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Where do you get these figures, and what MHz do they refer to
The EE Opteron is 30W at 1.4Ghz (full speed for this part). This part is available now. They have not yet introduced the equivalent mobile part, but I'm sure it is out there.
There is also a HE Opteron which is 55W at full speed of 2.0Ghz.
edit: I see Pete has posted some numbers for the mobile parts. Specs look even better than these.
It sure looks to me that AMD has bounced off the 30 day MA. I think we'll see a strong close and strength starting next week. Investors are going to start looking past Q2 soon and will want to be in for an end of the year runup due to prospects of a great Q4 earnings. I think AMD is set to earn close to a dollar a share this year. My guess is
Q1 $.12
Q2 $.13
Q3 $.25
Q4 $.45
-6.5% so far on the best earnings surprise they've had in the last few years.
Yeah no kidding!
Earnings History Jun 2003 Sep 2003 Dec 2003 Mar 2004
EPS Est -0.54 -0.36 0.04 0.04
EPS Actual -0.40 -0.09 0.12 0.12
Difference 0.14 0.27 0.08 0.08
Surprise % 25.9% 75.0% 200.0% 200.0%
Account receivable increase = revenue increase.
AMD stuff the channel.
This theory only makes sense if AMD was trying to meet guidance or expectations. They beat both of these easily, so why would they want to stuff the channel? They wouldn't. The answer is they deferred some sales into Q2 to make Q2 look better. Even more reason the stock should be UP!
Someone is trying to unload.
That is an understatement!!! I also think the short-termers are getting out as summertime is typically a poor time to hold AMD.
I'm going to ride it out until at least Q4, although today is still painful to watch. I think we'll see a bounce (today), but the question is from where. 20 day MA at $16.30. 30 day MA at $15.80.
RTQ under 17 - I can't believe my eye's. Really really
disappointing.
I guess this is a typical AMD selloff after the earnings report. It will pass, but I'll have to kiss my April calls goodbye.
The analysts will maybe get it by Q4, well after the rest of us.
Do you guys think we may visit $18 this week?
I hate to even try to guess given this is options expiration week. I think earnings may have been strong enough to overcome this. The problem is news like this takes weeks to digest.
I'm still sitting on some April $17 calls. It's roulette time!
As a plus there are 2 trading days instead of 1. AMD usually reports on thursday.
I'll guess anyway. I think we'll test the recent high of around $18.5 sometime in the next 2 days. I may chicken out and sell the calls if we hit $18.
Q2 03 467M
Q3 03 692M
Q4 03 698M
Q1 04 693M
AMD is doing a great job managing inventory. It used to be a mess, but those days appear to be over. I think Hector had something to do with this. Increased inventory going into Q2 is going to spell disaster for Intel. This is not the quarter you want to go into with extra parts to unload. These may end up getting dumped somewhere overseas, hopefully in the celeron market as to not affect AMD.
I'm quite impressed with the earnings report, especially the increased ASPs and GM. It really is a new AMD. Everything is in line for a blowout year.
I'm still holding and I have no plans of selling anytime soon. I even decided to hold my trading shares which I had planned on selling today. I'm glad I did.
Good luck to all - I may not be posting as much as I've hit some busy times. See you on the other side of $50.
I was supposed to write a program to automatically scan charts
for flags and pennants
I would find this tremendously useful. I time a lot of my buys and sells based on patterns like this and other TA.
Looks like AMD just filled the gap from a few days ago, which was a very likely event from a technical standpoint. It should settle out here for a bit and then have a rebound up and be able to continue on the run.
Doug - no need to respond. We know you don't believe in TA voodoo and gaps, so I'll just make your argument for you to alert everyone on the board that this post is pure hogwash.
does AMD sell to Samsung?
I'm pretty sure they do. Samsung has a great phone lineup these days. Nokia phones just don't seem that exciting to me anymore.
This should work as long as you're sure we won't get blind sided by MUCH better the expected earnings report.
I think there is a good possibility of this, but I think I'm going to sell my trading shares before earnings anyway. Even with blowout earnings, there has almost always been an opportunity to buy after the news. Q2 and part of Q3 have traditionally been a drag on the stock.
HM, so I guess the game plan can be to unload 50% of position by earning day
My plan is to unload my trading shares and options, which are about 25% of my position, just before Q1 earnings. On any pullbacks throughout Q2 and Q3 I'll write puts to reaccumulate shares or collect cash.
I'm not touching any of my long term shares. I don't plan on selling those for quite some time so daily or even weekly fluctuations are not a concern.
The only thing that would change my strategy at this point would be a major AMD botch up, which is possible with the 90nm transition still ahead.
I think you meant to say "supply-constrained,"
Yeah. lol. Thanks.
We have a 3 year window of opportunity before Intel can replace Netburst? That sounds too good to be true!
That was also my reaction. I'm sure Intel will limp along with something competitive enough to maintain their margins, but this is still very good news for AMD. Too bad their next fab won't be online for a couple of years. AMD could be demand constrained until then, but that would help ASPs. I suspect we'll see some help from IBM for manufacturing lower end parts.
8 million processors a quarter at $100+ ASP would be fabulous, and that seems to be where AMD is headed. They could make close to a $1 per share per quarter just on processors in this scenario. If flash has a turnaround that coincides, look out!
I may have just convinced myself to hold onto my stock for even longer. My oldest shares are over 2 years old already.
Just a small bit of TA
Thanks for that post. It was quite interesting. I like the equal movement part. I tend to agree that AMD moves in bursts, and I think this is the start of both a short and long term burst. Short term I see a runup into earnings, followed by a slight pullback through a slow Q2. In Q3 and Q4 I think we'll see the real fireworks.
My prediction is around $20 by earnings and over $40 by the end of the year.
I think we see speculation and let ride this wave up. I think $19 is possible.
$19 would be nice before earnings. I have some April $17 calls I long ago wrote off as a loss in my head, but they are breathing again. In fact I am back to breakeven on them. These were gamble calls anyway, so I'm going to let them ride.
AMD has definitely broken out of the pattern it was locked in for 3 months, and it did it to the upside. Technically this is a very good sign.
You don't think this is just tape painting by someone who has AMD in their portfolio and thinks a good close today would pretty up their quarterly report?
I think we'll see continued strength into the earnings date, so no I don't believe the tape painting theory.
I see volume is not above average.
I was noticing a lot more large block trades than usual, at least early on in the day.
We'll see if I'm right or not, but I still suspect a runup has begun.
It sure looks to me like something is up with the stock. It is diverging from the pack and volume patterns are unusual. Generally when this happens around the end of the quarter, it is good news. I really think this is the start of a rally.
Wow! Nice turnaround and finish today!
Yes the volume pickup looks promising. This could just be the trigger needed to start the next run and a short squeeze.
That must be why none of the big names in gaming are targeting the AMD64 platform for their latest showcase games.
I don't think we'll see any exclusive 64-bit games anytime soon, but AMD64 will become the platform of choice for best performance with the most features enabled. Game developers still push the bleeding edge. They just make sure they have modes to run on older hardware so they can sell as many games as possible. It is in their best interest to make a port to AMD64 as they'll be able to make demonstrations of their new games with the most features enabled.
Game development starting now for games to be released in 2 or 3 years might even move to being 64-bit exclusive now that developers know Intel is going to back it. This is good news for AMD as it means developers will be buying Athlon64 and Opteron machines now. Epic, the developer of the Unreal Tournament games, has already stated their intent to do this.
Actually short interest has gone up a bit to over 43.7 now.
Thanks for that link. The last time short interest was this high was July 15th when the stock was around $7.50. Look at what happened right after that. A nice big run up.
It really seems to me like the stock is poised for a nice run up that will be strengthened by a short squeeze.
synopsys eda tools which support opteron:
Pretty impressive list there. This combined with Mentor's Calibre announcement you posted yesterday should make Opteron the platform to have for chip design.
I wonder what platforms Intel is using to develop their next generation chips. Itanium and Xeon running Linux? I'm almost certain AMD is using exclusively Opterons and Athlons running Linux. I think an AMD exec even stated that future AMD processors would be developed entirely on AMD hardware.
Anyone else following EDA developments? How does Itanium porting stand up to Opteron porting?
AMD stock seems to be stuck in a trading range of $14-$16. If we could just get some volume to punch through $16, I think we'll see the start of another long runup. I'm thinking around $19-20 before Q1 earnings announcement, but only if it can break out of this 3 1/2 month range.
After couple years of writing down losses from AMD, Im back on board in big way
I think now is the probably best time in AMD's history to be on board. It really seems like everything is aligning and it is only a matter of time before profits and stock gains follow. Welcome back.
I wonder what exactly it is in the Opteron that prevents it from being able to run these OS'es... I mean besides the lack of a port, that is... :)
Bingo, but HP could port HPUX in a nanosecond.
Bad joke, sorry.
AMD marketing cut the AMDme crap, start buying out centerfold ads in IT magazines and start yelling 64bit ready, or 64bit compliant, with Xeon's next to them as "OBSOLETE" or "non-64 bit ready/compliant".
To do this before 90nm is completely ready would be foolish. They are still shipping 5+ million non-64-bit Athlon XPs per quarter, and they need to keep shipping them until 90nm Athlon 64 can take over. So I agree with you, but not yet.
hy you think it's any harder to update a section of the processor that was designed from the get-go to be updated, as opposed to a discrete hub that has to be updated, too, is unclear to me.
I think it is maybe worse to have a separate hub as they would have to qualify another interface, qualify another chip, and create a more complex motherboard layout. The only place a hub would have a benefit is if the memory technologies were not backwards compatible. The transition from one type of memory to the next would be made easier as they wouldn't have to worry about managing the inventory of 2 incompatible CPUs. They would only have to manage the availability of the hub to match the demand for the various memory technologies. But since DDRII is backwards compatible with DDRI, they could just start making chips that support DDRII and be done, so the memory hub advantage does not apply.
Another thing I can think of is the memory hub can be done on a simpler technology, instead of the complex CPU technology. The benefit here is it takes about 12 weeks from wafer start to finished production for a CPU, but a memory hub chip would have a much shorter turnaround time. 12 weeks is a long time to wait for a potential bug fix to the memory interface.
I agree with the rest of you that AMD can easily make changes to the on die memory controller as long as they have the resources to do so. They used to be able to leave most of this work to 3rd parties like Via and Nvidia, and now it all has to be in house. Has AMD invested enough in this area to ensure they are pursuing DDRII in a timely manner? That is my question. I think they just stated 2H05, which to me is not too late to catch the wave, but any slip in this might be damaging.
AMD Athlon 640 that they will inevitably launch in response to Intel's Pentium 535.
lol. Let's see how long it takes AMD to come up with a scheme to match this.
If Intel had designed the system so that performance could be inferred from the model number, that might have happened, but they didn't so the OEMs won't.
I hope you're right. As a consumer it would be nice to have a simple card displayed on all systems that point out the strengths and weaknesses of the system. I'm suggesting a benchmark suite that all major cpu companies, graphics companies, and OEMs have equal input into that is revised once a year. In this Intel based machines would probably win rendering and audio/video conversion, while AMD would win gaming, office, and pretty much everything else. OEMs could create specialty machines to target specific markets and be able to convey this to the consumer. This will never happen, but it would be nice from a consumer standpoint. For now the consumer will have to just do some internet research first, but I'm sure there are a lot of people who don't bother. The good news is AMD is selectively targeting important markets like the gaming, movie, and music industries, and word of mouth here may be the best thing anyway.
I think AMD marketing should promote little charts to go along with their cpus especially on OEM boxes.
Yes this would be a very good idea. They're going to have to pay Best Buy, Circuit City, etc., some marketing dollars to make this happen. That was my point. Intel's move is going to force AMD to make some marketing moves of their own.
Your example is not realistic:
My example was for a "dumb" consumer who wants the best system (there are lots of these). In my example the consumer was able to get the best system and save $200 when the comparison was easy as long as the model numbers lined up.
You could apply a similar example to mid-range systems where a consumer is looking for the best bang for the buck for $1500:
AMD Athlon 64 3200+ Intel P4E 535 (really a 2.8Ghz prescott but not advertised as such)
1G DDR400 memory 1G DDR400 memory
ATI Radeon 9600 ATI Radeon 9600
$1499 $1499
No. This does not follow, and doesn't make sense.
Ok here is the situation now:
AMD machine Intel Machine
Athlon 64 3400+ Intel P4E 3.4Ghz
1GB DDR400 memory 1GB DDR400 memory
ATI Radeon 9800 ATI Radeon 9800
$1999 $2199
AMD machine Intel Machine
Athlon 64 3400+ Intel P4E 765
1GB DDR400 memory 1GB DDR400 memory
ATI Radeon 9800 ATI Radeon 9800
$1999 $2199
he misleading "easy comparison" of the past was much better for them
If the "easy comparison" helped Intel, why did AMD even bother to do a model scheme? If you think AMD didn't benefit from introducing the model numbering scheme to allow easy comparison to Intel parts, you are mistaken. AMD's ASPs were in the dumpster until they introduced this. The "easy comparison" helped AMD increase ASPs most of the time, even if they didn't have the highest performing part. It would really help them now if Intel stuck with Ghz, as Intel is going to be at 3.6Ghz while AMD is at 4000+. Intel is smart to move to the model scheme to avoid this comparison. The people that used to just compare numbers without knowing what they mean are now going to compare cpu brand and price to figure out which to buy, and probably end up with an overpriced, underperforming Intel based machine. Hopefully most of these people will consult with people who know better.
However, AMD is becoming a premium, botique brand. They are playing BMW to Intel's role as GM:
I hope you're right, but my fear is AMD is still largely an unknown brand, and Intel is considered a BMW. AMD might just look like a Kia to some. I know in tech circles AMD will be considered a premium brand, and hopefully that will filter down through word of mouth. AMD marketing could also do some things here to help.
I think you're wrong. Intel moved to a model scheme because they *had* to.
Yes the had to, but it was a smart move because they will make it harder to do an easy comparison between Intel and AMD parts. This works to their advantage when they don't have the performance lead, and maybe even when they do.
Consumers will have to do homework.
The problem I see is I'm not sure most will. They'll probably look at the brand and assume Intel is better as they have the name. They'll base the rest on price and assume higher is better. AMD will be back to looking like a cheap knockoff.
I think AMD marketing is going to have to do some major work when this happens. Moving to a model scheme is a smart move by Intel.
If you leave the vesting to the compensation committee then they will be tempted to give immediately vesting stock to star recruits. For instance, 50% vests immediately and the other 50% over a regular basis
I think AMD is going to give these star recruits a signing bonus one way or the other. With this plan they can now use stock options instead of cash. That is a good tradeoff if you ask me. I'm voting for the plan.
Yes, it generally beats Intel's current offerings, but not by that much.
I think it depends on whether or not you are talking about Prescott Ghz or Northwood Ghz or Northwood EE Ghz. I think it will take a 4Ghz Prescott or better to clearly beat the FX-53 on 940. There won't be a 4Ghz Northwood. Will AMD adjust their ratings? I guess they don't have to as Intel is going to a model scheme. I would imagine part of this has to do with knowing they won't have a competitive part at the top end, so they'll make it to be more ambiguous by having a model number.
I wonder what AMD will do when Intel goes to model numbering. How are they going to show their parts are better than Intel's to the general consumer? The rating system was working in that area, even though most enthusiasts didn't like it.
Intel set to introduce processors with integrated memory controllers
We better keep our eyes on this. This could give Intel cores a big boost in performance. I wonder what the timeframe is. My guess is sometime in 05.