down low, sort of like what Moses would have seen from the bull rushes).
Montana trip was G R E A T fun !!!
'peeker
Hmmm... GORO down .30 today on small volume.
Gotta wonder if someone has heard about their encountering any operational hiccups as they tune their equip, train the newhires, and produce the Ag and Au, plus Cu, Zn, and other stuff to reduce effective cost per Au oz.
'peeker
The earth moved ...
LPIH: Clarification has optimistic outlook"
Jim Crane stated: "I wish to clarify and correct certain assumptions made regarding the capital raise and its impact on earnings for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2010. The proposed capital raise will not affect EBIDTA, which is expected to increase from $39 million in fiscal 2009 to $47 million in fiscal 2010, which equates to EBITDA per share of approximately $0.50. The raise will affect net income in fiscal 2010. A one-time charge will be reflected in the Company's financial statements over the three-year term of the financing instrument, including fiscal 2010. The one-time charge is expected to total approximately $3.3 million. The estimated net income for fiscal 2010 is expected to be approximately $34 million.
We are projecting revenue of approximately $322 million in fiscal 2011, net income of $81 million, and earnings per share of approximately $0.86 per share."
ZIXI: Swampboots, OK, I bought some yesterday on your recommendation. Any idea what was in the speech to boost ZIXI?
'peeker
GORO's mill will not support 300,000 oz per year. See their last presentation on their website. I think they expect up to about 170,000 equivalent oz/yr by the third year.
Production startup usually has a few hiccups. Theirs is a complicated mill operation, as they will be going after gold, silver, copper, and zinc to get the high yield ("equivalent" gold ounces/tonne) that they have been predicting. When AGT didn't get the yield they were expecting, lot's of investors left in a hurry.
That said, the recent good prices of gold AND silver should help them make major money (hand over fist) from the get-go which will gain the attention of new investors. Hochshield and the REIDs and a couple of other big companies own a large percent of total shares, and they ain't sellin'. The Reids' efforts to keep the GORO "float" down is one reason they've had strong moves lately, and when investors do their DD on GORO, they see a proverbial gold mine in the making.
As for future price moves, I hope it just back up into the low sixes if they announce operational hiccups, so I can buy back a few shares I let go in the upper sixes.
AGT busting a move today. Anybody hearing good news from Black Fox or Gray Fox?
KiK, I mentioned Geoinvesting a couple of weeks back, but Greg Bradford had a slightly negative view of the Geoinvesting guys because (paraphrasing) they excluded too many early small stocks from consideration. I agree with you that they do provide a good summary of a number of small China stocks.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40625770&txt2find=geoinvesting
'peeker
Gone hiking for a few days ... good luck, y'all.
I dedicate this win to Maria Buttaroma!!!
Economic Insight: War! What is it good for? Absolutely Everything... for GDP Growth!
The preliminary GDP report confirmed the contraction in GDP slowed in Q2. GDP declined "only" 1.0% in the quarter and beat consensus expectations of a -1.5% growth rate.
Market analysts have announced the end to the Great Recession and that a strong recovery is on its way.
But, is this true? Is the economy really ready for a strong recovery?
Unfortunately, we don't think so.
What happened in Q2?
Let's first review Q2:
GDP Component Growth Direction
Personal Consumption Expenditures Negative
Nonresidential Fixed Investment Negative
Residential Investment Negative
Inventory Change Negative
Exports Negative
Imports Negative
Government Spending Positive
The only sectors that produced a positive contribution to GDP were government spending and net exports. And net export growth was only positive because consumer demand for imports continued to fall faster than global demand for exports.
Personal consumption expenditures account for approximately 70% of GDP, and as you can see the numbers look abysmal.
Personal Consumption Expenditures Growth Direction
Motor Vehicles and Parts Negative
Furnishings Negative
Recreational Goods Negative
Other Durable Goods Negative
Food Positive
Clothing Negative
Gasoline Negative
Other Nondurable Goods Negative
Housing and Utilities Negative
Health Care Positive
Transportation Services Negative
Recreation Services Negative
Food Services Negative
Financial Services Positive
Other Services Positive
The fixed investment data looks worse.
Fixed Investment Growth Direction
Nonresidential Structures Negative
Computers and Software Negative
Industrial Equipment Negative
Transportation Equipment Positive
Other Equipment Negative
Residential Investment Negative
The only data that looks strong is from government spending!
Government Expenditures Growth Direction
National Defense Positive
Federal Nondefense Positive
State and Local Positive
What about Q3 and Beyond?
In order for a recovery to be sustainable we need to see positive growth in a broad spectrum of sectors, and right now we don't have it.
We expect the Cash for Clunkers stimulus package to have boosted motor vehicle sales enough to show positive growth in PCE in Q3. However, once the package concluded visits to dealerships dropped dramatically. There is no evidence to suggest motor vehicle sales will continue to grow at stimulus levels.
We expect inventories growth to occur over the next few quarters. This too may add a strong positive contribution to Q3 GDP. But unless consumer demand picks up, inventory production will remain stunted. By the end of 2010, inventory growth will again be a drag on GDP.
Analysts are suggesting fixed investment could possibly grow by the beginning of 2010 as the housing contraction ends. But, other than Q2 of 2007, fixed investment has been negative quarter-over-quarter since the middle of 2006.
The housing sector is still way too over supplied and any growth in residential investment will be minor. Industries have lots of excess capacity and consumer demand remains low. The fundamentals do not suggest a recovery in fixed investment until at least the middle of 2010.
The Elephant in the Room
That leaves the government as the sole source of demand.
According to various economic reports, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act provided between $60 billion (IMF) to $100 billion (Christina Romer) in additional expenditures in Q2.
Analyses from Goldman Sachs and Moody's Economy.com estimated the fiscal stimulus increased Q2 GDP by 2.2 percentage points and 3.0 percentage points respectively. Without the stimulus plan, GDP would have declined between 3.2% and 4.0%.
Most of the stimulus monies went to securing state and local government expenditures. It's safe to say without the stimulus package, state and local governments would have provided a negative contribution to GDP. Federal nondefense expenditures also relied heavily on stimulus money.
So what's left that's sustainable without the help of a stimulus plan?
National defense expenditures provided the largest positive contribution to GDP in Q2. As the military ramps up spending to tackle Afghanistan, we expect national defense spending to continue to grow.
And you thought war was good for absolutely nothing.
--Jeff Rosen, PhD, Briefing.com
GORO up again (news; only small ball mill remains to be set):
GOLD RESOURCE CORPORATION SETS LARGE GRINDING BALL MILL
DENVER – August 28, 2008 – Gold Resource Corporation (GRC) (OTCBB: GORO, FRANKFURT: GIH) reports setting the large grinding ball mill on its foundation at GRC’s Aguila Project as the final phase of mill construction continues. The Aguila mill is located in the southern state of Oaxaca, Mexico and is targeting gold production in 2009 subject to equipment delivery and construction schedules.
Gold Resource Corporation’s President, Mr. William Reid stated, “This truly is a milestone as this is the largest piece of equipment to be installed. We are very pleased with the excellent work to date by our engineering and construction management firm Lyntek, Inc. of Denver and in Mexico, Covasa, Inc. who is completing the final mill contract for mechanical and electrical installation.”
Only 1150 tons per day mill capacity seems a little low compared to some.
Current Gold Price ($950) used for price/share in yr3:
They used $950/oz for gold to calculate Operating Cash Flow to get $27/share and Annual Dividend of $1.22/share to yield $30/share stock.
CSGH: I don't think they do the earnings PRs, at least they haven't in past, but they may be starting to flaunt good earnings since they have been announcing contracts on testing of eco-friendly products. Still it looks like the earnings news is out there as much as it's gonna be out there, and all we got was a 3.5% boost in pps.
Tough day in the mkt, so not expecting anything more out of CSGH today.
IAE.v/IACAF.pk finally crawling out of the cellar though.
CSGH: Just reviewing details from Yahoo, if fullyr earnings are .16, that must mean 4Q eps was .05 vs. .06 yr ago. Still fullyr 09 eps is .16 vs 08 fullyr of .11, a nice increase. Also looks like total Revs were up 40% yr/yr.
Seeing a nice boost in buying volume over last 15mins via Tradestation charts.
DOW -37
AGT: Acting like C R A P today. After hitting .43 on Monday, we are back at .37, so it makes me wonder what somebody knows that I don't.
YMI on another nice run today, up 28% now ...
10:03 FDIC issues Q2 Quarterly Banking Profile; "Problem List" expands to 15-year high
Burdened by costs associated with rising levels of troubled loans and falling asset values, FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions reported an aggregate net loss of $3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2009. Increased expenses for bad loans were chiefly responsible for the industry's loss. Insured institutions added $66.9 billion in loan-loss provisions to their reserves during the quarter, an increase of $16.5 billion (32.8 percent) compared to the second quarter of 2008. Quarterly earnings were also adversely affected by writedowns of asset-backed commercial paper, and by higher assessments for deposit insurance. Almost two out of every three institutions (64.4 percent) reported lower quarterly earnings than a year ago, and more than one in four (28.3 percent) reported a net loss for the quarter. A year ago, the industry reported a quarterly profit of $4.7 billion, and fewer than one in five institutions (18 percent) were unprofitable. The average return on assets (ROA) was -0.11 percent, compared to 0.14 percent in the second quarter of 2008... The amount of loans and leases that were noncurrent (90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status) increased for a 13th consecutive quarter, and the percentage of total loans and leases that were noncurrent reached a new record. Noncurrent loans and leases increased by $41.4 billion (14.3%) during the second quarter, led by 1-4 family residential mortgages (up $15.4 billion, or 12.7%), real estate construction and development loans (up $10.2 billion, or 16.6%), and loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential real estate properties (up $7.1 billion, or 29.2 percent)... This is the highest level for the noncurrent rate in the 26 years that insured institutions have reported noncurrent loan data. On a more positive note, loans that were 30-89 days past due declined by $16.7 billion (10.6%). This is the largest quarterly decline in dollar terms in the 26 years that these data have been reported, and the largest percentage decline since the first quarter of 2004, when 30-89 day past due loans were one-third the current level... The number of insured commercial banks and savings institutions reporting financial results fell to 8,195 in the quarter, down from 8,247 reporters in the first quarter. Thirty-nine institutions were merged into other institutions during the quarter, twenty-four institutions failed, and there were twelve new charters added. During the quarter, the number of institutions on the FDIC's "Problem List" increased from 305 to 416, and the combined assets of "problem" institutions rose from $220.0 billion to $299.8 billion. This is the largest number of "problem" institutions since June 30, 1994, and the largest amount of assets on the list since December 31, 1993...
GRVY: Playing Fantasy Stock is over now. Earned .06 and down 15% today so far.
The GRVY train just ran out of gas or steam or mules or whatever it was running on.
YMI is no prize ... did you actually buy this momo dog?
I chased it, caught it, and fell down and couldn't get up with it.
O U C H ...
TCNW: So... how sure can one be that the money will ever make it into TCNW's coffers?
Excerpt from the PR:
"While this award is final and binding, collection of the award remains subject to confirmation and enforcement. "
This "binding arbitration" sounds like an actual conclusion, but do you know if the perpetrator has the cash to pay TCNW?
At this point are you taking your double and getting out or holding for a particular price?
'peeker
pa> I bought some today but assume there is still some risk the money will never change hands.