Long on AVXL since 2011. Loaded up on AVXL in early spring 2015.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I'll try, Roxie. In my opinion, Interactive Brokers (IB) is the best brokerage in almost every way. I have not done the following, but this is my understanding of what can be done and what I intend to do.
First, on most stocks on which IB allows margin, they allow leverage (borrowing) up to 4x, meaning with $100 you can buy $400 worth of eligible stock. It would usually be foolish to max out margin credit because any dip in one of your stocks would cause an immediate margin call--very bad.
The biggest benefit of a high margin is that it gives you a large buffer if you only use small or modest amounts of margin leverage. E.g. If you have $100 and buy $150 worth of eligible stock, you have a lot more room for price fluctuations without causing a margin call than you would if they only allowed a 2x leverage.
Second, IB charges the lowest interest rates on margin. For a Pro account, the currently charge a maximum interest rate of 1.6%, for borrowing up to $100K. The interest rate goes up for borrowing more, as low as 0.75% for amounts over $200M. For Lite accounts, the interest rate is currently 2.6% regardless of the amount.
Third, IB allows cash withdrawals on margin accounts. So if I have $1M worth of margin-eligible stocks in my account and no cash, I can withdraw $100K in cash and use that cash to pay off a mortgage, buy a car, etc, and my total account would be margined at 1.1x.
Fourth, they currently do not allow margin on AVXL. I recently asked them when that might change, and they said it would be considered after AVXL reaches $5B in market cap, which would currently be around $75/share.
Next, I plan not to sell any of my AVXL stock, perhaps ever. I am 100% invested in AVXL. The only reason to sell would be if I think it has passed a permanent peak in price and Anavex decides not to pay dividends. I expect Anavex will begin paying dividends sometime after they have been earning significant profits, and that they will be modest payments at first, with small increases in the amount of dividend per share increasing every year.
Finally, when I want to spend some money I will wait until IB sets AVXL as margin eligible and withdraw some cash. They may initially restrict how much it qualifies for, perhaps only 2x, but don't think that would be very risky for up to a 1.1x margin cash withdrawal with AVXL still trending up in the long run. Then I will either save some of the withdrawal to make interest payments or I will let IB loan me the interest payments and add it to my margin. Once Avavex starts paying dividends, I will deposit some or all of the dividend payments to my IB account to pay off my margin loans.
I hope I explained this well enough. If not, please feel free to ask for clarifications.
Many large blocks are agreed upon between two or more large investments firms, rather than on the open market. Such an agreement might be structured as: We'll buy $25M in AVXL from your firm at the end of trading, for a price per share based on the end of day closing price. There are many variations on this theme.
In the case of Anavex, we have a big funding/financing agreement in place, and Anavex can tell the funding company something like: We want to exercise our option to have you buy 1M shares at the end of the day at the end of day closing price. In this type of deal, Avavex sells previously authorized new shares into the marketplace.
I think WallStreetBets slayed the big shorts, and that is why our gains have generally been holding since early February. Lots of buying doesn't explain to me, because every share bought is matched by a share sold.
Longterm, the all-time closing high is $21.76, on 18 April 2008, after adjusting for the reverse split.
Source: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AVXL:NASDAQ?window=MAX
This source combines the old OTC data with the data from after the uplist to NASDAQ.
Yes, the first one about Ern Heaven was posted in December of 2016.
Thank you for letting me know. I'm sorry to hear that. :(
What happened to Bennyboy?
All-time high (OTC): $21.76 April 18, 2008
This is from Google Finance, which merges the original OTC records from August 4, 2006 with NASDAQ records (AVXL uplisted from OTC to NASDAQ on October 28, 2015), and adjusts the pre-reverse-split values to match the post-split values. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AVXL:NASDAQ?window=MAX
Note the volume of a mere 225K shares from the OTC historical high close of $21.76.
Anavex 2-73 was a long-shot back then. Now it's point-blank. We've done very well, but the best is yet to come.
Correction: My 1st purchase was 2/22/2011, $3.72/share, 800 shares.
I got confused because I had multiple brokerage accounts back then, and bought AVXL in all of them, but at different times.
My reference to my lowest priced shares was correct.
Biogen: "We put all our trials results into 2 boxes, A and B. If the FDA only considers the evidence in box A, we meet the minimum requirements for approval."
"IF this move came on NO NEWS... dont you think theres something strange about that?"
I don't that's strange at all.
There is public news, semi-public news, and private news. Semi-public can include things such as wallstreetbets or other social media that's off the radar of main stream news. Private news includes subscription investment newsletters and word-of-mouth that can be to or from a wealthy investor. Semi-public and private news can have a significant impact at any time, with the general public having no idea what stimulated the market pressure.
MIke, a peer-reviewed article on Anavex 2-73 was published this week, with a press release on Tuesday:
https://www.anavex.com/anavex-life-sciences-reports-anavex2-73-blarcamesine-featured-as-a-disease-modifying-small-molecule-in-phase-3-clinical-trials-in-a-new-publication-in-medical-journal-titled-future-av/
Also on Tuesday was a new article by Lane Simonian at Alpha which had a very positive mention of Anavex 2-73 at the end:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414175-eli-lilly-and-alzheimers-disease-number-games?mail_subject=lane-simonian-eli-lilly-and-alzheimer-s-disease-the-number-games&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
Nothing is wrong with Dr. M
I agree. If there were, as a founder and the largest and longest term stockholder, as well as the chairman of the board, Tom Skarpelos would replace him.
So far under Dr. Missling, Anavex has been performing extremely well. The stock price will begin to more accurately reflect that after our first FDA approval, if not sooner.
Not with that HUGE GAP at $10.50
I think that gap only exists if you ignore the after-market and pre-market trades, which had millions of shares traded in the "missing" range.
Jimmy, the last short report on AVXL was 5,580,000 shares, vs. 67M shares outstanding, most of which are part of the float.
That's a great article by the SA news editor. Thanks for sharing. I'm so glad I got to watch the market today. It was a lot of fun, but tiring.
Reddit... the last post was very positive, 7 days ago, with 25 likes:
Anavex Life Sciences ( AVXL ) (self.wallstreetbets_)
submitted 7 days ago by School-Historical
This one will be a $ 20 stock in the next 2 - 3 months. Rett Syndrome, Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s. 6 P3 trials going on. Not one trial has failed Best kept secret in biotech. IHub message board has a tremendous number of top notch posters.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets_/comments/l5tacu/anavex_life_sciences_avxl/
You beat me! I've been in since 2011, but my cheapest shares were in the early spring of 2015, when I loaded up.
It depends on how you define blue sky. Technically, I think the highest price AVXL has ever had after taking the 4-1 reverse split into account is $21.60 on 3/9/2008, while it was on OTC.
The Stock Loan Borrow (SLB) rate for AVXL at Interactive Brokers today is 1.9%, and the trend line is flat. A low and flat SLB rate is a very strong indication that the recent increase in AVXL is not part of another pump & dump fraud.
Could the institutional shorts' recent problems partly explain AVXL trending up? Are they too busy dealing with their problems, or too broke, to do business as usual across the board?
"They can break shorts."
That's an excerpt from https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/cramer-sees-wallstreetbets-investors-vs-hedge-funds-as-a-new-paradigm.html
And this new anti-short tactic can be applied to any shorted stock at any time, including AVXL.
Tom Skarpelos was the original venture capitalist who put up the money to create Anavex. Yes, long ago he sold a significant number of shares, but he remains the single largest stockholder in Anavex, in addition to being the Chairman of the Board and the person who recruited Dr. Missling.
Insiders have to report selling their shares. Missling has never sold a single share. Dr. Missling was recruited by the Chairman and founder Tom Skarpelos after the previous CEO ran the company bankrupt. Dr. Missling has exceptional credentials, and he has kept the company solvent and making progress.
Market Makers (MM's) create liquidity, without which most people would not be able to buy or sell. That's how NASDAQ was designed. MM's earn money on a difference between what the buyer pays and what the seller receives. It's not called a commission, but it basically functions as one.
I've been long on AVXL since 2011, although I bought most of my shares in February 2015, with the lowest cost at 16 cents/share (pre-reverse-split).
I agree with just about everything you said except I will add that the risk is now significantly reduced by having multiple trials targeting multiple indications. Insufficient results in one will not be nearly as bad as it would be if we only had one trial in progress.
Gaps don't always close, and the older the gap, the less likely it is to close.
Pump and Dump:
"Pump and dump" is a form of securities fraud that involves artificially inflating the price of an owned stock through false and misleading positive statements, in order to sell the cheaply purchased stock at a higher price. Once the operators of the scheme "dump" sell their overvalued shares, the price falls and investors lose their money. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump
Short and Distort:
"Short and distort" is a type of securities fraud in which Internet investors short sell a stock and then spread negative rumors about the company in an attempt to drive down stock prices. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_and_distort
That wasn't a Pump and Dump, it was a Short and Distort Attack.
Anything regarding neuro mechanics is on topic for Anavex 273, in my opinion.
This is the kind of in-depth information I appreciate about this message board.
Park West appears to own 11.5% of AVXL, if I understand this 13G correctly.
PWAM and Mr. Park own 3,370,000 shares, equal to 6.0%.
PWIMF owns 3,058,954 shares, equal to 5.5%.
Rett is tiny, but off-label is unlimited.
"Off-label use is generally legal unless it violates ethical guidelines or safety regulations." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Off-label_use
The minute I find out that A273 is approved for anything, I will get an appointment to get an off-label prescription.
I can't see raw SLB data, only a chart, which shows IB's SLB rate at 5.5% this morning, and it has ticked down to about 5.3%.
Interactive Brokers has access to more borrowing sources than any other brokerage, but even they don't have access to everything. If your brokerage is not IB, they may have trouble borrowing shares that IB does not have.
Normally, the harder it is to borrow shares of a stock, the higher the SLB rate is. That's the function of the SLB rate.
Also, I speculate that a high volume of trades (relative to shares outstanding) might temporarily take some shares out of the pool of available-to-borrow shares, between the trade and settlement.
And today AVXL has reached a Golden Cross.
No significant change in SLB rate for AVXL. It is stable below 10% and has been for over a year.
SLB stands for Stock Loan Borrow, and is a fee rate that indicates current demand for shorting vs the known available supply.
This SLB fee rate data is from Interactive Brokers, the most comprehensive source available.
Every share legally sold short must be backed by a borrowed share, and the account that is shorting pays interest on the borrowed share.
This fee rate is annualized, and applies every day including non-trading days, until a share is bought-to-close the short share.
The higher the fee rate, the greater the demand for shorting; The lower the fee rate, the lower the demand for shorting.
As long as the SLB fee rate does not go over 125% in a short period of time, another Short & Distort Attack is probably not imminent, although normal shorting should be expected whenever a consensus forms that a peak in price-per-share has been reached.
[Is this post legible without using bold and all caps?]
A person with a brain malfunction may be unaware of something even if it is not hidden from them. In some of my worst times, you could tell me you were giving me a specific drug, and I wouldn't be able to understand. I don't know how aware/unaware Rett teens are, or if their awareness varies. If one of them in incapable of understanding they are being given a real drug instead of a placebo, I don't think it could have a placebo effect.