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I am not sure what fraction of orthopedic procedures are done at specialized centers versus at hospitals. Does your 75% refer to hospital settings or all settings?
Diamond Princess cruise ship.
Do you see a repeat of China's experience here at US hospitals? ie almost all resources devoted to Covid-19 patients?
BTW - I lump VCEL into ZBH/SYK/SNN group because it is an adjacent market (younger people with bad knees but not bad enough for TKR). Smaller market - around 1/10th the size of TKR is what company is targeting.
Not sure how that ends fear in people. IMO fear ends when people get tired of panicking and find acceptance that covid-19 is not going away and that ~99.8% will survive it. In a normal year, the world gains 50M in population.
Texas federal judge threw out Texas officials' attempt to override CDC quarantine procedures. Wife of friend and others DP with no positive tests going home tomorrow and probably staying home for a while. Friend is awaiting 3rd negative test results before release so that represents a span of 6 negative days. These CDC tests are slow. These people started their cruise on Jan.12th. What an ordeal.
The China satellite NO2 image published in BBC article has very good correlation with where major coal plants are located. There were also anecdotal reports from China that the air is unusually clear.
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/china-conflict-coal-fired-plants-water
Thx. Upstream slide 6 wrt Permian showing plateaued production post 2030 likely optimistic given decline treadmill. As always. biggest uncertainty is nominal oil pricing used in models. Downstream slides are like an after thought. ESG slides show they are already using renewables to run operations in w Texas and central CA and lifting costs are dropping - no surprise there. Just not very much and certainly not enough to cover all the operations. Both need to be 200 MW+ with excess fed to utilities for revenues. Stock is priced for $60/bbl brent and no demand upsets.
That's probably the reason CDC went with every other day instead of 24 hrs for DP returnees. And what does mildly positive mean? My understanding is that they are still test kits short. IE there are way more samples waiting to be tested. IE DP friend I referred to has had 6 samples already and only 3 results have came back with 3 waiting to be tested. Quarantine is just not going to work when we are short something so basic as testing kits and transmissible period is ~2-4 weeks and there are already thousands walking around not knowing they are infected according to Scott Gottlieb's comments yesterday on cbs face the nation. Again good news is that vast majority don't get sick enough to even know something could be different with their colds. IMO I agree with the Statnews article experts that were interviewed 4 weeks ago - this will become seasonal but this first wave will be bad for some while most will build immunity.
Texas state officials decided CDC criteria for release from quarantine, two successive negative tests for samples taken 24 hrs apart (for DP people samples taken every other day), is not good enough and will not release DP passengers that met CDC criteria. There is going to be a legal battle given some lawyers from big firms getting trapped by this. IMO virus is out and roaming so it is counterproductive as this will drive down self reporting for folks that get "not bad enough" symptoms.
CCL - Diamond Princess petri dish synopsis. Should be able to derive some statistics on infection and mortality rates due to unique circumstances. The much larger petri dish has been Wuhan. The ship's infection rate was ~20% although spread through food service was suspected according to friend that tested positive on ship (in Tx. now and due to be released from quarantine soon). Wife of friend was surely exposed, as would most of those that flew together with positive tests, tested negative. 6 have died or ~1% of infected. No specific age distribution data on infections and mortality but cruises then to most popular with the 55+ crowd.
If the big petri dish of Wuhan has a similar infection rate. There would be ~2M infected folks and the reported China infection stats are way under actual probably due to lack of symptoms and testing kits. The good news is that the mortality rate is much lower than reported also - something like 0.1-0.2% using 2M as number of infected.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/02/28/six-people-from-the-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-have-now-died-from-covid-19-after-quarantine-failure
One measures waste heat and the other NO2 via fossil fuel burning so there may not be a discrepancy. If NO2 emissions is tied to electrical generation via coal burning and not O&G burning for electricity, then the Ningbo waste heat measurement would be an indication that transport fuels will be the first to show recovery in economic activities. NO2 would be a good proxy of the rate of recovery for non-transport activities and we will need to see dirty air once again.
MS portfolio manager that sold techs before rout has some thoughts about markets and China.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-01/a-morgan-stanley-manager-who-sold-before-rout-says-he-s-buying
China - refinery and downstream back on line according to satellite photos. See pictures regarding Ningbo.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/01/c_138830918.htm
Covid-19 The most likely outcomes.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/
It's probably as contagious as the common cold and we are already living with it on the west coast if not the east coast. A doctor friend told me a month ago that the local hospital was packed with flu patients and the assumption then was that it was type A influenza. Pilot friend told me yesterday that domestic flights are full although he had to kick one passenger off a flight because of flu symptoms. Airline offered to comp hotel and meals but he apparently kept his mouth shut and flew on another flight. It is here and spreading but most don't get sick enough to see a doctor. Our president need to communicate rationality and no need for panic instead of "hoax". Competence is required asap.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-28/california-reports-second-coronavirus-case-of-unknown-origin
What is the change in EV if you don't mind looking those numbers up? thx.
ENI - Expects their boep production to peak in 6 years then decline. During the next 6 years though, NG will rapidly replace crude oil as they are the discoverer of Mozambique NG fields and will see significant production growth there. Also out of EU, TOT is competing hard with RDS for offshore UK wind rights. Wants to be at 25 GW renewables in a decade. If recollection serves, NEE is around 5 GW currently.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-28/eni-sets-tougher-emission-targets-as-investors-step-up-pressure
Pandemic simulation model from last year - Gates foundation at top of link. Covid-19 mortality numbers are nowhere near the simulation model numbers. After WH decided pandemic team is no longer needed in 2018, Gates tried to wake them up and met with Trump. Singapore effort shows most can recover if healthcare infrastructure is in good shape.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/04/27/bill-gates-calls-on-u-s-to-lead-fight-against-a-pandemic-that-could-kill-millions/
CVX really dodged a bullet in retrospect.
TM - not standing still in autonomous. They have 2 JVs now. First one with existing Japanese supplier Denso. Just announced yesterday JV with pony.ai of China. Pony also works with Hyundai.
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-denso-self-driving-connected-hardware-joint-venture/
https://www.scmp.com/tech/start-ups/article/3052407/toyota-invests-us400-million-ponyai-bringing-self-driving-start-ups
Minimally invasive would include liposuction component to remove ablated fat tissue. Non-invasive would have no penetration of skin and ablated fat is resorbed by body over time.
Earlier than 21st century. 1986-87 oil price crash (over supply) resulted in some cuts if recollection serves. There is a difference then, demand was still under secular growth.
https://books.google.com/books?id=wuYCAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA16&dq=oil+companies+cut+dividend+in+1987&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjwuvG_xfLnAhWRIDQIHT49A4gQ6AEwAHoECAAQAg#v=onepage&q=oil%20companies%20cut%20dividend%20in%201987&f=false
CUTR/INMD/VERO - CUTR body sculpting product doing well. It is non-invasive like VERO's product. When asked about impact of Covid-19, CEO's opinion is that he doesn't anticipate material impact. WRT supply chain, majority of components sourced from USA. IMO, non-invasive will take market share from invasive over time even if Covid-19 doesn't go pandemic. Perhaps faster if it does.
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/02/27/cutera-cutr-q4-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspx
It's been a while but I seem to recall a temporary case of dividend cuts.
You have to go back further in time when oil prices fell below opex/barrel. It will depend how close we get to that during this cycle and the economic outlook.
EU oil majors in renewables. Scorecard.
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-solar-industrys-new-power-player-oil-majors
ZBH/SYK/SNN - all reacting to Covid-19 uncertainty after initial positive Q4 report reactions. What are your thoughts wrt to procedure volume for artificial joint replacements procedures for the remainder of the year in the USA and EU?
VW - amazing that problems still have not been solved. It is not just BA that lacks software talent. It is also compartmentalization since they manage to make the eTron and Taycan. Perhaps the software in the latter two are just kluges whereas the ID.3 is a completely new.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-rival-volkswagen-id-3-cautionary-tale/
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-killer-vw-id3-software-problems/
Being the biggest gas producer in the US hasn't helped.
VCEL - Q4 ER slides. Correction - Epicel grew low double digits on annual basis although Q4 YOY change was flattish. MACI annual growth was 35%. Guidance appears conservative once again notwithstanding uncertain future impact from Covid19 on procedure volume. Number of MACI sales rep to hit 76 in Q2 up from 49 at year end 2019.
http://investors.vcel.com/static-files/02e8a9b8-3239-4b71-8ce9-43a3f7a0990c
It will take specific info from Tesla or a tear down from Munro to figure out what exactly AKS is providing in terms of weight reduction. It could be that CEO is referring to the exoskeleton design concept and anticipating that will spread to other makers. That concept reduces weight but requires a tough exterior. Or it could just be PR to rally support for the merger.
VCEL - Q4 ER. Did beat guidance handily but not as much as my mis-interpretation of Jan. slide deck - slide 20 that suggest sales rate per sales rep is an instantaneous measurement instead of trailing 12 month estimate. MACI sales grew 30%+ and Epicel flat as expected. Don't understand their reasoning but they anticipate burn debridement product Nexobrid will result in single digit growth for all burn products. Guidance is decent for 2020 as they ramp sales regions and sales force. Added some on the dip this AM. Not sure what that was about given strong gross margins and a bottom line that should be rising rapidly from here.
http://investors.vcel.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vericel-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2019-financial
Are you anticipating a supply disruption?
SA will always be the swing producer unless they are willing to enforce market discipline. It won't be pretty for oil prices in either case so they may as well enforce their agreed quotas now. $20/barrel for a month would probably do the job.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-23/opec-emperor-saudi-arabia-has-fallen-for-russia-s-tricks
Excerpt -
"New finds, acquisitions and expansions of existing oil and natural gas holdings were equivalent to just 44% of the company’s 2019 production ... That was Chevron’s poorest performance in that important metric since 2010.
The measure, known as the reserves-replacement ratio, is key for investors because it helps them gauge whether an oil driller is doing enough to sustain future production that underpins everything from dividends to buybacks to acquisitions."
That forms the thesis for the rest of the opinion piece that CVX is not being active enough to ensure long term production growth. IMO writer complains too much. CVX like RDS is in liquidation mode at what they probably consider high oil prices.
CVX - A cautious approach towards legacy energy like that of RDS with no expressed strategy towards renewables. What they can do though in the meanwhile is use renewables to reduce opex at existing production operations where it can be done cheaply. Places like W Texas and central California. That would be the sensible toe in the water way to transition. IMO legacy companies would be unwise to take on anything that cannot match or beat shale cost/barrel because NG prices are pointing to lower oil prices over the long term.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-21/chevron-s-future-growth-prospects-dwindle-with-reserves-decline
It depends on their data sharing contracts with established automakers and I don't have the answer. They did mention off hand a collection rate of 7 million miles per day and didn't specify level. There are 40 million cars with their system so that would represent a tiny subset of systems. I haven't seen any Tesla's or Waymo vans doing what Mobileye did in that video link I posted. I have seen many Waymo's try clumsily but they are clearly getting better. Observations near googleplex.
IMO - those thinking, ie Ark, that there will be a monopoly in FSD/robotaxis are either misleading or will be disappointed.
JPM internal economic research on climate outcomes. They must for forgotten to get some input from Lee Raymond.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51581098
EYPT - Raise done. Will net out ~$22M. Over allotment would net another ~$3M. They bought a couple of additional quarters for showing significant sales growth .
http://investors.eyepointpharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/eyepoint-pharmaceuticals-announces-pricing-public-offering-0
China EV - from Automotive News. Beijing now in discussions to extend incentives.
"The coronavirus has exacerbated the most severe downturn on record for EVs in China, which in turn has dragged down the global market as the country accounts for about half of the world’s annual sales of more than 2 million units. China Passenger Car Association said people are also shunning vehicle-sharing services, which is undermining demand from car-hailing providers, major users of EVs. Sales data will likely only turn more grim as the impact of the outbreak is more fully reflected this month."