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Dollar drops against euro on new hope for Greece aid
Feb. 26, 2010, 1:22 p.m. EST
Euro posts first weekly gain in six
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell as much as 0.8% against the euro and declined versus other major currencies on Friday as a report about a possible deal to help Greece meet its financial needs supported the 16-nation currency.
The euro rose to $1.3606, from $1.3554 on Thursday. The single currency hit a nine-month low of $1.3440 on Thursday.
The dollar index /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 (DXY 80.45, -0.34, -0.42%) , which measures the U.S. unit against a trade-weighted basket of rivals, stood at 80.459, down from 80.744 in North American trading late Thursday.
The dollar came under pressure earlier as a pair of reports showed that U.S. consumer sentiment dipped this month and that existing-home sales fell 7.2% in January.
The dollar also fell to 88.84 Japanese yen, compared to 89.19 yen on Thursday.
A media report said Germany is considering whether to buy Greek bonds through state-owned bank KfW Group, easing fears that Greece will have trouble tapping the market for much-needed financial support, including a planned bond offering next week. See more on German, Greek deal.
U.S. data earlier also weighed on the dollar. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 73.6 from 74.4 in January, according to media reports. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been looking for the headline number to taper off to 73.7 points.
"There is a lack of impetus to take further bets in favor of the dollar especially in light of some tepid economic data of late, which in a sense provides a reprieve for the euro," said analysts at Interactive Brokers.
Earlier, the greenback trimmed losses after upwardly revised fourth-quarter gross domestic product data showed final sales were weaker than previously thought.
The Commerce Department said real GDP increased at a 5.9% seasonally adjusted, annualized pace in the final three months of 2009, up from a previous estimate of 5.7% and in line with economists' expectations. Read about the GDP revision.
Spotlight on Greece
Markets also continued to adjust positions to account for changing expectations of Greece's ability to refinance its debt and resolve its fiscal deficits, which pushed the euro down earlier this week. That may be enough to prompt some traders to unwind bets that the euro would fall.
"Although the Greek sovereign fears remain close to hand, the foreign-exchange market is a little calmer to end the week as dealers move to lighten the load a little wrapping up profitable short positions against the euro," Andrew Wilkinson at Interactive wrote in a morning note.
The euro managed to post small gains versus the dollar this week, thanks to Friday's gains. It's the first weekly gain in six.
The euro fell for a third month though, losing 2.3% versus the dollar in February.
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I think we are in for a...
bull close today and bullish gains all next week!
Dow 45 points from the 50MA if we close flat....looking to blast through next week...
Personally, I am in RIG and X....two FEROCIOUS BEASTS!! lol....
$COMPQ, $INDU, $SPX Charts
All close to the 50MA w/ only the NASDAQ above it by a fraction...shorter moving averages crossing the higher MAs....8x34...8x50....10EMA x 34MA..
NASDAQ looks best, currently 2 points above the 50MA:
$INDU, 30 points from the 50MA:
$SPX, 4 points from 50MA:
In X $55 calls, it just went green
50MA ahead at $53.27...last $53.22
RIG $80 March Calls $1.98
I have some at $1.6 that I'm still holding...but also some at $2.55 I'm still holding....I expect to break even on the $2.55, possibly sell for $3...
Critical gap filled yesterday:
Should get a nice $1 or $2 bounce off the 50MA on the weekly, 6 of last 7 weeks blood red, next week could be a good one...:
NASDAQ fighting the 50MA:
10:30 am : Action has been choppy among equities in the early going -- stocks recently rebounded back toward neutral ground after a broad-based slip. However, commodities have managed to trade with steady gains for most of the morning. Broad-based strength among commodities has helped the CRB Commodity Index make its way to a 1.0% gain.
Oil is currently one of the strongest plays in the commodity complex. Contracts last priced crude oil at $79.75 per barrel, up 2.0%. Natural gas prices are also up handsomely; they were last quoted at $4.83 per MMBtu, up 1.5%.
RIG should close > $80 if markets don't tank
50MA weekly: $79.24
Close: $79.24
Nice gap fill on the daily, got too far outside the bollies yesterday:
CYCC / CNLG Charts...
CYCC 60-Minute (Holding the 100 and 200 MAs):
CYCC Daily (holding the 34MA pink line well):
CYCC Weekly:
CNLG 60-minute:
CNLG Monthly (may hold the 10EMA):
Feb 25 update: Dow futures up 28 according to Bloomberg, 39 according to finviz.com...
25 Feb 2010 20:58
HK stocks to open up 1.27 pct; Cathay surges
HONG KONG, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares are set to
open up 1.27 percent on Friday as bargain hunters snap up
property and banking shares on hopes of a short term rebound from
recent weakness.
The benchmark Hang Seng Index <.HSI> was up 258.26 points at
20,657.83. The China Enterprises Index <.HSCE> of top locally
listed mainland Chinese stocks was up 1.17 percent at 11,522.23.
Cathay Pacific <0293.HK> rose 2.7 percent to HK$14.50 after
the Hong Kong flagship carrier said it would take an effective 49
percent interest in a $474 million cargo joint venture with Air
China <601111.SS> <0753.HK> to tap the growth in China's Yangtze
River Delta region.
DEAR volume has returned to POS levels...
Wouldn't be surprised to see it back in the 30 to 60 cent range in 2 months on 30K average daily volume or less
Nice bounce off the 20MA, good call
20MA: 108.96
Day low: 108.94
Close: 110.67
I think $COMPQ looks the best out of the 3 ($SPX and the $INDU)
Closed a half of 1 point below the 50MA which is what I am eyeing on the three indices...also the $COMPQ and the $INDU both got the 8x34MA bull cross today...Yellow (8) crossed above Pink (34) and headed to cross the Green (50) in next day or two..the 8 day moving average is pointed straight to the moon...
The $INDU is 52 points off the 50MA...and only 107 points off from setting a brand new 5 week high...
RIG $80 March calls...
Just a heads up, I am in at $2.5 and will hold for at least a couple days...a major gap filled this morning so it could move up now...significant bounce off the $76.96 low (last $78.36).....
Last March $80 RIG calls $1.81..
Sorry to hear that, get better soon...
...I might have gotten ahead of myself here...Bought $80 calls on the earnings crash when RIG dropped to $80.00...got in @ about a $2.5 avg.
Today markets are beet red and RIG is down to $78 with the calls last trade at $1.68 and low for the day $1.55.
Only good news is there was a 1-minute candle that brought RIG down to $76.96 which filled a gap....What do you think, recommend to do??? I'm thinking either hold until expiration or wait for the next pop and hopefully get out at $2.00ish......Thanks and take it easy!
Gap at $77 filled on RIG
Interesting.
So you remain bullish?
The Dow closed 2 points below the 50MA, NASDAQ 2 points above, S&P500 4 points below...
All 3 indices are within days of having the 8 day moving average cross above the 34 day MA which is very bullish...
Looking for a follow through tomorrow ...
The Dow closed at 10374....10438.55 was last weeks high so only 65 points from a fresh 5-week high...
RIG Weekly With 50 MA
$INDU/$SPX/$COMPQ with 50 MA a=192178672&r=294"> a=192178672&r=294" />
**light green line on all charts...NASDAQ only one slightly above, see if it holds...**
Not sure, all I know is I am 100% cash right now
Got in and out SPY puts for about .15/contract profit
Sold SPY $110 puts @ $2.31...last $1.94
I think we'll test the 50MA tomorrow and then maybe head back down...I'm on the sidelines, stress free for now!
I got in @ the 50MA on Friday
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=46833908
After it broke through I added at the 34MA yesterday...
Then it broke through the 34MA and I was just about to cut losses when I noticed resistance at the 50% retrace line which turned out to be the correct entry...Luckily the markets sold off the last 30 minutes yesterday otherwise I probably would have sold for a loss at the low of the day ($1.35), last $2.38
Starting with $50.50, then $50, then $48...
See how it reacts to each spot...There is a little gap at $48ish
EDIT: Yes, $48, spot on, lol..
S&P has a $35 12 month target:
S&P REITERATES SELL RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF UNITED STATES STEEL
Tuesday 01/26/2010 10:14 AM ET - Standard & Poor's Research Notes
X posts a Q4 loss of $1.86 vs. EPS of $2.50 on a 25% sales decline, slightly narrower than our $1.91 loss estimate. But, based on X's forecast for a Q1 loss, we cut our '10 estimate to $2.68 from $3.22, and we reduce our 12 month target price to $35 from $43. On our revised estimate and target price, X's projected P/E would be at a discount to the P/E we apply to its peers. We think a discount is warranted as it appears to us that its EPS recovery will lag that of its peers. Selling above our target price, we recommend sale of the stock.
US Equities
All I have is X puts...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=46965507
$COMPQ chart looks really bad to me
Check that 10 EMA
EDIT: The 10EMA is changing by the second on each refresh...
X Bearish Evening Star Pattern
EDIT: Didn't get the GS puts...was having some problems with my streamer through Bank of America...Was showing Dow up 20 points and the S&P flat when really at the time the Dow was down 40 points...Also missed the SPY $110 puts at $1.7....I'm in X puts though....
X Bearish Evening Star Pattern
Looks like a classic example to me...
Definition:
This is a major top reversal pattern formed by three candlesticks. The first candlestick is a long white body; the second one is a small real body that may be white. It is characteristically marked with a gap in higher direction thus forming a star. In fact, the first two candlesticks form a basic star pattern. Finally we see the black candlestick with a closing price well within first session’s white real body. This pattern clearly shows that the market now turned bearish.
X Bearish Evening Star Pattern
Looks like a classic example to me...
Definition:
This is a major top reversal pattern formed by three candlesticks. The first candlestick is a long white body; the second one is a small real body that may be white. It is characteristically marked with a gap in higher direction thus forming a star. In fact, the first two candlesticks form a basic star pattern. Finally we see the black candlestick with a closing price well within first session’s white real body. This pattern clearly shows that the market now turned bearish.
GS Chart
Just tanked about $1 in 2 minutes, have the $155 puts on streamer
I think puts...
I have March $50 X puts but not sure how long I will be in...might take profits today...
FSLR puts were a no brainer, especially after I made 40% on $115 February calls on Friday....I should have switched to puts but I didn't....That was when FSLR was at $118...now it's $108
I was looking at the spinning tops on the Dow and the S&P and also the 50MA as resistance and the 61.8% retracement from the bottom put in earlier this month to the high of the year in January....Slow STOs are rolling over, MACD looks like it may curve back down before crossing the 0 line
DTO - 2X Short Oil Looking Good Here
Previous close: $64.24
52-week low: $55.59
Last pre-market: $67.09, up 4%
AI
