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I believe that is the one where you shut down windows, and it shouts off your computer. You can go over to microsoft and search their knolege base on it.
Almost forgot that other idle disconnect in Internet explorer.
Click on tools, then internet options,select connections, in the dialup window select your internet service, then click on Settings, near the bottom click on Properties. Click on Dialing, at the bottom, un check both disconnect boxes, then click ok,ok,ok. That should keep you online while reading messages.
Scrooge, been meaning to get back to you and your modem, problem. It sounds like at least part of the problem is on your computer! It could be as simple as your modem being set up wrong, or as complex as drivers being corrupted, or a elcheepo modem being installed, or low memory! If you decide to upgrade your modem may I suggest a Controller based modem. Here is what that means from the back of my U.S. Robotics 56k Performance Pro Modem. I bought mind at Compusa for $98, two weeks later I saw the same modem in Walmart for $79. If you want this one go to walmart!
Controller-based: the modem itself handles all communication processing task for faster throughput;no need to burden your computer's resources. It is also compatible with Dos,Linux, and windows.
Ok first lets check out your modem! on the desktop right click (My Computer) go down to Properties and left click on it. Left Click on Device Manager, You are now looking at all the devices that are on the computer. If you have any yellow flags showing on a device, It means that device ether has a conflict with another device, or its driver is messed up, or it has a hardwire problem! I am going to assume that you have no yellow flags. If you do, you need to call your tech friend over for a beer or two, make sure you have all manuals and software handy for him to use. Go ahead and close the device manager. We are going to go to the modem a different way.
Step 1. Click start, go to settings, click on the control panel, in the control panel click on modems. For this next test you have to be off line for this next test. Click on Diagnostics, you should see at least two or more com's, one will have your modem installed, select it by clicking on it. Then click on the more info button. After a few minutes you will get some info back ,like com port interrupt number memory address, type of uart and highest speed that the modem can connect to your computer. You want to write all that down for your tech friend, close that window. Go back to general, click on Dialing properties. This should be easy to understand, but I do want to point out the disable call waiting box, Most people use *70 in the usa. That will stop anyone from messing up your download, close that window. Click on Properties button. In general, you can shout off or lower the modem sound. Know under Maximum speed, you want to select the speed that the Diagnostics said you could use, you may have to come back and lower it later. Now click on connection,under connection preferences, most of the time in the us they are 8 data bits, none for parity, and 1 stop bit. If yours are different, write down what you see, then change it to 8,none,1. Under call preference you should have check marks in the first two boxes, I like to us 60 seconds in the third box. In my opinion you should clear the disconnect if idle box!There is a another one of these in your Internet settings, we will get to it later.Next click on Port Setting button, make sure there is a check mark in the use FIFO buffers, the receive buffer should be set at High, the transmit buffer should be set at Maximum, click ok. Now click on Advance. Here is where I thank your problem is, You should put check marks in Use error control, Required to connect, Compress data. That should fix the bad downloading! Next put a check mark in Use flow control, and Hardware(RTS/CTS). Click ok, and ok,and ok. You should now be ready to rock and roll. You should now be able to download a program and install it!
Well, this could get real complexs, but I don't think It needs to be. I was just thinking of one set of numbers, put out by one person, who trys to post the number around the same time of day each day. Off hand I am expecting that most if not all of the aim systems will end up to be close together.
Say Guy's now that you are all caught up! I got some more things for you to do! Over at the AIM Q&A Board things arn't looking quite right. Take a look http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=992
When you bring up one of the messages you can see what they are trying to do. But in the list it self the [b ] [/b ] looks bad!
I also came up with the Ideal that the COB (chief of the boat for submariners) needs a way of drawing attintion to the good messages. I am thanking that in the manage list you could put a check box by each message, and once the COB checked a message it would show up in the message list as a highlighted message. Or you could fix it so that as the cob read the messages he could click a box right there on the message page. You could use the cob's signin cookie to control who got the little check boxes and who didn't. I guess the cob's directors should have the same power too. Ok I' am out of here.
The first computer I worked on in the navy had 5k of memory and used 16 bits. Them were the good old days, on my first Polaris sub.
Extelecom it has been done before in a way. In Mr. Lichello's $10,00 to $1,000,000 chart. If you wanted to you could increase the percentage on consecutive buys or sells. It is what Mr Lichello is trying to have happen by letting a month go by before the next update period!
Hi comrad, I think a contest would be fun,also. I think that one of the rules would be that you have to post your buy's and sell's daily, that way you could not use back data to optimize it. As you say this would only be a contest, not real life. In real life we are, or we should be using all our senses and brains to make our judgments. AIM, Synchrovest, your vortex AIM, or any other plan is only a guild to help us make our judgments.
Something to think about, I built this computer In 1998. It has a 300MHZ AMD k6/2 3dnow CPU in it. I plan on building a new computer this year. Now that the new windows is out the need to upgrade is greater than ever. How about you, are you over due? I think this year will be a very good year for computers!
Did Your last Buy Happen to Soon!
I think Lou may be on to something here!
Lets say the start price is $100, you set up your AIM program, as 50/50 split, 10% safe 5% Minimum. The stock starts down, Somewhere close to $86 you get a buy signal. The stock dropped 14% and you bought it. Very good. Now for the sixty four dollar question where will the next buy happen at? If you answered somewhere around $73, you don't know AIM very well! It is passed time for you to bone up on AIM! The next Buy should be a round $84! If you say that can't be, that is only a 2% drop, go to the head of the class, you can do math! The reason you are getting the wrong answer is because you are using the stock price. What you have to do is find what I call the Toggle Point! Don't look in Mr. Lichello's book for it, it is not there. But do go to Tom's web site. http://www.aim-users.com/aimbrief.htm Do not look at Fig 2, it will only confuse you, do look at Fig 3, everything should be clear now! The Toggle Point is (Portfolio Control divided by Total number of Shares)or as shown in fig 3, PC/N. If the stock raises above the Toggle Point you will have a sell, If it goes below it you will have a buy. It is that simple! If you don't want to be nickel'ed and dime'ed to death you will force aim to buy or sell based on the stock price not the toggle point. How do you do this, use GTC orders of course, and a calculator! Take your last buy/sell price and add/subtract 15% from it. Put this new price in your aim spreadsheet/program and you get a ready to go GTC order, now remove that price and put in the other price and you have your second ready to go GTC order! Now remove that price. You know have your two GTC orders, when one is completed, kill the other GTC order. Put the price of the buy/sell in you AIM program, Aim is happy, you are happy! You are now ready to do this cycle all over again.
I must give Thanks to Santos B. Torres, for such a clear and understandable Fig 2!
Bullrider, no confusion on my part, but I see I have not been clear! First I am using IE6, if you are using a older version, the steps may be a little bit different. But very close to this!
Step 1. Click on Tools!
Step 2. Click on internet options!
Step 3. Click on content!
Step 4. Click on AutoComplete!
In IE6 you should see this window, in other IE's it will look a little bit different, but not much!
You see the black check marks, make your window look the same! If they are already checked, uncheck them, click ok! Then go back to the window using steps 1 through 4, recheck all boxes, click ok! It should now work! If it still does not work! let me know, and we will get down and dirty with this B#$%h!
Geocites won't let me show the picture!!!!!!!!! But trust me it is very easy and safe to do this!
Oh, about three seconds between posts! LOL! ROFLOL!
Lol, you are getting closer then!!
Hey, you took my Millennium message topic! Well not really, but I have been thinking along these lines lately. I will post more later!
Tom, to me the cashburn page is confusing. It may need more work.
Gee, everyone stopped posting! What are we doing waiting to be the lucky one?
Tom, if someone post several posts in a short time, I think they should be disqualified! what do you think!
Bullrider, both TC and NW are right! They are talking about different but related things! When you login, if you select the box Remember on this computerInvestorhub will put a cookie on your computer in C:/windows/cookies. If you logout of investorhub this cookie is removed. If you have to keep logging in the cookie could be damaged or they may have turned off cookie's, check under tools/internet options. If you are using IE6 look under Privacy. For other IE's look under Advanced. I just remember reading something about comcast and cookies they may not be letting them go through the proxy! you may have to go to Connections and mess with your proxy settings. I think you will have to do this under your Lan settings, click advance. Under exceptions, put in www.investorhub.com that should fix the cookie problem for this one site. If that fixes it I would complain to them about cookies
But about the list problem, yes you can delete the password, no problem, your user name will stay in the list. If you go where TC told you to go to clear all your forms, you should have the option to save passwords too. If you do that it will remember your password too. No one will know it all they see is ******* in the password box. You may have to delete you user name from the list, leave the page and then come back and put your user name back in to make the box pop up for saving the password.
Hi Conrad, If I get your drift you want a contest where there is no previous stock history to look at. What if Tom thinks of a number between zero and whatever and post it to the board each day. Each day is a month! that way we get ten years of data in 120 days. At the end of each year we compare. Maybe we should have two winners. One for the portfolio worth the most, and one for the lowest average cost. It will be interesting if one person can take them both.
Oh can I enroll Synchrovest in the contest, he would like to compete?
Hi extelecom, Being that you followed my idea. Let me give you my opinion. It is my understanding that you can use a tax loss up to $3,000 a year, any losses greater than that can be carry over to the next year/s. Tax experts can jump in here! If this account is in a tax shelter that may not mean much.
Here is a Ideal, what is your average cost? If the next sell is higher than average cost then you will be growing long term profits.
Here is how to calculate average cost, total amount invested in stocks divided by all shares held. Average cost only changes when you buy shares! As long as you only buy shares this is easy to calculate, but when you sell some shares how do you calculate it, you know that some of the money you got was return of capital and some was profits.You know that total amount invested has decreased, but not how much. At first glance this looks complex to calculate, but if you attack the problem from a different angle it becomes easy. If we know that average cost only changes when we buy stock, then we know that average cost is the same. Average cost times remaining shares equals new total amount invested.
Hi Cody,how are you doing.Concerning your questions.
1. In Mr Lichello book Super Power Investing He says to use 75/25 until the first sell, and then use 100%, As you now have plenty of money in the bank. When I made my spreadsheet I did not put this in. My ratio stays the same for the ten years. I did see a improvement using 80/20 over 75/25, but that may just by due to the data used. I forgot to change it back before posting it to the web site, sorry. It is interesting to note that in Mr. Lichello's latest AIM book, he uses 80/20 as the starting point.
2. Your solution is the correct one. I would not worry to much about using yesterdays price, mutual funds normally do not move much even month to month.
Thanks lol
Another thing about Dr. Pepper, I remember seeing on America Band Stand, a commercial where you heated it, and drank it like Tea. I thank that was around 1966.
I'ed have to say Flying! In about half my dreams lately I have been flying. For some reason I have a great bit of trouble getting of the ground.
lol, No I am not Johnny. lol
Yep, Come to think on it me and my brother would have these contest, who could drink it the fastest without chocking on the peanuts
I remember putting the sack (salted peanuts) in the DR. Pepper bottle as a kid. Gave it that flavor don't you know.
This site is suppose to give you a risk number for your stock.
http://www.riskgrades.com/retail/index.cgi
Tom you may want to check out this site. http://www.riskgrades.com/retail/index.cgi
Hi berry, Glad to have you over here, where we can pick your brain on the money spinner, I have read of it at your web site, but would like a detailed step by step walk through it. I have checked the web but your page is the only one on it.
About your questions!
(1) What is "Double Dollar Cost Averaging" ?
Mr Lichello talks of a system called this that he invented just before he invented Synchrovest. In his AIM book in chapter 5, he describes it.
About questions two and three, I can not help you. I checked over at Amazon and they do not have him/her listed there.
Like the Money Spinner, Lichello's system IMPLICITLY uses the dollar cost averaging and dollar value selling principles.
I think this is referring to Synchrovest. Could it be that Mr Chakrapani was reading Mr. Lichello's AIM book at the same time that he was writing his own book, both double dollar averaging and Synchrovest are talked about in Chapter five.
Hot dignity dog dam, They are showing one in Denton, and I thought the closest one was in Dallas. That will be on my list of places to go to.
I hear you, I do. Maybe the person who talked about a wait% on SI could talk more on it. From what I understand, you would make your once a month check with AIM, if you bought then you would have to wait another 30 days unless the stock went extra low, like 30% lower than your next buy point. I think that was the idea, but I would like to hear of it from the horses own mouth.
Hi karw, nice to hear from you, am glad you decide to try Synchrovest. Please keep us up to date on how you are doing with it! I may have said somewhere that I am disable, and still paying of debt. So I have not been able to start my own Plan as of yet. I am hoping to start in a year or so.
Hi Sarals, while I never got to meet Rear Adm. Grace Murray Hopper. I do remember reading that at her lectures she would hand out short pieces of wire. She would later explain that the wire represented one nanosecond of time, at the speed a electronic signal moves through the wire. She was one smart lady.
Hi Don,here is the bad news, that site will only let paying members see that jpg. If they would let you display it you would use [ chart] url [ /chart] , do not use any spaces inside the brackets, and no http:// with the url. The other jpg was on your c drive, you can not use that ether.
I bet Mr AIM was ticked off by that Bean counter in the head office. I bet he is planning on doubling up on his next order! Damm bean counter!lol
Hi Don,You have it about half right. . Let me go over them again. On the top on the left you have (Planned Monthly investment, and percent to be invested immediately) If you have a planned investment of $100 and you have Percent to be invested at 75% then you will start out with $75 to be invested,you then use the multiplier on this $75. If the multiplier is less than one , then you end up investing less than $75.
Sell Profit Percentage, is at what point you sell your stock.
On the right you have (Second cash Amount is triggered at this Multiplier, and Second Cash Amount Max buy is limited to this Percent of cash. These two determine how quickly you use up your cash. In Mr Lichello's book(Super Power Investing) he used a trigger of 1.0. Lets say that you have a average cost of $10, and the new stock price is $6, you get a multiplier of 1.66. 1.66 is greater than 1 so you know you are going to do a second calculation, for the second cash amount to be invested in the stock. The reason, Mr Lichello wanted to bring the average cost down as fast as he could. What he says to do is subtract 1 from the 1.66, to get .66, which you multiply with your cash in the bank. This could end up being a very amount. So I decided to make it possible to play with the trigger point and the max percentage of cash that can be invested at one time. that is what the two right hand controls are for
Hi Jduke, Cacheman does several things. The main one is that it adjusts windows disk cache size. By default windows disk cache can grow until it is using all your ram. This is all the original Cacheman did, the program has grown until now you can adjust name cache, path cache, cdrom cache size and optimize speed,icon cache size. You can adjust VFAT Contiguous Allocation Size this helps prevent your hard disk from becoming excessively fragmented. In this latest version if you leave the program running in memory, when you are getting low on free ram, it will try to clean up the ram, there by giving you more ram. Most of the time when our system freezes it is due to a lack of free memory. By providing more free memory the system stays more stable.
LOL, Well I thought it was real to0! It was just when I looked closer!
Tab, if you want to use AIM on growth stocks. Then you proberly want to use Tom Veale, Vealie method. Here is his example of using it. http://www.aim-users.com/aimchng.htm
I copied this from my posts over at the Fool.com.
I will try to describe how Synchrovest works, in case you or someone else, has only pencil and paper. This will seem a lot like Twinvest, but Synchrovest came first. Mr. Lichello striped Synchrovest of its better quality's to make Twinvest. IMHO
First decide how much you can invest each time. You then invest 3/4ths in stock and keep the rest in cash, just like Twinvest. Instead of a Twinvest code,you keep track of average cost. Next investment period, you take the old average cost and divide it by the new stock price. This new number he called his multiplier, it would be multiplied with your (3/4th investment) to form your final investment. However If the multiplier was larger than one he wanted you to do one more thing, subtract one from the multiplier, so you are only using the fraction. You would multiply this with your cash, to come up with the second part of your final investment. The next time period you do this all over. Just as with Twinvest, Mr Lichello thought there was a time to be invested and a time to cash in your winnings, This was at 100% profit on your money. The stock itself may have tripled, while you were making that 100%. Here is when it gets exciting and sexy.Lol! With Twinvest you do not have a way to reinvest that money you just got, with Synchrovest you do! And just like Aim , Synchrovest will be investing most near the low of the market, how ever just like AIM Synchrovest can use up all your ready cash.As a matter of fact Synchrovest will use up your ready cash faster than AIM!
Just like everyone else, I like to tweak on Mr. Lichello's programs. I came up with two for Synchrovest. One is never Invest more than half your ready cash at any one time, If you thank about it this is a good Ideal. Mr Lichello, liked to justify the titles of his books, with a demo stock chart, In super Power Investing he used this sequence of numbers, 10,11,12,13,14,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,6,7,8,9,10, and Synchrovest looks very good compared with Dollar cost averaging, that's why he wrote the book. But I had just made my spreadsheet and wanted to go up against AIM, how good would it do? So I plugged in the numbers for the $10,000 to $1,000,000 chart, How did Synchrovest do? Not very well! But when I looked closer I found out that my spreadsheet had not made one sell! Well I checked it for errors, and found none, so I sadly put it away for a while, I had really expected much better. About half a year later I was rereading Mr Lichello's book How to make a $1,000,000, and believe it or not had just got to the part about the old licence plate when it hit me! Mr Lichello had made the same mistake with Synchrovest! He was selling two high! you should not sell at 100% profit but at 50% profit. I quickly changed the spreadsheet, and reran the chart. Have you ever seen anything come close to AIM on that chart, I never had, but I did that day! Well I stopped and rechecked everything again. I even used pencil and paper, to verify the first two cycles, they matched. AIM had a $10,000 lead, And Synchrovest with just a $100 a month Investment came up from behind, How close did he get by the eighth year,seventh month? I am not going to tell you, you would not believe me! I will only say that the word Close does not cover what Synchrovest did that day. Now you can do one of two things, say what a good story that was, or go to that link and download that spreadsheet and test it your self, or if you have no spreadsheet program (Excel), you can do it by hand. Here is where that thirteen column table comes in handy. I'll start you off. Stock price 10,8,5,4,5,8 and repeat.
Planned Investment is $100 * 3/4ths, we don't have a multiplier yet, so we invest $75 at a stock price of $10,buy 7.5 shares and put $25 in ready cash. $75 divided by 7.5 shares give us a average cost of $10 a share. Next month the price is $8. The first thing we do is take average cost and divide it by the new share price, we get 1.25. 1.25 times $75 equals $93.75, but the multiplier is larger than one, so we subtract one from it to get a new multiplier, .25. .25 times ready cash($25) equals $6.25,add it to $93.75 and you get $100 invested at $8 a share, you buy 12.5 shares. Next month you take total amount invested in stock, and divide it by total number of shares, you get Average Cost of $8.75. Divide $8.75 by the new stock price of to get the new multiplier 1.75. 1.75 time $75 equals $1.31, there is no need to do the second multiplier as we have already maxed out, We only have a total of $125 that we can invest at this time! Mr. Lichello says only invest what you have on hand, no reaching into the kids piggy bank. We buy 25 shares for a total of 45 shares. The next month we have a total cost of $300 divided by 45 shares for a average cost of $6.67. Divide that by the new stock price of $4 to get 1.67. Multiply that with $75 for $125 to invest, but we don't have it so we invest $100. At $4 a share we get 25 shares for a total of 70 shares. We have invested $400, divided by 70 shares for a average cost of $5.71, not bad at all. Next month the price goes up, about time! $5.71 divided by $5 gets 1.14. 1.14 times $75 gets $85.5, we could take .14 times ?, cash on hand is zero so I don't do it, you could take 1.4 times $14.5, but in this spreadsheet I did not do it. So $85.5 invested at $5 gets 17.14 shares for a total of 87.14 shares, plus we put $14.5 in to ready cash. We have a total investment of $485.71 invested in 87.14 shares for a average cost of $5.57. Next month the stock rises again to $8 a share, we all shout we're in the money. $5.57 divided by $8 equals .7. .7 times $75 is $52.5. $52.5 divided by $8 is 6.53 shares for a total of 93.67 shares. We have invested a total of $537.97 divided by 93.67 for a average share of $5.74, we barely moved average cost. Now in my spreadsheet I keep a running total of total profit. Here is how I do it (total number of shares times current Stock Price minus Total Cost divided by total cost) at $8 we have a profit of 43.53%, we could sell now but we are greedy. So we wait, next month the stock hits $10. Average cost $5.57 divided by $10 is .56. $75 times .56 is $42 to invest, and $58 to go to ready cash, but wait before we buy stock lets see if our total profit went over 50%, our sell point. Yes it did 74.13%, lets sell! we sell, 89.37 shares, our ready cash is now at $1055.71 and we have 4.31 shares remaining. We are done for this month, except we need to raise average cost to $10.00. What I did here was keep the amount of shares I was getting ready to buy, I saved a commission. WE now have lots of cash, Mr Lichello say's that after the first sell to use your full monthly investment as you now have the cash. My spreadsheet is not set up for that. My spread sheet is not set up for investing. What it is set up for is so you can change things and see what effect it has on your profits.
Here is what I see, it is very important to sell during each cycle. It is less important to sell at the top of the cycle as we just did. I put in stock prices to simulate a bear market with several rally's, in order to catch the rally's you had to lower the sell point to 30%. My spreadsheet is free for anyone to use, or change. If you decide to make a sellable program, that used parts of my spreadsheet. I think it would be nice to give me a free copy.
I personally have not invested using Synchrovest. Being disabled I have no cash that I can risk in the stock market right now. But if I did I would start with Synchrovest, as it fits systematic investing very well. It Beats Dollar cost averaging from the get go, it beats Twinvest after the first sell point, it beats value cost averaging (I don't think I set up my VCA spreadsheet by the book), and yes it appears to give AIM a challenge. I feel it is worth everyone's time to give it a try.
RECCLES4
Didn't Mr. Lichello write about Synchrovest in the very first edition of the AIM book? I don't have that copy but I am sure I have read something about Synchrovest before and I do not believe this investing form to be widely accepted by Wall Street. Then again, the don't overwhelmingly accept AIM either, but we know what can happen by using AIM consistently over time.
rec
Yes he did, on page 26 chapter 5, As far as I know Mr Lichello never changed any of his editions, just added new chapters to the end. I first read the first edition in 1979,in that edition there was no Twinvest. Twinvest came with the 2ed edition. In 1980 I found a copy of Super Power Investing. Twinvest was made to go with AIM, by the time you get to $10,000 with it you should be able to go right into AIM at close to a 50%/50% ratio. However I believe Synchrovest will get you there faster.
I look on Twinvest as a one speed manual transmission. You have to manually pick your Twinvest code, if later in time you decide that Twinvest code was wrong you have to manually pick a new one to use. Also when Twinvest has a 100% profit Mr Lichello recommends selling all stock and starting over, But Twinvest does not know what to do with all that cash that you just got.
I look on Synchrovest as a Two speed automatic transmission. With Synchrovest the (multiplier) is created new each time, it is based on Stock price and average cost, both change over time. Also Synchrovest has that 2ed gear which he will try to use( if the multiplier is over one, subtract one and multiply the fraction with ready cash). The example I gave you only let Synchrovest slip in to 2ed gear once. Let me give you a second example, two inverters one using Twinvest and one using Synchrovest, they have both been investing at the rate of $100 for five year into the same fund which has stayed at the same price $10.The (Twinvest code is 750) and the (Synchrovest multiplier is at 1.0). They both have $6000 invested, $4500 in stock at$10 a share(450 shares)and $1500 in cash.Now lets see what happens when the price drops to $7. With Twinvest 750 divided by $7 equals $107 to be invested.
But with Synchrovest, we have a average cost of $10 divided by $7 to get a multiplier of 1.42, 1.42 times $75 equals $107, but Synchrovest is not finished yet it now goes in to second gear(1.42 minus one times ready cash) .42 times $1500 equals $630. The final amount Synchrovest wants to invest is $737.
What if the stock had dropped to $5 instead of $7, well Synchrovest by the book would have you invest all your ready cash in to the stock, If you are like me that may trouble you just a little bit, who says a stock is only going to drop 50%. I want to keep some back just in case. So I added a rule to standard Synchrovest 2ed gear. It now reads if the multiplier is grater than 1.0 you will subtract one from it, and multiply the fraction with ready cash, but if the fraction is greater than My limit then you will use my limit. The limit I recommend is 50%.I also decided that a selling point of 100% was to high, I thank 50% will do much better. In my spreadsheet you can adjust all these things to your own liking.
Both Twinvest and Synchrovest are good programs for systematic investing. I just personally like Synchrovest better.
I thought I would put in here some interesting numbers. We will use the numbers from Mr. Lichello $10,000 to $1,000,000 chart. The numbers go like this, $10, $8, $5, $4, $5, $8, and repeat. We do this for 10 years, or 120 monthly periods. We will use $100 a month because if I am ever able to invest that is most likely the amount that I will use. So we will invest a total of $12,000 dollars. Our ending stock price is $8.
For DCA you invest a total of $12,000, at the end of ten years you have a total of 1998 shares worth $15,984. Average cost is $6.01 a share.
For Twinvest We use a code of 600 (based on a share value of $8), as this gives us the greatest profits, For a total investment of $12,000 you end up with 2199.75 shares worth $17,623. Average cost of $5.44 a share.
For Synchrovest We will use Mr Lichello's original rules of selling at a profit of 100%. We have one sell on the seventh month of the eighth year.
For a total investment of $12,000, you end up with 3,785.85 shares worth $30,286.79. Average cost of $5.18 a share. We also have a cash reserve of $739.20 for a total portfolio of $31,025.99
For my modified Value Cost Averaging spread sheet. We use a Value growth rate of 9% a year divided by 12, the interest on the cash is zero for this.
For a total investment of $12,000, you end up with 1814.2 shares worth $14,513.57. Average cost is $5.16 a share. We also have a cash reserve of $41,265.54 for a total portfolio of $55,779.11
You know that is a lot of cash to have setting a round doing nothing. Lets raise the value growth rate, till we have the greatest profit. Of course you can't do this in real life.
If you raise the growth rate to 45%
For a total investment of $12,000, you end up with 20,476 shares worth $163,806.92. Average cost is $5.56 a share. We also have a cash reserve of $86,698.70 for a total portfolio of $250,505.62
Have you wondered how AIM would do If you invested $12,000 for ten years? This is classic Aim, 50% split, one safe set at 10%, minimum sell,buy set at $100.
For a total Investment of $12,000, you end up with 458,785 shares worth $5,139,992 I did not keep track of average cost. You have a reserve cash of $1,889,797 for a total portfolio of $5,560,077
Well this has been interesting, but lets untie Synchrovest hands shall we!
We will make only one change, we will sell at a profit of 50%, not 100%
For a total investment of $12,000, you end up with 7,066,993.46 shares worth $56,535,947.69. Average cost is $5.39 a share. You have a cash reserve of $6,923,716.23 for a total portfolio of $63,459,663.91. Note this is the best that it gets, if you raise or lower the sell percent from 50 percent, the total profit will be lower.
Value cost averaging, what is it. It is a cross between Dollar cost averaging and a Constant dollar Plan, with a twist. Here is a beginning description on it. http://www.invest-faq.com/articles/strat-dol-val-avg.html , Here is more in depth coverage, http://www.tmag.com/jfsd/pdffiles/v13n1/marshall.pdf , this is a pdf file so you need the free adobe reader. http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep.html
There are a lot of articles here. http://tmag.com/jfsd/index.html Also here http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ .
In Value Averaging, by Michael Edleson, He starts out discussing What (He feels) are the shortcoming of DCA, which are different than mine. He says that DCA does not include a growth factor for inflation (your monthly investment do not increase), nor is DCA concerned as to whether you will or will not reach your retirement goals His spreadsheet growth_dca covers this. He then went on to say that there are times when one would want to increase the amount that one invested in the market, like at the bottom of bear markets. This is the constant dollar plan part. He then went on to introduce his second Growth factor, Instead of using a constant dollar value, he uses a dollar value that grows at the market rate. With this he came up with his spread sheet Va_readjustment. When you run this spread sheet, you put in the present value of your portfolio, your two growth rates, what your retirement goal is and how many periods you have left. The main output is called value path. This is what your portfolio should be worth at the beginning of each month. Michael Edleson recommends keeping the growth rates low in the early years of your investment plan, I second that.
Before I got a chance to read the book I made a spread sheet called vca_gainloss, that spreadsheet only increases the dollar value. One of the negative's of Value Cost Averaging Is if you use the original rules when the stock value goes above the dollar value you sell stock. If you have had a Deep Diver stock you could start getting sell signals at a price below Average cost. I did not realize this at first, my spread sheet also has this problem. When I get a chance I will fix this. And let you know, that should boost the profits a little. Also the original rules did not include any buy/sell percentages, it try's to do it right away. Last but not less, He does not give you a method of coming up with the extra funds you will need, I used Mr. Lichello method of spiting the monthly investment into two parts, 75% to go in now and 25% held in reserve. It seemed to work out ok.