Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Re: CTIC, it's just bailing by those playing the "preFDA" game.
Have you read the fda questions doc (not the old brief)? I almost expected them to ask "when did Bianco stop beating his wife".
Seriously, they are toast.
Re: CTIC synthetic long vs short
OK, you short the stock for $1. This gives you $1 in cash
You short the put for .55 (give or take)
You buy the call for .40 (give or take)
This leaves you 1.15 in your pocket and 3 positions.
If the price goes up, the put expires worthlessly. You buy the stock for $1 via the call and that covers you short.
If the price goes down, the call expires worthless but the holder of the put will make you buy a share from them at $1 and that covers your short.
All this only works because the short and options are not that liquid. Else somebody like wall would come in and do that with enough cash to drive the prices.
CTIC: P value question
In the FDA questions for ODAC they just came out with the numbers for FDA re-read of patient assessments in the Pix EXTEND trial.
4 patients in the Pix arm and 1 in the comparator arm were nixed. Making the numbers now 10/70 vs 3/70.
What is the P value for the hypothesis that Bianco and Co. are a scam?
Re: "how do you figure this..."
In jun one contract or the other excises, I get the stock at $1 which exactly covers the short I opened and it's cash.
I am left with the difference in the contracts, which was about +.15
It was the same even when CTIC was trading at other than $1, but it does make the numbers pretty this way.
Re: "The trouble with your suggestion (assuming a prohibition on anyone including the MM naked shorting) is that it breaks the link between the derivative and the underlying because you can't arbitrage between ..."
That is already broken in unshortable bio-crap
Take a look at CTIC
common $1
Jun $1 calls .30 - .40
Jun $1 puts .50 - .55
So I can short the common, short the puts and long the calls (1-1-1) for a net of about .15 regardless of price action.
Re MNTA stock price scenarios
I would make a bet with DD right now that
. In the sole generic case MNTA will trade less than he valuates it.
. In the dual case, MNTA will trade higher than he valuates it.
This is NOT a disagreement with DDs valuation, but an agreement with his sig line.
OT chipmunks LOL
I assume your jesting post was just an opportunity to post a nice photo.
But seriously, how many times to we need to hear both sides of this debate presenting an argument identical to (or inverted from) what you just said, and the media reports it as if it has any significance.
This country is regressing wrt public belief in (and understanding of) science.
OT: Motion, Provenge availability
You might want to check in to DNDN's distribution method being used for the mfg ramp up phase. I would not be surprised if you need to get your dad connected with an "authorised dealer" in advance in order to get in line.
I also seriously doubt they will go off label and allow use before keto stops being effective.
Re: CRXX royalty
Well, call me blind. I looked for this several months ago and could not find it. From deep in the merger papers:
"If Exalgo is approved by the FDA, Neuromed will receive an additional milestone payment of $30.0 million which could potentially increase up to $40.0 million, and tiered royalties on Mallinckrodt’s sales of Exalgo ranging from a mid to high-single digit percentage of net sales. Mallinckrodt will continue to pay these royalties on net sales for as long as it is selling Exalgo although the royalty rate will be reduced upon the earlier to occur of generic competition or June 11, 2024. Neuromed also entered into a development and transition services agreement with Mallinckrodt, pursuant to which Neuromed will perform certain clinical development and regulatory activities through the date of FDA approval of Exalgo. These activities are at Mallinckrodt’s cost and expense, capped at $16.0 million. "
So it IS tiered, and I assume "from a mid to high-single" means that is a low and it goes up from there.
Thanks also, Jesse
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001193125-09-212073.txt&FilePath=\2009\10\22\&CoName=COMBINATORX%2C+INC&FormType=424B3&RcvdDate=10%2F22%2F2009&pdf=
Re: MNTA puts
"has anyone considered buying some puts here in case the price drops? TIA"
What month? What price?
Just buying puts "in case the price drops" is a loser's bet (I previously had written sucker's bet, but wanted to practice my spelling ).
There can be reasons to buy them, but you need to be more specific.
You might be too heavy long in the stock and need to de-risk it a little. IMHO it is generally better just to diversify out some.
You might know the time-line (or at least think you do). But since DD has no good guess on this one I doubt anybody not in the FDA does.
People always underestimate the ability of stock just to meander around where it is.
So, for me that answer is a clear no.
Re: MDVN MDV3100 I would agree with you if that is the real target, but I would assume they are just trying for the low hanging fruit in that trial and would really want to go up against bicalutamide etc.
RE: MDVN MDV3100 vs. SAs cabazitaxel
I doubt these would compete. MDVNs drug is hormonal and would be used earlier than a taxane. FWIW.
AFAIK, the CRXX royalty rate for Exalgo is undisclosed.
Not even a hint.
Re: "I find it interesting that mdvn trade 3x its normal volume today and it was up 5.1%"
Yeah, it's an even playing field.
Re: MON "The question is: An opportunity for whom?"
For whomever is best able to invent/market Roundup2 and the R2 ready seed to go with it.
That would seam to be Monsanto.
OT: MON Round-up resistant weeds
Not surprising, but the weeds are fighting back:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idAFN2623528420100226?rpc=44
I have to agree with a stupid sales saying here "It's not a problem, it's an opportunity"
==============================================================
Scientists said on Friday they have confirmed expanding weed resistance to a key ingredient in Monsanto's (MON.N)widely used Roundup herbicide, a troubling development for farmers and fresh fodder for Monsanto critics.
Kansas State University said scientists had found five kochia weed populations in western Kansas that have been confirmed to have become resistant to glyphosate.
Kochia, also called fireweed, is a drought-tolerant weed commonly found on land in the western United States and Canada where crops are grown and cattle are grazed.
"This complicates and may increase control costs for those growers who may have a resistance problem, but there are other herbicides," said Kansas State weed scientist Phil Stahlman.
Stahlman and other university researchers are recommending farmers use other herbicides to try to control the weeds.
============================================================
OT Re: "We were a Republic (rule of law), nowhere in the Declaration of Independance or The Constitution is a mention of Democracy. "
Definition of republic:
1) a state in which the supreme power rests in the body of citizens entitled to vote and is exercised by representatives chosen directly or indirectly by them.
Definition of democracy:
1) government by the people; a form of government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised directly by them or by their elected agents under a free electoral system.
2) a state having such a form of government: The United States and Canada are democracies.
Both have alternatives, but these are the most applicable to the usage in question.
Fairly clearly the US meets both definitions (though one could argue that be before the 17th we were not a true democracy, but the 17th is part of the Constitution).
You and Neil Boortz are somewhere between nit-picking and just plain wrong.
Re: disclosure
I honestly thought you were just being sarcastic there rkrw.
If the question is not important, why is an analyst for a large firm asking it?
Just because there are quite a few idiot shareholders out there does not mean that that companies should be allowed to just give the info privately.
This is by far most serious disclosure issue within the present system here in the US. And it it is trivially easy to fix.
"Sorry, I can't answer that right now. Send me an email an I will make an open reply"
Call it Reg. ED (electronic disclosure)
It's not friggen difficult.
Re: BioMedReports
If they get shut down by the SEC, will I get my subscription refunded?
Seriously, this is so damn common across all the volatile stocks, it is not just a bio. issue.
And I am certain the SEC will not act.
Hell, will they act on the following:
Confernce Call:
Analyst: some long question
CEO: That's a difficult answer, I will get with you after the call Bob.
Regulation FD is a farce.
OT: re floblu's 79% interest rate CCs
Seriously this is not a high rate in this universe.
Look at what the pawn shops, tag loans, and payday loan outfits are doing.
A bookie charges 10%/month (compounded monthly). Care to work those numbers?
There is a reason why many religions consider this a true sin.
Re: CTIC 20% gain.
"2) The power of the options traders who now missed out on the 20th of this month. All their previous positions would be in trouble."
All option positions have 2 sides. I suspect more of the intelligent cash was on the right side.
"1) Investors feel because the FDA cancelled todays meeting, the investors feel CTIC should automatically be approved."
Yes, CTIC investors enjoyed getting snowed
A serious guess:
Short interest decding the carry cost was no longther worth it.
Other guess:
Elasticity of feline/asphalt collisions.
Re: The ODAC snow out.
Given that both drugs look 100% toast, I rate the chance of this meeting simply not being rescheduled as about 80%
How common it is to have 2 such statistically crappy NDAs up on the same day?
To be honest, I thought the CTIC meeting would be more to discourse a forward path to a trial that could actually help on the cardio issue (which is a tough issue trial wise). After reading the FDA brief, I think it was to put a knife in.
Re: CTIC ODAC postponement
This actually could help CTIC case somewhat.
"Given these uncertainties in the assessment of response, some scans
will be evaluated by an independent radiologist in January of 2010."
So they could substantially clear the second biggest issue for approval.
Now if some bright PhD could just rewrite the clinical trial statistic book in the next few weeks they might just get thumbs up for a commercially worthless drug (which is the case is Pix hasn't solved the cardio issue).
Re: "Are the endpoints you are using and reporting exactly the same as specified in the SPA?".
I would suggest you change that question to "Did the trial follow the SPA protocol". There are many other ways somebody could pull the same stunt w/o changing the endpoint.
I still have absolutely no idea why GPCB pulled that stunt though [they broke the SPA early, it wasn't a post hoc job].
I guess they must be the type guys that would spit in the face of a cop that pulls them over for speeding.
Re: Drugs from "extreme" organisms
I could add a host of drugs such as Lovenox that come from arguably the most extreme organism on the planet.
Homo sapiens.
I doubt it will help wrt your assignment (though you might get originality points). I will seriously stick to my argument though.
. Clearly at the extreme on intelligence (despite the way it seams )
. Able to exist across a broad range of environments.
. Arguably has more impact on the global ecosystem than any since fish
learned to walk.
Look at it this way, at least this would best the googlers if you do it right. And it is real easy to find the drugs.
Re: SPPI in-licensing deal, expensive.
Going for a drug that is already in P3 is costing them a pretty penny. Not the usual strategy for a virtual bio.
I might speculate that Raj either has major cojones or has lost it.
Hopefully they are not paying much in milestones for approval on the PTCL indication, as they will barely make a penny on that (unless they expect significant off-label use).
Re: HDVY, Sounds like they are just a patent troll.
Is there any reason to believe that the "licenses" are just not minor payouts that are cheaper than going to court?
Re: Value of seeing SAPs
I guess it's each to his own, but I certainly would like to understand exactly what is nailed down in these.
Clark,I have searched IHUB's GNVC board w/o luck. Any clues (even an approx. date would work).
How does somebody know exactly what happened with Satraplatin if we don't know what these things look like?
OT: Check the daily chart on RPRX!
and make certain you include volume.
Those penny stock scammers are just sooooo funny!
Re: "SPPI cans ozarelix for BPH:"
The only question here was the zebra. This drug was DOA.
The good new for SPPI fans is:
. Every month EOquin gets a month closer. It's now under 2 years and counting.
. They sold a bunch of stock for cash in the funny times. Bunch of angry longs at what I thought was perhaps Rav's best actions to date.
. Maybe Zev can do something in sales. DD, do your zebras fly?
. Fusilev will keep the lights on. Really. Of course they switched to LED lighting last year and the ongoing cost is almost nil.
It was good to see them pull the plug though.
No position now, but might get back in a little just in case it goes up to $7 or so as we wait out the 2 years.
OT Medchal, wrt US debt
The US debt will be considered risk free from a default perspective as long as it is denominated only in US dollars. That's just one of those facts. Worst case is the Fed just uses it's magic checkbook.
It is true that if the US starts having to monetize the debt, the dollar would become inflated and thus the value of the debt would decrease, but we were talking defaults and credit ratings, not exchange rates.
Quiz: NVS + ketchup = Joe Jimenez
Re "VAR: I find it hard to believe that the medical physicists described in the article are actually physicists rather than technicians with a fancy job title."
I suspect you are right, likely just a BS with some E&M courses.
But that does not change my point at all. A trained tech will be more careful than an expert in this type situation.
Back a few years ago when I used to be a slave running R&D for a small tellcom mfg., I often hung out with the tech support guys. Partially because they had real customer feedback (better than the sales tools) and also because they would drink beer.
Several times an issue would come up where I would say "just do X" and they would still test it in the lab, while if I was hands on with the customer I would just have done it.
They are more careful because they have no reason to trust the systems that they really do not understand. So I's and T's.
And if we were talking lives, not phone calls, I would not trust my own logic. Check and recheck would be the plan.
Re: "It was customary — though not mandatory — that the physicist would run a test before the first treatment to make sure that the computer had been programmed correctly. "
This is truly absurd on two levels.
I assume the software is on a computer used to setup the accelerator, and not actually control it real time. If so, the crashing is not that bad, as long as you verify the setup.
But VAR made a huge mistake in not insisting that the verification be mandatory.
And I completely fail to understand how someone with a physics degree could be so stupid/ignorant as to not realize that the setup may not have been loaded when the system crashed in the process.
I understand that mistakes happen, but this is way past what one would expect.
Re: New option tickers
Another case of a good concept but executed by idiots who can't think
Look at Jbog's example symbol:
MNTA 05 22 2010 20.00 C
This would work vastly better as
MNTA05 20.00 C 2010
Consider screen real-estate, and what is most important. Since you are often looking within your own account, most would recognise any ambiguity either 1 or 8 characters earlier.
Yes, occasionally you might have both leaps and calls, but that is vastly less common that having contracts at different excises.
One could argue if the strike price should be before the month, but I would want month first for several reasons, most importantly in case I need to act soon.
But why would anybody have day in there? Do we have contracts now that do not strike on the third Friday?
I know this sounds picky, but when you are making such high impact changes, and the issue is this simple, it does seam like one should get it right.
RE: ACOR and ELN's royalty
Unless there has been a change since way back, Elan gets a royalty in addition to the manufacturing rights (presumably at some defined mark-up).
ELN had their hands on this drug a long time ago. I believe the SR technology is still ELNs.
On ex-US sales, Biogen pays Elan whatever is due, so ACOR keeps that payment stream.
Re: FiOS voice VoIP vs. packet switched
You are confusing packet switched vs VoIP here.
Yes, you cary VoIP over packet networks. But that does not make all packet networks VoIP.
Almost all backbone traffic now is packet switched. But you can dedicate a "circuit" over that, and get the same reliability as circuit switched.
FiOS carries VoIP, but IS not VoIP.
Re: "Fiber offers a higher bandwidth than 64 K."
There is no reason at all to use more than 64K, as you will not get it through the PSTN.
I assume Verison is the local PSTN provider where DD is. So there is no reason for the circuit to do anything other than get merged in at the pedistal as just another voice channel.
Maybe they are playing some weird pricing game and selling VoIP over it, but there is no technical reason for this.
Re: FiOS voice quality
On the voice quality vs. analog, you are going over a 64k dedicated digital connection on fiber (not VoIP), so the quality is better.
In many, even most, cases it is not detectable. The reason is that for most customers you are only analog until the wires hit the green box at the corner. So unless you have garbage wires between there and your house it is the same.
Short answer, it matters very little.
But if it is not free, why even have any home phone service?
OT Re: "Will healthcare stocks rally tomorrow, or was Brown’s win already priced in? Comments welcome."
This is just way so over-hyped.
If I was a day trader I would be sitting with finger on the SELL button 'till about 9:45. Press and cover at mid-afternoon.
On a semi-related story I think Krudlow set a new standard here. He has called the Tue. market ralley a huge sign of support for the tea-cupers. I have never heard him call the HUGE surge over the last 6 months a sign of support for Obama.
[EDIT] to make clear, I think the market is little effected by either.