full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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Oh? What kind of surprise? Please share.
OT: Koz, while you have been pounding the table on the NVNT handjob machine, the $Texas has been losing value, now w/in a penny of the $Loonie.
You TX boys need to get a posse together and go down to Crawford, TX to see cuzzin George. You may find him out cutting sagebrush or looking into the soul of Pootin, but find him somehow and ask him what can be done to save the farm.
Interesting to see his numbers in the PR, but I suspect he is really defining the math for calculating relative value of ADIT ($1/share) vs. TARM ($4/share) for purpose of conversion when convertible note is not repaid by July 1, 2010.
As Dr. Frankenstein said, "It's alive; it's alive!
I guess I'm hoping for eventual clarification by Miller mgt of the long-term development plan for building out the assets to achieve their underlying value. 1100 bbls/day is not a big enough story to gain major investor attention.
We little ol' VMC stockholders wouldn't want to be surprised sometime by their selling off large chunks of assets to pay the taxes. Weirder things have happened.
Hey, where's Paul Harvey for "the rest of the story" when we need him? IMHO uncertainty about the longterm is probably the main thing that will keep the price in the "high fives", though like you said, stock price was at $2.50 on 1/4/10.
Indeed "high fives" all around to all MILL holders.
'peeker
MILL.ob: Has anyone heard details of any mgt plans to do more PR to help build stock price toward NAV? I mean ... keeping one's nose to the grindstone only goes so far when trying to build stock price so it becomes useful currency.
Ithaca ... down a bit today ... was the 20ft sand interval less than expected perhaps ???
They referred to starting a 12day DST. What is DST?
Thanks in advance,
'peeker
Gold demand in China may double in the next decade:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=aH_vhx7LNgro
By Kyoungwha Kim
March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Gold consumption in China may double within the next 10 years, boosting prices as supplies fail to keep pace with booming demand from investors and the jewelry industry, the World Gold Council said.
“China has an insatiable appetite for gold, which looks likely to continue in an environment where domestic mine supply lags behind demand,” the council said in a report today.
China’s economy grew 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace in two years, after a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package spurred record lending and consumption. The world’s biggest gold producer has increased reserves by 76 percent to 1,054 metric tons since 2003 and has the fifth-biggest holdings by country, Hu Xiaolian, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said in April.
“An uptick in China purchases could bring an impetus back to the gold market,” said Hwang Il Doo, Seoul-based senior trader with KEB Futures Co, by phone today. “Given China’s currency reserves and rising wealth, the impact from their buying on prices will be powerful, although it may take time.”
Bullion prices have gained 21 percent in the past year as the global recession spurred demand for haven assets and the dollar weakened 5 percent against six major currencies. Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,106.80 an ounce at 1:50 p.m. in Singapore.
“On the investment side, we see exponential growth,” Albert Cheng, the council’s managing director for the Far East, said in an interview in Beijing.
‘Snowball Effect’
Chinese demand from investors and the jewelry industry, which account for 80 percent of purchases in the country, reached 423 tons in 2009, while domestic mine supply was 314 tons, according to the group’s data.
The output shortfall will create a “snowball effect” as the country’s production fails to keep pace with the annual leap in consumption, the report said. China’s gold output rose 8 percent a year from 2006 to 2009, it said.
Higher mine development costs, potential supply disruptions, tougher safety regulations and depleting ore bodies could put a much higher floor under the gold price, according to the council.
“Near-term inflationary expectations and rising income levels are likely to support the investment case for gold as an asset class, especially given that Chinese consumers are high savers and are looking to gold to protect their wealth,” the council’s report said. “Jewelry and investment growth are expected to be the chief drivers of demand.”
Investment Demand
If gold jewelry buying in China reaches the same per capita rate as India, Hong Kong or Saudi Arabia, the nation’s annual demand could increase by at least 100 tons to as much as 4,000 tons, the Council said.
“Historically, in the past five years, about 20 percent of gold was bought for investment, about 60 percent was bought for jewelry” and the rest for industrial use, Cheng said. “Last year there was a change. Jewelry has come down to about 50 percent and investment has grown to about 30 percent,” he said.
Policy makers in China “encourage some alternative investments, but they don’t want people to go crazy about property or the stock market,” said Wallace Ng, executive director of commodity derivatives with Fortis Nederland NV in Hong Kong. “So they might encourage them to buy other assets such as gold.”
The world’s central banks also hold gold as a component in their portfolio of reserves, but they don’t buy gold as a “trading mechanism,” Cheng said. In the past 15 years, central banks in the western world have generally sold gold and “rebalanced their portfolios,” he said.
Banks Buying
Since last year, the world’s central banks have switched from selling to buying, Cheng said. Russia, India, China, Sri Lanka and Mauritius have all added to their reserves. “That is a big change,” he said.
Gold accounts for 1.6 percent of The People’s Bank of China’s $2.4 trillion total reserves, according to the council’s report. If the bank raised its gold holdings to the peak of 2.2 percent reached in the fourth quarter of 2002, the “incremental demand would amount to a further 400 tons at the current gold price,” the report said.
Still, China’s central bank hasn’t stated whether it will add to its gold holdings, Cheng said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Kyoungwha Kim in Singapore at Kkim19@bloomberg.net William Bi in Beijing at wbi@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 29, 2010 01:52 EDT
AEMD and CSGH:
2morrowsGains, I see you picked AEMD for the wildcard in the Pick6 contest, and I really do like the story. Just wish they had more cash on hand to make things happen. Getting a German company to make their product is interesting, but I wish they had a strong US partner would help assure the product gets FDA approval and distributed thru existing medical supply channels.
Bought a starter today at .39 and will wait to see which way price momentum goes before adding more.
CSGH: See you had them in the pick6 as well. Haven't heard enough from them about their tests of their batteries by potential customers. Do you know anything more about that?
Regards & Great wkend,
'peeker
GWMAN, thanks for the feedback on the JJman. I bought a small starter in AEMD at .39 today. Wish I'd bought a large chunk a year ago though.
Thanks tmcal6. Market seems to be saying MILL (+6%) looks much better than IAE.v (-6%) today.
Of course we would have this issue if IAE had not done so well for all of us here.
Have a great day!
AEMD LOI with Membrana is subject to contractual agreement. I watched the latest CEO talk at RedChip conference. GREAT overview on the technology and therapies AEMD product can be used for. Very interesting stuff, particularly focus on Hep-C and commercialization in India. As CEO said, "AEMD does own the technology, but commercializing the technology will be tough".
IMHO, that contract with Membrana will make or break AEMD stock price, meaning AEMD doesn't have much cash in the bank, but their product has great potential for growth. Membrana has been making filters for a long time, and they are big enough to take AEMD pps to the floor or lift them to great new heights, depending on the tenacity of Membrana's contract negotiator and the direction they receive from Membrana's CEO.
The Form144 filings by 2 directors to sell 350,000 shares makes me think AEMD does not have enough leverage (cash on hand) to resist an aggressive negotiation by Membrana. In other words, Membrana knows that AEMD needs Membrana much more than vice versa.
AEMD has a great story; I'm just not sure they have the capacity (cash/size) to remain independent and grow use of their filtration systems to meet the need.
I'd love to know more about the technology (great benefits to patients worldwide) and growing use of the product.
'peeker
ps> Don't own AEMD yet, but looking for a good entry point, preferably under $.40/share.
IAE.v/IACAF.pk: I'm overloaded on Ithaca, so am thinking of selling half and using proceeds to add to MILL.ob and start a position on MMT.v/MAUXF.pk?
All have great long-term prospects. Anyone have a clear idea (or strong opinion) about which of the 3 is most undervalued at this particular point in time?
Opinions greatly appreciated.
'peeker
AEMD: Sorry, I can only see them using Tradestation platform. There were 2 Form 144s filed today (Mar25). One was for 200,000 and the other was for 150,000, so my total was wrong; it looks like two directors are selling a total of 350,000 sh.
A call to AEMD's investor relations person should help clarify the "official reason" or some story about why they needed the money in a hurry.
AEMD: Form 144s show about 250,000 sh for sale by insiders (directors). Not sure if that is what pulled the legs out of the early morning price surge after Membrana deal, but insider sales are what they are, and they usually know more than we do short-term.
Don't own it yet, and canceled buy order when I saw the 144s. Will give the price a couple of days to reach equilibrium before committing funds.
CEMI: Bought some this morning as starter position.
Probably Q4 this yr (just a guess), but perhaps before that if GORO mgt wants to begin buoying the pps.
Personally I'm reaching the point of being somewhat disgruntled with the lack of detail on operations at the mill. I know a picture is worth a thousand words, and they have plenty of pictures on the website, but my cynicism makes me worry that something is not going as smoothly as expected at the mill.
For instance, they have been talking since December about producing concentrates. Why haven't they announced shipments or contracts with a buyer yet? Perhaps they not getting the yield they hoped for, or there are logistical problems getting trucks of concentrate shipped to nearby ports, or (best case) they may be trying to go all the way and pour their own gold vs. ship concentrate.
We'll find out something soon, no doubt, but one gets tired of waiting to find out why gold sales (revenue stream) are being delayed.
Hochschild mgt shakeup does seem to have had a negative impact on GORO price (about $,50 or so), probably mostly due to the uncertainty surrounding how new mgt at Hochschild will do things differently wrt GORO. Change of mgt obviously negates any verbal assurances between GORO and Hochschild mgt, and GORO will need to create NEW relationships at Hochschild.
This may increase chances of GORO takeover by Hochschild in future, when they have worked out majority votes with other major stock holders. Short-term I don't think Hochschild will continue buying in the open market, as new mgt will be in assessment mode.
MILL.ob had a great qtr no doubt. However, now that they have all those assets and have remarked on their high book value in a PR, I don't know what else is in the bag of tricks to make it go higher from here, except .... INCREASING PRODUCTION (the hard part)!!!
I sold half today at 4.75 and bought it all back at 4.50, so I'm happy about that, but going forward ... ????
Miller needs to be more vocal about their detailed plans for the future. Just thinking out loud here, but if they don't have the money in place to pay for rapid development of their leases, their business plan may be to sell off some of their recently acquired Alaska assets (at discount) to provide development capital for areas they think should have the best long-term production potential.
glta,
'peeker
CEMI plans to eventually sell their test kits OverTheCounter starting in 2011.
From today's news release:
"Chembio is now registering and establishing distribution for the DPP® oral fluid HIV test in developing world markets where there is expected demand for this unique product. Once Chembio receives the PMA approval currently anticipated to be during 2011, it intends to market the product through its own sales organization in order to provide its customers with optimal pricing and support. Chembio also then intends to pursue Over-the-Counter (OTC) approval of this product. "
ps> This would be considered Socially Responsible investing, but like Bob says, it could turn out to be a big winner down the road.
About URANIUM, down the road, nuclear technology will (perhaps) be able to use depleted uranium in small reactors.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100323/ts_afp/japannuclearusgatescompanytoshiba_20100323053821
MILL is paying more to the US Govt than they did thru the bankruptcy courts? Wow, that's a mindbender. OK, now where will all that cash for taxes come from?
Projection: Should hit $10.70 by end of this week.
Haha, ok, well that's what it was a few minutes ago.
Have a call in to GORO HQ, but got the answering machine. I guess they are celebrating something.
Trying to find out what the story is on the mill ops, as they have been UNABLE TO MEET THEIR SCHEDULE GOALS very well over the last year.
Back in December, they said they hoped to produce concentrates by end of yr (if all went well, which it hasn't). They need to start pumping out some concentrate AND pouring gold to get the cashflow to pay all their new employees, contractors, cooks and bottlewashers. They also need the cashflow to keep Hochschild from buying more stock on the cheap.
Their always-optimistic outlook begins to look like idle spin after awhile.
ps> I agree it's nice to see GORO up on a down day. Maybe we'll hear news to explain why it's moving up in the next few days.
AUMN just hit $8 even, down 11% today. Not sure if this puts the $8.50 price of the PP at risk, but obviously the "big boys" aren't pushing it up yet.
The selloff in AUMN makes some sense today just because selling is in the air.
Most commodity stocks (hell, most stocks) are off today, breaking the long-running upward trendline.
'peeker
ps> I added a few at $8.05 but ain't gonna venture out on the ledge any further today.
ATPG looking to slip back below $18 again, as whole market is off today for fear of healthcare bill unknowns and strong dollar. Doesn't this appear to be a good add/buy opportunity?
I'll be adding a little here if the market starts to bounce at all.
CSGH not doing well lately, especially today.
Anyone have a clue why not?
TIA,
'peeker
IMHO: You sound like the captain of the Titanic pronouncing to passengers that icebergs will not be a problem. There are lots of old sayings that may pertain, like:
"the trend is your friend", or
"don't stand in front of a moving train", or
"better safe than sorry", or
"discretion before valor", or
"age before beauty", or
"stupid is as stupid does".
Trying to call a turn in the market is always risky business, especially when psychologically tied to the call (money being where the mouth is).
Getting ready to jump into a short position when the market has changed direction would be much more rational before the market has turned.
jmho,
'peeker
SMTX: Hey, I can be found in the engine room. BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrrrrrrrrrrrr.........
It's MILL-ertime!
Great news, Bob, did they give a hint about who they are working with to fund Phase II?
DRWI, Wade, on what do you base your very optimistic prediction?
ESPH: On further reading of the WSR report, ESPH does project about 20million in revs for 2010, so it is growing based on contracts already in place, so that will bring the P/S down from 150 in 2009 to about 5 in 2010, which represents very good real growth.
ESPH now up 10% on the day. I started yesterday at 1.06, so thanks for the recommendation.
Question: As this is a small business currently, with lots of potential if new regulations require cleaner water in the shale gas and oil fields, do you know the contractual value of their large existing customers?
?? Southwestern Energy has signed a multi-year contract to provide two sets of equipment, each
capable of processing 120 barrels of water per minute.
?? Newfield Exploration is currently using the technology in production in the Woodford Shale.
?? BP has been field testing units on a variety of paid pilot programs.
Admittedly I haven't read all of the research report by Wall St. Resources, but the info on Yahoo is almost nonexistent for this small but innovative company.
Not trying to get much attention here, just looking for confirming info to show the company is indeed growing. Yahoo shows their P/S at 150 or so, which makes this look like a great idea that hasn't turned into big business yet.
Thoughts appreciated, as always,
'peeker
MILL ... unbelievable move in the last 3 days. It has to correct some short-term ('specially since I don't still got some). Take her down to 4 and I'll buy big gobs of it.
'peeker
ps> kickme now, but kickme harder when it gets back to $4.
Just a thought about the recent TARM/TRGD price retreat.
Hmmm, maybe the "good news" about the separate 300ton circuit for gold production is seen as negative because of the 9mo delay for gold revenues. In other words, what sounds like great news for next yr may have put a damper on short term revenue expectations and stock performance.
Of course there's also the probability that 9months may take longer than "2 weeks". On the bright side, maybe the CEO realizes there is long-term value to be gained if TRGD financials are done before starting to show strong gold revenues. IMHO long-term value for TRGD and TARM will be enhanced by completing financials on the way to stock uplisting.
glta,
'peeker
IAE.v/IACAF.pk: Letter of Intent for Athena FPSO - March 15, 2010
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES
Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX VENTURE:IAE)(AIM:IAE) and its wholly owned subsidiary Ithaca Energy (UK) Limited ("Ithaca" or the "Company"), an independent oil & gas company with exploration, development and production assets in the UK sector of the North Sea, is pleased to announce that further to its February 8, 2010 announcement, Ithaca has signed a Letter of Intent ("LOI") with BW Offshore for the use of the Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel 'BW Carmen' ("FPSO") for the production
of oil from the Athena Field.
As a step towards the fully termed contract being signed during Q2 2010, specific engineering studies to develop the safety case and define the vessel upgrade will be carried out by BW Offshore. It has been agreed that the contract will contain an initial fixed charter period of 3 years with an option to extend throughout the life of the field. Under the agreed schedule, the FPSO will be deployed to the Athena field in mid 2011, as previously planned. Initial gross production rates are expected to be 22,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") (4,950 bopd net to Ithaca).
BW Offshore is one of the world's leading FPSO contractors and a market leader within advanced offshore loading and production systems to the oil and gas industry. BW Offshore has 25 years'
experience and has successfully delivered 14 FPSO projects as well as 50 turrets and offshore terminals.
John Woods (Chief Developments Officer) commented: "This agreement represents another major step forward for the Athena Project. BW Offshore has shown an outstanding ability to adapt and innovate to meet the project requirements. Negotiations on the major contracts for subsea facilities and drilling
services are progressing and we anticipate reaching agreement in the near future."
In accordance with AIM Guidelines, Lawrie Payne, MA Marine Geology (Alberta & Columbia) and Chairman of Ithaca Energy is the qualified person that has reviewed the technical information contained in this press release.
Not for Distribution to U.S. Newswire Services or for dissemination in the United States.
CVU: 3 observations:
1. 3yr projections didn't change much from yr ago comment as posted by mandjb.
2. CVU up about 10% in last wk, indicating a little forward knowledge of today's announcement.
3. Thin trading volume...
Other than that, growth IS impressive.
07:25 YUII: Rodman & Renshaw notes Friday YUII hosted a conference call after the market closed to provide the rationale behind Grant Thornton's resignation as the co's public accountant and address investor's concerns. To remind investors, on 3/11 YUII announced the resignation of its independent registered public accounting firm, Grant Thornton, which had been appointed by the co on December 8, 2009. The reason stated by Grant Thornton for the resignation was a material weakness in YUII's internal financial controls related to related party loans between Yuhe International and Shandong Yuhe Food Group, a private co 80% owned by YUII's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Zhentao Gao. Firm does not view this as a material risk to the ongoing business, reported financial results or its forward looking ests and believe that this process will be adjusted going forward. Firm believes that the volatility created from the resignation has created an oversold situation and a compelling value proposition. Firm views this pullback as a good entry point or a way to add to existing positions for longer-term and GARP investors.
11:06 DRWI:
DragonWave: GROWX issue attempting to find initial support off of its 200-day ema (8.77) following its recent ~32% 2-wk pullback (9.25 -0.14)
Because of the ascent and consistency of the 52-wk uptrend, this is the first test of this longer-term moving average since Jun-09. A pullback into the first test generally leads to an initial upward retracement of the current pullback. Would note that the 8.50 area comes into play as support from the mid Nov range lows as well. (GROWX)
ATPG earnings (20cent loss in Q4). Operational update on Telemark, etc.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ATP-Announces-Deepwater-bw-1092370392.html?x=0&.v=1
Excerpt:
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation On Friday March 12, 2010, 8:20 am
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (NASDAQ:ATPG - News) today issued its annual 2009 results, a 376% reserve replacement ratio, and announced that its major deepwater Gulf of Mexico development, the Telemark Hub, is on schedule for first production later this month. At ATP’s other deepwater development, the Canyon Express Hub, the MC 217 #3 well was placed on initial production March 11, 2010 at 30 MMcf/d gross.
Telemark Hub Update
ATP’s major deepwater Gulf of Mexico development, the Telemark Hub, is on schedule to commence production during March 2010 from the Atwater Valley 63 # 4 well. This well was tested in February at a gross rate in excess of 10,700 Boe/d from two zones. The ATP Titan, the Telemark Hub’s state-of-the-art floating production and processing facility, is in the final stages of commissioning following the installation of all major production and processing components. The sales pipelines have been hydro-tested and dewatered.
The initial sections of the Nabor’s platform rig 202 began arriving this week. Following erection of the drilling rig on the ATP Titan over the next several weeks, ATP will begin the process of re-entering and completing the Mississippi Canyon (“MC”) 941 #3 well. The MC 941 #3 well, which has been drilled and cased, is expected to commence production in the second quarter 2010. In September 2009, this well encountered 266’ of net pay, triple the amount of net pay found in the original control well.
ATP operates the Telemark Hub with a 100% working interest and owns 100% of the ATP Titan and associated pipelines and infrastructure.
Canyon Express Hub Update
At King’s Peak, the MC 217 #3 well began production through the Canyon Express pipeline on March 11, 2010 at a gross rate of 30 MMcf/d. At Aconcagua, MC 305, two additional wells, the #3 and #4, are scheduled to resume production at a rate of 30 MMcf/d gross, bringing the entire Canyon Express Hub production rate up to 60 MMcf/d gross.
ATP operates the Canyon Express Hub with a greater than 50% working interest in the wells and associated pipelines, which have a throughput capacity of approximately 500 MMcf/d.
Results of Operations
Oil revenues rose to 75% of total oil and gas revenues in 2009 compared with 56% in 2008. Oil and gas production for 2009 was 5.9 MMBoe compared to 9.6 MMBoe for 2008. In the fourth quarter 2009, ATP produced 1.3 MMBoe compared to 0.9 MMBoe in the fourth quarter 2008. With the startup of production at the Telemark Hub, ATP anticipates a further increase in its oil revenues as a percent of total revenues as well as its oil to gas production ratio during 2010.
Lease operating expense was $85.0 million for 2009 and $24.5 million for the fourth quarter 2009, compared to $91.2 million for 2008 and $18.1 million for the fourth quarter 2008. Lease operating expense for 2009 decreased compared to 2008 primarily due to the sale of 80% of the two North Sea properties mentioned above and from reduced fuel and chemical costs in the Gulf of Mexico. These cost decreases were partially offset by increases related to insurance premiums and nonrecurring workover activities at various Gulf of Mexico and North Sea properties.
General and administrative expense was $44.2 million for 2009 and $19.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2009, compared to $41.7 million for 2008 and $14.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2008. The general and administrative expense increased in 2009 compared to 2008 due primarily to the payment of third party fees related to ATP’s debt modification in the fourth quarter 2009.
Interest expense decreased to $40.9 million in 2009 compared to $100.7 million in 2008 primarily due to 2009 capitalized interest of $110.1 million compared to capitalized interest of $44.6 million in 2008. Capitalized interest in 2009 increased due to higher average construction work-in-progress balances.
ATP recorded a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $51.8 million or $1.24 per basic and diluted share for 2009, compared to net income of $121.7 million or $3.43 per basic and $3.39 per diluted share for 2008. For the fourth quarter, ATP recorded a net loss of $40.0 million or $0.80 per basic and diluted share, compared to net income of $50.2 million or $1.41 per basic and diluted share for the fourth quarter 2008. Fourth quarter results were impacted by delays related to a well recompletion at ATP’s Gomez Hub. The recompletion of the MC 711 #4 well was successful in January 2010 and, as a result, the comingled well tested at a net rate in excess of 4,600 Boe/d.
The net loss for the fourth quarter 2009 was impacted by several nonrecurring items research analysts typically exclude from their published estimates including an after-tax impairment at several Gulf of Mexico shelf properties of $24.1 million, an after-tax gain on the sale of properties of $8.5 million, an after-tax expense of $4.0 million relating to debt modification and an unrealized after-tax loss on derivatives of $10.1 million. Accordingly, net loss before these nonrecurring items, a non-GAAP measure, in the fourth quarter 2009 was $10.3 million or $0.20 per basic and diluted share. For the same metric in 2008, ATP recorded net income of $78.4 million or $2.21 per basic and $2.20 per diluted share. A reconciliation of non-GAAP net income is provided below:
Just an observation: Since reaching $3.05, TARM's High of Yr, on March 1st, TARM has fizzled... now down slightly over 20% from the High of Yr in only 11days.
Hmmm... reduces valuation arbitrage between TARM and TRGDm but not reassuring.
TELT action (volume/price pop) yesterday is not being repeated with similar action today.
Perhaps we were making our own market in TELT yesterday.
'peeker
GGI.v/GGIFF.pk: Bought a starter on the 22% downdraft today. Haven't looked hard at Garibaldi except to see that they own 6million sh of Paramount (PZG), which gives GGI.v value of about .20/share just in PZG stock.