Long on AVXL since 2011. Loaded up on AVXL in early spring 2015.
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This looks like just another far down-stream symptom, not a cause, let alone "the" cause.
I didn't remember, powerwalker. My long term memory is my written/digital records, so if it's not in those, it's lost to me. And my notes about this are so extensive, they don't help much anymore, except for the most recent things. I do have a list of friends' usernames from here in a spreadsheet, though, and you're on it!
Thank you, Joseph. I was diagnosed with MCI about 10 years ago, and was told there was a 50% chance of progressing to Alzheimer's, 25% of stabilizing, and 25% of recovering. After that, I made aggressive changes to my diet and exercise, including studying cellular-level nutrition. I learned about ketogenic diets, which provides ketones to fuel brain cells (which helps because MCI brain cells can't use glucose as efficiently as they used to), and both I and my family notice I think better while I'm on keto. So far, I've been stable, but I'm still hoping to recover, and blarcamesine looks like it could make a major difference, especially with good diet & exercise.
Wow, thanks, Lenivec! I'll start studying that!
Update: At first look, it seems to be only for "terminally ill patients," and I'm not sure how that would apply to someone with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), so I'll keep working on my living-in-Europe plans for now. Wherever I can get it first, that's where I'll go. If that's at home--all the better!
I don't think the U.S. will allow importing 2-73 from Europe without FDA approval, which is why I've started plans for living in Europe for a while. Whether or not I use those plans may depend on whether or not 2-73 gets approved elsewhere first.
If it gets approved in the U.S. for Rett Syndrome, my primary care doctor is already planning to give me an off-label prescription.
A dividend clarification: The 8.2% I posted was the top-20 average of total dividends to total revenue, which is not the same as Dividend Yield.
The yield is the dividend related to share price, which is what most investors actually care about, but share price of individual stocks is too volatile to be useful this far in advance. However, according to an article in Forbes in 2018, the average dividend yield for all dividend-paying pharmaceutical companies was around 2.4%.
I agree with others here that Anavex's dividend yield is likely to be higher than average due to lower costs.
Your 5% appears to be a reasonable estimate regarding dividends.
On 2 March 2020, I studied dividends from recent years of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies, who had an average market cap of 129.7B, and their average dividend/revenue was 8.2%.
And like you, every projection I make looks superlative.
New Reg. VP, 2 weeks, first approval submission
2 weeks ago: [NEW YORK, Nov. 06, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Anavex Life Sciences Corp... today announced the appointment of David Goldberger, RPh, MLS as Senior Vice President Regulatory Affairs. Mr. Goldberger brings over 40 years of pharmacy practice and pharmaceutical industry experience and has most recently been with Otsuka Pharmaceuticals Research and Development (Otsuka) as Vice President Global Regulatory Affairs, U.S. and Europe.]
Mr. Goldberg appears to be a man of action, and it seems he has revised the approval progression strategy.
"...Anavex engaged in well documented stock promotion schemes..."
The documentation you linked shows that a stock price manipulation attempt occurred. None of the documentation shows that Anavex participated. On the contrary, it appears clear to me that Anavex was the victim, just as they have been the victim of other attacks of the sort used by criminal shorts. It would not be surprising if the manipulation was a setup to stage a justification for the lawsuit, all orchestrated by criminal shorts, such as when Anavex was also accused of being behind the criminal Short & Distort attack, when Anavex (and long investors) was merely the victim.
"...officers and directors have a fiduciary responsibility to enhance shareholder at all stages..."
Yes, but that does not mean they have to try to maximize the stock price at every moment of every day, which is functionally impossible. It generally means they have to maximize the long term value, which they have been doing, even if you can't recognize it or knowingly deny it.
"... If stock price isn’t important to you..."
Your assertion is not even close to what I wrote. The pre-revenue stock price is of minor importance to me, because I'm not a trader. The maximum long term value is of primary importance to me from an investment perspective, and is why I've held and not sold for over 12 years.
If I remember correctly, Dr. Missling used to communicate a lot more, until Anavex was hit with a frivolous lawsuit that cost a lot of wasted capital to defend. After that, his PR's slowed down a lot.
I first invested in 2011 and have always expected Anavex to be a gigantic winner after it's first FDA approval, and for the value of the meandering stock price to be unimportant until then, except as it affects how many shares I can buy.
I understand the frustration you and many others are suffering, but this is still a pre-revenue company. From my perspective, it is not the job of our CEO to try to keep the share price going up before we get FDA approval. It's his job to get us to our first FDA approval and get our first drug on the market, and then the share price going up won't need any cajoling by him.
Yes, we're in the dark about the day-to-day progress toward the ultimate goal, but I approve of that if it keeps away more frivolous lawsuits, which it has so far. His communication has been adequate for me to know that success is just a matter of time.
Perhaps Dr. Fadiran's retirement wasn't voluntary?
AVXL market cap > SAVA, 1st time [eom]
AVXL vs SAVA market cap:
It's long bothered me that SAVA had a higher market cap than Anavex. It seems to me that had to be based on things like social momentum and other characteristics that over valued SAVA's weak fundamentals and under valued Anavex's strong fundamentals. But at the end of today's trading, Anavex's market cap has gotten the closest its ever been to SAVA's.
AVXL: 757.449M
SAVA: 779.044M
We should start a pool to bet on when AVXL's market cap will go above SAVA's, and another for when AVXL's will double SAVA's.
Plus, Missling confounded those on the sidelines.
Soumit Roy: "...could you refine the timeline? Is it going to be later, like in November timeline, or could be earlier in third quarter?"
Christopher Missling: "...we want to surprise the market."
This makes it financially dangerous to stay on the sidelines.
"With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can't figure out when it will happen. You don't want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you're right about what, you don't have to worry about when" -Warren Buffet
The Ugly Duckling, a retrospective from August, 2015
Once upon a time, some researchers thought, "Maybe a sigma-1 receptor would solve our problem." It didn't.
But in Greece, Dr. Alexandre Vamvakides thought, "Hey, just because it doesn't help that problem, it doesn't mean it's not useful for something else," so he began studying it. That kind of research costs a lot, so he joined up with Tom Skarpelos, an investor who could help. He shelled Thrifty Printing, which was no longer in operation, and turned it into a biotech research company, and they named it Anavex Life Sciences.
They added people to their team, and decided to try to reach more investors by listing their company on the American Over The Counter (OTC) Markets. Maybe they didn't know the OTC was frowned on by Wall Street big-shots.
They made some amazing progress, and behold, one of their sigma-1 receptor candidate drugs actually cured pre-clinical trial animals of Alzheimer's! Yea!
Unfortunately, they needed more money, and an expert who liked their research to help them grow into the kind of company that could change the world.
So there they were. A good idea, with great potential, but out of money, stuck in the OTC, and without the right person to lead them forward. The poor company's stock was even the victim of pump-and-dump fraudsters.
But they didn't give up. They kept at it, and finally found Dr. Christopher Missling, who was just the person they needed! He secured a ten million dollar loan, and they launched the first ever clinical trial that would give their leading drug candidate to people with Alzheimer's, and they even started making plans to move from OTC to a big board.
It seemed like half of forever, but then, on July 22, 2015, the first glimpse of the results were revealed. It worked! Tests showed improvements that were better than the standard medicine for Alzheimer's! Hooray!
And that... was just the beginning.
“I never dreamed of such happiness as this while I was the despised ugly duckling.” --H.C. Andersen
I am a candidate for lacanemab, but they could not pay me to take it. ~20% chance of brain bleed for negligible benefit. Nope.
I will be waiting in line the first day when Blarcamesine becomes available. If first approved outside the U.S., I will travel to get it.
Congress investigated the approval process of Aduhelm. This article summarizes the investigation and findings:
We can't trust the FDA, by DAVID STROM, December 30, 2022
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2022/12/30/we-cant-trust-the-fda-n520638
4. Monitoring and planning for potential partnership or acquisition.
Instead of "a" dog & pony show, this sounds more like "the" dog & pony show.
Dr. Missling has 20+ years of BP, biotech, and investment banking experience, with a doctorate in chemistry and an MBA.
He has successfully brought Anavex from the brink of bankruptcy with no human trials to the point where we are ready to aggressively pursue regulator approvals.
The rest of our executives, directors, and consultants are excellent, and in many cases they are world-class leaders.
It would be idiotic to dump Missling for anyone else, and only trolls paid by a big pharma competitor, shorts, or shallow-minded investors who have been fooled by trolls and shorts would suggest it.
SLB rate 4.44% at close, down from afternoon high of 5.8%. This Stock Loan Borrow fee is the interest rate on borrowing shares of AVXL, and this is an insignificant rate based on its history.
I'm not going to report daily any more, but I'll report it here if I see anything unusual.
SLB rate 2.97% at close, down from a high yesterday of ~7%.
SLB rate at close is 7.03%. For comparison, during the criminal Short & Distort attack years ago, the SLB rate shot up to 175%.
Last Wednesday, the Stock Loan Borrow (SLB) rate, the interest rate on borrowing shares to sell short, was ~0.75% for AVXL. On Thursday, it rose to ~1%, on Friday, it rose to ~2.25%, on Monday it declined to ~1.5%, and today, it has risen to ~4.3%. In my analysis, this represents a noticeable, but not a major, increase in shorting that is overnight or longer. There is still a significant number of shares available to borrow.
I don't think this is alarming. I wouldn't bother posting this except I promised a long time ago to share any SLB changes I noticed.
For comparison, during the criminal Short & Distort attack years ago, the SLB rate shot up to 175%.
Or... the street has assessed revolutionary results and is manipulating the market, including through paid liars here and every other social media, in order to deceive retail investors into giving up and letting the orchestrators buy millions of shares held by those retail investors.
They may simply want all the profit they can get from Anavex's success, or they may want to conduct a hostile takeover to reap maximum profit from Anavex, or in the worst case, a competitor may want to acquire Anavex and then prevent blarcamesine from reaching the market so they can profit from sales of their much more expensive drugs. Yes, there are people who are that evil, the same kind who hire paid liars.
Christopher U. Missling, PhD, MS, MBA
Dr. Missling, President and CEO of Anavex, has over 20 years of healthcare industry experience within large pharmaceutical companies, the biotech industry and investment banking. Prior to joining Anavex®, he served as the Chief Financial Officer of Curis and ImmunoGen. In addition, at Aventis (now Sanofi), Dr. Missling worked as head of financial planning on all aspects of financial strategy and M&A. His career experience also includes working as an investment banker in the healthcare practice at Deutsche Bank, serving pharmaceutical, biotech, and diagnostic companies, as well as serving as the head of healthcare investment banking at Brimberg & Co. in New York. Dr. Missling has an MS and PhD from the University of Munich in Chemistry and an MBA from Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management.
Source: Anavex.com
A sales guy to lead Anavex? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
"Dance with the guy who brought you to the party."
The first thing that popped up for my search was that the FDA regulates dietary supplements as food, not as drugs.
I don't understand your reply. I have great difficulty understanding sarcasm, if that's what your reply is, and to a lesser degree, humor, plus my cognitive ability is at a low point for the day. If you're criticizing me, you need to spell out to me if you want me to understand.
By "individual decisions," I did not mean to imply humans only. Investment algorithms make countless decisions, each of which contributes to the aggregate. And I agree that they are programmed to exploit the market. I think every investment decision tries to exploit the market. If I remember your posts well enough, I think you believe the hedge funds, MM's, etc. program their algo's to exploit the market illegally and/or right at the edge of legality, and if you do, I agree with that, too.
Multiple reasons. There is an adage about "buy the rumor, sell the news" which reflects this common scenario. Many investors who invest based on headlines, excitement, and fear of missing out, and without performing due diligence to understand the a company's fundamental prospects, can easily panic. If overly enthusiastic investors buy heavily on margin (credit) and then price drops too much, their brokerage can force them to sell regardless of the price, which drives the price down more. Investment institutions such as hedge funds, mutual funds, investment banks, and others can and do take advantage of these "retail investors" by manipulating them.
E.g. If a hedge fund sees a biostock company present great news and wants to invest, they may try to get shares much cheaper by various means of driving the price down. They can see level 3 data which includes the price points and volumes of shares available at lower prices through stop-loss orders, which they want to acquire. As the price goes down, stop-loss orders get executed at the market price, driving the price down even further.
In one notable case, AVXL was subjected to a large "Short & Distort" attack. That's where there is collusion with firms shorting to maximum capacity (borrowing and selling all the shares available to borrow) followed by a pre-planned disinformation campaign in the media and on social media. The big shorts wouldn't risk everything like that without having their puppets ready to guarantee the media hits.
All this and more is why I buy without margin, hold, and ignore the daily, weekly, monthly, and in this case, yearly price fluctuations. I get excited to see the price go up, and disappointed to see it go down, but it doesn't affect my investment in the long run. I am convinced Blarcamesine is going to get approved. It's only a question of when, and I will wait regardless of how long that takes.
Don't expect the market to be rational, it is the aggregate of countless individual decisions. Many decisions are sometimes based on the same news and expectations, but that can be deceptive, and investors/institutions may buy or sell the same, but for different reasons.
For a possibly relevant example, in a strong down market many investors, including institutions, may get squeezed and have to free up cash and reduce their exposure. Options are one tool for medium-term risks, but selling may be required for a squeeze. Other institutions may try to leverage the situation to try to sharply drive down a stock price so they can accumulate it on the way back up.
There's no way to be sure how much of a trend is driven by which reasons, so people guess about what the dominant reason(s) might be.
AVXL has never had anything but positive trial results, yet has almost always declined in price per share after first presenting the news. Your supposition about results and buying pressure is intuitive, but invalid.
30-70% range seems typical for all companies, big and small, bio and non-bio, which leads me to suspect the vast majority of those off-exchange trades are from market-maker actions to provide liquidity.
Not for years, not after what we learned on Thursday. I put in my notes years ago to expect approval in 2022 at the earliest. I now predict an 80% chance of approval next year, and 20% chance no later than 2024.
As to what happens after that, study what has happened to pre-revenue biostocks' share prices after their first FDA approval. They go parabolic.
Yes, to me, it's noise. It's been noise since I first bought shares and saw the price per share drop for years, and then I loaded up under 20 cents a share, and it's been noise ever since as the price per share has risen and fallen repeatedly. The only thing that counts for me is approval. Everything between then and now is noise because I'm not a trader. I bought, and I'm holding. I recommend everyone do that.
peeved, I've been bullish since 2011, and still am. I'm not bullish for today's price, or tomorrow's, I'm bullish for FDA and other approvals. That's the only time I'm sure the price is going to go up, and it will go way up after that. Until then, the stock price variations are just noise.
McMagyar, I think you are and some others may be misreading the short data, and conflating short trades that are closed within the same day (often at sub-second speed) with short positions held overnight or longer.
The high volume of same-day open & close short positions is a normal part of a Market-Maker's techniques for promoting liquidity. I'm not familiar enough with it to rule out that it might be used maliciously, but it certainly doesn't have to be, and even if it is, those sub-second open & close short trades do not stay open overnight.
The best indicator I'm aware of regarding overnight or longer short positions is the Stock Loan Borrow (SLB) rate, which is the interest rate charged on shares borrowed, which is currently very low for AVXL, and has been ever since the Reddit/GameStop destruction of industrial-level shorting.
It appears to me that no major players are buying the foolish claims of AF and his clones.
At least this author didn't try to hide their financial incentive to push the stock price down.