IMHO: You sound like the captain of the Titanic pronouncing to passengers that icebergs will not be a problem. There are lots of old sayings that may pertain, like:
"the trend is your friend", or
"don't stand in front of a moving train", or
"better safe than sorry", or
"discretion before valor", or
"age before beauty", or
"stupid is as stupid does".
Trying to call a turn in the market is always risky business, especially when psychologically tied to the call (money being where the mouth is).
Getting ready to jump into a short position when the market has changed direction would be much more rational before the market has turned.
jmho,
'peeker
MILKY WAY over Devil's Tower