Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Da Deven Enterprise SERVER?
did you say SERVER?
could SUNW be on the horizon?
dutchbj....Maybe so. But I wonder why
SKS never mentioned it (or Dell)if it is salient or important or ON TOPIC as has been inferred.
Hey...don't get me wrong. I pray that what kevin inferred is ABSOLUTELY TRUE. I have been the one who has been evangelizing the big potential of the PUBLIC SECTOR for us!
But, kevin seemed to infer it was a pretty big order.
Maybe i am totally wrong here. Just better to be safe......
IMHO
kant Frankly, if kevin knows this kinda info.............
then he better be pretty careful about how he 'spreads' it around....IMHO.
Technically, it may not be considered 'inside info' (i am not a lawyer) but it comes pretty close to it....and regardless it could be sensitive info no matter how you slice it.
SO....if what kevin says is true, then he better be sure that he can distribute this sort of info.
IMHO as always......
TT...funny how people can view a qtrly report
in different ways. Frankly, I think the Q4 result was OK. I had figured on a lower number. We made good progress by the end of the year.
Q1 will show very good progress.....i expect about 300K. Q2 will show about 600k plus. Then we start seeing some interesting numbers by Q3.
I am a realist. These are doable numbers given our new business relationships. If they don't happen, then we have to go back to the proverbial drawingboard.
gokite YUP! totally agree.
these are estimates. But the sheer numbers and global deployment cannot be downplayed.
Thanks again.
gokite That is good stuff!
Thanks. OK........I am thinking about $1million by mid year. Q3 alone will show $2million plus. Q4 will show $4 million plus...
Total about $7 million.
This precludes the possibility of a couple of BIG CONTRACTS that are bookable.....coming from the Govt. These Govt contracts could run in the $5 million plus range.
So anyway....we are in the same ballpark. I am more conservative.....but the KEY THING is the Momentum.
We are in sync re the MOMENTUM.
FY2006 should show HUGE NUMBERS and then FY2007 should be literally OFF THE CHARTS!
IMHO.....
gokite...Let's say that 10% of 50 million...............
is activated. This would equate to 5 million activated TPMs. Now if we say that Wave gets a measly buck from each, then we are talkin' $5 million. This is the low end of my forecast for FY2005.
Is this reasonably Conservative?
pls provide feedback
Like the doc says
relax.....angst don't help nutin'.
everyone ought to take a deep breath and check back in about 12 weeks.
StocWatcher Good Post!
I am figuring about $5million to $10 million this year. Most of this ought to be in the 2nd Half.
FY2006 should prove interesting. Most of the revenue generators ought to be kicking in by then. I am looking for more than $100 million.
The above would include some PUBLIC SECTOR deals. These could be significant (a single contract could run $10 million or more).
FY2007 is a wild card. But, if i project a revenue growth trajectory (at the early part of the cycle) of 200%, then it is conceivable to pencil in about $300 million (or at least that sort of 'run rate')for the year. It could be that we see less than that, but by the Q4 of FY2007 revenues could be ticking along at $70 million/qtr.
IMHO....................
unix yeah yeah we will see.
we will see how you try to spin your way outta your forecast. Oh...i am sure of one thing. You will attempt some sort of feeble defense. Can't wait to hear what it could be.NNNNOOOOTTTTTTTTT.....
unix you missed entirely the IMPROVEMENT.....
you missed the positive trend. This is key.
You were in backslide mode which puts you squarely on the wrong side of the proverbial 'fence' going forward.
In short, given your outlook of 'stagnant growth' you are in essence in the 'grossly wrong' category.
remember....your forecast is 250k for FY2005. This will put u in the 'silly group' in about 3 months.
heh heh....
cmf
IMHO, unix forgot to add zeros.
heh heh heh..
unix
Your forecast was terrible. You have a forecast of 250K for the entire FY2005. I believe that Wave Systems will approximately hit that number (or exceed) in the First Qtr alone!
With all due respect, how are you able to be so wrong?
heh heh heh...
snackman That is too aggressive for FY2005.
This year expect only about $5million to $10million.
BUT.....FY2006 will be HUGE because a number of revenue generators will all come together....PUBLIC SECTOR CONTRACTS as well as retail, Dell, Mr. Softee and maybe some wireless stuff...via INTEL.
BUT...FY2007! WWWWHHHHHHOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA......
Hold on to your pants, buddy!!!!
that is when the real fun starts.
heh heh heh...
Bull_Dolphin.......................
minimum of $5 million for FY2005
over $100 million for FY2006
over $300 million for FY2007
IMHO..........
RWK Exactly! it was a GOOD QUARTER!
I think we will see a doubling/tripling each qtr going forward.
And I am being CONSERVATIV....believe it or not. Of course, we are starting from a low revenue base (ha ha ha) but that's OK.
We will see EXCELLENT GROWTH.
FY2006 will see OVER $100 million.
and 2007? Well, heh heh heh.....let's not go there. All i can say that we could be STINKING FILTHY RICH.....
ha ha ha
Onda...that's OK w/ me.
I am pretty confident that the hockey stick curve starts in about 3 months. If the stock drifts until then, then I have no problem with that because it just means accumulation.
I am in no hurry. BUT.....Wave Systems has to show very very MEANINGFUL improvement by the end of FY2005. Otherwise, we have a bone to pick....
Honestly, I think everyone should be VERY HAPPY..............
with this qtr performance. It was pretty good. They didn' tap their deferred revenues and that was pretty conservative.
I like it.
Excellent.
waverider sorry but I tried to suggest to you............
that the bar ought to be set low for the next 6 months. OVER DELIVER.
read the Armp revenue forecast. It is pretty accurate. I don't think you will have to wait a year.
IMHO.......................
tampa this Qtr was pretty good. I was expecting less.
I think you will see doubling/tripling of revs per qtr for the next couple of qtrs....and then a HUGE increase in the 2nd half of FY2005. I still see about $5 million to $10 million for FY2005. Then, I think we will see over $100 million in 2006.
And 2007? Well, just don't be 'short'!
ha ha ha .......
FlyFisher....That's very very GOOD.
very conservative accounting.
excellent
Lots of ways to raise cash... if it's needed.
who knows what mechanism? I would like a strategic partner this go around.
hey, what was your revenue forecast anyway?
ha ha ha....
kathleen I expect revenues will double & triple...........
each qtr going forward. Looking for about $5 million to $10 million in FY2005. For FY2006 we ought to be north of $100 million.
and 2007? Well, ha ha ha......let's not go there!
ha ha ha ha ha...............
OK Not too bad. Better than I expected.
Remember KEEP THE BAR LOW AND OVER DELIVER!
Looking for significant sequential improvement qtr over qtr with the 2nd half of 2005 showing the HOCKEY STICK HANDLE PHENOMENON!
Let's see what happens next!
Great.
Good advice by Snackman
As I said yesterday and the day before, it is SMART to be CONSERVATIVE with the Q4 numbers. Keep the 'bar low' and then over deliver.
The Armp Revenue Model is CONSERVATIVE, REASONABLE and SMART. It sees FY2005 revenues about $7 million. It sees FY2006 revenues well over $100 million. This takes into account the buildup process.
Now....having said the above Wave Systems has logged some deferred revenues that they can book (appropriately) over the next couple of qtrs.....which would represent GOOD IMPROVEMENT until that point in time when revenues REALLY KICK IN from the sales buildup process (& activation therefrom)from our new ventures with Dell and Intel.
The ace in the hole is the PUBLIC SECTOR. All it takes is ONE BIG ORDER from a prime Contractor (let's say EDS or Northrop or whomever)and then the Dam can break overnight!
Oh well...just some musings before the CC.
awk thanks. That seems to sorta answer the SUNW.............
query.
Weby Couple things
First, I don't meet posters here because i never thought that was a prerequisite. But, I think it is a nice thing for members to do that if they wish to. As for myself, I have been a staunch supporter of Wave Systems and I have no agenda other than seeing this enterprise suceed....namely because I want to get STINKING FILTHY RICH!!!!
Second, I have done alot of 'googling' around on SUNW and couldn't find anything. That's why I asked the question. As simple as that.
Third, I think it is time for us to see results. We can't go on forever the way we have over the last 8 years. I don't expect 500K like you.....but I want to start seeing some improvement. I expect MEANINGFUL improvement within 3 qtrs. If it doesn't happen, then as they said in Houston, "We may have a problem.".
IMHO.........................
Weby THAT'S A GREAT POST AND REPLY! THANKS.
As always, you are mostly right on the money. Couple of things i will quibble with you here and there, but you are mostly correct.
Let me get back to you, if I may.
P.S. I don't think I will be able to meet you at L.V. because the bouncers at the door won't let me in. Hmmmm....I wonder why? Ha Ha.....
Chris Well, I don't have the luxury of
having personal conversations with Lark so I cannot reply to that line of discussion.
It is puzzling. One would think that SUNW and Wave Systems would be more in sync.
Very puzzling........
Maybe WINTEL told Wave Systems to not bother with SUNW....
I can visualize that picture, actually.
Chris. As I recall, SUNW introduced Wave Systems......
to N*Able or vice versa way way way back when. The acquisition of N*Able is probably Wave Systems "FINEST HOUR" (or least one of them!) heretofore.
SO....no one can tell me that SUNW doesn't know ALL ABOUT Wave Systems. The history goes way back!
And so....this is what puzzles me. The whole software subscription model that SUNW is espousing fits like a GLOVE into what Wave Systems is promulgating.
But we see nothing...we hear nothing.
It puzzles me greatly.
I don't buy your spin on it. Sorry.
Weby Darn it. So they join in 2003 as a Promoter.....
Member and I stand corrected. I am NOT going to apologize because it was an unintended error. BTW, I own a ton of shares too. Do you think I don't agonize as well? Is the agony the sole property of just a few posters here? Please...be a little fair.
OK....the question remains. Why isn't SUNW getting in on the act? I read Chris's explanation but I don't buy it.
Do you have any thoughts about this issue? SUNW is a big player and they were involved with Wave Systems (didn't they introduce Wave Systems to N*Able or vice versa???) way way way back when....and now they have dropped off the radar.
Weby, I have been around as long as you on this investment more or less. It is more that EIGHT years now that I have been a believer in this company. We HAVE to start getting some results sooner or later....don't ya think????
SUNW is a founding member of the TCG!
how come SUNW is not on the radar screen?
anyone have any comments or ideas?
PLS DO NOT DELETE THIS ON TOPIC AND RELEVANT QUESTION!
THANK YOU!
Weby I think it will be a hockey stick outlook......
but the next couple of qtrs will be an Improvement but nothing spectacular. As I have stated before, I think Armp's forecast is probably pretty accurate. FY2005 will be pretty good....somewhere between $5million to $10 million. FY2006 will be over $100 million.
This qtr will be a nonevent revenue wise. I am concerned that some on this board (albeit censored)are too aggressive for the next couple of qtrs. Some are looking for $400,000 or more. Maybe it will happen but I don't think so. I think the bar should be set low and then let us hurdle over it in a BIG WAY. Much better that way.
So, I am not 'cheerleading' here but just being reasonable. And BTW, revenue improvement is very very IMPORTANT and Wave only has about 3 qtrs to show its stuff. IMHO.............
wheretoturn I have given my assessment on revenue.
see my prior posts. It seems very few here want to discuss this very ON TOPIC issue. I am BULLISH over the next 18 mos.
so it goes.
Still Wondering Why SUNW isn't on the radar yet
anyone have any ideas?
thanks
bake56 FWIW I am buying a tad more too.
things will start heating up soon. just a hunch
IMHO........
bake56 Yes, Dell Does List TPMS!!! read here:
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/products/compare.aspx/latit?c=us&cs=&l=en&s=bsd&
TPMs specified all over the map!!
jakes We'll see/eom
FWIW Don't think we'll see PR til after CC...................
don't want to frontrun the Quarterly Conf.
IMHO............
LadyX, Guess we'll have to agree to DISAGREE.
Revenue metrics is a very IMPORTANT measuring tool of a company's progress. Shareholders should be expected to have some sort of expectation of a company's progress. To say one has no expectation as a shareholder of WAVX in the company's topline progress is like saying you have no expectation of a child's progress in reading&math at school.
Having said the above, a shareholder can be conservative, middle of the road or aggressive in the EXPECTATION LEVEL. For myself, I think we should be conservative because these new relationships are just starting.
But, shareholders should have some level of expectation. To do otherwise is a bit nutty.
IMHO.....