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What do you think of the volume or lack thereof the past few days as well as lack of supply. Every day the stock doesn't head lower recently seems to back the theory of Hogset being the big dumper (of course dilution, short selling etc. contributed to amplification of the downside pressure).
Everyone is confusing Garrett's comments. If I am not mistaken, he is simply saying management's priority is Tri-way financing. Once that takes place all other "triggers" can then be discussed, like cash dividends etc. This has always been known.
RealDutch, you have continuously said that SIAF has the money to pay cash dividends, which I never thought they did. After financing closes, however, I believe they will. Management believes so too. Realistically (especially considering how high the share count has gone) how much per quarter ($.05/share?) do you think the company can pay as a dividend? I think it was aqua who said he hopes they will announce the dividend for Q2 in the upcoming Q1 report but I personally think we'll have to at least wait till Q3 for cash dividends. I wouldn't mind being surprised, however. Waiting for Q3 for the actual payout wouldn't matter too much for me or most people IMO as long as they lay out the plan.
This is the SIAF board Petrejus. Land of factless speculation! And if you say it enough times, it becomes truth around here. Like when people shouted that "the loan was dead" or "collateral shares are being sold" or "they are topping up endless shares again" etc etc.
I think we just got our answer this week as to who has been aggressively selling since Hoghset came out saying he has sold out already. I know there are many retail guys who have sold out as well due to the price decrease (possibly from Hoghset selling and any dilution from the company). No doubt short sellers were taking advantage of supply hitting the market as well. How big is the short position I have no idea but these are the facts I do know:
-Garrett already has immediate and long term plans on how to unleash shareholder value and will/already has put pressure on management to thoughtfully enact these policies once financing is closed.
-Very recently the company has expressed confidence in closing the $100M Tri-way loan explaining that they are in the advanced stages.
-In a few weeks we will get details about the timing and amount of cash dividends from the company.
-Tri-way is already very profitable which has high growth potential at the MegaFarm with financing and has found new opportunities through a Trading Division in Hong Kong with estimates of $300-$500M in revenue per year at a healthy profit margin.
-When financing gets done CA will tremendously increase cash flow for SIAF
-CA has several prospects for new partnerships/contracts
-The Tri-way dividend will be distributed to SIAF shareholders some time in Q3 2018.
-Collateral shares can't be sold and top-up of shares has not occurred since Q3 2017.
-Audited book value is multiples higher than current price.
I believe the company will put a cap on the outstanding share count once they close the $100M Tri-way loan. Putting a cap on outstanding share count was on Garrett's list as well.
At least from a technical standpoint it looks like we may have put in a bottom. I'll call Dan just to make sure though..
Since Hoghset has said he is done selling all his shares I think it is clear that is where a majority of the "dumping" was coming from, particularly since the selling seemed to have stopped days before his announcement.
And whoever is OTCX on the ask who bought the 22500 shares for .46 cents yesterday...if you are patient you will get your shares off otherwise MM will continue to successfully front run you down like they did to you yesterday.
Just curious what your experience level is in the stock market?
Have you ever seen an FDA approval in a biotech stock? The PPS is based on the willingness of buyers and sellers to buy/sell at a particular price at that given moment not just the amount of buyers and sellers. If Hoghset was willing to sell at lower prices than Garrett was willing to buy, then the price would still go down even as Garrett accumulated. No doubt Garrett also picked up the share difference from exhausted retail investors as well.
Can you post a link or translate what the article or headline says?
I don't know whether it is true but as has been mentioned before, there were many rumors and lots of evidence pointing to the fact that Fredly was/is short shares of SIAF. I have spoken with Garrett but have never spoken with Fredly. I believe the company intends to clarify and put a cap on the outstanding share count once and for all once they get the proper financing we have all been waiting for. They are aware of shareholders concerns (the extensive details within the 10-K addressing many unanswered questions should be evident of that) and obviously once a permanent cap on the outstanding share count is done this would appease current shareholders and new prospective investors (particularly institutional investors) significantly improving the share price.
Correct. I think they want to close it before announcing the annual conference call so they have good news to talk about.
You just said it. Plenty of pissed off shareholders or ex shareholders like yourself that believe there is less than a 1% chance of them delivering. I believe there is a very high chance of them delivering > 85%. Unbelievably asymmetrical odds at these prices because everyone can agree the stock would move multiples higher from here if they do. And as I've recently told another ex shareholder, I am sure you yourself will be a buyer once they start delivering and you start to see the share price finally rise.
Little bidding war going on at the bid. I think we'll see .50's today
Why I'm invested in this stock and recently purchased more:
-Cash dividends this year as recently stated in the 10K
-Tri-way distribution in a few months (Q3 2018)
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140113149
-$100M Tri-way loan with 2-3 additional loans for new business development for Tri-way with, "Estimates of performance from this division initially shows trade sales amounting to $300 to $500m per year at a healthy profit margin"
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140113462
-Garrett recently buying and owning an enormous portion of the company (to the point of being an insider now) who laid out his shareholder friendly vision which he will/already is pushing for as detailed here:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=140179124
Right now there is obvious doubt reflected in the company delivering these shareholder friendly actions but I am very confident they will deliver. And when they do, I doubt even yourself will refrain from buying shares once you start seeing the share price moving up. There are few people I have spoken to who would actually not buy shares if they started paying a cash dividend, got financing in order, put a limit on the outstanding share count, and laid out plans for an eventual share buy back in the years to come as discussed in Garrett's post.
As I said towards the end of the day last Friday, the supply seems gone for now. Several buyers today that are very patient but it will take very little buying pressure for MM to pull the string on the ask. Let's hope for loan news of any kind, including the 2-3 new smaller loans that were mentioned.
Emptyone I know my timeline predictions have been off but as I said, management's own predictions have been off too. But what was written about the cash dividend policy details being provided in the Q1 report in a few weeks which is dependent on the Triway loan closing seems logical to me. They would have to have closed the Tri-way loan to provide such details.
In regards to Yap, I have never met or talked to him personally but I have heard he actually brought some good financing deals to the table for SIAF but it was Solomon who wanted "his own" or something along those lines, which is why it has taken so long to get this financing. So unless you know the whole situation I think you should be cautious about how you speak about or judge people.
It hadn't been discussed on ihub but there are two or three other "small" loans the company may get before the big $100M Tri-way loan. So yes assuming they get all loans it will be more than $100M. These other 2 or 3 loans are separate from the big Tri-way loan which as you mentioned and was told to us before contains various conventional loans, stand-by letters of credit etc.
In terms of cash dividend talk, remember the company can always do a "special" dividend should they get a cash infusion from any new CA deals they get, or simply extra cash from CA due to MegaFarm work once the $100M Tri-way loan gets going. RD has also speculated about a potential CA partnership that could include a lump sum cash infusion. I think it would be better to start with a lower reliable cash dividend and pay out special dividends if/when extra cash is on hand.
CANT is trying his best on the ask at .43 to keep the price down.. Selling seems to be over for now. I think we may get a bounce here. Let's see if the company can deliver news next week to follow up a bounce if we get one.
Because Garrett's post is worth repeating for those who missed it:
"My views should not be relied on our considered worthy. But here is my sense
- obtaining financing that will convince all shareholders present and future that capital irrationality and share issuance is over and done
- Hiring the right ceo for triway, this is crucial for shareholders to have confidence looking ahead for what triway will he worth long term
- credibility restored requires at least one year or two of no major management mistakes
-consistent dividend payments paid timely and a gradual increase each year
- forward guidance starting to represent reality and reliability for investors
- liquidity becoming ample for substantial shareholders to come into the stock and know they could get out
- reliable net positive cash flows at siaf to facilitate the ability , in 2 years or 3 to be capable of a sustained highly sophisticated , persistent , durable , program for repurchase of shares and doing this with the right IB over a period of 1-2 years to drive stock price towards doubled audited book value
- financial officers and function that is full time dedicated to investors
- all leading to the only factor that I believe in the long term that can create a platform to drive the stock price to book value and above is gaining institutional investors. Without institutional investors the value of siaf will not likely achieve its full potential
-dividend payments at all times paid to yield 10% + on what the current stock price is so as stock price rises dividend paid equal 10% so in 2 years if stock is 8 then dividend have to increase to 80 cents if stock price is 20 dividends have to be 2$
- institutional investors will not invest until many of the above factors are concrete and demonstrated to be persistently stable and the growth of eps consistently achieving company guidance.
There are many risk elements involved that predictions become quite useless.
The opportunity is as you indicated for VC / PE type multiples on your capital."
This is an insider in the company who owns a major stake as well as influence who has basically laid out everything I want to see that I believe will bring the stock to all time highs over the next few years. I bought more today.
RD sorry to hear. I've jokingly given you a hard time here before because of your emotional swings that are largely based on what the stock price is doing on that given day but you truly provide insightful analysis for this company time after time and I thank you for that. One suggestion I would recommend for all is to simply avoid staring at the stock price on a daily basis. Doing so can provide drastic improvement to your mental health. You can always reach out to me to talk as well.
There is a reason Garrett and others like him have made their wealth and it is because they are able to separate their emotions from their rational thinking. Although this sounds easy in theory, anyone within this stock can understand how difficult this truly is in practice. The fact is this type of emotional control and temperament pays in the long run because so many are unable to do it. I have been VERY wrong about the timing of the loan (I think even management themselves have clearly been wrong about their own estimates) but I am now more confident than before that the loan WILL be closed. (I think very soon but of course could be wrong again so don't attack me empty). We may even hear about the two smaller loans before, who knows.
"Tri-Way continues to work closely with several banks to secure development financing. Negotiations with banks are in advanced stages. While this is taking longer than expected to materialize, we remain confident that, once secured, this will serve not only to boost sale of goods at Tri-Way, but also and most notably, enable SIAF to generate revenue from its Capital Award subsidiary toward or past 2016 levels over time."
Solomon has also finally been convinced to do a quarterly cash dividend this year (likely by Garrett) and save a buyback program for later with the intention as he has said to drive the stock towards doubled audited book value..
The stock is a result of liquidity (more selling than buying) due to poor financing decisions but once they are fixed and confidence is restored through cash dividends everyone will be surprised how fast this stock can move. Those who were around in 2014 know what it was like to have the dilution spigot turned off. Well we are about to finally have it permanently turned off, plus cash dividends which will bring in the institutions and Tri-way dividend next quarter.
Empty I fully agree. I was hopeful someone would be able to influence Solomon away from a buyback program and towards a quarterly cash dividend (which is what will truly bring in institutions and get this stock price moving) and it looks like that has finally happened. Most on this board don't realize how much they should be thanking Garrett for his involvement in the company.
You and Swede just had to ruin the fun and correct them.. I'm not sure if those posting were really stupid enough to believe what they were saying or if they were trying to scare people into getting cheap shares tomorrow. I wasn't going to say anything and was hoping to pick up some more shares on panic selling tomorrow if people actually sold based on their misinterpretation.
New business developement for Triway:
Cash Dividend and Tri-way Dividend Info:
Can you deny that you are in any way related to Sean Mesaros, who violated securities law according to this document and got his license suspended?
https://dfi.wa.gov/documents/securities-orders/S-17-2348-17-TO01.pdf
I remember you were posting before saying that Fredrik was working with Solomon to possibly restructure the loan, or simply get rid of it completely? What was your interpretation on what they were trying to accomplish? Do you have any updates since talking with Fredrik and what kind of involvement he is pushing for?
RD, where on the company website is this posted? I don't understand why information like this isn't properly PR'd. The collateral share information was again referenced but it should be properly PR'd as well.
http://www.sinoagrofood.com/sites/default/files/SIAF_updated_response_Finansavisen.pdf
I agree and the company has been working on a solution to stop any and all dilution once and for all, which will be very meaningful. So if the company comes out very soon and states that they are putting a permanent cap on the outstanding share count, will you then start buying?
My point of the post was to inform shareholders/investors that talk of collateral shares being sold is, pushing down the price, and having to issue more shares is just a narrative relied on by short sellers who want to scare others into selling their shares. But we just found out this is factually not true.
We now know shares have not even been topped-up since September 2017 and collateral shares can't be sold or sold short. On top of that, the company has already paid part of the loan back.
I am not arguing against the financing issues the company has faced by having to rely on equity markets but when they have a debt financing solution in place, the equity market should adjust aggressively.
http://www.newsweb.no/newsweb/search.do?messageId=448264
I think the company should still PR this information that was posted late last week since it is so important but I will post it on iHub for those who haven't yet seen or fully understood. I encourage everyone to read through the whole thing but highlighted points are below:
"Since 30 September 2017 the Company has not issued any additional collateral shares or top-up shares."
"On December 27 2016, two additional loans from non-related third parties were established (the "Additional Loans"). The total loan amount under these two loans constituted USD 10,428, 044. The Additional Loans have been partially repaid and now stands at USD 4,694,829."
"Pursuant to the loan agreements, the lenders shall not sell any shares unless there is an event of default. The loan agreements also stipulates that the lenders are forbidden from borrowing against these shares for short-selling purposes at any time."
"Pursuant to the loan agreements, SIAF has a right to have corresponding shares returned within 3-5 business days at any time, on any amount, of the loans being repaid."
"Due to the continued decline of the value of the Company's shares throughout Q4 2017, the Company resolved in December 2017 to reduce the maximum credit line of the Facility from USD 20 million to USD 15 million as an alternative measure to the issuance of further top-up shares, since it was the Company's view that reduction of the credit line (instead of issuance of additional security shares) would better serve the interests of the Company and its shareholders."
Phoenike is incorrect. Comments about the collateral shares were already set to come out. (http://www.newsweb.no/newsweb/search.do?messageId=448264)
Fredly likely saw this coming and tried to put out his articles. The company will still respond to the articles as well like they said they would before the 10-K. There's only a few days before the 10-K so if not tomorrow, early next week.
How high do you think the stock is going from here? You must think it is going higher if you are still holding onto your shares. And if you don't think it is going much higher then why not sell them?