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Updated Share Structure for KAVL per T/A:
Outstanding = 276,495,148
Unrestricted = 34,386,517
Restricted = 242,108,631
Yeah we need some publicity. Not sure why it's so quiet.
Maybe the quarter will help.
Very interesting trade! 182k @ .1501.
Wonder if that was some sort of transfer to new owner or something.
True, nice bid at .86, looks very thin back to $1.00+
Lol you have it all figured out man.
I can't believe the OTC page shows delinquent. Doh!
We'll see if they just slam it down
I'm sure if you wanted to discuss CareClix services you'll get all the answers you need.
If you want to discuss financials and timelines for filings, gooooood luck. It's very clear that they are trying to avoid any leaking of information, which is better than them flapping their jaws to anyone and everyone.
You own no stock in SOLI, and here I am more patient than you lol.
For sure berdboy.
I can tell you this, if we see a monster q; anything around $50M+ in revenues and we're still stuck under $1.00 I will be buying a ton. Fundamentally, the company should be trading much higher.
We are currently trading at 15x the first Q results which we know is only 1 month and a quarter of the current distributors.
Just need the dilution to stop. At least it's holding this area.
Someone tried to paint it down to 33 after a nice 50k share buy at .037. I took one for the team and re-painted it at 37.
nice .37 slap. Would love an .04+ close! Let's see it!
nice .37 slap. Would love an .04+ close! Let's see it!
Float is only 33M.
Currently hanging out above the 20 and 50 day SMA on the weekly, with the 100day up around .10.
Just need some strong buying and we'll get there!
It does seem like someone with a large chunk of shares has been holding this down for a while. OTCX gets slapped and size doesn't change. Same with CDEL.
At some point they will run out of shares to sell (Since it's not dilution) and in the meantime it's an opportunity to pick up undervalued shares.
I grabbed more in the 80s today.
Some folks are just not in tune with the facts and financials here.
We've been here all along so I can somewhat understand, but if you did basic DD you would see the monster KAVL really is and how it's still undervalued!
There is rational for $100M based on the first Q.
We did 22.5M with 2 distributors in roughly 1 month.
It would seem pretty logical to assume, that after quadrupling your distributors, tripling the months of business and expanding globally into New Zealand, Australia, Canada and Europe that we would see an increase of revenue to $100M pretty quickly.
In fact, I can make a case for $100M being conservative based on data we know from Q1.
Seems we're stuck with penny stock mentality folks who sell on the first sign of news.
To real investors, the change will be significant. If we do 50M in this next Q, and annualized that to 200M, look at the EPS and PPS differences:
50M revenue, 12% margin = $6M net profit
at 572M O/S that's an annual EPS of .0419
at 272M O/S that's an annual EPS of .0881
Add on a 30x multiple
with 572M O/S that's a share price of $1.26
with 272M O/S that's a share price of $2.64
If we are indeed worth $2.64/share and we're trading sub $1.00, it would be in the companies best interest to buy shares back with their free cash flow which further reduces the O/S and gets them closer to minimum NASD bids.
Pretty weak day so far, but it's all good.
At some point the share price will catch up to the valuation of the company. That's the day we see a huge 50-100% gain out of the blue for no reason.
That .04 break is going to be great.
ARCA on the bid at .0359.
Seems like it won't take much to get us over .04 and then the party should start.
I have no desire to sell here. If revenues grow and margins remain strong, there is no reason this won't be multi-dollars. Selling at .80 or .90 or even $1 seems silly.
Now, if it was a diluting stinky pink, then yes I'd be bailing, but we know that's not the case :p
Lol this guy!
Looks very thin after that .74 ask.
We'll see.
But don't they know CareClix is a grey sheet scam? Why would they ever do business with them.
At some point people should start to realize that opinion is completely wrong. CareClix is booming, and it will all work out for longs here :D
Is it Monday yet?
Really curious to see how the market reacts. I fully expect a nice pop, but if we don't get it, don't be too discouraged. It will all work out.
Your "rational thoughts" are based on your penny stock mentality.
I know I said it a few times already, and I'm just catching up on posts, but removing O/S from a company with positive earnings will increase the EPS, which in turn will increase your valuation.
If this was a diluting penny stock with no revenue or no net profit, then yes, removing O/S wouldn't do much unless they are buying from the open market. But the fact is, KAVL is producing revenue, and generating a net profit. By cutting the O/S, you're doubling the EPS, which gives you a higher base to add a P/E multiple.
.06 * 20x PE vs .12 * 20x PE gets you two very different valuations.
Your penny stock mentality is seeping from your pores.
If you take a step back, look at their quarterly, read in the information provided, look at what they have succeeded in doing the last 5 months, and stop comparing KAVL to a typical penny stock, you'll realize it's not like all the rest.
Revenue, positive cash flow, net income, and NO GOING CONCERN. No going concern means they don't need to dilute in order to keep operations going.
In an efficient market a stock should keep it's market cap/valuation when shares are removed or added.
For example, KAVL was valued at $400M with 572M O/S.
If they doubled the O/S, I would expect the market cap to stay at $400M, but the PPS would be half due to all the new shares.
Likewise, if you cut the O/S in half, the share price should double, keeping the same market cap.
Additionally, fundamentally, your earnings per share will double with the O/S cut in half. So instead of say a .015 earning per share, we're looking at a .03 EPS. That is why, the move to reduce the O/S, even if it was all restricted and not in the float to begin is a great move for every shareholder because it increases the valuation per share.
The problem many here will have is, they look at this as a penny stock. This is a revenue generating company with positive cash flow and positive net income, meaning your EPS is very important, and your PE ratio will depend on the company trajectory. Like I said above, with lower O/S, your EPS will be higher, catapulting the share price with growing earnings/profits.
It really depends on who's invested/watching KAVL imo.
I've seen stocks move minimally off of O/S cancellation, but KAVL isn't like those. This one actually has positive earnings with an EPS that doubled because of a reduction of shares, means we SHOULD, in an efficient market shoot up to $1.45 to match the reduction.
Regardless, in the grand scheme of things, this is GREAT news!
$10/share would look great even on positions of 25k shares.
Congrats to all those holding huge amounts (1M+). I wish I had that many haha.
Berdboy I'll send you my address so you can send me some booze :p
And that assumes my conservative estimates. This could be a massive quarter, especially if we see one of these distributors does more business than Favs.
Good things coming to us longs and I hope there is a real short position and CDEL gets whacked!
Agreed. Now, even if you're up a ton, is not the time to sell. WAY TOO MANY possibilities in the next few quarters. I'm going to watch their growth, that will tell the story.
I would say a majority of the main group are in under .05 but I didn't want to leave out the folks who bought due to the first earnings release, because they are just as important/forward looking as the rest of us.
We've all held this long, we saw the stock go over $1.00, we saw it drop back into the $.60s, and yet, we are all still here. Our reward is coming!
Revenue/Profit/EPS Estimates
Last quarter results we saw $22.5M in revenue and $2.8M net profit in pretty much one month of business. For the sake of being conservative, we'll say it was for a month and a half. It was also for 3 distributors and instead of using an average of $7.5M for each, I'll utilize a number of $2.5M per new distributor, since 2 of the 3 distributors only did roughly $2.5-$3M in April.
So with no growth and no additional distributors it would be safe to assume roughly $45M in revenue for our next quarter.
If we add on the new 5 distributors, assuming $2.5M of revenue from each per month and I'll be conservative and say they've only been around for 1.5 months, we're looking at another $19M of revenue.
So $64M estimated revenue for the next quarter. Same 12% margin puts us at $7.7M net income. Based on our new O/S, that's a .03 EPS.
To get a valuation of the company, we should annualize the EPS, to .12.
Next is the fun part, what multiple do you give a growing company? 15x which is standard for a low growing blue chip? Or do you give it a 30x? 50x? Hell, TSLA trades at a forward PE of 130x.
.12 * 15x = $1.8 share price
.12 * 30x = $3.6 share price
.12 * 50x = $6 share price
For those stopping by after seeing the 300M O/S Reduction.
Here is a basic timeline with some tidbits of data to start you on your DD journey.
March 9, 2020, the Company commenced business operations upon entering into the A&R Distribution Agreement with Bidi.
In April, in connection with the A&R Distribution Agreement, the Company entered into the A&R Sub-Distribution Agreements with certain third-party counterparties, whereby we appointed such counterparties as non-exclusive sub-distributors
Quarterly results were posted through April 30, 2020 and revealed $22.5M in revenue with a net profit of $2.8M. Keep in mind, these earnings were based on have 2 sub-distribution agreements and roughly around 1 month of business.
Since 4/30/2020 there have been an additional 6 distributors set up, and next quarterly report will be a full 3 months of revenue, not 1 month like the last quarter.
It's funny how there are only a handful of players here still. The same handful since .10 or so. Now we all get to take the ride higher together. Going to be a lot fun.
Did you read the PR too?
I know we all knew this already based on some website URLs, but it's good to see it in writing...
The development comes on the heels of the Company commencing its plan to expand its distribution of the Bidiā¢ Stick, a top-quality vape device designed for the modern adult vape user, internationally into the European Union, New Zealand, Australia, and Canada.
What is really good to see is the company hasn't leaked anything. If anyone knew that this was coming, you would have seen buying today. Volume today is lower than our 10 day average. SURPRISE!