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I should of said that the System clock speed on most all of the older boards were changed by using shorting pins on the mother board. I have a super 7 motherboard, a Taiwan generic one. I have pins for the cpu voltage,Dimm voltage,etc.As far as
Clock speed goes I can set it 60 to 100 mhz. This is what they call the front end speed now a day. You then have your cpu multiplier settings, these can go between 5.5x and 1.5x. What you do is take your cpu's speed and divide it by the multiplier setting this will give you the system speed setting.
Here is a example My cpu is a amd k6/2 300MHZ if I divide 300 by 5.5 I get a system clock speed of 54.54MHZ, Which is to slow a clock. 300 divided by 3 gives me a clock speed of 100MHZ. Which is what I used, but it meant that I had to buy PC100 DIMM chips (or 10 nano sec.). At the time they were expensive so like you I started with 30megs of memory.
Note some of the old systems were unstable at 100Mhz, you see when they first started making boards with PCI buss they took the system clock speed at the time (66Mhz) and divided it by two so the PCI buss is 33MHZ, so all the video cards are set up for 33MHZ. On the old MB when you changed the system speed the PCI speed changed and sometimes the video card became unstable. On my MB card the PCI buss stays at 33 Mhz no mater what the system clock speed.
Here is a web site that can explain this better than me.
http://www.tomshardware.com
Yes, I caught that. very strange. wish I could help more but, I don't know nothing about html, let alone SQL.
I see you found it. Well done.
Hi Bob, looks like you have it working again! Before coming to the site I did a security update to windows IE6. I don't think that had anything to do with it though. After that patch was installed, I went to tools/internet Options/Privacy and set it for High. Now no cookie can come on to this computer unless I say yes. Which I did do for this website. Anyway It looks like removing and replacing the Messages did the trick.
I don't know myself, could be.
Thanks, for the warning! lol
Hi Scrooge, Lets do some checking.
1.Right click on control panel and click on properties. On the general tab it will tell you how much memory Windows thinks you have. Is it correct? If not you have a memory problem. While here click on the Device manager tab, click on the + by system devices. On my mother board I have VIA Tech chips. What ever type you have go to there web site and update your drivers! It made a big different on how well my new hard drive ran. Windows ME thought it should run in PIO mode 4, after the new drivers my hard drive runs at Ultra-DMA mode 1, if I had a newer motherboard I could get mode 5 out of the hard drive.
2. I am looking at the manual that came with my motherboard when I built my computer. On my motherboard if you have simm's installed, the dimm slot next to the simm's must be empty.
3. You have to go into bios and tell it what you have now. I have award bios, and I go into the chipset features setup to do that. While in Bios make sure that your l1 and l2 cache's are on.
4. On some motherboards you can select what speed the motherboard runs at. If I remember correctly your cpu uses 64 MHZ, your DIMM's should be able to run at that speed, some of the older SIMM's could not. If it comes to that pull the simm's, and go for the higher speed. If you change the speed be sure to change the clock multiplier, DO NOT OVERCLOCK YOUR CPU, unless you are ready to buy a new one.
Last but not least Windows 95 through ME are pig's when it comes to memory, they hog as much of it as they can and force your programs to use the swap file. The swap file is about 10 times slower than ram, as it is on your hard drive.
There is a program that will put windows on a diet, it is called Cacheman. I have used it for about two years now. It used to be Freeware. It now cost $10, unless you can't afford $10 then its free.
You can read about it here.
http://www.outertech.com/product.php?product=3&PHPSESSID=e02448c4ebdda8fc9becf57686d5d347
I am very impressed with Cacheman
Well that didn't work! Got to thinking on the http 1.1 servers and how you stay connected to the servers. So I clicked on a message got the Oops error message, and then droped the dialup connection, thinking by doing that and waiting 5 min. that the http 1.1 connection would reset. Reconnected to dialup, and refreshed the message, still got the Oops error message.
Well I will go to bed and see If you guy's have it fixed by the time I check back.
Ok I can now say that the FONIX(FONX) board problem is not cookie or cache related.
I thank you guys were playing Hotel California by the Eagles when you did the last update to that board! You can get on the bard page, but you can never leave!
Found some new oddness about the problem. When you are on the board page http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=189 , and you click on any message, you go to the Oops error message. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=209320
Now then the right link is showing in the web browser's address, If you click twice in the address window and you hit the enter key you still get the Oops error.
But and here it gets interesting, If you click twice in the address window and you hold down the control key and hit enter. You get a new link http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=209320.com with a new error message.
Microsoft OLE DB Provider for ODBC Drivers error '80040e14'
[Microsoft][ODBC SQL Server Driver][SQL Server]Line 1: Incorrect syntax near 'com'.
/boards/read_msg.asp, line 18
Note: I think this error is correct! lol you should get a error when you hold down the control key and hit enter ( what that does is check for and add if necessary WWW to the front, and .com to the end of a url).
Now for the odd part, some how this fixes the problem. If you now click twice in the address window, and remove the .com from the end of the url and hit enter, you go to the message.
It works, how odd. Now that you are on the message and not the board page, every thing WORKS, so it is not the data base or the index????
And Matt and Bob are not seeing the problem! Are Matt and Bob on a Lan that the data base server is on? Can Matt or Bob check on the board from a dialup connection? I think I am narrowing the problem down to (web server/ data base server connection), but data base server to Lan is good? Probably some type of protocol error, or something hanging up, and that last error resets what ever is hanging?
Just thought of something new to try.
Alert Matt & Bob The FONIX(FONX)board is FUBAR! and very repeatable! I have windows ME and IE6 and have not been having problems with them, or with any of your other boards. Here is what I have seen so far. I started here http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=316580 , Right clicked on the link and opened it up in a new browser, and read (TEST). So far normal. I then clicked on the FONIX(FONX) link to go to the board, again normal. I click on message #259 test and got the Oops! message http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=316550 ! Yes I know I was just there!Very odd. I then used the back button on the browser to see what else would happen. Back at the board. I clicked on message number 252, same error message. Went back to the board. I then thought maybe by going back 50 messages it will work. So I clicked on the Previous 50 link, I got a new error message! This one is I believe coming from the IE browser(HTTP 500 Internal server error) The browser is showing its (standard), the page cannot be displayed, error page. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=189&PrevStart=210 . I click on the browser back button, and go back to the board. I think, that I will go to the first post, I put 1 in the go to post box and click on go. I get the Oops! error message again. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/get_msgbynum.asp
When I clicked on the (add Board Mark link), I got this error message
Microsoft OLE DB Provider for ODBC Drivers error '80040e14'
[Microsoft][ODBC SQL Server Driver][SQL Server]Incorrect syntax near the keyword 'and'.
/boards/addBrdMrk.asp, line 19
Went back to board. Clicked on Post New Message link, got the Oops! error again. Went back to board.
All four links on bottom of page are working!
Here is a odd error, right now I am on http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=189
When I click on the FONIX(FONX) link, I should just refresh the page right? I get the http 500 Internal server error page. Very odd.
Inside the I frame, I click on the link Wise Investment, I get this error message.
Microsoft OLE DB Provider for ODBC Drivers error '80040e14'
[Microsoft][ODBC SQL Server Driver][SQL Server]Line 1: Incorrect syntax near '='.
/boards/profile.asp, line 23
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/profile.asp?User=1196
I start a new browser window and paste the above url that gave the error. Now It works. Very strange!
I am thinking it has something to do with ether the data base, or index for this board. Just had a thought, I have not logged out for a long time, maybe my cookie is getting stale. I will post this, and then try that. Also I will try deleting my cache.
Say Matt, Didn't I hear some where that you guys are using a SQL server, if that's true here is some info on the basics of optimizing it. http://support.microsoft.com/default.aspx?scid=kb;en-us;Q110352
One of the guys on the AIM board caught a email virus. Thought this web page should go here too. http://securityresponse.symantec.com/avcenter/
These are viruses that are not cleaned up all the way by Norton, but they have downloadable programs, and Info on them.
Conrad, and others read here, about your Mad Dog Virus, and how to get rid of it! http://securityresponse.symantec.com/avcenter/venc/data/w32.badtrans.b@mm.html
Other Mad Dogs, running loose. http://securityresponse.symantec.com/avcenter/
Hi Rien, could be, but He seemed to think that it was better than straight DCA.
Hi Toofuzzy, my Synchrovest spreadsheet is in the form of a simulation, I thought trying to automate the shifting of the gears between 75% and 100% would be to difficult for me to do. You should shift when you have the first sell off. If my Synchrovest spreadsheet was set up like the free AIM spreadsheet, where you change things one at a time then I would include it.
From Ben Stein, who says that maybe you can time the market! From realmoney.com:
Maybe You Can Time the Market
Soon I shall be shuffling off this little column and leaving you to the tender mercies of other observers. But before I do, I want to share with you in a very general way the debunking of a myth about the validity of "buy and hold" and the supposed inability of investors to time the market.
One of the great selling tools of stockbroker's is that it is impossible to time the market -- that is, to buy at a specific time when you get better investment results than buying at any other time. The supposed rule is that we never know when to buy and when to sell, so we might as well just keep buying all the time.
If true, this is good news for brokers. It also happens to fly in the face of all common sense. Why would there be a good time to buy and sell real estate, commodities, collectible's and bonds, but not a good time to buy and sell stock? Surely stocks are cheap at some times and expensive at other times.
Reviewing History
Well, I have just seen the preliminary results of a study by my investment guru pal Phil DeMuth that I think pokes a major hole in that "you can't time the market" baloney.
Dr. DeMuth took all of the 10-year periods in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the end of World War II. He assumed that an investor made a buy of $100 worth of the Dow from the beginning of that period until the end of 2001. The investor, as you might think, made an excellent return.
Then Dr. DeMuth made a different assumption. He computed the trailing price-to-earnings ratio of the Dow for each 10-year period before each month. If the P/E in that month were one standard deviation less than in the prior trailing period, he bought $200 worth of stock. In the other months, he bought nothing. (A standard deviation is a range within which two-thirds of all the reported results fall. Thus, buying at lower than one standard deviation below the trailing P/E would mean buying when the P/E was unusually low.) The results gave that investor more than twice the percentage gains that the dollar-cost-averaging guy received.
If the investor then cleverly sold $200 worth of stock in every month in which the P/E was greater than one standard deviation above the 10-year trailing P/E, his percentage return would more than double again.
It's Not Rocket Science
I don't want to claim too much. It may be that future results will vary. And I do not want to claim too much credit. I did suggest to Dr. DeMuth that he do this research, although he chose the exact parameters of each regression. But the basic idea -- that stocks are sometimes more of a bargain than at other times -- is not rocket science, except to people whose livelihood depends on constantly selling stocks.
John Bogle, late of Vanguard, made similar calculations 10 years ago. He found that when stocks were paying a larger dividend than usual as a percentage of price, their return over the next decade tended to be above average. When the return of stocks as measured by dividends was below average, returns over the next decade tended to be below average. (Great differences in yields yielded great differences in total return over the succeeding decade.) And of course, Warren Buffett says he makes similar calculations, although I wonder.
Today, with earnings yields and dividend yields at uniquely low levels, a conclusion is suggested: Stocks in general are still too darn high to offer a good return over the next many years.
Luckily, there are bonds, real estate and cash.
How to Improve Formula Plan Results! This comes out of 'Dun & Bradstreet's Your Investments 1983 edition".
The essence of all formula plans is to sell most stocks before bull markets peak and to buy most stocks before bear market bottoms. Since you are operating under a formula, you cannot use judgment in deciding whether the bull or bear market will continue. But there are some supplementary techniques which can help improve your profits:
1. Wait 30 to 60 days before buying or selling. Once the formula has given a signal, wait for confirmation of this trend. You will have to develop your own timing schedule, but a month is minimal and two months may be too long.
2. Act only at the midpoint of the zone. This is another delaying tactic. It shifts the action point up or down.
3. Use stop orders. When your formula stock-selling point is reached in a rising market, place stop orders to sell a few points below the current market level. If the uptrend continues, you will not sell your stocks too soon.
In the opposite direction, when your formula buying point is reached in a declining market, put in an order to buy at a few points above the current market. If the downtrend continues, you will not buy too soon.
4. Change ratios or zones. When you find that the formula plan is out of step with realities, you probably have been too conservative. Any change at or near the top of a bull market will not be effective. You will be almost out of stocks anyway. This is the wrong time to invest more heavily in stocks.
It is probably more effective to make a zoning change at the time when the market drops into the middle or lower ranges. You will hold more stocks, so your profits should increase as the prices rise.
Well done Toofuzzy. Could you post this on the Systematic Investing board too.
Hi Rien, Pleas see post number 10,
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=271433
Of the top of my head it sounds like you are thinking of doing a DCA into a Constant ratio plan.
Hi Conrad, this may be to simple, but could you be trying to use the wrong pc? When I built my AIM spread sheet, there were a few times that I would try to use a value from the wrong row, and get a circular reference error.
Hi Ergo Sum, have you been over to quicken.com? you can use the 1 click scorecard and the evaluators on your stock. Now I think you are leaning towards the NAIC way of selecting stocks. If you go here you can get a good selection of stocks.
http://www.quicken.com/investments/strategies/?symbol=
Just pick the way of investing you like and click on Strong Interest Stocks, and you get around ten stocks, you can then select which criteria you like the best.
Hi Karw I see the idea's are flowing! I love to see Idea's
You can also use (d6-0.95) and add in second gear (d6-0.95)*M5.
You buy more with a trigger point below 1 and less with a trigger point above 1 when compared to the standard trigger point of 1.00.
From this my understanding of you Idea is, what ever I use as a trigger should be used in the second gear Calculation.
In my opinion we should subtract 1 or greater than 1, never less than one.
Here is my thinking on it, the multiplier is Average cost divided by Stock Price. If the multiplier is less than one then the stock price is above average cost, we want to add less money rather more at this point. So I think the trigger point must be 1, or greater than 1.
What about in the Second gear calculation? In my opinion, we have more of a problem of investing to much too soon. AS we are using our whole cash reserve, we can have massive inflows of cash into the stock, once the stock price has dropped 50% we will be out of cash.
The half way to the wall solution does help but not enough.
I like the idea of using 1.05 in the second gear Calculation.
Hi Karw, you do have some interesting points.
1. After the multiplier passed the trigger point of 1.05, I used multiplier - 1.0.
2.Why don't you calculate ((multiplier-1.05)*Cash reserve)?
I did not think of it. I will have to check it out. At first glance it may be more of what I am looking for.
Well it is a Crazy thought. lol At first glance it would tend to reduce the size of the buys, and sells, help to stabilize the account. But you are still putting to much money into one stock, I think it would be better to use a different stock for each account. One could still stagger the starting points in time.
Hi Conrad, I see I caught your attention! About the cost, when I first saw them I thought that they were a little high myself, I thought you meant $20.00 + 6% of the transaction size. I thought $35 would be close enough to it.
Now something else. Without so many numbers, how can you get a high yield of over 30000 when you start only with 16000 total and invest every week? What happens in Synchrovest to get that kind of Return on 16000?? I have a feeling that something is wrong.
Hard to believe yes? What email address would you like me to send the spread sheet to. That way you can check it. Or you can read my post 29 for instructions on how to do Synchrovest by hand. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=966
IF Synchrovest works that well then all of us should be discussing variations on Synchrovest...shouldn't we?
Could be, I get lonely over there, at times. But I did tweak every Knob, to get that number. I lowered the sell percentage until I got a sell (35%). If I had left it at (50%) I would not of had a sell! As it was at 35% I got two sells over the run. That made the difference!
You may want to wait on this fund a while.
The Fund's investment objective is to provide long-term capital growth that is linked to the returns of the Trimark Discovery Fund by using forward contracts or other derivatives and by investing its cash cover primarily in bank deposits and money market instruments.
What does this mean to you! Ask Tom about that 2X fund that he was not able to AIM. It also used DERIVATIVES and FUTURE contracts. Beware!
Hi Labestul, Are you heading in the general direction of Tom's Vealie? It would take care of Rebalancing and adjusting the Portfolio Control.
Hi TooFuzzy, I hope that librarian can find the book, I had to go through the library borrowing program to get it last time. Had to wait two weeks for it.
I was trying to figure out what would happen if you actually had a second sell after that.
Each time you have a sell off the money goes into the cash reserves, ready to be draw on. Synchrovest will start anew with a new average cost, and very few shares of stock.
Also it seem you take a hell of a capital gains wack unless the account is not taxable.
Any time you sell all your stock this will happen. Also it may be better to take a tax loss, than to lose all your profit and maybe part of your capital.
I would think Twinvest is better in a taxable account as you would (could) just roll it into an AIM program. Do you think Synchrovest is better in a tax- free account than Twinvest and why?
One could also roll a Synchrovest plan into a AIM plan.
I think Mr L would have been jumping for joy if we had tax free accounts when he wrote the book. I personally think that Synchrovest will do much better than Twinvest in one. Why? I know you went through my posts. But in post 29 in the last half I compare the two.
IMHO Twinvest is only a very simple version of Synchrovest.
Here is the post.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=277260 It is best to get a blank sheet of paper and do the math your self, At least for me that is the best way. If you have excel, I do have spread sheets that you can use to compare the two and other methods of systematic investing, just look in the I-Box.
While My Synchrovest spread sheet is not set up for including costs yet, I think I have found a way to include them up front. If you take $20,000 and divide it by 85 weeks you get $235. This would be the weekly installment amount with out cost. With cost of $20 +.06 of $235, we end up with $200 a week to put into the spread sheet, or $17,000 to invest. This first set of numbers is with the spreadsheet set to sell at a profit of 50%.We invested $20,000, had a cost of $3,000, $17000 useful cash to invest, and ended up with 177.6 shares of stock at a average cost of$89.34. We invested $15,865.71 in Stock and have $1,163.02 in the cash reserve for a total worth of $18,922.56. So we had a loss of -5.39%. Please note that we never had a sell. We will now lower the sell percent until we get a sell. At a sell percent of 33% we get a sell at the 79th period at a stock price of $118. Now then after the sell, Synchrovest starts to invest much more money, so the costs goes up.After the sell we only have $111 to invest out of $235. So out of $20,000 we had cost of $3,534 and were able to invest $16,466. We have 58.95 shares at a average cost of $106.35 We have invested a total of $6,269.19 After the sell off. We have a cash reserve of $15,331.79 ready to be reinvested in this stock. Our total portfolio is worth $21,226.77. We have a profit of 6.13% based on $20,000. At this Time Synchrovest is thinking of going on a bear hunting trip. Note based on investing every week this should be the best you can do with Synchrovest.
But recently I had a question on how one may invest a lump sum of money in Synchrovest, so I will post what would have happened if we had invested $20,000 in a Family of funds with a Front end load of 20% or $4,000 right of the top. Man, they have some good salesmen! Well lets see what Synchrovest can do. With only $16,000 to invest, I decided to tweak all the knobs. Planned investment is $16,000 divided by 85 fir $188 a week, but this time we are using all of it, as we are well stocked with cash. We end up with a optimum sell percent of 35%. I played with the trigger point, for when we start using our second installment, and it made a big difference, we gained a few thousand right there. Mr L had it at 1.00, I set it to 1.05. Ok to sum it all up! We started with $20,000 and lost $4,000 up front, so we were down to $16,000. Starting out. At the end we have 53.04 shares at a average cost of $104.44 a share, we have invested $5,539.58 in stock after the last sell off. We have $24,837.93 in the cash reserve ready to go. The total portfolio is worth $30,141.97. For a profit of 50.7 percent, based on $20,000. Synchrovest is out hunting BEAR!! Please remember that I tweaked every knob to get this! We could not get it in real life, but it is nice to dream!
Karw, If you want to you can let us know how your Synchrovest plans go.
Being that I am disabled, It will take me a long while to get out of debt, before I can start my own Synchrovest plan.
You could be the life of the party here, showing everyone how well you do. Even If you have paper losses you could compare them to DCA, as Synchrovest should have lower losses compared to DCA.
Hi Tom,you asked Have you figured a way to turn Synchrovest into something more than just an accumulation model? Can it be applied to a closed system with no incoming cash? I think it could be used in a closed system, If one were to change the spread sheet a little bit. The way I have it set up now the spread sheet will make your monthly planned investment out of the cash, if you have no money to put in (say you lost your job). To me that is a good ideal though. Right after Synchrovest has had a sale, it will not take much money to raise the Average cost,Then once the stock Price goes down below average Cost, Synchrovest will start dumping money into the stock at a very rapid rate. Normally when the stock has dropped in half from its high, Synchrovest will be out of money!
About A closed system. Lets say you have $10,000, divide that by 60 months that gives you a planned monthly installment of $166. Now you could invest $166 each month, as in a normal Synchrovest plan but I have found that is not the best way to do it.
The best way to do it is to use a planed investment of $166, but give Synchrovest the whole $10,000 on that first month, Synchrovest will put everything but the $166 in to the Cash account. Each month he will only take $166 out to invest, unless he finds some old antique stocks at a sale somewhere, and trust me Synchrovest does keep the bank book ready, to buy all the bargains he can see. But once the Stock price goes up above the Average Cost, you will see Synchrovest stick his nose up in the air, he don't want any common stock, not him, only that cheap antique stocks for him, and then just when you think He is only a collector, he sells the whole thing, and starts all over again.
Thanks Conrad, I did start out just looking for a name. And then we both got caught in some type of Vortex, that had us spinning around each other. I wish us both more understanding in the future.
Conrad Here we go again! How many times is this? Four, I am getting tired of trying to explain that the (Neutral point is Equal to Portfolio Control divided by Number of Shares. For some reason just when I thank you have it you go off into left field, and get lost. Why do you do that? You wrote At NP=(PC-SV) Buy Advise=0. You SV are the same as my Y=(Stock Value). This is Totally true, we are in agreement!
I will prove to you that NP=PC/N is true, and that it is the same as 0=PC-SV.
Step one. Write down 0=pc-SV
Step two. Move SV to the other side, add SV to both sides. You now have SV=PC!
Step three. We next need to break SV down into its components! SV=SP*N.
Step four.Put SP*N into SV=PC. You get SP*N=PC.
Step five. Move N to the other side, you do this by multiplying both sides by 1/N. You get SP=PC/N!
SP stands for Stock Price, I now have a stock price that is at the Neutral point. Which is what I wanted! One Point! It is impossible for this type of Equation To produce more than one number at a time.
You wrote this For the Vortex AIM the Neutral Point = the pc-Value (The Set Point) I believe this to be true. I was over at your web site reading up on your Vortex AIM plan and It looks true. But if it is true then this I hope that in your discussion it was not your intention to say that the Vortex AIM the Neutral Point needs shifting. It does not. must be incorrect. Vortex AIM's Set Point, or neutral point will shift every time you have a buy or sell Automatically. My understanding of Vortex AIM from your web site is that After a sell or buy your set point will be equal to the sell or buy price, and that it will stay there until the next buy or sell.
The reason that we need to know the NP as a stock Price is because it is more handy form than PC - SV. Lets say that we are doing Aim by the Book, by hand. No computer and no spreadsheet. You would like to use GTC orders but what do you set them to? You could just stick stock prices in your AIM by hand program, but you could be at it for days and it would be a pain to do. By knowing the neutral point you can do it much faster, lets say we are using 10% Safe and 5% minimum sale. If you take the Neutral Point and +- 15% from it, you should be in the ball park of the real buy sell points. You just stick these stock prices in Aim and you will have your GTC orders. It may not be as good as the Equations over here http://www.aim-users.com/aimbrief.htm in fig 3. But it will do just fine.
By the way. I have Arthritis in my hands, and it take me a long time to do these explanations. So this will be my last one on this subject.
Hi Comrad, I see that I did not make anything clear to you, about what I was talking about. And worse still you seem to think that I was going over old material that you and Qarel had already discussed. Please understand that this to my knowledge was not the case.
I had written a post (1032) about how to improve to a small degree the performance of AIM, It seemed to me that people were writing GTC orders and not getting the performance out of AIM that they were expecting. I talked about PC/N which is not talked about in the AIM book. In that Post I called PC/N the toggle point. But I really did not like that name, I did read the post where you used set point, at the time I thought that was closer to what I wanted as a name. But during my last post to you I see that Neutral Point was what I was looking for all along. I will from now on use Neutral Point as the name for PC/N.
To make it Crystal clear.
1.PC/N= Neutral Point As long as Stock Price = Neutral Point, AIM is happy. AS long as Stock Price is not = to the Neutral Point AIM will generate a Buy/Sell Advice.
2.PC-SV= Buy Advice
When SV=PC, the buy Advice =0, you will also find that SP=(PC/N) at this time
I am not sure where the Y came from?
2a.(PC-SV)-(safe)= Lichello Buy Order, Buy Order must also pass minimum size order also.
2b. {pc-y}*F=Vortex Buy Order, I am sure this is correct as you wrote it.
The Neutral Point Must shift when ever you have a sell or buy! It is built right into the formula! When ever Pc or N change you will have a new Neutral Point. Just because it changed does not mean that it is not a Neutral point. The reason it is still a neutral point is because when the Stock Price = the new Neutral Point, the Buy/Sell Advice = zero.
If after reading my post 1032, you still do not understand about the neutral point please go here http://www.aim-users.com/aimbrief.htm , and read the paper by Santos Torres.
No Conrad that's not quiet what I meant. PC/N is at the middle of the hold range. Maybe neutral point would be better. When Share Price = PC/N Aim is at a Neutral Point. It nether has a desirer to buy or sell. When the Share Price moves in one direction or another, AIM will develop a desire to ether buy or sell. This desire is blocked by the buy/sell safe's in AIM. The safe's are what form the ends of the hold range.
Hi Conrad, I did not mean to be so critical. You continue to bring good points to the boards attention. About the word set point, after writing my last message to you. I realized that set point describes (portfolio Control divided by numbers of shares) much better than toggle point. So maybe we should use set point for that. What do you think?
Hi Conrad, I propose that we keep All of Mr Lichello's names from his book, other wise the newbe's to the board will be totally confused. We do not want that! Portfolio Control is a reference value that we change from time to time, under controlled conditions. At times we compare the Stock Value to Portfolio Control, this helps us to come to a decision as to buy , hold , or sell some of our stock. What if I take all the names you use for the parts of your Vortex AIM and changed them. Would that help people to understand it better or add to the confusion.
Being that O.exe is in the Temp folder, you should be able to delete it. I think I would rename it to something else like OCIHvirus.old that way if some other program wants to run it, they will not find it. Normally if you see a program in the temp folder it is safe to delete it. Install programs use the temp folder, but good install programs cleanup after them selves.
Hi Lou, It sounds like you have a good grip on how they work. I read your message on the AIM board and was going to respond. I think your present AIM fund has reached a point where the $600 a month does not mean much to it. I think that I would select another fund to start investing new money in, If possible a fund that does not behave like your present fund. That way the peaks and valleys in your portfolio should start to average out. Should you do Synchrovest, Twinvest, value averaging, DCA ,Invest%, or a un named process based on 200 day moving average, or a combo of any or all the above. IN the I-box for this group I have two links where you can get spreadsheets to try. The dcagainloss spreadsheet, try's to show some of the short comings of the dca method. In the first link, which goes to start investing on MSN, I provide more web sites, that agree with my thinking that DCA does not respond very well after 12 periods, though I look at it from a different angle than they do. They are looking at it as a way to invest a sum of money over a short period of time. I am looking at it over a long period of time, as in a 401k. Let us say you invest $600 a month in a fund that goes like this 10,8,5,4,5,8,10,8,5,8 ... That second month it looks like DCA is really working, At the end of the first month you had a loss of 20%, you add the next $600 and now you have a loss of only 10%. Ain't math neat, you still loss the same amount of money, it just looks better this way. Average cost goes from $10 to $8.89 a share. Now lets look at ten year's later. In month 115 the share price is $10 your shares are worth $114,600. The next month it is $8 a share your stock is worth only $92,280.00, but now when you add that $600 it hardly does anything for you.Your average cost goes from $6.02 to $6.03. If you try the Twinvest spreadsheet you will see that it behaves the same. Only Synchrovest, or Value averaging are able to have a big effect on the average cost after ten years.
I guess I got a little bit carried away there, back to your question. If as you believe we are at the bottom of the bear market you should do a modified DCA, and when we get to the top of the new bull market you should sell all your shares and start a Synchrovest plan, to ride the next bear market. By modified DCA I mean take 80%-75% of that 600 and DCA it, the other 20%-25% is for buying on the dips. Keep track of your average cost and when ever the share price is less than it, you will divide Average Cost by Share Price to get a multiplier, subtract one from it so all you have is a fraction,if the fraction is grater than .5 use .5, then multiply that fraction with the cash and that will be an additional amount for buying shares on the dip. The next question will be when to sell? One would have to build a spreadsheet, like I did for Synchrovest and put in the last ten years of data of the fund. And then optimize the spreadsheet for the fund. I think you will find that you want to sell somewhere around a profit of 30% to 50$ over total amount invested, you should be near the top then.
Scrooge, did you check out your modem, The only way to download a corrupted file is if your modem did not have error correction turned on, or if the drivers for your modem are not working correctly. Having a 50k connection only mean's that you have a clean phone line and that the front end of your modem is working. Front ends are always Hardware, the middle components and the final end of the modem can be ether hardware, or software, it depends on how much the modem cost.