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Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hi TAB, I just got through looking at TXN, during that time period TXN has mostly been a growth stock. It has had 5 stock splits during that time frame. They were was 3:1, 2:1, 2:1, 2:1, 2:1, They now have a total of 1.7B shares out there. I think they will become a cycle stock, but with that many shares, they may no longer have the volatility that AIM is looking for. With Growth stocks a B&H should beat AIM. With Growth stocks, I thank the NAIC method, would work good. The book Starting and Running a Profitable Investment Club by Thomas E. O'Hara and Kenneth S. Jankf, Sr describes this method well.
Bullrider, way to go you have solved the problem, and with out any programming!! I here by approve of the 15 min edit function with out qualms! If anyone is running in to the types of problem I talked about in my last message. Remember what Bullrider just said about copying and pasting, from the message that got you all hot and bothered!
I, get what you are saying Bob, Now for me there is no problem I type slow and I spell check (using Hot Lingo) most of the time. But evidently their are some hot fingered people on here. What they are saying is that one person will say something that gets the second person up set. The second will type a hot reply back. At this time the first person will go back and change his message, to a nice message, and the end result is that it looks like the second person attacked the first person.
There is a worse possibly that could be going on. If you have any ex submariner they can agree with this, on long crews we get bored, very bored, and we start playing games with people. Take three people, two don't like each other, the third person appears to be a friend to both. He tells one person one thing and the other person the opposite thing, pretty soon these two people, have gone from not liking to hating each other. Mean while the third person is having a good time watching the show. The only way to calm down the situation is to get the first two people together, and get them to comparing notes.
Here is a interesting plan called Invest% http://www.directinvesting.com/moneypaper/invest/index.cfm
It varies how much you invest based on the 52 week hi and low stock prices, the percent varies between 50% and 150%. It does not have a method of selling stock.
At one time this web site http://www.dripadvisor.com/index.asp had a formula based on the 200 day MA when the web site was sold they did a face lift, and removed the formula from the site. The formula was roughly the 200 day ma divided by the stock price. This would give you a multiplier that you would multiply with your normal investment amount. It also did not have a selling plan.
Nether of these two plans, provide you with a way of coming up with the additional cash. Nor would they be able to lower average cost quickly in a short lived crash or bear market.
One of the things that twinvest does do is provide you with a way of coming up with addional cash, for when you want to make a larger investment.
Yes matt, I thank he got that part. Grin! But I was more concerned about if the auto update of the ads could be what is causing messages to disappear while in preview mode. One of you thought that it may have been due to having another window open at the same time and updating the other window. The web site I sent you to look at Nonags.com I believe has a separate ad page that is called up inside a table, the size of the ad. The ad page auto updates, that maybe the window that is causing the problem.
About the 15 min edit, I see that it works differently than I thought it did. I think that 15 min is the right time period. But I think it should work differently. Here is the way I think it should work, you type a new post, or a reply. When you submit your post, It does not yet go to the Group, it is in holding, no one else can read it yet. You see the post with the 15 min edit function. As long as you don't leave this page you can edit your post. If you click previous or the link for the group or any other link, you are done editing, no more time left. This way you get a edit time of from zero to 15 min.
Bob, matt Here are the messages that describe the odd behavior. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=273921
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=273954
It is hard to understand him, you may want to send him a email, he can talk normal English if he wants. I sent you a email a few days ago, about having the ad's auto update, this may be what is causing the problem with the preview/edit page problem. If a ad updates while in preview, it could mess things up. As you gave me a upgrade I can't check out the ad's myself, not sure if you put my suggestion in to action or not. If you did then that could be it.
Poll:
Q1: For what reason do you come to this board?
A: I wanted to see the Questions about Investorshub, and the answers to the questions
Q2: Do you think a spin-off board where Bob and I host more of an off-topic discussion would be a good idea, thus "banning" all of this non-Q&A discussion?
A:I am starting to think so, About two days ago I saw that one of the posters in the Aim group had a very hard time posting it seems that he's message had disappeared three times in a roll. In other messages he talked of his mouse changing to a pointer and a hourglass. On Feb 7, I sent a email to Bob and Matt, I was concerned that the site may have a money flow problem, one of my suggestions was to have The ad's auto update. This could be causing the problem. As I feel I may be responsible. I have been looking at all Questions from 7 Feb to date, to see If anyone else has been having problems. It has not been easy. I think I have gone through in excess of 600 messages, most of them were not Q & A!
Q3: Do you think it'd be cool to have an awards program...give away some kind of prize to winner in each category?
A: Could be not sure.
Say Don, that does look interesting, I take it that is percent drop from 52 week high? Over here http://www.jjjinvesting.com/ Jeff has written a book that you can download, or read on the web. in chapter Two-a He talks about changing safe in a bear market. http://www.jjjinvesting.com/chap2a.htm worth looking at. Here is a list of valid tags http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=262790 I think you want to use fixed fonts for tables. Oh don't post any messages to that group. It is just for posting up dates.
OK, about Twinvest, If you don't know how it works, the best way is to read Mr. Lichello's Aim book, or go here http://www.aim-users.com/ . What are the faults of Twinvest, well first of, you make a Twinvest code that you use ever after. In Mr. Lichello example he started right in the middle of the range of the stock. If you are lucky you will too, if not you can try to find a better one. Now mr.L does recommend selling at 100%, but he did not give you a way to feed the money back into the stock. Tom Veale, did come up with the Idea that when you reach 100%, but are not ready to start Aiming the stock, that you would reset the code to what ever the current price is but not sell the stock. But if the stock takes a short but deep drop like in 1987, you may not have enough time to invest enough money in the stock to lower your average cost that much.
2mc, what stock did you have in mind, to test? I have done the one of the test you were talking of in a way. I used the data from the AIM $10,000 to $1,000,000 chart from the book, with Synchovest. I used a planed investment of 100, and then put $10,000 in cash and never gave it another dime. Did Synchrovest beat AIM yes and no. IF you used Mr lichello's Default settings then no. the reason is it never gets to 100% profit(sell point) before the stock decreases in price. However If you set the sell point lower,to 50% or so then you do get sells. I think the secret is That synchrovest sells off about 99% of it's stock at the sell point. Note if the stock keeps on going up you would feel pretty silly about it.
Concerning deep divers Both AIM and Synchrovest are normaly out of cash around 50 to 60% from the top. However there are ways to slow that down. one way that I like is to add a rule that no single buy will be greater than 50% of cash. normaly this rule will not come into play until you have a loss of 40%, so in normal times it will not be triggered.
Hi Muell, I think you are talking about the Aim spread sheet looking cool. My spread sheets are ugly to look at. If ypu can't get the Synchrovest spread sheet from Geocities, you should be able to get it from the, first Url, it should be the last message number 33 I believe. I think you have to a passport account. You get that for free.
Hi matt, do you have Excel? If you do you can get my free spreadsheet from the url in the header. you can get a free aim spreadsheet at http://www.aim-users.com/aimware.htm . I like for people to run their own test if posible. If you don't have excel, name a stock you would like to test, and I will see what I can do.
The way I have Synchrovest set up in my spread sheet, you have to set up a expected systematic buy amount, but this can be set low enough that it will not efect the results. also my spreadsheet can go ten years. I can get monthly data from moneycentra.com chart for as far back as 1985.
Tom, I hate to tell you this but I think that hundred dollar bill may be fake,I can't say for sure, it's been a long time since I've seen one. But if you blow the picture up! and look right down at where it says one Hundred Dollar It looks like someone faked some of the letters, I wouldn't spend it If I was you.
Say macinvestor, just thought I would let you know there is going to be a subscription increace soon. here is the link.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/sub_alert.html No need to reply.
Say TOM you may want to check this website out their free program is called MyTrader (it used to be called Internet Trader) What is the catch? the feed is delayed 15 min's, and you can not save a chart as a picture. They have all sorts of TA, they have a crude stock scanner built in, and you can save stock data as a .TXT file.
http://www.fongan.com/MT/mytrader.asp
Hi Don, glad to see you over here! If I understand you correctly, you would like to have A more Direct links to the spread sheets. I may be able to do that. By the way your links do work, but You have to have a MSN password account. I may end up moving them someplace else So we don't have to go through that. Got to think on it. I thank I have explaned DCA well enough for now. Would you like me to goin to Twinvest, or Value averaging next?
Editpad classic will do rot-13
Hi broderick, you said I think it was only $20, but it used to be free.
Just to be sure I went back to their web site. Here is what they have posted there.
What does Cacheman cost?
Cacheman's cost is dependent on the user:
1. Private/Educational user
The registration fee for Cacheman is $10. Since most users cannot afford $10, Cacheman has no disabled features and no time limit. If you really cannot afford the shareware fee you are allowed to use Cacheman as Freeware. All updates for registered users will be free even if we should be forced to change the license to Shareware only with the next major release.
Now in order to get tech support you do have to pay $10 for it.
Here is some more interesting stuff on DCA. In her book Practical Formulas for Successful Investing by Lucile Tomlinson, Mrs. Tomlinson has a chart that shows how long it would take for a DCA plan to reach 40% profit, the time period varied from 2 1/2 years to 10 1/2 years long, most were about 5 years long. She seemed to be recommending stopping the plan at that point, as she goes on to say that after reaching 40% the plan tended to just follow with the market. Another thing she said was that If one were to combined a DCA plan with a Constant ratio plan one could get greater profits.
Just to let you know, there is at least one copy of Super Power Investing in the library inter loan system. I borrowed it when I made my spreadsheet.
Is it not amazing how a book you liked so much that you loaned it to a friend or brother disappears! I loss my copy of Super Power Investing to one of my brothers that way!
Hi Grabber, I am thinking that to minimize risk with stocks, one should have at least 10 stocks. If you use a minimum of $10k for each stock then that comes to $100k for minimum portfolio size.
By the way, I live in Krum Texas, just west of Denton. I think that makes four texans here!
I have set up a board here called Systematic Investing group (SIG) http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=966
I plan on Discussing DCA,Twinvest,VCA, and Synchrovest in that order. Every one is invited to come and join in. I do expect some flack when I start in on Twinvest. I first read the first edition of RL's AIM book in 1979, it had no Twinvest in it, As I was looking for something better than DCA, I started looking for Synchrovest, I found it in a used book store. When RL's 2ed edition of his AIM book came out with Twinvest, I quickly bought it. Even though twinvest by the book beats Synchrovest by the book for one cycle, I have always liked Synchrovest better. There are excel spreadsheets for free on the link.
When the weather gets better we will have to set up a DFW AIM/Synchrovest/Twinvest meeting with charts!
PS:My ICQ number is 9740875 if you are using it, you have to request to be added, be sure to let me know you are from the AIM usergroup!
Hi Dik, you wrote,Options is probably not what you want to go for if you have chosen the 'ease' of AIM, at least I don't.
What Tom Veale (Aim guy) did not say about options, is that he has sold them, a very different risk, than buying them.
AIM itself is a good method to increase profit, but not really a method to reduce risk. The highest risk around is that your stock goes down and down and doesn't come back anymore. AIM followed to the heart means that one continues buying that stock, i.e. Increasing the loss!
This is the risk you take with any single stock, no mater how you invest in it. Mr. Lichello says one of the strong points of AIM is that You decide before buying a stock how much you are willing to risk in that single stock. Yes after many years of Aiming a stock, you could end up putting many thousands of dollars in a stock that has bit the dust. But what you have lost out of your own pocket will only be what you put in it many years before. The rest will be the markets money.
If you only have a small amount of money, I would say stay with mutual funds until your portfolio is large enough to support investing in single stocks.
Maybe Tom can tell us how big our portfolio needs to be before going into single stocks.
Hello to the board, If you have from windows 95 to ME then you need to use Cacheman you can get it here. http://www.outertech.com/
Hello to the board, If you have from windows 95 to ME then you need to use Cacheman you can get it here. http://www.outertech.com/
EZ glad to have you on board
Hi Muell, glad to have you on board, hope you like it.
Let me try to explain what I mean by DCA having inherent problems built in it.On the url are links that explain it better than I can, but they are on if you should DCA in to a stock over 12 months or Buy at once! I am more interested in what someone is doing with a 401k, most people try to max out their 401k, they put in $100 and the company puts in $40, or what ever percent. Most people get several mutual funds, a bond fund or two, and a money market fund to pick from. They put most of their money in the mutual funds, a little amount in the bond fund and none in the money market fund.They put a set amount into each fund no matter what the fund is doing (DCAing). I think there is a better way! Ok back to the problems of DCA. Lets say you are just starting out the first two months.The first month the fund is $15, and the next month only $10. The first month you invest $100 and get 6.66 shares and your average cost is $15. The next month the stock is at $10 and your 6.66 shares are only worth $66.66, a loss of -33.33%. Now what happens when you add the $100 for the second month? $100 divided by $10 is 10 shares, for a total of 16.66 shares Worth $166.66. Now what is our percentage of loss? $166.66 minus $200 divided by $200 equals -16%loss, we have still loss the same amount of money, it just looks better. What about our average cost, well that has gone down as well. It was $15, it now is $200 divided by 16.66 shares, equals $12 a share, so once the fund recovers to $12 we will be even and ready for a profit. I know, you are thinking I thought he said DCA had some problems. It does, on to the next example. Lets say you have been investing for a year ($1200) and have a average cost of $15, 80 shares. And now the price drops to $10, again you have a loss of 33% your 80 shares are now worth only $800. Now what happens when we add that $100 to it? The $100 buys 10 shares, so we now have 90 shares. We have invested a total of $1300 in 90 shares worth $900. Our loss is now only $900 minus $1300 divided by $1300, equals -30%loss.It did not get reduced nearly that much. What about the average cost, well it went down but not as much as before, $1300 divided by 90 shares equals $14.44 average cost. In this example DCA did not do as well as in the first example, why not. It is a mater of ratios. In the first example we had $100 and added $100 to it, we added 100% to it, or doubles the amount invested. In the second example we had $1200 and added only $100 to it, we added only 8.33% to it. If we could have added a larger amount to it would have done better. The next question is where will we get the extra money to do that we were already investing at maximum each month. If you have excel you can see this in my spread sheet DCAGainLoss.xls just stick in your own stock prices, and the amount of money to invest each month. Play with it and see what the graphs do.
Hi Bernard glad to see you. I just updated the info box. There is a Url where you can get some free spread sheets.
Let me be straight here, it is my opinion that Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) has inherent problems built in to it.
Also let me say that I have never bought any stock or mutual funds.
Also I only have layman's info on 401k's, or Ira's.
I do conceder myself good at math, and I can make rough spreadsheets in Excel.
Tom and company, you may want to read Day Trading on the Edge by Leslie N. Masonson. Chapter 11 Keeping your trading profits out of the Government coffers by Ted Tesser, CPA President of Waterside Financial Services is the most interesting part. It talks about starting your own business. The business of trading He also talks about VEBA's Voluntary Employee Benefit Association. Once you have it set up you can deduct much more than you normal can on your taxes. The only requirement for the trader classification is you have substantial trades, but congress did not put any numbers on it. He does have a web page where you can input data into a form and he will get back to you and let you know if he thinks you qualify. Sorry I forgot to bookmark it. He has also written several tax books also. For the larger Aimers It may be worth your time to see if you qualify
If you get a email with a attatchment called CFGWIZ32.exe do not open it! It is ether a trogan hourse or a new virus program. If it is the trogan horse program someone is trying to hack into your computer. If it is the virus program, it can distroy your computers flash bios. making it unbootable! Ether way don't open it!
PS: There is suppost to be a CFGWIZ.exe on you computer in the windows\system directory.
Freeware, here are some that I have used. First, to help speed up the internet here are two small programs. What they do is put web addresses and IP numbers in your Host file, which is in your windows directory. In the very old days of the internet there was no DNS server, if you wanted to go any where you had to set it up in a host file. Your internet browser still, looks first in this file for the IP number. If the address of your favorite sites are there, it will save you 2-3 seconds at least. I use the first program Webquicker to add sites to the host file. A problem with using a host file is if the site moves, you will get a server not found error message. When I get that message or once a week if not sooner I use the second program CIP V5.00 to up date all the addresses in the host file. It does this very fast.Here is a url for Webquicker. Hope I did this right! http://elmo.winsite.com/free/freeutil/page16.html Here is the url for CIP500 http://www.simtel.net/pub/pd/35603.html
To make your Windows OS more stable you need Cacheman, the latest version is buy it if you can afford it.Here is that url
http://www.outertech.com/
And last but not least is my favorite Picture viewer, did I say picture viewer, not by a long shot! This baby is awesome for a free program, and you cannot keep up with his updates,just about a new one a month! It is called IrfanView. Here is its url
http://www.irfanview.com/ Thats all for now! Oh that spell-checker works real nice! And the edit feature!
Hi Rien, in the example, If one was to do it in two operations what you would do is sell all your stock, and then buy for the month. What I did was calculate how many stocks I was going to buy, and leave that many stocks in the account. At this point the average cost should go up to the current price of the stock. Not sure if I showed you that in the example. By combining the sell and monthly buy, you save one commission cost.
Say Tom, there are two other AIM boards on here, you mite want to drop a message letting them know we are here. they are under stock clubs one is in long term, the other one is in market trends and strategies. They sound lonely.