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Yep. It suffered a technical breakdown. and now finished the week retesting the bottom at 6. Would investors jump in here and buy ? After digesting the news. Maybe we need an infusion of good news soon about the AD trials , or any good news. First to halt further bleeding , and spark a rally. While we wait many months to see
the next major news catalyst give the price a reason to recover. If we see no major news ... what would be a fair value baseline for AVXL price now... 4 dollars? 3 dollars? 5 ? And from that bottom, we might see a long drawn out Range pattern peak at 7.50-8.00 resistance, and retrace back down again.
The way the price has tumbled down... I think we are looking now at a changed chart pattern. The upwave pattern has been broken and we might be watching a Range pattern developing. The plunging drop from 10/9.50 to the 5.88 /6.00 pivot low is being retested now ,to end the week at 6.00. Resistance looks like 6.50-7.00 area, and from there, at overhead resistance, if we see rallies fail there and bounce down... 6.50 could travel down to 4.50 and 4 dollars. The 4's are on the playing field now, in my view. Basic range is 4 to 8 ,, and the other range pattern, IF this 6 dollar area does hold, I'd be watching if the range pattern would climb back to 10 again.
How many months now do we wait for some good news to stop this downwave ?
Same to you my friend. Here's to a breakthrough new year for Anavex. 👍️
I agree Steve, 9.00 is a sensitive target.
We saw the pullback continue today. I think it will retest 9 next week. There's a support shoulder zone from 9.20 to 8.70 to watch and see if it settles down there.
Not sure how many days this pullback will continue... If we would have more bullish momentum starting the next rally, this pullback shouldn't last more than a few more days. I think the latest good news ought to demonstrate a stronger bullish sentiment sooner than normal, instead of seeing 2 weeks sliding sideways.
🤣.... You must be joking.
I've been here since 2013. I was one of the first , and only posters on this forum 10 years ago. I've never heard of you though. But thanks for the good laugh.
Looking at the pullback now... each day offers better clues and vision to make the guesswork more logical. I measure the math from bottoms to tops, look at resistance shoulders and support steps. Maybe also looking at options tables to see those targets, and the timing. These days I feel stronger now about the impact of good news keeping the upwave Pattern developing. But as this large upwave pattern, which started at the 5 dollar bottom in October has so far, reached a major resistance zone around 10.00- 10.40, it's not surprising to see a pullback happening from there and now we are watching it. It could demonstrate that stepping down, bleeding down pattern, bouncing a little, and rolling over and down some more. I bought some at today's 9.44 low. Watching the bounce now, for resistance around 9.80, and watching for the next wave down, another dollar, looking at the steps down to 9.25 area, 9.00 , and 8.75 area. I have small bids in to buy all those target steps.
I don't feel the upwave momentum is broken at all yet, but it's only logical to expect sellers to try and take it down, as AVXL always falls to the lower targets in patterns. But... the good news and new European horizons are coming closer, this pullback is much more dangerous for shorts, and might be last chance for buyers to get bargains.
Looking again at the chart, I'm seeing support zones here around 9 dollars to 8.70, then at 8.40 area. The bullish sentiment could weaken a little if the 8.70 shoulder falls, and 8.50 pivot low falls. But I will be prepared to buy more at those targets and at 8 dollars. And 7.70 target. Small portions along the way.
When 30 dollars came down to 16, I bought more. Thankfully, I was able to buy and sell up and down that Rollercoaster and get the money back to neutralize that trading game. But now to be buying at 8 or 9 dollars, at this time feels to me like last chance before the train becomes a bullet train to Europe. I won't be chasing to buy at 13 or 15 , when I can buy now at 9 and maybe 8.
Sorry for the long post. I'm watching the bounces into resistance and watching the bleed down the target steps to buy more along the way down. 9.75 to 8.75 is my current playing field. 9 dollars is the central magnet to watch currently. and below that, the critical support step targets are 8.75 and 8.50 area. The 8 dollar target is still in play in my view. But too soon to forecast right now. I don't always buy every target step along the way down, but this time I am doing that because 2024 looks like the very bright new day for Europe and all of us.the new day to bypass and break the shackles of the big pharma FDA suppression. Can they stifle Anavex forever, in the face of glaring trial success and vastly superior quality over FDA approved competitors ? We'll see soon enough in the coming year.
Well said, falconer. And considering the successful development , and where it is now, setting up to make the giant leap forward in the coming months, I'm more confident about the October low at 5 dollars being a major cycle reversal point, and since then, this major upwave recovery is looking good, as it broke through the first set of resistance levels, and boosted by good news at the right time, continues upward now, the chart is representing the positive development . This is how the chart should look. Now this rally from the October bottom is an important pattern to keep watching. We might not see bargains to buy shares at 6 or 7 dollars anymore. But old pivot lows a few years ago were seen as bargain
bottoms at 10 and 9 dollars.Price should be looking to develop a support shoulder here at 9.00-10.00 area in this upwave pattern, over the coming weeks. So if we see any pullback now, back into the 8's, it would have to be considered the technical bargain dips to buy. In my view. Any price in the 8's might be best bargain in this very bullish pattern.
Trading and riding the up down Rollercoaster... One good time to buy is at the bottoms. Profit taking a little at wave tops. Excitement for investment is holding steady the core shares, but the trading shares I buy and sell up and down. At this latest major wave pattern, major bottoms to buy was at the 5, 6 and 7 area. Then, with the rally, some traders might have taken some profit at 10 area. I didn't. Then, watching to see what the current pullback would do, the first guess is watching for a shallow pullback. To retest 9.30- 9.00 area and a continued rally upward. So I bought some trading shares in the shallow retrace zone. Now... I discover the pullback gets taken lower, to the next target zone in the 8's. And today I bought some more at these targets, and in the docket waiting for tomorrow, target at 8 dollars. After that, I'll buy more at the target steps 7.75, 7.50, 7.25, 7.00 all the way to 6.50 ... if it goes there.
THEN... upon the next rally back to target 10 again, I will trim what i bought at 9.70,9.25, 9.00 etc, and get that cash back.... and not be over invested. Based on the informed perspective of the knowledgeable people here, it sounds like we could be waiting another 6 months (or longer) for the European approval . That's a lot of Rollercoaster time remaining for traders and price manipulation to keep these big pullbacks going up and down to lowertargets. A bullish recovery pattern for the entire chart with its bottom at 5 dollars, should see pullbacks holding above 7.50 area. Stronger bullish news driven sentiment should have support holding above 8 dollars. The euphoric rally to continue would have held above 9 dollars. So we watch now, to see how low this pullback will be manipulated down, and what my bargain buy targets will be. I'm waiting now for 8 dollars, 7.70, 7.50. and 7. And then, as it resumes the upwave, I'll have some shares to sell at 10 when the time comes.
Good post, I agree with this... and in terms of buying or trading more shares, for investors who want to buy low... we all had a chance to buy at 5, 6, and 7. Now that bargain chance might be gone. This train has left the station. Between now and 6 months... a major pullback to buy might be looking at 9.00 - 8.50 area, and the bigger chart picture is looking upward again , to start developing a base again at the 10 dollar zone, to regain its old "shoulder support" pattern. 9 dollars will be best bargain territory. Suddenly, the chart picture changes with these big moves. And folks will be chasing the rising price now. Shorts must be nervous right now.
The new week begins with price bouncing down from the 9 dollar resistance target, as anticipated.... and I'm watching to see how any pullback goes... 8.70 today, expecting to see some zig zag sideways here testing 9 resistance, testing 8.70- 8.50 area.... and at some point, in a few days, or several days, the good news or no news factor kicks in , as the year runs out of time. No news could generate a collapsing slam down back to retest 6 dollars again... and good news could propel the next big rally to test 12,13, 15, 18, etc.... we're sitting on the fence biting nails here. Technically, I'm still seeing 7.50 to 5.50 as bargain zone. And have to consider 13 to 20 as profit taking zone for some trading shares. Though I really want to just buy and hold. I trust Anavex. I don't trust the corrupt big pharma and the FDA.
Decent follow through today...
Heading towards 9 dollars. Resistance levels there are waiting to show how strong they might be. The 8.25 resistance lasted a week or so. The shoulder support zone on this whole rally from the 5 dollar bottom is around 6.80-7.50. A technical retrace from 9 back to 7 area can be considered normal (50%)... and if we don't hear any promised good news by year end, the retrace targets down there are a good possibility.
You're very welcome, found_it... Glad you found it helpful.🙂
Price action makes a decent support hold today and a good looking bounce. Upward,through the resistance zone around 8.00-8.25, not completely out of the woods yet, but upward is not downward. Recent days have seen the price sliding sideways and shallow pullback, which looks like an Elliott wave 4, today could be the start of the rally Wave 5. I'd be watching next for testing resistance targets around 9.25 area as the next 1 dollar move... examining the pattern so far, from a major bottom at 5 dollars... demonstrated support pivots at the right places on its way to test the 8 dollar resistance zone. And in the latest sideways slide, held support at 7.70/7.80/7.90 area and now breaks upward to 8.30. This upward move today looks positive to me. A major pullback would have been retesting 7 dollars, even lower. But it held a shallow (wave 4) pullback. So, I'm calling today's rally bullish , and watching for follow up momentum next. Let's see what the next few days look like.
9 years ago, the stock closed at 18 cents.
Falconer... your sarcasm is getting better. 👍️
Thanks for that info, meds4life...
I've never taken Flomax.
Same to you, Steve. Good luck with everything. I need cataract repair as well. Everyone says how easy it is, but I've always had a strange phobia about my eyes .I have to overcome.
When I said guessing, I mean educated guessing. Not blind guessing. Right now, we can see the rally wave has reached and peaked at the 8.00-8.30 target area. Pausing here and sliding sideways around 8 dollars is a predictable part of the pattern to anticipate. Watching now the overhead resistance, how strong or weak it will be next. If resistance is strong here, we could see it generate the pullback to support targets. This is all I need to watch right now.
Riding the chart Rollercoaster... looking at targets, to buy pullbacks... patterns develop sometimes... good guesses are possible to catch bottoms and pivot lows to buy... watching target peaks that might generate a larger pullback, for the next bargain to buy. Riding the Rollercoaster.
You can see the pivot reversal at major bottom, 5 dollars... began the current rally upwave , a nice technical climb, with measurable math target zones getting hit. The chart still develops along classic patterns, like head and shoulder zones, for resistance and support. Now, as the price rises from 5.00 thru 6,7, and reaches 8 target resistance area... and looking at the support shoulders and steps, in the pattern, I'm watching for shallow pullback 1 dollar to 7.30/7.40 area,a pivot target zone. But stronger pullback is looking at 7.00/6.75 area. AVXL as you know, is easily manipulated down by shorts, so there is a possible 2 dollar down target at 6.35 area... but since the entire bargain zone can be anything below 8 dollars... it's really just a matter of guessing at best bargain pullbacks to buy. My next bids are set at the 6.80 target zone. I caught the 5.00 bottom, and then 6.20 pivot low in this rally pattern. I have a few trading shares to sell around 10,11, and 12 area. Wishing Good trading and investing to all.
Looks like it has a chance to get there now...
The bottom at 5.00 looks pretty good. A steady upward pattern developing correctly to call bullish, so far. The technical math pattern I like to see has this target zone achieved now ( 7.00-7.50 area) and support steps along the way have held well, so far. It's been a decent recovery from 5 dollars, so far. And looks like a turnaround from a good bottom.
I'm watching for a pullback at this 7.50 level, but maybe we won't get it until it hits the 8 target. Support shelf now looks like the 6.40-6.20 area.in my view. As a trader/investor, my interest was to buy the bottom, and watch it hold. Then buy the pivot lows close to 6, as it climbs to retest 8. So far, so good. Probably the accumulation buy zone is anything below 8, .... so the chance to buy at 5 and 6 is looking like it was a pretty good bargain . 5 might be gone now. unless the stock market crashes.
I think that's a good pullback target to watch. Today continued the pullback which began at the 6.50 top. Dumped down this morning from the 6.20 shoulder resistance, to bounce at 5.87... now has resistance around 6 dollars to deal with. The pullback is looking poised now to drop another 50 cents and if it doesn't hold 5.50, we might be seeing the rally pattern disolve once again. . These current support levels at 5.75,5.65, 5.50 area are important now, for any upwave pattern to sustain. To me, when these rally patterns get dissolved, It means an entire month of bullish potential is erased. And that's how months go by, more broken patterns, and more months pass by with no upward movement. If we are waiting on a good news cycle that should propel a big upwave, then these little rally patterns we now see, should hold support and rally higher. Time is running out for the shorts. The time for price recovery should be starting now. If it doesn't... then it suggests the charting methods might not be working like they used to. And that the market is a manipulation game by the big money players who control it. And price will do whatever they want it to do. Right now, we have a bottom at 5 dollars, and a critical support zone around 5.50 -5.70 waiting to be tested.
Yes,not too shabby... a 1 dollar climb from the last pivot low at 5.50. The bottom low started the turnaround at the 5 dollar base. We're seeing that upwave pattern of higher lows and higher highs ,the way it's supposed to look. 3 subwaves so far.
EWave would be watching for one more upwave, maybe to the 7.00 - 7.30 area would be my guess. Higher lows would now look for support around 5.75 area. 5.50 still in play.
On the chart picture, the rally wave began from the pivot low of last week, 5.47/5.50 and now sits around the 6.20 resistance, so it's been a 75 cent move so far. The 2 pivot lows that might mark a bottom is 4.90/5.00 low. And then held support at the 5.20 step and now at the 5.50 step.This is the "bullish looking" pattern we needed to see happen. So far, so good... but we're still at the 6.20 resistance zone , and shorty needs to sell it down hard if he doesn't want the rally to climb another dollar, target 7.10- 7.25 area. A strong sell by shorts would achieve that success breaking down the bullish pattern if they can bleed the price back down a dollar, target 5.20 again.and even retest 5.00 again. Right now, with today's rally and yesterday's support holding 5.50... the short term pattern climbing, looks bullish for continued rally to try for the 7 dollar target.
...which also means, for confident investors, as we approach a nearby news cycle and a coming news year.... any major pullback on the price wave, should be seen as a good buying opportunity. Maybe as soon as the next step down, testing the 5.50 - 5.25 area. If not today's low.
If the company's next move is to present good news in the coming weeks.... the price action game becomes watching the current downwave as a buying opportunity. It could become the last chance to buy this 5 dollar bottom area. If good news is compelling enough, we should see an upwave recover to 10 dollars and higher, and never see 5 dollars again.
Looks to me like the upward movement on the chart over the past week or two, showing us a bottoming at 5 dollars, looks ok , so far, and then the next support steps developed ok at 5.35, 5.50 area. That's the support target I want to see hold well now.but the rally wave looks positive, holding support where it needed to, and climbing higher. A sense of momentum intending to climb higher,at the key moments when sell off was anticipated. This happened today, yesterday, and last week. Upward pattern targets for me are 6.20/ 7.20/ 8.20... if the 5.50 support holds. The 5 dollar bottom looks good so far.
OM, ... I've always been interested in studying patterns, and I like some, there's a lot of pattern systems, and people who have made a name for themselves. I've found some of the systems user friendly and I focus on those 3 or 4 that I combine together and it works ok for me. I think following the system 'rules' very strictly can be a mistake .there's an important place for one's own intuitive vision with experience, to feel and sense what a pattern is doing. Combining the news timing is important... but... as we often see what happens to AVXL when good news comes out... the sellers take it down. It's all a strange guessing game sometimes. Watching the bottoms form is all I've focused on this past year or two. It was 10 for a while, then 9, 8. 7, and here we are now at 5. I see 4 is a target waiting. Right now, I'm watching to see if 5 dollars holds as a bottom. It's still in play.
Seeing the forest. That sounds right.
Buying the bottoms these days. I buy very small pieces. Bought at 7,6,5 now, next bids around 4.20. If the science and results are good, and the market manipulation takes the price lower , there's only 2 choices to consider... either the company and the science is failing, or its a great buying opportunity. At 7,6,5,4,3,2... wherever it bottoms. But me personally, small amounts at a time. I'll dance down the steps with it.. BUT... I will also take profit at technical tops for trading
shares, when the time comes .
All there is to do for the last several weeks, has been to watch share price bleed down and tumble down the steps , to various target points... watching the little bounces into resistance targets, and roll over down the steps. 10 becomes 9, 8, 7, now 6, and now 5.60 heading to 5.50, 5.25 is a target... then why not test 5 dollars.
The old greater long term pattern was centered around , a back and forth range 2 dollars to 4 dollars, roughly... then the breakout went to 5 and 6, and New patterns. You can see on the old chart, the pivot point targets in the 5.00 to 6.50 area. That's our current playing field. But below 5 dollars becomes a puzzle for me because it sends the price back into the old pattern, and any progress in a stock pattern should not revisit such an old bottom zone, and this, without a market crash ??? ... it's not right. So maybe wall street can short AVXL down to 5, and 4.88 was a magical target back then..... but beyond this, there's not much else to observe about Price revisiting major bottom zones.
In a bullish upward long term pattern.... AVXL technically woulda/should held support at 10, like it did for a year, then at 9 , and 8 dollars as the bullish bottom, for the upward pattern to maintain it's integrity. But now, that pattern is broken down. And watching it bleed from 8, 7, 6.... seems like market manipulation to me. Nothing we can do about it. I bought a little at 8, at 7 and 6. Next small bid is at 5.25 and 5. Have a nice day. 🙃
Earliest investors who bought at 70 or 80 cents, in 2015. and later at 1.25,1.75, 2 dollars are doing fine. But people who started investing at 10 and 16, and 9,8,7, are currently down. Big gains have dissolved, and recovered and dissolved again 4 or 5 times for me. Since 2010.
Hey..... Are there any AVXL investors still in the.... Millionaire's Club? 😏
Me too. Totally agree. Pick a target. Buy the trading shares. Sell the rallies. repeat. 7 was a fair price to buy some... now 6.20 was the target. Got some today. Where's resistance now... and down some more... not sure yet where I'll place my next bids. 5.55 maybe. Small bids, like frosting on the cake. Profit targets... gee whiz... doubles at 12, 13, 14. Swing pattern trades like that will probably have to be news driven now. Resistance steps all the way now every dollar.... 7, 8, 9, 10. Tradable waves to make a few hundred bucks for the effort. I like longer term swing patterns better.
AVXL testing 6.75. Are we looking for possible steps, 6.50 And ... 6.25?
I keep lowering my bids in the docket. I remember in past patterns, when for the longest time... the " bottom" was holding around 10 dollars. Until it dropped into the 9's. Then the next pattern hit the 8's, and then bottoms hit 7's and bottomed at 6.85..... now we're retesting 6.80, and not acting like it wants to hold 6.75. I'm thinking it's looking down more steps.
Markets drop today but so does gold and silver. Are the metals being bled down ? My gold chart is looking at 1800 for a possible target. Silver at 21?
I'm keeping one eye on the SPX chart....
4500-4400 , shoulder zone, could it become the Wiley coyote cliff edge some day? The whole stock market seems a bit unreal to me in recent years. I still think it's controlled by the government, maybe not so much by corrupt Wall Street as it used to be, but more by the White hat Military government. We live in changed times. There's a hidden War going on, and within the government, conspiracy theories and conspiracy realities, .... what would the next
" stock market crash" look like in this climate. The nation, in my view, is under Military Occupation now, but they're keeping it quiet and making it look normal. How does one analyze stocks in this matrix ? I'm thinking if we ever do see something that looks like a crash.... it will be fast and will bounce right back up , like March 2020 did.
FWIW... I'm not very interested in spikes up that sell right back down... it's like it never happened, unless it comes from great news, it's probably trading bots, . What I want to see now, is some indication that the "bottom" is in at 6.80 and support is holding around 7.10 - 7.20.... that's all I need to see for now. Then, step by step, higher highs and higher lows, heading to test 8, 9, 10.
Watching for a more steady climbing pattern . And it could surge 70 cents, maybe make 1 dollar waves along the way, .... but a visible pattern, with shoulder zones, and predictable target points. 7.80 is the next one to overcome.
So today, price opened holding the support step around 7.07 and crawled up a little , then surged up 75 cents around the noontime hour, only to sell right back down, and crawls around 7.20 for the day. Seems like there is a lot of price surging and selling these days, that makes a mark on the chart but doesn't amount to any real pattern development. My take on this week's price development is a bottom at 6.81.... followed so far by a bounce that has held support, so far, at 7.10 area, right where it needs to, and the spike to 7.90 , is incidental to be dismissed. Support is holding for 2 days at the moment. Where is real resistance to watch... maybe around 7.50 area?
I always liked using the Williams indicator.
Price dropped down 2 steps this morning to hit 6.81 and bounced a step back up. I bought a little more here. Will be watching now. We have hit the double bottom on the extreme low now retesting 6.85. How long ago was that first one . It rallied back to 13 , I believe. I used to have about 5 thousand trading shares... sold most in recent wave patterns of the last 3 years. I've rebought about 1500 now. Small trading. If price drops to hit 6.50, maybe I'll buy a few more shares again.
The sellers have no trouble selling AVXL down. Today, 70 cents, and it could drop another few steps for Tuesday. I'll buy a little more at 7.
Last week, upon the good news, I changed my bids from 7.35, when price was around 8, I decided to buy at 7.70... I wasn't patient enough to keep waiting for my target. Today , we see AVXL tumbling to the bottom of the bottom zone.
Past lows bottomed around 6.85, 6.90. Where's the good news bounce? Are investors misunderstanding the news?
And now after today's puking barf to retest the 7.55 step...failing at 8.00 resistance, then failing at my key 7.80 step, the day was a sell down below any short time frame support. The picture ended the week looking down. Resting on the range floor. Not ready to begin the rally climb I guess... what do you think... why wouldn't investors add more shares here at the bottom zone. I bought some more today around 7.65. Trading shares. This week and recent weeks, watching price wallow along this bottom zone.... still not ready to get off the floor. What else can we say. Even after good news... it falls and stumbles back to the floor. The basic trade for a double looks like 7.50 to 15. I might start taking some profit at 10 12 13 area if it looks weak when it gets there. Like the last range peaks, around 12. It's been a trading pattern for 2 years in this range.Hard to evaluate the good news and the timing for the next rally. Buying this bottom zone is simple enough here, but where to take profit will be the tricky part.