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I do enjoy the music so...
Looking forward to this presentation. It has been a very long time in coming to this successful point in time.
cl.
interstate... next week?
no one knows when. could be in five minutes, after-market close, could be postponed yet again...
but, I did enjoy reading, "working on labeling instruction with FDA..."
so, I added today.
cl.
Can anyone explain the massive volume increase?
Thanks in advance.
cl
So, who is selling this news?
cl.
Note: Currently, I am Long TPIV.
Take a look @ PTN...
Palatin Technologies Achieves Target Patient Enrollment in Pivotal Phase 3 Studies for Bremelanotide for Female Sexual Dysfunction.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/palatin-technologies-achieves-target-patient-123000132.html
cl.
PTN... Dew: thanks for your opinion. As always, I do appreciate your response.
cl
(OT) Sage7243...
It was CYTX. Nearly 150% in six (6) weeks or so.
Thanks again.
cl
Welcome to PTN Sage7243.
And, thank you for making me money in the recent past. I track your Stocks.
cl.
PTN... Dew (& others), have you ever considered taking a position in PTN?
Now that Sprout has been bought, PTN does appear to be in an excellent position with its established P3 for either a substantial partnership ($) or BO.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
cl.
PTN... so, you have a hard sell in @ share price of $5.00? Good for one (1) year?
Just curious.
cl
Reference buy out (BO)...
Do not forget about the Japanese. They have an appetite for US bios.
And, whoever mentioned DD, he is long AMRN.
cl.
I heart Stumbling Bear (SB).
You are now #2 in my heart after my mutt of a dog.
Added to all my positions @ $2.15.
Thank you, thank you SB.
cl.
AMRN share price and Shorts...
A company with significant events pending needs, nay, requires Shorts. No Shorts = no titanic paroxysm in PPS.
cl.
Everyone... Please take a deep breath...
Got questions? My sincere recommendation is to CALL Braeburn and ask your questions directly to them.
cl.
Write to us at:
info@braeburnpharma.com
or call: 609.751.5375
For Media Inquiries:
MSLGROUP Boston
781-684-0770
helen.shik@mslgroup.com
Braeburn...
Enjoy.
cl.
Behshad Sheldon
President and CEO
Behshad Sheldon has more than 25 years of experience leading pharmaceutical development and commercialization in the United States and globally. Prior to joining Braeburn, Behshad spent 10 years at Otsuka Pharmaceuticals, having co-founded the Otsuka Princeton office in 2002. Ms. Sheldon last served as a member of the board of directors of the Otsuka R&D organization, contributing to the oversight of 18 pre-approval programs for 13 products in CNS, cardio-renal, pain, dermatology, and oncology. Simultaneously, she served as senior vice president, patient & branding strategy in the commercial organization, where she was responsible for global and United States marketing, alliance management, and early development strategy. Prior to Otsuka, Behshad held positions with increasing responsibility at SmithKline Beecham and Bristol-Myers Squibb. Throughout her 27-year career, Behshad has driven the success of blockbuster products such as Glucophage, Plavix, and Abilify, and has contributed to several strategic alliances and acquisitions, including the landmark 2011 agreement between Otsuka and Lundbeck involving 5 CNS products. Behshad holds a BS degree in Neuroscience from the University of Rochester.
ENTA: Dew... Spot-on. Thank you.
cl.
Dew... Sorry about the muddle.
Bottom Line: your last ENTA Valuation Model showed $76/share. As my attempt to update your Model to derive a new valuation share price was unsuccessful, was curious if you were working on an ENTA Valuation update?
TIA.
cl
03 Feb 2015 Re: ENTA Valuation Model (updated)
Dew... I tried to update your Valuation but cannot. Was just trying to go (+/-) on a PPS of $76 but came up with... well, it was a 'dreamer' high PPS so was wondering if you have a brief, back-of-the-envelope PPS to share.
As always, we all thank you for your ENTA research and shared writings in advance.
cl.
"Adding the value components above gives $52+10+14 = $76/sh."
Quote:
…when you look back at your late 2013 ENTA valuation model, is there anything that has changed in terms of pricing, potential market share, future competition, or anything else that would cause you to change your investment thesis today?
Based on ABBV’s guidance (#msg-110484812), I remain comfortable with my model’s projection of $4.1B peak annualized sales of V-Pak (excluding Japan), which generates approximately $205M of peak annualized pre-tax royalty income and $127M of peak royalty income on a fully-taxed basis (#msg-94993406).
V-Pak’s blended average selling price in the US/EU will probably be a little lower than my old model’s projection of $41K (derived from $60K US and $25K EU), but the lower ASP is offset by higher patient volume than I presumed in the old model owing to the treatment access for early-stage patients that certain US payers have granted in exchange for price discounts (e.g. #msg-109286130).
Applying my model’s multiplier of 8x to the $127M figure above gives a value of $1.02B or about $52/sh for this asset. Although the 8x multiplier might seem a little high, it’s justified, IMO, by applying it to fully-taxed royalty income, which clearly understates the actual cash flow to be derived from the royalties.
I’m still comfortable with the old model’s $100M figure for the value of the HCV program in Japan—especially after the release of the phase-3 data from the GIFT-1 study (#msg-110425636). The ABT-493/ABT-530 next-generation HCV program (which I valued at $50M in Dec 2013) is now worth $100M, IMO, insofar as the program has advanced to phase-2b with no known hitches. Thus, these two assets add $200M of value or about $10/sh.
At this point, I’m ascribing no value to EDP-239, the preclinical HCV compounds, or the preclinical NASH program.
What’s left to be added is ENTA’s cash and expected milestone payments. (I haven’t applied taxes to the milestone payments because they will be covered by ENTA’s net loss carryforwards.) At 9/30/14, ENTA had $132M of cash; $125M was earned in December/January for V-Pak approval in the US and EU; and $30M is coming for approval of the 2-DAA HCV regimen in Japan. Adding in these milestone payments and deducting estimated cash operating expenses of $10M for 4Q14 and 2015 to date gives a pro forma cash balance of $277M or about $14/sh.
Adding the value components above gives $52+10+14 = $76/sh. Although this is slightly lower than the $81/sh figure in the old valuation model, ENTA is arguably worth more now than it was then because the risk of FDA or EMA delay has been eliminated and the royalty stream has already started (instead of being one year away).
Shorts covering?
cl
AMDA... xrymd...
Thanks doc; I do appreciate your assist. However, your response directly leads to one additional question, Did you liquidate your AMDA $0.27 PPS position?
Thanks in advance.
cl.
AMDA... xrymd...
Any thoughts on AMDA's future reference finance, FDA, PPS?
Thanks for the heads-up on AMDA. It is an interesting company. And, profitable to date.
cl.
AMRN...
So Dew, are you still a holder of and/or believer in AMRN?
Disclosure: Long.
Thanks as always.
cl.
Dew...
Do not see MNTA is your 'My Stocks' portfolio. Did you sell out your position or ...
As always, thanks in advance.
cl
AMDA
xrymd... Are you adding shares today? I too think this is an interesting company. Horrible financing, yet, a very interesting company nonetheless.
TIA.
cl
floblu14...
I, like you, have been watching the PPS. Thus, I strongly concur with your post. MNTA folks should just keep doing...
cl.
A rule you say...
Please add my name to that list ASAP.
r.
cl
AVNR... Did not think anyone would remember my post reference Avanir.
Nonetheless, I did sell out my positions for modest gains almost immediately post P2 announcement. Was waiting for the Phase Announcement (e.g., a PPS bounce), got it, & then, I bounced. Thanks to your board and its posters, I think I have learned something over the years since my VIRS days.
Thanks Dew.
cl.
AVNR... thank you all for your responses...
My DD on AVNR has been verified. So has Dew's byline that goes something like this: 'The efficient-market hypothesis is dung'.
BLUF: a P2 caused this massive increase in PPS added by short covering.
Nonetheless, I'll take the profit.
cl
Comments from anyone on Avanir...
Not just on being #1 in the NASDAQ Pre-market but Avanir's future outlook as a company.
NASDAQ - Pre-Market Ten Most Advanced
Symbol AVNR
Company Avanir Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/extended-trading/premarket-mostactive.aspx#ixzz3DOA7O2pd
Thanks.
cl
MNTA...
I do not have a post-approval, bump value per share but $15.00 per share is both realistic and a 40%+ gain. 40% would be a very highly regarded development IMO.
r.
cl.
MNTA...
Great. Thanks Dew.
cl.
Dew... Reference MNTA...
Due to recent news, do you have time to post a MNTA update?
Seems to me this -4.0% is an opportunity to add.
Comment(s) appreciated.
cl.
Dew...
Reference MNTA...
Due to recent news, do you have time to post a MNTA update?
Seems to me this -4.0% is an opportunity to add.
Comment(s) appreciated.
cl.
I have personally suffered with multiple biotechs & techs running to < $1.00 USD. Some went Chapter; some were sold pennies on-the-dollar.
I figure GALE to end up around a buck and pennies. Then, a few bounces unless there is either bad management news or even bad rumours. Rumours = reality.
Finally, a recovery.
Note: a recovery from $1.00 to $2.00 is 100% gain for someone.
cl.
I am neither short nor long; will probably go long in a month or so.
Concur...
cl
DD...
#1: Contract to sell xTons of future crop.
Other benefits...
Subsidies, crop insurance, deregulation, and yes, commodity futures.
As for #1, most farmers contract to sell xTons to ensure xProfit and then spec on rest of crop. Price flux causes decision on next year's crop (type of grain) and winter cover crop. Example, winter wheat - take subsidies but then required days in ground (& harvest) and thus, a shorter soy growing period next season.
Farmer saying: 'Never even (rich) until the check is in the bank, not just standing on the steps outside'. Guess one has to be a farmer to understand that saying.
Virginia high school farmer friends (brothers) sued by Monsanto two years ago. They settled @ trial.
r.
chantillylive
since when did Massachusetts care about the apposite stewardship of money? California and the new Obama Motors show how much government does not care about stewardship of taxpayers' jewels.
ur friendly,
cl.
"You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it."
- Dr. Adrian Rogers, 1931 - 2005
i just might... [gym: thanks for posting.]
the meeting site is located in rockville, md, at the hilton; about 25 miles from my house & 14 from work.
however, i do not know if my heart can handle a delay, deferral, or disapproval. i might not ever sally forth from the bar (and, i don’t even imbibe alcoholic beverages).
ur friendly,
cl.
who can attend on friday?
just wondering as i can skip work friday pm and attend but i've forgotten if this type of hearing is open or closed.
cl.
pphmlover...
"left out" you write, me too. can't listen at work.
we will find out soon enough. the pps will tell us what happened and/or what is about to happen.
ur friendly,
cl.