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nice find sox
I especially like this paragraph "The p53 protein plays an essential role as a cancer suppressor gene. Previous studies have shown that p53 is the most frequently altered gene in more than half of human cancer types. Therefore, delivering functional copies of p53 may be a promising antitumor strategy for some malignant tumors, as some gene therapy studies have already shown."
CTIX will crush the stats....."Second acts in the biotech business are hard: 56% of the drug firms that received an FDA approval between 1950 and 2011 did so only once." How about 4 times +
https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2014/04/16/a-lucky-drug-made-pharmacyclics-robert-duggan-a-billionaire-will-long-term-success-follow/#3c0cf2bf5cf6
amazing how many small biotechs spiked up in 2014 and are now down 70-90%....almost like it was organized (crime that is)......
great post Cabel...I agree wholeheartedly except with your last statement...."whereas now if we get PASI75 of 50% we will skyrocket and surely be able to make a deal.".....I think you may have it reversed based on the manipulation of this stock we likely need a deal before we see a significant rise (which is just a matter of time IMO)
Aruda just proved he is not the culprit.
How can we be so sure?
Why don't Sullivan/Leo get Patrick Byrne involved with going after the illegal stock behavior? He seems like a rock star who's won multiple law suits against these criminals.
Per wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_M._Byrne
"Campaign against naked shorting and analysts
Byrne said the conspiracy included hedge funds, journalists, investigators, trial lawyers, the SEC, and Eliot Spitzer. Fortune writer Bethany McLean said that Byrne had become a "hero to those who believe that short-sellers are the operators of Wall Street's ultimate black box, predators who destroy companies through innuendo, bullying, political connections—and sometimes through an illegal practice known as 'naked shorting.'"
The bigger question in my mind is why is the loan still on the books? Granted, CTIX really needed the loan 6 or 7 years ago. But with the Aspire agreement in place the last few years why wouldn't the company pay off high cost debt? Especially if it had been done at 3 or 4 pps...
far be it for Leo to over promise and under deliver.....when will he learn....
getting a little nervous sweaty waiting for da bomb?! lol just walk away from the screen.....don't worry bout it.....
so you believe legalizing MJ is not for the good of the country?
no one here has given a convincing argument that VLN cigarettes are going to increase revenue to the government. My contention is they will seriously lower sales, and tax revenue.
Isn't it great XXII has the answer to both the health issue (VLN) and the tax issue (muchos taxes possible with legalizing hemp and/or MJ recreationally).......come on Trump don't let Trudeau beat you to the punch!!! After all it's good for business!!
and why is that because they don't believe the science?.....i guess you and mako refer to the same "experts" lol
Or maybe he has to pay his Vegas gambling debt
This must be SEC's low hanging fruit.....the companies are listed and easy to target versus short attackers who no doubt hide their identity multiple ways and are paid by hard-to-track-down shadowy figures (likely overseas) who may have some legal protection in their home country.
Given the tremendous potential of B, not only for OM, UP, and Abbassi but also a host of other indications as yet unknown, I'd prefer to see a partnership that has a modest upfront payment say $250mil, partner pays for bulk of future trials, and then CTIX retains 50% of future sales. I believe retaining half of billions of future sales is where the real value is realized.
I'd take a big pharma partner....their lobbyists likely have comparable influence
I agree. I sure hope BAT doesn't pay us another $7mill so we can move on and partner with another company who wants to take this technology to the next level. If British American Tobacco wasn't behind the UK changing the nicotine disclosure laws they sure as heck weren't helping us any by trying to lobby against it....
I don't understand why we'd want to sell our VLN product at a discount. Wouldn't that position the product as a lower market less prestigious product that smokers may not want to be associated with. I believe we should charge a premium for our product and be an aspirational brand that image conscious smokers want to be seen smoking. For those smokers thinking about the economics they can justify paying a premium since they'll enjoy the health and financial benefits of smoking fewer cigarettes.
Sounds like a job for Mr. Sullivan. Anyone have his email?
What do you say we each kick in $50k and buy another 2 million shares? Maybe we could get them for .88?
Interesting point. I do wonder if Leo is so focused on "swinging for the fence" he doesn't miss opportunities to hit a few singles to get a run on the board
What a coincidence....another negative AF article hours after a positive news story....shall we place bets on how long after the positive topline results are published a negative AF article comes out.....I'll start I say 18 hours.....is it closest without going over? I'm guessing he has most of it pre-written and fills in a few blanks and hits send.....
Hasn't B-UP already knocked it out of the park? 100% of participants improved after treatment (half of those remission). Granted it's a small sample but what other drug in this space has come close to these kinds of responses? Does BP really need an approved drug before they pounce? That's certainly not what we've seen in the past.....too hungry to latch onto the next big thing before the competition....
If you get 50% of sales on the backend and partners fund trials does it really matter how much you get up front or how many additional indications can be brought to market? Take 50-100 million up front and bobs your uncle.....
well we certainly have the blockbuster compounds to get there.....just a matter of time and investment in trials.....amazing to see how many billions CTIX could generate annually....and while we're still on "the front 9" the weather is great and the wind is on our backs.....is it too early in the season for golf analogies?
anyone else find this odd?
"since the spring of 2016, European Union regulations no longer permitted to disclose the nicotine yield on our MAGIC cigarette packaging. And so rather than continuing to expand MAGIC sales without the ability to disclose the remarkably low nicotine yield of our MAGIC cigarettes, we've opted for secure European regulatory approvals for a Very Low Nicotine cigarettes."
Seems to me someone (aka Big T) didn't want us gaining an upper hand and had their friends in Govt change the regulations....
nicotine levels have been disclosed on all cigarette packaging in Canada for decades.....
I'm guessing Leo might accept 500 million for P.....if it came with 50% royalties....after all that's where the real money is
I like the comparison to Mongersen. Similar UP results and after phase 2 got $710 million upfront and $1.9 billion in development milestones!!
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/partnering/celgene-s-2-6b-deal-for-crohn-s-drug-pays-off-promising-phii
Note that Scott Smith leads Celgene's inflammation and immunology group....maybe that explains his posts on this board :)
Will Leo ever learn to under promise and over deliver?! #credibility
I agree CTIX has more potential.....once we get to commercialization stage the rubber hits the road...
"Incyte wrapped up 2016 with $1.1 billion in sales, up 47%, and EPS of 54 cents, up from 3 cents in 2015."
Their market cap is 23 Billion......
If CTIX wants to be the next Regeneron wouldn't they model similar deals...ie 50% shared revenue on the backend with partner funding trials (CTIX's 50% share of trial costs to be paid from future profits if any)?
So other potential psoriasis drugs (less proven than Purisol) have been sold for the equivalent of 6-7 dollars per share and you'd sell the whole company for 3 bucks.....you're really brilliant....
That's debatable. Seems to me PM simply wants to be SEEN as a responsible seller of a risky product.....they don't necessarily want to change their risky product or promote something different. It's all about minimizing risk of further lawsuits.
I'm concerned with some of management's moves....
1.Why hire Piezer in the first place...surely his prior reputation spoke volumes (major red flag)....it cost the company millions for zero results and shareholders get screwed with lawsuit
2.Magic in Spain....turns out they don't like the taste....really nobody thought to even take over a pack to try out on folks in a bar one night?? BTW where's the update on how the new filter has improved acceptance?
3.Bio partner just around corner....ah ya....
4.Taking a year, and paying a CRO millions, to submit brand A to FDA.....then FDA says you asked for the wrong/weak statement approval....go try again and this time use all the research we've paid for to come up with a real marketing savvy claim....and we wait....
If this is how Harvard trains their marketing geniuses then maybe they better revamp their courses....
Not only is K bioavailability much better than Ibrutinib, hopefully the list of side effects will be much lower. Also I really like this part (hopefully prices have gone up since 2011)..."In 2011 after the drug had completed Phase II trials, Johnson & Johnson and Pharmacyclics agreed to co-develop the drug, and J&J paid paid Pharmacyclics $150 million upfront and $825 million in milestones."
Medical use
Ibrutinib is used to treat mantle cell lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and Waldenstrom's macroglobulinemia.[2][3]
Adverse effects
Very common (>10% frequency) adverse effects include pneumonia, upper respiratory tract infection, sinusitis, skin infection, low neutrophil count, low platelet counts, headache, bleeding, bruising, diarrhea, vomiting, inflammation of mouth and lips, nausea, constipation, rash, joint pain, muscle spasms, musculoskeletal pain, fever, and edema.[2]
Common (1–10% frequency) adverse effects include sepsis, urinary tract infection, non-melanoma skin cancer (basal-cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma), low leukocyte count, low lymphocyte count, interstitial lung disease, tumor lysis syndrome, high uric acid levels, dizziness, blurred vision, atrial fibrillation subdural hematoma, nosebleeds, small bruises from broken blood vessels, high blood pressure, hives, and skin redness or blushing.[2]
The biologics achieve PASI75 scores of 60-70% and cost around $50k/yr with some harmful side effects.
Otezla's PASI75 score was 33%, again with unpleasant side effects.
If Purisol simply duplicates in 2a results with few side effects we'll have a multi-billion dollar a year winner here. Of course with the higher dosage we expect even better results....maybe 60-70% like biologics....talk about blowing the doors off.....
"PDE4 Inhibitors. Celgene’s twice daily oral therapy for psoriasis, Otezla (apremilast), is a small molecule inhibitor of the enzyme phosphodiesterase 4. In the pivotal trial for apremilast, 33.1% of subjects receiving drug achieved PASI75, compared to 5.3% for patients on placebo. Apremilast is generally well tolerated, although some patients experience gastrointestinal side effects, including diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting. Treatment is estimated to cost approximately $22,500 per year."
I wonder what kind of BS potshot they're going to have to post when a partnership is announced.....can't wait to see their underwear pulled over their heads.....
maybe this is a job for julian assange....
unless of course they're in cahoots....oh wait criminals working together....that would never happen....
probably because Mako knows pros would laugh off this "research"