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on the good side
at least we have not broken through the 52 week low yet (26 cents). Once you start making 52 week lows, you end up with capitulation selling. Not a good thing. Gotta hold 26 cents.
JFF7
Congrats Bobby...you have now been fully anointed as a PTQ shareholder. Expect more of the same going forward. You can make money on this one but only if you take profits while you can (while everyone is looking forward to the next success because that success never comes to fruition).
JFF7
40,000 ounces production for 2014?....jeepers...the bar keeps getting lower and lower...do they really think they can make their target this time? Good grief, they never have in the past.
Yeah, it's funny how Fifer promotes himself on the web with all those sites. Most Business men let their company track record speak for them but with PTQ I guess he doesn't like the message of failure that is sending.
I am not surprised he is selling "picks and shovels" to the workers to make a bundle. That's how the guys made the real money in the gold rush days.
It's going to be interesting to see how 40,000 ounces of production is pays for the mine development in Spain / Portugal. I can smell another round of dilution coming ...once the floodgates are opened, it's just too easy to go back to the well.
I sure hope FQM is able to make a go of the mine. If they falter and Panama steps in to take the concession away, Panama's name will be mud in the mining world and who knows if the mine ever gets built.
JMO,
JFF7
this is not a jewel....its a lump of coal.
JFF7
share price says it all.
JFF7
Once it matures, I really think BB10 can be a great OS for higher end users (the gesture interface is too much of a learning curves for the masses. They get confused and frustrated before they learn it.). BB10 is just now getting things likes headless apps and allows the customization that the more mature platforms have had for a while.
If you think about BB10 is only a year old in a month. It has come a long way in that time and just keeps getting better. If we ever get to more vertical industries with machine to machine integration utilizing smartphones, I think BB10 will really shine.
But they have to survive until then. Working on partnerships with players in these other industries (besides the cars) is very important going forward in my opinion. I hope they hire the right guy to head up that business segment.
When the get BES sales going, have stopped the bleeding on the handset side, and have new partnerships going in the machine to machine segment then I will consider the company to be very good investment candidate. Until then it is just a great trader with so much volatility.
JFF7
There are a lot of people that made a lot of money shorting this all the way down. If they were smart enough to be out before the earning call...the recent 30% jump off the bottom would make this an attractive short to them again.
Also, although I saw 5-6 analysts report today, I didn't see many if any of the big houses. Like I said I think they like to save their down grades for when the shorts are ready to hit it. Usually a run will last 2-3 days and then it's open season.
The free BES trials finish this month. Next month you should see Blackberry announcing closing deals (if the customer permits it). If BBRY wants to keep moving up, that's the next piece of news they have to put out.
Remember that one analyst that said BBRY was worth 20 dollars just on BES fees if they cornered that market. Doesn't look like they have that market wrapped up even though they have the best product by far. Gartner and others sent out enough bad press releases on BBRY warning customers that Blackberry might be going out of business that lots of businesses delayed making a purchase decision and are seriously considering less robust platform solutions.
Strong BES 10 sales and related ongoing revenue streams are really needed by BBRY soon to keep this rally going past 8 or 9 dollars. There may be more upside (from a valuation perspective) before they have to show those deals to advance further. It depends on when the shorts play their hand.
JMO, JFF7
Most of the short analysts cannot update their ratings and target price until the share price stops rising and the shorters can move in. This is precisely their timing so they can issue their opinions at the same time the shorting begins and then they ca say...look the market agrees with my opinion...it happens time and time again.
If it loses steam going into the close today, looks for the analyst updated reports to come out tonight or tomorrow morning.
JFF7
nice trade.
JFF7
Thats like 7 articles on SeekingAlpha on BBRY posted today.
Half good and half bad.
But market still likes it. Benefiting from the lack of other tech stocks that have not already moved up 80-100 % in the last year....fast money continues to move in. Not necessarily smart money , just lots of it looking for a temporary home.
JFF7
The boys on Seeking Alpha are taking their shots at Blackberry. Where are the analysts? I suspect they are a little more professional and are just waiting to see if there is any follow through from the longs before they effectively use their sharpened opinions.
JFF7
Not sure we are going to get the slap down from analysts on Monday. Two. Evercore and MKM Partners, have already raised their price targets (not by much though). What a crazy market....they post a 4.4 billion dollar loss and the market responds with a 15% increase in share price.
will be watching Monday to see how this unfolds.
JFF7
I think that was a smart decision. Hope you got out at 50+ cents.
JFF7
Fair enough Styl,
I know Chen has said that BBRY is not for sale so I will take his word for it over an analyst like Wang. Having said that I would agree that Chen is open to a lot of options to get BBRY back on track. Partial sale is probably one of them but I would think he has a lot of other options he will try to to go through first.
JFF7
well if it is something better than a financing deal, then that's good.
I didn't realize FQM needed PTQ's approval to change the start date on the mine.
JFF7
they were working on getting financing to pay off DB and other suppliers and then the FQM deal became the center of attention. It is entirely possible that they went back to trying to find a financing deal.
JFF7
taking the write down is something they had to do to reflect the true value of their business.
The strength of the share price in the market continues. This means there may be more to this rise than just short covering and day traders. Maybe the market is seeing some long term value in what Chen is proposing. I'm watching closely to see what damage the analysts and media can do.
More like a 15-18 months till Chen says profitability is reached. I think Chen is smart enough to set the bar low so he can more easily succeed.
Chen said nothing about selling the company. That is certainly not his intention. But he has effectively started down the road of getting out of the hardware business by signing this deal with Foxconn. This is a smart move on his part since it takes a company like Foxconn to make money off the hardware side of things.
The burn rate will be dropping very quickly. From reducing staff but from other things as well. One big one is the licensing costs they pay each quarter (about 500 million). These were based on doing much higher volume sales. These have been renegotiated and the savings are probably about 250 million a quarter. Chen knows he has to get his cost structure in order and is taking the steps needed to do this. As much as the shorts would like you to think Blackberry is going out of business, the balance sheet and steps being take clearly indicate this is not so. I think that is what the market is starting to see and value into to the share price.
JFF7
this is what Chen said about returning to profitability.
"You know, all that combined, this will tie to our ability to become cash flow positive and profitable. And so you should be looking at it towards the end of fiscal year ’15, sometime early in fiscal year ’16 as our targeted date for that to become hopefully a positive number, but at least not a negative number."
This doesn't mean that they will bleed as badly as this quarter for all the quarters until they return to profitability. They have the cash to sustain themselves until then. They are reducing their operating expenses by 50% by Q1 Fiscal 2015 (ending May, 2014).
Foxconn provides a shield from Blackberry taking any more huge inventory losses. Yes there might be some more inventory losses but no where near the ones they have had to take. Its a joint manufacturing agreement where Foxconn gets paid for their costs and enough to make a reasonable profit. If business is really good then Foxconn gets to share in the margins. Incentive for everyone. The important part is that financial risk for BBRY is reduced and this provides BBRY a way to compete in the low cost end of the market (something they were badly needing).
Yes Chen is not promising the moon but he does feel they have a number of strengths that will give them a good shot at it and he has a strategy for moving forward.
Today was a bunch of nervous short covering and a bunch of opportunistic traders like myself. Buried in there also there is probably some early believers in the company turning the corner (too early for me though).
No doubt the likes of regular critical analysts will have their knives sharpened and will come out Monday with their updated opinions on why the sky is falling. Fortunately there is more to the market than just them.
If it is just a financing deal, I don't think that will do much for the share price. Not with POG hovering around 1200. Quite frankly, the only thing I see helping the share price in the immediate future was a deal with FQM. If that is off the table then I guess we are stuck in this for quite a while longer (will POG ever go up?).
JFF7
I also think I will let things settle. Took my profits from traidng today and I think I would like to buy a long position but I want to see how the market reacts after they digest what was said. I also want to see how much the analysts and media are going to beat on them.
JFF7
their operating loss was only (did I just say "only"..lol) about 67 cents a share. Most of the 4 billion was non cash write downs.
They are working hard to reduce their operating expenses by 50% and they have the cash to survive until that is accomplished.
JFF7
"from what i gather, BBM is being offered for free with the intent of monetizing down the road. "
absolutely...and no monetization efforts for at least a couple of quarters. Build the base and numbers and then monetize it. Exactly what other IT companies are doing ...
Sounds like they are going to beef up the Enterpise BBM experience first.
JFF7
near as I can tell this is a relief rally / short squeeze.
The deal with Foxconn means they have eliminated much of the downside from having to right off inventory. This is the deal that will allow them to compete in the low end side of the market and keep a broad base which they can maybe later monetize through the services side.
Bottomline, any sudden death of Blackberry has been taken off the table. A low bleed is still possible but they are open to a lot of different changes as a way to turn the company profitable again.
This concept of bringing the Blackberry experience to Android and IOS has thrown me for a loop. I think they mean the Blackberry balance / security to those platforms but I really don't know. Looking for more clarification.
JFF7
its certainly nice to see. Been a long time since BBRY has a reaction like this to a conference call.
JFF7
to maximize the money made shorting it after earnings results.
JFF7
AUN.v
in the end maybe it is a good thing to close Shater. Nothing but trouble with that mine.
AUN has been one ugly ride. I was out at 90 cents (before the reverse split) but still lost money on it. Only so much pain I am willing to take for owning a stock. Ugly for anyone that has held.
JFF7
Blackberry will have another tough qtr to report...the market expects more bad quarters....it's all about the action plan and guidance though...
JFF7
FQM is not foreclosing on PTQ as long as they are getting their money (and they are). Now that PTQ has their equipment back up to speed that should continue. Other suppliers, who knows.
JFF7
the share price was holding 40 in the hopes that something would happen deal-wise before Xmas. As hope of that faded, the share price continued to slip. Now that FQM has had their meeting and it is pretty clear that there is no deal until the new year (if one is happening at all). The share price should return to the 30 cent area and could be lower if POG continues to fall and breaks 1200.
JFF7
Thanks for your post. Joke of the day....how apropos. Keep posting, your providing a lot of comic relief in an otherwise boring waiting period.
JFF7
that's an easy one. If I had shares i was underwater on now, i would sell them and buy back on the pullback on the 20 or 21st depending on how long the spike down lasts. Quarter results are going to be bad. (and I like Blackberry).
JFF7
"Back to sleep, wake me up two years from now. "
Your being overly optimistic aren't you?
JFF7
BBRY has to get through at least one more bad quarterly report (dec 20th). Then we'll see what management has to say about the hardware business going forward. That will add more clarity about when to get into this stock for a rebound.
They will still have at least a bad 4th qtr to report but management can provide visibility of how they will stop the losses going forward, that may be enough for it to start a move up. I also believe it is very undervalued here if they can succeed with BES 10 and monetize BBM going forward at the same time as minimizing the hardware losses.
JFF7
hell of a job GHMM. Your in the sweet spot, successfully picking and timely trading of highly volatile stocks. It doesn't get any better than that.
JFF7
i wasn't buying at 19, I was simply saying they had been bought out at 19.
Sorry for the confusion. It was a hasty post.
JFF7
MMT.V
Judging by the video, the increase through AGIP may be very close. The divy announcement last year was in November, I believe, so it could happen anytime soon (although I agree usual schedule would be for early December announcement).
They are losing 24-25% oil (small diff from 28). I think they would increase production even with the sieve simply to ensure they can keep paying the divy and do the drilling they want to do. It's not like they think they are short of oil in the ground.
All that said I took some minor profits today (good practice after a 20%+ gain over two days)
JFF7
probably...tax loss selling still to be had this year so more downside exists. I wish more corporations would decide on BES 10 or not as that will determine whether they start to rebound. Monetizing BBM would also put in a bottom. Providing access to broader range of Android apps (10.2.1) is a real good start on the app front but they still need to work out something for Google Services.
JFF7
yes it's a terrible thing collecting a 18% divy and to hold a ticket for a chance at a double in the next year.
JFF7
"I am all about accountability."....boy are you in the wrong place.
no volume at all really as people await the poor quarterly results that are anticipated and then I expect buyers will step in on any pullback with expectations that there will be some deal / news when FM brings out the mine plan with hopefully some PTQ related news.
JFF7
CEN.TO bought at $19
JFF7