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GS removes ratings and price targets for early stage biotech
click through link (Sept 10, 2023) for pic of GS statement if it does not show.
Interesting move by Goldman, removing ratings & price targets until after phase 2. Why not just remove price targets in general? Most investors disregard them anyway and the approach by many sell side analysts is to adjust price targets after the fact. HT @Biotech_DD who I would… pic.twitter.com/kbsevuBVc9
— Daphne Zohar (@daphnezohar) September 10, 2023
The investment thesis is that the product is good enough to survive management.
PFE
Briefly dipped down to 34 this morning. Starting to look interesting. I'd like to see 32's.
ENTA made these other seven announcements via X/twitter in 2023.
It's a busy week. Enanta will be participating in fireside chats in NY today and tomorrow. Visit the "Events & Presentations" page on our website to join the webcasts. https://t.co/9wa5LQCASi pic.twitter.com/lEejHFdAis
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) May 16, 2023
Today at the @Jefferies Healthcare Conference, Jay R. Luly, Ph.D., our President & CEO and Tara Kieffer, Ph.D. our SVP of New Product Strategy & Development, will participate in a fireside chat. To access the webcast, visit here: https://t.co/wlszeYuS5H pic.twitter.com/2Wfel5FhJa
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) June 7, 2023
We’re looking forward to having our President & CEO, Jay R. Luly, Ph.D., present at the @Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 33rd Annual Healthcare Conference next Tuesday. For more details, read here: https://t.co/44Brq2yPOs pic.twitter.com/I3MeGOFbFv
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) March 7, 2023
Don't miss it! This morning Enanta's President & CEO, Jay Luly, Ph.D., and SVP, New Product Strategy & Development, Tara Kieffer, Ph.D., will participate in a fireside chat at the @SVB Securities Global Biopharma Conference at 8:40 a.m. https://t.co/U5wMLKgKP5 pic.twitter.com/B2IrLQw8FZ
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) February 14, 2023
Enanta CEO, Dr. Jay Luly and SVP, New Product Strategy & Development, Dr. Tara Kieffer will participate in a fireside chat at the #SVB Securities Global Biopharma Conference next Tuesday. For details, read here: https://t.co/NGJB9jstal pic.twitter.com/c9UHVU8zDb
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) February 7, 2023
We look forward to presenting updates on our R&D pipeline and business outlook for 2023 at the 41st Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference next week. For details on our CEO Jay R. Luly’s presentation on January 10 read here: https://t.co/kXzIg85GSq pic.twitter.com/LqUizMRPKN
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) January 6, 2023
Enanta Pharmaceuticals CEO, Jay R. Luly, will present at this year’s @jpmorgan Healthcare Conference on January 10. Join the webcast at 3:00 p.m. PST and hear about our pipeline progress. To register visit here: https://t.co/wlszeYuS5H pic.twitter.com/hRLBkB7YpE
— Enanta Pharmaceuticals (@EnantaPharma) January 3, 2023
It's getting kind of silly. They would have to spend a lot more than currently planned to justify price at/below 12.50, looks like some puking going on.
Good luck.
Was this you?
16:07:40 $14.85 1,934
ENTA is getting more interesting from a risk/reward perspective.
Obviously price has something to do with that. Getting a larger relative return on partnership due to current price being lower is most of it. Getting closer to possible fruition of a partnership is also part of it.
There should be one more Pam topline coming in pancreatic cancer. Probably fails there as well but better odds than DMD.
At one time keeping the asset unpartnered was viewed as something good. In retrospect not getting a partner looks like another warning sign.
That implies the under treatment of HIV should be an addressable priority irrespective of the virus mutations in normal populations.
Do you think the current HIV treatments are satisfactory or is there room for potential improvement? Guessing GILD still has control of the market? I don't follow closely.
From the 10-k filed earlier this year:
https://delcathsystemsinc.gcs-web.com/static-files/286defcc-bbb2-4ca5-8fee-22c01035cd2e
DCTH Delcath Systems, Inc. Announces FDA Approval of HEPZATO KIT™ for the Treatment of Adult Patients with Unresectable Hepatic-Dominant Metastatic Uveal Melanoma
https://delcath.com/investors/press-releases/
Some commentary from social media:
$HRMY Harmony Biosciences is now acquiring a microcap $ZYNE that was at -30 cents. Never a good sign when a one-product pharma co diversifies into a random cannabis-based topical gel, esp one with a long history of utter trial failures. The timing of the diversification…
— Scorpion Capital (@ScorpionFund) August 14, 2023
RVNC
It's a grind for long term holders too, since you are missing returns over 5% in T-bills. When short term rates were close to zero it was a different matter. Can't say where price will be or if it will be higher. I had approval at 99% FWIW and the only question was inclusion of trial data - which was still over 90% IMO.
One other point to repeat is that CD rollout doesn't start until next year. I think that is part of the problem - people expected sales to start ramping.
Not following GSK to know the prospects but I don't see a technical reason to sell here (GSK specific.)
RVNC to initiate rollout (therapeutic) next year. Label includes 52 week clinical data.
Popped to 20.38 for all of a minute and currently down at 18.83, so I think it's fair to say approval was priced in.
Whether or not you can call 20 'support' is a matter of personal opinion here. I'll say it's awfully squishy, kind of like my calling 22.6m in sales 'okay-ish'. Both are a bit light for my tastes. Oh well. It remains to be seen if price settles higher or lower or about the same, the next grind is earnings again in a few months.
The PFE news release on the acquisition, with sales estimates, came a full month before ENTA made this release on 938 failing in low risk:
https://ir.enanta.com/news-releases/news-release-details/enanta-pharmaceuticals-reports-topline-data-rsvp-study-edp-938
Okay.
Sounds like this time next year things could be rosy from 938 and/or 235. Think there is any chance 235 results in a buyout instead of a partnership? Earnings call spent a lot of time on 323, a lot of time on partnering 235.
Thanks.
So the tamiflu comment was made with 323 in mind (looking ahead) should it show benefit in low risk. Long way off and speculative, along with combos. Partnerships might be easier then. It's also more difficult when you are small enough that you have a hard time credibly telling potential partners that you can take it to market yourself.
I'm also assuming that ENTA would need a partnership for commercialization at a minimum and probably for registrational as well in peds RSV. So while 500m/year sales is a big deal for a small company you still need to give it a haircut, size depending on the deal with an interested BP.
On the plus side for ENTA, it seems that 'herd immunity' is unlikely to ever be a factor.
A few thoughts on ENTA post earnings
Since the earnings reaction was worse than anticipated, I wanted to look closer at the earnings call and related filings. The call transcript was useful to get a broad picture but there were a few places where it seemed best to listen to that portion on a replay. Doing so did make a difference in my understanding some of what seems to be going on and frankly was more bullish than just reading the transcript.
That said there were a few key takeaways for me. One is that the clock still hasn’t started on partnership for 235. Yes, there are things that can be done prior to the satisfactory completion of the current regulatory discussions but it is unreasonable to think that any kind of negotiation on partnership can get very far without both ENTA and partner having a clear idea of what regulatory needs to get the approval they seek, and how they can get it. That could happen within a few weeks or it could take longer, depending on all parties involved. Look for something from ENTA to have a better idea on that front:
- Q2 DAXXIFY® revenue of $22.6 million, a QoQ increase of 47.1%.
To get to that level ($10) they would have to commit to burning a good chunk of cash. They clearly aren't close enough on a 235 partnership and the street doubts that it is coming. RSV wasn't exciting before the current trials so it isn't clear what the picture will look like after readouts. I guess the challenge trial for the L compound could increase interest. TBD.
Congrats on your price call Jake. Price dropped to levels only seen in the first day(s) post IPO. I personally did not think it could go this low this fast, and have to reconsider the options plays I was looking at based on last nights earnings call. The setup is not what I was anticipating.
fwiw BIIB can return the rights (opt out).
Don't follow closely enough to know various $$ effects of partnership, etc.
https://twitter.com/markflowchatter/status/1688349914185535488/photo/1
h/t Marc Lehman
@markflowchatter
24 month data will be coming out soon enough. A guess at this time is good data there will allow for extension of label. TBD.
Thanks for the post, very informative. Appreciate the detail.
Some of your points and jbog's snooping raise a question related to the cosmetic side, which I will raise here because it ties into your commentary and not because of your practice.
jbog reported about 50% favorable online. My hypothesis is that is probably not too far off what should be expected given the combination of patient expectation of a duration that in clinical trial is only reached by the median participant, combined with the psychological, so it is not unreasonable to see up to 50% unfavorable comments.
ISEE approved
https://ivericbio.com/wp-content/uploads/IZERVAY-avacincaptad-pegol-intravitreal-solution-PI_Final_8.4.23.pdf
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/iveric-bio-receives-us-fda-approval-for-izervay-avacincaptad-pegol-intravitreal-solution-a-new-treatment-for-geographic-atrophy-301894042.html
The label is interesting:
HIGHLIGHTS OF PRESCRIBING INFORMATION
These highlights do not include all the information needed to
use IZERVAY safely and effectively. See full prescribing
information for IZERVAY.
---------------DOSAGE AND ADMINISTRATION---------------
The recommended dose for IZERVAY is 2 mg (0.1 mL of 20
mg/mL solution) administered by intravitreal injection to each
affected eye once monthly (approximately 28 ± 7 days) for up to
12 months (2.2).
Never said you did, others have. The paragraph was a comment about what some others do and I thought you would recognize that since you, as stated, haven't done that.
As to the quote, I'm not going to repeat how I replied to that. Nuance is hopeless on this medium.
Valid point about inertia, however my doctor in specific is generally open to new treatments and is not what I would describe as 'older'. Going to vary and yes, will matter with some.
As far as not having a choice pretty soon - that is speculative. Could happen! If and when are very much up in the air and should have zero effect on the early launch. In any case I think Allergan/AbbVie have some pull so who knows.
I think the main point of everything is the sales reps have their work cut out.