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Good lessons learned from AVXL investment in 2017.
- Very much of patience is needed...very very much.
- Never listen to anonymous cheerleaders or naysayers on this MB.
- Never predict event timelines and make an investment solely based on company presentation materials. I got burned so bad this year... You can do so much other things with your money.
- Do not trust CEO 100%. (I am down to 50% from 2018 and I don't blame him. I want to believe that he did his best. I blame myself for trusting CEO too much.)
- Once you invest money, forget about it for couple years and risk the amount that you are okay to lose all.
It was great lessons I learned.
I am confident that SP will be recovered in 2018, but do not know when. I do not even want to make a guess. I had enough in 2017.
I have also lowered my confidence level for the science behind AVXL. Until I see more success stories and proven data from the company, it's best to keep me out from being biased and blinded.
As soon as SP is recovered, I am taking out half of my investment on AVXL and save it for my kids' Christmas present for 2018.
I still believe in the science, but reducing my risk tolerance.
Good luck to everyone.
123tom,
I am one of your fan to read your TA chartings.
If you can also combine how options price and expiration date can impact your expectation of SP, I would appreciate and that would give better picture of your TA.
Thanks!
Poguemahone,
You just spoke my feeling on the company, Missling, and the reality on the situation now.
Thanks for your comments and continue to provide your thoughts.
Are long-term shareholders valued and appreciated by the company?
By next Friday(12/22), the following can be determined.
- Christmas present given to Anavex employees including Missling with stock options at strikingly LOW share price which is good for them.
- Christmas present given to Anavex long-term shareholders? (Some great news to boost Stock Share Price so that shareholders can take some profit vs. no news with continuous bleeding down stock price below $3)
If Missling REALLY cares about long-term shareholders, then he wouldn't let the stock price bleeding down like this and take 400K stock options for himself.
We will find out soon.
Thanks raja,
Sincerely appreciate your understanding and encouragement.
I am sure there must be other longs who may share the same frustration.
I do believe this company has the real science and need more patience.
It's just me that I tried to play smart myself based on pieces of information from Missling from here and there and made further investment which got crashed down badly.
I tried to connect the dots on:
- MTA with BIIB and positive MS results and speculation of partnership or buyout.
- Missling's stock purchase plan (375 shares) in 2017 vs. purchase plan in 2015
- 3 Trials in 2017
- FDA's new mission and guideline
- and more
I thought something positive news should be announced by this year, but nothing happened so far.
I've been disappointed many times since my investment started from 2015 with AVXL and very used to that.
I am sure 2018 should show more progress and results and reflects better share price than now.
In the long run, I believe AVXL will be very successful.
Thanks,
Missling gets X-Mas bonus.. Great.. For what?
MS deal with BIIB?
Until the real news on MS deal, let's stop pumping about his bonus might be related to such a deal. I am really getting disgusted.
My stock investment on AVXL got so bad that I regret to have too much confidence on Missling's words this year on this and that... I didn't lose any money yet because I didn't sell any shares, but I lost great amount of OPPORTUNITY COST for other investment with the money into AVXL. Current stock price is so terrible that I can't even sell with huge loss.
I don't blame him. He probably did his best and I want to believe him until the truth is revealed.
After two weeks, I will look back and regret and blame myself for being so stupid and putting extra investments on AVXL based on Missling's presentations and plans, if nothing happens and no more PR's.
It was the best DD I could have...sucks.
No X-Mas present for my kids this year.
Hope I am wrong..we still have two more weeks left.
May be this might help from Nov. 9, 2017.
https://alliancerm.org/sites/default/files/ARM_WelcomeRemarks_EUInvestorDay2017_FINAL_PDF.pdf
On page 12:
U.S. FDA RMAT Designation:
• Thus far, has been awarded to: Humacyte’s Humacyl; Enzyvant’s RVT-802; jCyte’s jCell; Vericel’s ixmyelocel; Mallinckrodt’s
Stratagraft; Kiadis’s ATIR101; Asterias’s AST-OPC1; Athersys’s MultiStem; Cellvation’s CEVAL101
Not seeing Northwest Bio from this...
Hopefully NWBO is listed from somewhere else...
I would love to take Missling's word...only 31 days left.
We will find out soon.
After 31 days, I will make my own judgement on him being a "Good Dr." or not.
If there's some explanation made to missing 3 trials in 2017, in case it happened, then I would still consider him as a "Good Dr." Otherwise, I would criticize myself for trusting Missling TOO MUCH.
Let's wait and see what comes out by 2017.
I understand what you are saying. I am not accusing Missling for making mistakes yet. He may or may not have screwed up on something and that might have impacted progress or delays. Only he would know.
No one knows what's going on behind the curtain. All we can do is just speculating based on pieces of information from here and there.
One mistake I made was that I TRUSTED HIM TOO MUCH that I counted every single word he made and setup my own plan based on his words which believed to be better than trusting someone from this MB.
Since 2017 is not over yet, I will wait and see if he is really committed to deliver what he said on public.
In 2018, I will look back and re-evaluate Missling's credentials on his wording to the public and more importantly, how he handled things that he might have missed and communicating to the shareholders.
I hope no one makes the same mistakes as I did.. and hopefully Missling makes some kind of PR on 3 trials by this year.
GLTY
I am completely with you, Fireman.
I am not going to sell all of my long-term shares, but I would certainly reduce my long-term share amounts if we don't see trial starting soon. I am tired of manipulation and keep missing profit takings like $14's and $8's.
I am okay with Missling making mistakes because that's human nature. However, it's not okay with me for not telling me about the mistakes.
Enough is enough and I don't have much patience left.
GLTU
Are we ever gonna get PR on 3 trials this year?
What about BIIB MTA update?
What was the purpose of Missling's 375 share purchases?
Hope we don't go back to mid $2's....but it may be possible IF nothing is said about 3 trials this year...
Missling's 375 share purchases...
What was his intention of such purchases? I don't think he scheduled such purchase plan without any thoughts. It looked like well calculated and pointing to certain event.
Did he expect PPS to rise after CTAD and roadshow? I thought the result of CTAD presentation was excellent, but somehow "the market" did not think the way I thought. It certainly didn't seem like PPS has been moved.. Thanks to MM's for manipulating stock price.
Perhaps, BIIB's deal is on the near horizon? I don't know...
Like Missling said many times that trials are planned to start this year, I will be patiently waiting for that happen.
If no trial starts this year, even one trial, then I will acknowledge that I was wrong about Missling and realize the reality and move on to other investment.
I will only have small portion of my investment left for AVXL for long-long term since I believe this science has a very high chances of success.
I can't believe I put so much money into this company for more than 2 years and there's no difference in PPS 2 years ago and now. Basically, I buried $$$ into my backyard for 2 years.. Well, it was my decision..
Good Luck to All Longs.
Anavex CTAD presentation slide:
http://www.anavex.com/my_uploads/Anavex-ANAVEX2-73-CTAD-Phase-2a-November-2017.pdf
For anyone who missed or has trouble finding the slide...
Good Luck.
Looking at Level 2, this looks crazy.
Technical chart analysis does not seem to match with what's going on nowadays.
It looks definitely like someone with money is playing with stock trading and manipulating.
For example, it was trading at 4.12 between 4.11 BID and 4.12 ASK, and when I placed 5000 shares BUY order at 4.10, it instantly filled up and dropped BID to 4.08.
I am expecting some catalyst by next week and price jump up as quickly as it just fell down couple days in the past.
While holding my core positions for long-term, I decided to swing trade some of spare money until next week.
I consider current SP is cheap.
Good Luck to all Longs!
Missling's purchase pattern with 750, 375, 375,......750.
Looks to me that he is done purchasing shares... What's next?
Wildcard,
I've been a fan of your postings since 2 years ago and greatly appreciate your effort of keeping us updated on this SLB rate status.
I believe there's a correlation between SLB rate and our past two time Stock plunges in 2015 and 2016.
Your posting is still valuable to some people who've been through those painful days.
Thank you and please keep us updated regardless.
GLTU
I am expecting Positive PR related to the result of Biogen MTA on A2-73.
oops.. I missed your post.. Sorry.
Yeah, it may sound odd, but somehow looking at the whole situation, timing of event, etc, it seems like something could happen next week.
I am no scientist nor medical person. But I am having an engineering background, trained to apply theory into the real world with lots of running computer simulation and validating simulation with actual data analysis.
So far, based on all the facts/events(data) collected, my simulation result tells me next week has high probability of PR...Of course, it's only my opinion. I am not trying to pump the stock because it doesn't help much to the share price without solid backing up evidence.
Let's find out if our GUT FEELING is right or wrong by next week. :)
Good Luck~
Last year, Anavex presented at Ladenburg Thalmann 2016, Tuesday, September 27, 2016 at 2:00 pm Eastern Time. Share price closed around $3.20 on that day with volume less than 1M shares.
The next day, September 28, 2016, Anavex released news on Material Transfer Agreement with Biogen in the early morning, which pushed the share price up and opened around $4.05, peaked to $4.87, and then closed with $4.14.. and the volume traded more than 25M shares.
Okay, now looking at this year...
Next Tuesday, September 26, Anavex will make a presentation at Ladenburg Thalmann...
And the following day, September 27, should be the last day of 1 year Biogen MTA.
Missling, our CEO of Anavex, has been purchasing shares for more than a month on every week. From June to July of 2015, Missling purchased shares every week for certain period, and then the share price tripled within couple weeks.
If you have been with Anavex long enough, then you may be able to connect the dots from the history. Dejavu...
My own DD for this situation is telling me that next week will be different than the rest of all quiet days we had so far. This is just my opinion and another possibility...
I am out of powder to buy more shares... I should be happy with my 5 Dragon Balls.
Good Luck~~
According to the Wall Street Whispers, it says the meeting took place on last Tuesday.
That was 9/5 where we had PPS jumped from $4.72 to $5.13 in the morning and high volume trading(more than 500K) than usual days.
Either the person wrote on WSW made up such a nice plausible story after studying Anavex trading history on 9/5, or maybe the rumor reflects the real reason why we had such a spike on that day.
This is really getting interesting...much and much more than talking about some dude with Senior Director title leaving Anavex and listening to this another dude who seldom posted on this board but all of a sudden keep posting about such a topic this weekend. Another addition to my ignore list.
As a long investor, I believe Anavex is the real thing. We have endured storms in the past and finally our time is coming.
GLTA
That's a good explanation, Xena.
Do you have any protection guideline against unexpected crashing PPS, like those sudden drops that we had from $14 in 2015 and from $8 in 2016?
I know wildcard is regularly updating short interest rate that's somewhat relevant to those activities. We had over 100% before those crashing PPS days, so if we see another 100% over rate, then that's when we should be careful.
Other than that, is there any other way to at least protect your money against those PPS crashing manipulated by Wall Street cabals? I can only think of putting stop loss that's far away from current PPS...
Thanks and good luck.
Actually I put stop at $4.66 and limit to $4.65 just in case for sudden drop.
This is the record showing on my E-trade Pro.
-7600 of AVXL @ $4.651
-2180 of AVXL @ $4.65
-500 of AVXL @ $4.6601
-5620 of AVXL @ $4.66
-100 of AVXL @ $4.69
(Total 16,000)
It seems to me that Algos had targeted my 16K shares at 3:15 p.m. And I was doing something else by that time...
I was half speculating if this would really happen to me, but it really happened...
Good lesson for me.
It was Algos took my 16K shares put on stop loss at $4.65.
Never expected.
I got in again at avg of $4.75...
I had to buy multiple times in 1000's shares without affecting the price.
Gotta be careful with my stops next time...
No purchase announcement of 375 shares today by Dr. M.
His signaling pattern has changed.
Is he done with his signaling message to the public and the action coming next?
Just a gut feeling that there's something coming soon... Starting with a "Tip of Iceberg"...
September 1 is this Friday.
Of course, it's my opinion..
GLTA
Why would Dr. Missling buy 750 shares all of a sudden?
Does he feel like to spend money to buy AVXL shares to trade, for fun? Buy shares to keep long-term retirement for himself? Absolutely not, IMHO. He has the most shares and it doesn't make sense for him to feel like to buy more shares....only 750 shares.
The only reasonable explanation that I can come up with is that he is exposing himself to the public and let the public figure out his motive. This could be another signal to the long-term loyal investors.
2 years ago, we saw that he had signaled the public with 1000 shares of buying before a major announcement.
Could it be another "history repeat"?
I think so....
Would Dr. Missling get into any legal trouble for signalling 750 shares?
I don't think so... buying 1000 shares, maybe...
You are more than welcomed to comment if you have any better explanation to Dr. M's 750 share buying.
GLTA
I saw 4 million shares on ask, too.
It was shown as 4000K for split seconds on my E-Trade Pro Level 2, and then disappeared.
I thought it was a glitch or display error.
Thanks for clarifying 283K trading record at closing.
I bought 15K shares 5 minutes before closing and saw that price drop and size... kind of scared me right after I bought...leading me to speculate that Yonemura case result might have gotten leaked in negative direction.. which doesn't seem like it.
Good to know the fact.
Still holding and believing company's success on P3 result.
My decision to hold onto this company is simple... Whatever the statistically significant data that people speculate on PFS & OS, whatever FDA sets their requirement on stat. sig. value, as of June ASCO period "100 people out of 331 people are still surviving" tells me that this company's DCVAX works better than SOC. Period. It's simple logic that I am sticking to.
If P3 fails for whatever reason, then let it be that way...
Patience and Good Luck to all those believe in DCVAX.
283,101 shares trading at $0.222038 at 16:00:44.
Isn't it considered as After Hour Trading?
Either someone bought at discount or someone sold at lower price...
It couldn't be a retail, could it?
July 28. Yonemura vs. Powers "Final Resolution"
Tomorrow is the day. Not quite sure if this will be THE FINAL...
Christine Yonemura is a nurse at UCSF... A nurse against multiple companies? Why? What for? Doesn't make sense for this whole situation.
Does anyone knows the background of this law suit?
TIA
Anavex got Angel Award in 2016.
https://www.rettsyndrome.org/research/our-funded-programs/research-awardees/2016
Daniel Klamer, PhD, Anavex Life Sciences
Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Dose-Titration of ANAVEX 2-73 in Patients with Rett Syndrome
Budget: $ 597,886
ARE WE NOT READY TO START A TRIAL YET????
My TD Ameritrade Watchlist shows NWBO as following: (As of 12:06 a.m. 6/5/2017 Pacific Time)
NWBO
BID ASK LAST Change % Change $ Volume High Low
0.53 0.6096 0.183 210.66% 0.3855 1.96M 0.184 0.18
Is this a bug or something is going to happen on Monday???
It seems AVI's expression is not any better than Dr. Liau's bias since he does not own any NWBO shares and keep posting his intellectual pretending negative bias. Whatever he posts in any intellectual way, I have no confidence he would be any better and intelligent in this GBM area than Dr. Liau.
Chuckling...
I have a feeling that NWBO will be successful, and it's my humble opinion, of course.
GLTA
Good Try....
You are in the wrong board, pal.. We got many people who understands the company in this board.
Next time, try to read through the company presentation slide before posting your baseless comments about upcoming catalysts...
Get real..
Yes, I am positive and being patient.
Just wished that I bought more shares when pps dropped to mid-$2's. I used all of my powder before 2016 crash in the summer, but I am happy with my positions.
I've seen kld2 for years positing here... Doesn't bother me much because I've already done my DD and believe this company will succeed.
Mine is 34,500 since Sep. 2015.
BTW, please VOTE for the company if you haven't done yet.
Anavex Shareholder Meeting:
"You are invited to attend the 2017 Annual Meeting of Stockholders of Anavex Life Sciences Corp. which will be held on Tuesday, April 18, 2017, 10:00 a.m., local time, at the offices of Nasdaq MarketSite, 4 Times Square, New York, NY 10036."
The location of our upcoming shareholders meeting is taking place at the same building where NASDAQ Market Bell Ceremony is taking place.
Is this a usual place for companies in Manhattan NY to have shareholders meeting?
I thought the meetings usually take place at hotel conference rooms.
Maybe it's time to have another ceremony for Anavex in such a place?
IMHO, something is cooking and very positive news soon, because I can smell. lol
GL everyone and please vote!!
Proxy voting for Anavex through Etrade, TD Ameritrade, Fidelity are done online today, 0.1% of company OS had been voted to support the company.
We would need at least 999 of me to make 100% voting.
Let's show our support to AVXL.
This is amazing...
From $5.94 to $5.77 with 100 shares at 17:13:27.
This is crazy and hard to believe manipulation can make this possible...
Hopefully we won't have to deal with this kind of POS once the science is proven to work in the future...
Patience and Holding.
England is ahead of U.S.
It's 10:07 a.m. 2/23 Eastern time U.S. and 3:07 p.m. 2/23 England
5 hours ahead.
Isn't today the due date for NICE appraisal?
Could this be related to sudden upside on Bid?
Anyone has information, please share with us.
NWBO @ 10:01 a.m. 2/23/2017
Bid 0.41(223,060)
Ask 0.414 (13,500)
Volume 97,520
All of a sudden, Bid increased, but no action's taking place now for couple minutes so far...
What is going on?