Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
doug
I see. Interesting. Seems to be a promising strategy. Many keep 64-bit drivers secretly. K.
paul
Newcastle had initial shipments in Q4/03. Slightly ahead of schedule. And, you got it right, it is a product.
K.
doug
Same applied for W2K, for W95, for Windows3.1 and so on.
But I dont remember an animal like an OEM release.
K.
doug
It works with the same drivers. K.
doug ok K. eom
doug
Why dont you use the preview or the Serverbeta for a while?
K.
doug
How many OEMS are out there? What is an OEM? Who would decide which hardware would be supported? Cans of worms to be opened in various dimensions. If it would make any sense at all we would have seen such an animal from MS before.
K.
sgolds
Of course, the power users are already installing the Beta, so they are just as happy that they can continue using free versions.
From your posting I can savely conclude you are neither using the preview nor Server2003beta.
K.
doug
Support the good stuff so that 99% of folks with current AMD64 systems can run it
I would thind there are as many opinions what the good stuff is as there are users. Changing on a daily basis. I, for example have some exotic USB-serial adapter and could not use my AMD-64 based noisebook if there were no support for it from the OS. That is what I consider good stuff, as I need it. See what I mean?
K.
doug
For the legal part, I was talking about your proposal for an OEM release. If they do it for HPQ, IBM could easily sue them if they wanted to.
K.
doug
Thanks lot. I see what you mean.
You read revisions as different Cores if the first letter changes.
I read revisions as modifications of the very same Core, whatever the letters might mean.
Lessee, its not a question if but when somebody opens the case of an AX, then we will know.
K.
doug
As for many thousands, there are probably far fewer necessary to cover the most common and most recent hardware, and that may be sufficient for launch.
Well, go count the entries in the XP driver database.
Even if you cut off a lot of legacy, you would not want XP-EE64 to leave much hardware currently available out, would you?
K.
sgolds
The best way to get the necessary drivers is to make a firm release date for the operating system.
Well, thats another chicken and egg thing. You need the drivers first to see if they work before you release your OS.
There is a third option for MS to release a desktop version of 64-bit: They could do an OEM release with a defined set of required hardware.
Would you consider buying such a system, loosing the ability of adding any component you could think of which might be needed later?
Even if your anwers would be yes, Microsoft would be nuts to release such an animal. It would make it one friend and many enemies. Couple of them would sue MS as well, or force it to do the same for them.
K.
doug
"From the AMD specs, you can determine that AX parts use the DH7-CG core, as opposed to SH7".
Could you point me to the source of this?
K.
yb
I'm disappointed that Newcastle finally came only 5 months before volume 90 nm (expected)
Could be just a premature emotion. Suggest you supress it until somebody removes the case and posts a picture of the AX-die. As a suggestion for a good read in the meantime: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0802130348/102-0805577-1692107?v=glance
K.
doug
Thanks for your thoughts and link. Now, from the timeframes you posted, whatever animal an "intermediate beta" is, the time between 45 days and four months is only 10 weeks. This does not match MSs common practice with every product they developed.
route64.net just makes clear that MS is concerned about the growing linux-ecosystem in serverspace. The interest they have is preventing softwaremakers to go this way. Therefore they have to communicate there is a MS-64-route available (very soon). Voila: route64.net, closer than you think makes perfect sense for a campaign to intend to direct mindshare and ressources to W64.
I dont know th "internal state" of MSWXP64. It is (more theoretically) possible that there is a nonpublic beta as we post. Could be most of the known issues are adressed already. In this case, driver support for a desktop OS is still poor. You would not argue everybody has drivers "internally" already, would you? It still will take considerable time and effort to align many thousands of these ducks in a row.
Bottomline: If i would consider to change my entry (which I dont), it would be more to H2 05.
Having said this, the time horizon i see is not a problem for AMD: The 64-bit story gains mindshare every day, creating demand for Athlon-64 for what AMD is able to deliver until next year.
K.
doug
"You'd think they would get it right"
You bet. They definitetely get it right finding the right words to make you think what they want you to think without stating anything wrong.
"To which newsgroups in particular are you referring?"
There is one each for the 2003Server-64 beta and for the desktop-preview open for everybody. Both are on the microsoft private server, but accessible with passwords published on the msdn-product-sites. (I am travelling currently, dont have them subscribed on my notebook). I am sure there is other groups as well, but these are closed shops. Anyway, the two I referred to will give you the picture of where things really are.
K.
doug
"To which newsgroups in particular are you referring?"
There is one each for the 2003Server-64 beta and for the desktop-preview. Both are on the microsoft private server, but accessible with passwords published on the msdn-product-sites. (I am travelling currently, dont have them subscribed on my notebook).
K,
doug
I take it as a misunderstanding. I can (in a best case scnenario) imagine a final release of Server2003-64EE late this year. At least this one is in beta-stage.
But there is no beta WXP-EE(64) out today afaik. Most web-gazettes mix all this up and take a preview as a beta as well. Which it is not. Plus, somewhat counterintuitively, a desktop OS is a far more complex animal than a server OS.
I would be very surprised if one beta and just one RC will be all what it takes to make this one ready for a final. Suggest to scan the relevant newsgroups to get an idea where things really are currently.
In essence, I consider my entry to be very, very optimistic. To have a WXP-EE64 final within a year from today is more a hope than a realistic expectation.
K.
Windows XP64 Date/Cost prediction contest:
MyName mm/dd/yy Upgrade Home=$DD Upgrade Pro=$DD
kpf 04/22/05 50 00
K.
mas
I doubt they will come even close to that figure for the current quarter, but thats pretty irrelevant: Stock markets look ahead.
I have no clue when the street will have more visibility for 2005 (or better said believes to have). Can happen every day - or only in October or even January.
K.
mas
Considering AMD share price isn't really going to take off for another six/nine months ...
U sure? K.
Smallpops
But customers like Weather.com's Agronow will be taking a serious look at Nocona and its successors. "If I had a comparable box between Intel and AMD, I would probably choose Intel,"
While he has not, he is an AMD customer.
By the way, refering to Noconas successors already gives an idea about his expectations for Nocona as well...
K.
cg
...IPF is taking sales where maximum performance on commercial and FP workloads and ability to scale upwards to 64+ CPU systems is most important.
Well, only if a cluster cannot do the job for ten percent of the cost.
Anyway, its a niche. Serving it does neither make money nor sense.
K.
doug
Then why did he say that initially, products would be 9 layer, to make for a straightforward transition from 130nm, and then new products, or re-layouts would go to 11?
The "straightforward transition" (read: plain shrink) is needed asap for GDPW-reasons to work the cost per die down which is necessary to penetrate the volume segments.
To maintain (and possibly) extend the performance lead in 2005, they need two more layers.
Reasonable to do it in two steps to get what you need when you need it.
Plus, in approaching an extremely challenging node with small and careful steps reduces complexity and by this means make results more precictable. Which is something what OEMs and tier-one custumers appreciate in these times .
From this viewpoint, I am sure the fact AMD communicates its 90nm manufacturing strategy at this time (which is very, very unusual for any semiconductor manufacturer) is a smart move. ;)
Now, looking at AMDs roadmap, I am not sure if their announced second generation 90nm process in H205 is the 11-layer-process or the 300mm process?
K.
sgolds
Paul asked the right questions after reading the article.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2885359
K.
Paul
I wonder if they plan on going to 11 metal layers during K8 generation, or if that's reserved for K9?
I understand its needed for the 200mm process already.
And how much time and yield issues will it add?
Timewise, it depends on if they are prepared for this in the expansion space of Fab30. If yes, nothing, if no, quite a bit, up to 10% percent waferstarts next year.
And yes, it will definitely increase yield-losses. But it would be misleading to say its like ten percent or any other linear figure. Adding 2 to the current exponent over the average line yields gives the better picture.
For an whole picture what adding two layers really means, take time into account: It will take roughly the same time as it took from Thoroughbred A to Thoroughbred B until 90nm will be scale better than 130nm does. But to prevent from any misunderstandings, the results wont be as they were then:
1. 130nm is far from being at the end of its cycle, it will still scale for a while.
2. If AMD ommunicates additional layers many months before shipping initial nine IC-layer volumes, they have been starting to work on it already. Initial 11-IC-layer products can be expected in H1 2005.
What exactly does "active pilot" mode mean?
As far as I understand, pilot production is running initial wafers on production schedules (instead of engineering wafers as rocket-lots)
K.
sgolds
"Great news".
U r kidding, aren't you?
K.
bobs10
IBMs issues could well have to do with immature 300mm equipment causing yield issues, although characteristics of the products are looking great.
For the Intel part, they dont suffer from yield issues at all as it looks for me. It is just not the products coming out which they want.
K.
HailMary
Hectors comment on your numbers would be:
You are too low. But I wont give you the numbers.
K.
MWDave
Lol. Certainly. It is not you missing something here, but me I was confused. Thanks for setting it straight.
K.
HailMary
The answer is they deferred some sales into Q2 to make Q2 look better
While there is other possible explanations for the increase of account receivable as well, i am inclined to follow you on this argument not only to make Q2 look better: AMD has reason to avoid showing inventories going down more than a tad because of the capacity-concerns of covering analysts on the CPU side of the business.
K.
Thanks very much indeed JJ
for hosting the Contest again, and in particular for the outstanding excellence in doing it!
Congratulations to _eco_ and b0g. Well done!
Klaus
I_banker
It appears that the big sellers have unloaded their positions.
Well, from my understanding of some inner context of investment-banking, it appears that the big sellers unload their customers positions today, [rectified by new analysis available], to have it available for taking onto own books.
K.
Combjelly
Around 2600, my wag.
And yes, I see a lot of blood below the line as well.
K.
Buggi
Thanks for posting it. Very, very good bla bla
K.
rupert
Nice one. Right on the spot.
K.
rupert
Although Don Clark is one of the sharper knifes in the journalist drawer and WSJ is undoubtedly influencing the street's perception , it is just one take of iNTELs presentation today.
Wallet-votes will tell how the street's perception is. Tomorrow, for the ones with a diarrhoe from it. Within days, for the fast digesters. Within weeks, for the majority.
K.
smooth2o
"Well, go further and complete your statement."
My statement is complete.
"You think they lied?"
No. They are smart enough to express whatever they want in a way that you would never be able to catch them for a blunt lie.
"Actually, what I heard was that inventory in Q2 could start building up thereby resulting in some writedowns."
Iirc, that was put on the table as a question of an analyst.
Iirc further, Andy answered it. I dont exactly remember what he said, because I did not buy the answer.
There is quite a lot of playground in the inventory valuations. Analysts know that pretty well, i assume. And they are obviously concerned about it for Intels inventories.
You can cover a lot there for a while, that is common practice in this industry, and its ok as long as you have reason to believe you can resolve issues (yields, binsplits, leakage, whatever) within reasonable timeframes.
Now, it is not impossible that Intel can resolve issues within a year or so. But, imho, it would be nothing short of a lucky bullseye.
K.
mas
"None of the analysts questioned them about Prescott availability but bought the excess Inventory story."
Nope. The guys asked about half a dozen questions about whats up with this inventory-buildup. It was pretty obvious they dont buy what was served, even if they look at it from another viewpoint than you do.
The chaps begin to ask tough questions and insist on it instead of just cheerleading.
Andy kept contenance, but Paul was obviously irritated by that - or maybe he just had a bad day anyway.
Well. While Intel is currently unable to manufacture strained silicon successfully, at least he is good in producing a strained atmosphere.
K.