Biotech Values

[WorstLuck]

They may guide down - from 8 Billion - so plenty of meat on the bones

Given that Q1 sales of Paxlovid were 4.1 billion and Q2 was essentially a rounding error (0.14 billion) the assumptions from the switch to private insurance, seasonality et al are bound to have a high degree of uncertainty. With roughly 3.7 billion left to guide down from you are going to have to double that miss to get a rough idea of what full year sales might look like, and still have to deal with seasonality peculiarities specific to the 6 months in question. Not fun. Also the specifics of insurance coverage and any increased cost for patients is bound to reduce sales.

As far as an upfront goes, with outstanding shares of around 21 million any upfront would be "juicy" in that 100 million is approaching $5/share on a stock that is trading around $19. And takes away a lot more from the back end, assuming approval and decent sales. I think that also implies the partner is paying trial costs given ENTA's cash position (not needing an upfront).

What would you think of no upfront, shared expenses, a small milestone on approval, and a larger share of sales?