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I would be reading if Dan Neil wrote the article. He knows cars but not biotechs. That is an interesting combo, biotechs and industrials. He must be really good with spreadsheets.
What would be the theoretical mechanism(s) for EPA/DHA causing AFib? IMO it will be hard to quantify cause and effect since many symptomatic AF folks start doing all sorts of supplements in pursuit more comfort even if they are getting beta blockers.
EIA - 2010 forecast vs actual. EIA and major's typically don't differ significantly and part of same cloud. I haven't looked at NEE's forecast or if they actually do one. Would be interesting to compare.
https://www.axios.com/energy-predictions-reality-check-524b9be9-2c0c-407e-86cb-37b11aa72ed2.html
TSLA - dichotomy of views at Bloomberg. I am guessing the majority that visits this board agree with the first and disagree with the second. I am only mildly bullish (few months) at this point given the sprint that the stock has had. wrt to second article, IMO in house numbers on c-truck reservations are significantly higher than what is in the press.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-18/tesla-saudi-aramco-have-more-than-stock-price-bros-in-common
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-23/tesla-is-decade-s-best-performing-automaker
That's understandable given the golfing buddies that he probably hangs around with - old money made on old ideas that no longer compete as things go digital and smart. Thiel needs to educate him better or perhaps Thiel decided that would be a loss cause and just let economics slam home the message. Thiel did try to get Musk involved in the beginning and that didn't go so well.
BA CEO - deservedly. He was the boss when 737 Max training turned into a profiting program instead of a safety program.
SA/ME renewables - Missed the news that Dubai solar PV bid crashed below 2 cents/kwh @ 1.695. Wasn't long ago, 2 years, that I was awed by bids crashing below 3 cents/kwh. It will be the natural course to shift more oil and NG to generate more export revenues and use the cheaper stuff at home.
http://saudigazette.com.sa/article/584641/BUSINESS/Middle-East-cleanenergy-projects-inpipeline-at-$100bn
AAPL - global propriety telecom ambitions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/apple-has-top-secret-team-working-on-internet-satellites
Dang it. I was just there buying curtain rods for my daughter's place. She laughs about getting the coupons in the mail and doesn't keep them. She will start now as I gave her big rubber bands like that used by Conan's assistant.
BA - another disaster. These old line companies want to charge through the nose but cannot deliver. SpaceX is charging 40% less than BA per astronaut seat. BA is actually charging more than the Russians were charging NASA.
BMW/Daimler - lots of JV programs going on to test various e-mobility models. Big barrier is upfront infrastructure costs.
https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2019/12/bmw-daimler-create-your-now-to-grow-mobility-ventures/
and the necessary adjustments
https://techcrunch.com/2019/12/18/share-now-the-daimler-and-bmw-owned-car-sharing-service-is-exiting-north-america-and-three-european-cities/
XOM - link to 2010 pdf file no longer works but I found some summary slides in the link below. Have a look and some chuckles particularly wrt to growth in wind and solar PV, and the cost projections as well. Looking forward to the 2020 outlooks report.
https://personal.utdallas.edu/~metin/Or6377/Folios/energy_outlook.pdf
The scenario modeling looks out 20 years and also 80 years. Forget the longer guess for now. Using the 2000 forecast (using that as example since they were similar between majors) of oil demand out in 20 years to 2020, we should be producing and using 120-130 million barrels currently. I don't know what the 2010 20-year forecasts look like. It will be interesting to study as I am sure that will be off quite a bit too. Most of the front window is actually a giant rear view mirror. They would be better off pretending they are aliens just landing on earth and don't know much if any history.
Was there a specific aspect of that scenario modeling that you want me to comment on?
RDS - More on their Australia activities. Also check out their energy scenario modeling stuff if interested. IMO it is guaranteed to be off by a large margin but at least they are being analytical about the complexity of transformation.
https://www.shell.com.au/media/2019-media-releases/shell-completes-acquisition-of-erm-power-limited.html
"I don't think any one brand is going to be independent in this endeavor" No question about that. However, they (legacy) can't figure that simple fact out. Instead they look at each other and say "yours" while the ball passes by. The only reason VW is doing something is because of diesel gate. Otherwise they would still be standing around pointing at each other. I think in the end, utilities will provide charging stations unless majors step in. Looks like Shell is setting up a nation wide pilot test in Australia.
I would think so as well. Taycan was suppose to be the Tesla S killer. Don't think so and $50K+/car extra for German engineering had me placing odds that they would come up with something way better than model S. IMO, there must be some built in handicap if a company is making lots of money building traditional ICE cars and trucks with a lot a sunk costs building up ICE manufacturing infrastructure. I think the best hope for EV competition may be the ID platform from VW. We shall see what they come up with. There is also the software side as well and that is tough going for legacy auto makers for reasons stated in earlier posts.
Cadillac GLOBAL sales are only 350K units per year. I am not sure why you think Cadillac can't handle charging infrastructure when that little startup company can.
TSLA - cruise down memory lane. Now that Cramer touts the stock on his show. I dislike being part of a bullish herd so I am less bullish in that it will definitely not double from here in six months. Who knows where momo will take this now that everybody plays the breakout. I would be much more comfortable with a bearish herd six months prior. There was a real signal a few days ago - Munro likes the cybertruck a lot.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-18/next-stop-420-tesla-stock-climbs-to-an-intraday-record-high
I would expect backwards compatibility for many devices. Hope they work fast and I expect hardware cost to come down as a result.
Yes. Looks like some patients that didn't make the screen for NASH trial will be allowed in NAFLD trial. NASH trial is biopsy based and NAFLD cohort will get non-invasive diagnostics.
MDGL begins dosing for NAFLD phase 3 trial NASH phase 3 started back in March.
https://www.madrigalpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Madrigal-Pharmaceuticals-Announces-Second-Phase-3_NAFLD-1-12-18-2019.FINAL_.pdf
AAPL/AMZN/GOOG - All three are now pushing for programming language standards for Internet-of-Things after going it alone, particularly AAPL. Pretty sure they are all variants of Unix so it will be a matter of agreeing to privacy standards and enforcement.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-18/apple-google-amazon-want-one-language-for-smart-home-devices
So I guess wasting 230000 BOPD+ equivalent into the atmosphere is perfectly fine for you in return for what these crappy little shale companies produce. We should just get rid of the EPA and railroad commission completely.
At least you get 20X that amount in oil production in W Africa for the same amount of flaring.
VCYT - will they follow the path of Genomics Health and FMI? Any thoughts?
https://investor.veracyte.com/static-files/407a2fe5-5b94-4ab6-986a-bd01165ab4a9
What expiration date?
I thought the 2015 plantar fasciitis was already written down so I wasn't being tongue in cheek this time. I haven't found the current production rate data so it could be fasciitis followed by bigfoot in the mouth disease if they are well short of 75000 BOEPD.
CVX - Forbes reporter wrote that the reason is reduced oil price forecast. Glad it was that instead of technical or execution incompetence.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/12/15/how-big-a-deal-is-chevrons-10-billion-impairment
TSLA - +5%. Delivery notices being sent out to China reservation holders. Market acting as if this is a surprise.
https://insideevs.com/news/388061/made-in-china-model-3-delivery-notices/
Yeah. It has only just begun. Our shale operations are going to make West Africa operations look clean in comparison.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Emissions-Soar-As-Permian-Flaring-Frenzy-Breaks-New-Records.html
"The government now aims for quality instead of just quantity, especially as subsidies would be more costly than they were a few years ago, when the market was much smaller."
IMO they are adjusting the subsidy policies for the next phase of adoption. ie more charging infrastructure and elimination of support for crappy makers of which there are many. Survivors will be Xpeng and BYD for sure, not sure of any others including NIO.
TTM/VLKAF/DDAIF - tough going in EV market for legacy luxury makers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-13/mercedes-delays-electric-debut-after-jaguar-and-audi-suvs-flop
Aramco valuation - Let's say you want to invest in a national oil company that produce around the same BOEPD as SA plus a nice dividend of around 7%, what would that valuation be?
Lukoil + Rosneft + Gazprom < 200B and pays >7% blended dividend
and IMO Russia has lower geopolitical risks than SA.
You are thinking of an outright rejection or very restrictive labeling? If you had to guess a probability number, what would yours be at?
GOOG - the struggles of transitioning towards a top down governance model from a flat governance model. IMO the open source model has made Google software the best in many areas and I hope they don't ruin that aspect with this transition. There is an alternative, break the company up as the flat model is just hard to sustain with growth and expansion into different activities like healthcare IT, robotics/AI etc...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-13/google-culture-war-escalates-as-era-of-transparency-wanes
I didn't talk about time scale and that is anyone's guess. That is also what we are experimenting with now while results of the experiment will be lived with by future generations. Hawking guessed a thousand years but the end state is easy to estimate just using a back of the envelop calculation like the one that Exxon did for Pres. Johnson. The tables in the appendix portion of Poling and Prausnits is all you need along with basic thermodynamics. You didn't understand that the prior propaganda has ALWAYS been that the climate models were over predicting temperature rise or that time scale of change was too pessimistic. I am sure that many that depend on the fossil fuel infrastructure for their livelihoods and fossil fuel alumni will argue that the empirical data now being gathered is just a bunch of garbage and that the models are right after all. I will restate that the current state of computing still does not allow for accurate modeling of the climate and the time scale and temperature heat distributions will not get close to the empirical data for at least another decade.
He thought that a runaway scenario, ie carbon locked in permafrost and gas hydrates release faster than human emissions minus CO2 captured by photosynthesis during summer season in northern atmosphere, would result in much higher than projected warming. Hundreds of degrees is possible but our species will be gone long before that happens. Seems like the only viable path forward will be geoengineering in that scenario.
China IP imports - Throw in a dose of harassment and help reverse the brain drain. US would could use the help of Taiwan intelligence agency in screening instead of adhoc harassment.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-12-10/the-u-s-government-s-mistrust-of-chinese-americans
CVX - The write down of Appalachia dry gas reserves is not surprising given NG prices. What is going on at Bigfoot though for them to write down so soon after startup? Couldn't tell from slide deck? Did you get any details elsewhere?
https://chevroncorp.gcs-web.com/static-files/67bad561-a933-4784-8203-307c8da70ea6