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I am not too much worried about some of the posters here. I think many of those have not been in business. They look backward and are risk averse. I see it as a form of entertainment.
Every business plan in whatever business is based on market predictions and expectations, belief in own organizational capabilities, likely competitor moves. All is fluid and requires adaptive forward planning. It’s what makes business and equally what makes investing in business.
That’s why we are here, because we believe and expect the business plan to be executed successfully.
Investing also requires the ability to deal with ambiguity, complexity, pro’s and con’s and to adapt to changing circumstances.
Especially when you invest in an innovative ( unique) and disruptive technology in an established trillion dollar industry you need to understand the industry dynamics and the huge financial implications for all industry participants, both positive and negative.
My hope is that the industry financial specialist at the large investment banks are well aware of the Lightwave opportunity and don’t kill a promising technology for the USA and the globe. The messengers here (including myself) are currently being played. I hope the good guys win and that Lightwave gets the opportunity to execute its plan successfully.The upside is ‘limitless’ and the downside is small and becoming absolutely less interesting financially by the day.
I firmly belief in the expectations and believes as put down in the recent 10Q, contrary to some of our backward looking messengers.
In fact if you can only look backward you shouldn’t invest at all. Investing by looking backward is really for dummies. Everyone had the right to express his or her opinion of course, but being ‘ critical’ based on the past doesn’t add any value for the shareholders.
The first big deal and most ‘ critical’ messengers will disappear faster than the speed of light, except GP of course.
Is a foundry like TSMC or Intel a tier 1? I think so. Jabil is a Tier 1 contract manufacturer and there are also OSAT’s who receive diced wafers from foundries and other components to make an integrated product ( e.g. transceiver, other applications)
There are Tier 1 material companies ( e.g. Macom, Applied Materials), Tier 1 device manufacturers e.g. transceivers, lasers, Tier 1 system building companies and Tier 1 final customers: hyperscalers, car manufacturers, health care companies etc
Lightwave told us they focus on datacom and therefore we tend to expect deals with Google, AMS and Meta. That may well be, but deals may also involve material sales, license and technical assistance agreement( royalty agreements with any of the companies in the supply chain and the final customers for transceivers.
By the way the video is from 3 months ago. Good to know that the problems described by Jabil and Silitronics may well have been solved already. Interesting to see that Global Foundries 256 Gbps Fotonix 45 eco system platform has 8 lasers, 8 X 32Ghz modulators. It’s a complicated, expensive and power hungry piece of evolutionary product development on a 300 mm silicon photonics wafer. Can’t see this compete over time with a Lightwave based platform.
Global Foundries presentation is on the video as well.
Just been listening ( Optica video from a few weeks ago ) to Jabil ( one of the largest contract manufacturer) and Silitronics (OSAT) challenges in scaling up silicon photonics heterogeneous integration after receiving wafers (PIC’s) from foundries and components from various suppliers. Both companies are the last leg in the supply line of finished products e.g. transceivers to the hyperscalers, let’s say the Googles, Ams’s and Meta’s of the world. Both confirmed that end user demand of hyperscalers is exploding, but that their manufacturing mass volume and testing challenges are the biggest issues right now and are being addressed.
I guess Lightwave and the various foundries in the supply chain have done their part, the OSAT’s and contract manufacturers are the current hold up and they are working hard to solve these issues . Message here don’t worry, it’s our mission in life. I remember Lebby saying if we get to the point of needing outside manufacturing capacity we have ourselves created a luxury problem.
Spartex. I took the top 5 by marketshare based on Lebby’s statement ‘ multinational ‘ pluggable transceiver companies. Here is another list with transceiver companies with Cisco included and a number of Chinese companies.
Major Optical Transceiver companies include:
Coherent Corp. (US)
INNOLIGHT (China)
Accelink Technology Co. Ltd. (China)
Cisco Systems, Inc. (US)
Hisense Broadband, Inc. (China)
Lumentum Operations LLC (US)
Sumitomo Electric Industries, Ltd. (Japan)
Broadcom Inc. (US)
Fujitsu Optical Components Limited (Japan)
Intel Corporation (US)
This is what I pulled off the internet. Not sure Lebby wants to conceal anything. If he casually drops names, I normally take him serious. Using names of reputable companies may otherwise lead to legal claims by the companies in question or may even be considered misleading shareholders. So again, I take his information on face value and as serious.
See what CEO’ s of Internet companies are really worried about:
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/digitalbridge-ceo-data-centers-will-run-out-of-power-in-two-years/
Yes, but light or data still need to go in and out of storage. Lightwave Logic’s 9mm modulators would probably be the best option both as pluggable or on board photonics since they are so miniature and power efficient.
Here is a scientific paper on a possible change from Lithium Niobate with its inherent limitations in fabrication and scaling to Lithium Tantalate. It would seem it would solve some of the scaling issues, but bandwidth remains 40 Ghz and other performance parameters are clearly inferior to Lightwave . .
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07369-1
Taking Lightcounting market forecasts as a basis and assuming Lightwave could achieve a 50% marketshare in high speed transceivers ( 800G and up) - which is not ubiquity- and a low 10% marketshare in the incumbent market ( up to 200G) this would translate in a revenue ( assuming packaged modulators are 35% of total transceiver cost) of around 12 Billion times 35% is = $ 4.2 Billion over the next 5 years. Assume an OLED margin of 85% which results in $ 3.6 Billion profit over 5 years or 700 million average per year. Using OLED’ s Price/ Earnings ratio of 40 would than deliver a theoretical market capitalization of $ 28 Billions.
In the 10Q reference is made to the Largest Tier 1 pluggable transceiver companies . Here are the most likely top 5 candidates:
1. Finisar Corporation II-VI
2. NADDOD Pte Ltd
3. Lumentum Holdings Inc.
4. Broadcom Inc.
5. Intel Corporation
Ethernet optical transceiver forecast including an estimate for the contribution of optical connectivity for AI clusters to this market.
Total sales of optical transceivers for applications in AI clusters ( high speed 800G and up) will add up to $17.6 billion over the next 5 years – indeed a very large number, considering that all other applications of Ethernet transceivers combined will generate $28.5 billion over the same period. ( Source: Lightcounting).
Well, if a swarm of locusts descended on this board. I bought a few days ago for 3,87 still a nice buy. With the 10Q published tonight today’s action seems like last orchestrated desperate effort for shares. I would say ideal moment to cover or to accumulate. Don’t forget friction means heat and we longs have quite some experience with this game. Have a nice weekend and hopefully a good 10Q read ( if not delayed, because they may want to prop it up with some exciting news).
Maybe good to realize that our messages have a power footprint:
Text-based message use 0.003-0.014 watt-hours (Wh)
Image message: 0.01-0.2 Wh
Video message: 0.1-10 Wh
Frequent and non sensical messages are a waste.
Rikkie, in the bigger picture these shorts are nothing to worry about. The short opportunity here is minuscule compared to what other opportunities are available in the market. In other words a bunch of unfortunate gamblers,
got inadvertently stuck and are trying with time progressing to get out slowly, There are people who play this for fun and short term trading missing the long term opportunity. That’s reality some play it long and get potentially awfully rich if it works out, ,some play this short time and risk averse for a few pennies in the dollar day by day. Anyway it doesn’t work out as planned both stand to lose. Personally I am convinced the longtime waiting will at short term be over.
Very confident that Lightwave will become a household name on Nasdaq and will become a success story.
Have a look at Intel which lost more than 50% of its share value the last 3 years. A company with excellently paid executives, large bonuses, years of revenue, and now government hand outs. A sunset industry.
Lightwave is just starting, just at the beginning of an incredible journey. It’s share price has been going up from a penny stock to 4 dollars now. Yes it’s a bumpy ride, but compare INTEL’s journey as well. Owning shares comes with financial risk. Lightwave’s engagement with multinational Tier 1 is a success story in itself given the disruptive nature of polymer photonics in this trillions of dollars semi conductor industry now challenged to its core by artificial Intelligence.
Every two months a doubling of its data handling coming off from Moore’s ‘spectacular’ law of doubling every two years. A potential business and internet showstopper, requiring a technological breakthrough not seen since the advent of it internet itself. Multinational Tier 1’s volume requirements will be staggering and require careful and an ‘ all hands on deck effort’ from a small company like Lightwave. With Lebby on board it will be done.
Lightwave’s concluded it first deal last year. We still don’t know with whom, Lebby didn’t give guidance even when probed a few times in Belgium. Part of this material supply ( $ 160.000) and license deal ( 50K upfront payment) was based on the requirement of minimum achievable volumes of finished product for a period of several years or quite a penalty payment. I haven’t seen any penalty payment. Jury still out on this one!
The beginning was made, waiting with all of you, to see this company executing its plans. Yes we are still very positive and excited.
Mark Smith indicated a 10 year loan at a 10 year treasury interest rate ( 10 year fixed rate 4,25% , todays price 4,50%) for the loan amount. Hope I looked at the correct rate. That would be awesome, because commercial bank loans would be above two digits. With financing the current discount rate in the feasibility study ( was it 8%?) can be changed and would boost the bottom line as well imo.
" Looking ahead, with the team, technology, intellectual property assets and operational capabilities in place to support our commercialization at scale, we firmly believe that we are well positioned for a future of electro-optic polymer ubiquity. As we move through 2024, we expect continued momentum in our material supply and license agreement program and product design platform that will expand on an exciting new era of commercialization to help to make our next-generation technologies truly ubiquitous in the global internet infrastructure of the future. At no time in history have I been more confident of Lightwave Logic's potential, and I look forward to sharing exciting new milestones during the balance of this year..."
Dr. Michael Lebby commented: "Our newly presented results are incredibly exciting, representing not only the best commercial-grade-compatible polymer modulators to-date, but on commercial 200mm silicon wafers, with performances that fit very well for a 4-channel x 200Gbps (or 800Gbps) pluggable transceiver, as well as the next generation 4-channel x 400Gbps (or 1600Gbps) pluggable transceivers. 200G lanes with clean, open eye diagrams now represent an inflection-point to extend silicon photonics benefits by utilizing the company's polymers to enable much higher data-rate speeds at significantly lower powerconsumption levels. These results will position LWLG to support the burgeoning demand of generative AI as datacenters around the world begin to upgrade their hardware faster than expected to meet the demands of the future.
Maybe Dan you should get yourself a passport and come to Belgium to enjoy its enormous culture in painting, architecture, literature and music. Never too late to become a bit more culturally literate. Wonder what your call in life is Dan? Hope you know that yourself.
Niocorp is in phase II since 15 Apil 2024 when it received its PPL from EXIM.
The PPL indicates that EXIM Bank is prepared to move forward on a financing offer and the corresponding general terms and conditions based upon the information available at the time of application.
After issuance of the PPL, which took place 15 April 2024, EXIM Bank will work with the applicant to proceed to a Final Commitment.
Thanks Walter, that’s a material event. Mentioned in the Q report. Great news. If Niocorp wouldn’t have qualified than the ‘ process would have stopped’ after phase I. Phase II means we move forward. Great news. Finally. We got ourselves a time line.
I know you are a serious shareholder. This message board is a bit like ‘ for or against’ , the days of the ‘many shades of grey’ have passed. See it as a good sign, polarisation is at his peak when the stakes are highest. Don’t think you are the only critical person. Many of us are and yes it takes a long time, but if you critically apply a process of deduction you must admit that the company has continuously reduced risk over time. You shouldn’t give up now that we are closer to a deal than ever before. The share price will follow. I understand you bought your shares at a pretty high price, so your current sentiment is clear to all of us. In hindsight you got your buy advice at an unfortunate moment. I still think the advice was correct, the locked up value here will see daylight soon.
Proto, watch your number 3 on the list: Samsung.
One of the 3 biggest chipmakers in the world.
Early adopter of organic material ( OLED) for displays.
Major shareholder in Universal Display Corporation ( 30-40%, no official data).
Foundry with 200 mm production.
A.o. supplier to Broadcom and Apple
Atikem to me : "... engineers on both sides ( partner (s) and Lightwave) are working their as.s off to make it happen! " In the context of what we know, that can only mean the pressure is 'on' and ' make it happen' means ' finalising' imo. Me: You must be working under some kind of agreement? Atikem: We are. Me: Couple of years ago , I think you had 13 NDA's ? Atikem: We have at least 3 X now.
Hi Dan 51, I may have inadvertently lumped you in with your soulmates. Sorry for that.
Thanks for your kind consideration and your concern for my investment portfolio. Didn’t know I had you as a follower. Feel honored. I honestly don’t feel pressure. I am a long term investor and look at the potential shareholder value here. I look at this from a business perspective, that’s my field of expertise. I am not a trader, I have a long term perspective.
‘ What’s the value of owning the future now?’ That’s the only relevant and logic question. In finance it’s called the Net Present Value.
Why would organizations with access to off market trading continue to accumulate (and suppress daily trading prices in the process )?
Why are analysts circling around Lightwave for quite some time, if they didn’t expect to follow a winner?
Why are GP, Ted, Dan and others even trying to twist the statements of Lightwave’s competitors to suit their opinions ?
Because all consciously or unconsciously understand the value of the proposition at hand. Some embrace it, some fight it for monetary gains.
Nobody denies anymore that LWLG will unlock huge value.
The argument now here, do you believe Lebby or his competitors on timing? Is it 100 meter sprint or 400 meter distance? Surely it’s not a marathon any more. Even Lightwave’s competitors think it’s needed in 2026.
Here we are May 1st 2024. Lebby confirmed business plan timing still in tact. Tier 1 deals in the works since last year. 2025 datacenter infrastructure improvements require decisions this month for the next 3-5 years. LWLG is ready to scale.
I would say Ready Steady Go, the race is on. Personally I expect to see the winner pretty soon,
Sorry, the management of this company has a couple of million dollars each tied up in this company. Shares and share options from 2017 onwards. Even at current low price that is worth a couple of million, which they stand to lose if they would leave the company for whatever reason. That’s millions at todays price and many more if the shareprice rises. Seems to me they have enough of their money at stake. Let me add, I don’t think anybody sold his shares yet and some sold some options for tax reasons, but overall increased their holding. Again, if you want to control me, go and read the SEC documents.
When in your life have you ever seen competition giving compliments to a competitor who threatens their competitive position? Arista and NLM can’t go public and say we are ‘ toast’ . If people here believe in NLM or Arista, I am sure they welcome your support. In fact I would recommend you visit their Ihub site. And as for Mark Lutkowitz I have never seen him acting like that in a public meeting and indirectly offending Bertholsheim who leads the LPO/ LRO industry initiative.Basically telling you are wasting valuable industry time with this initiative.
Just left the Optica meeting in Amsterdam on Lineair Drive Optics. Listened to Andy Bertholsheim and the CTO from NLM.
Few of my take aways:
Andy recognizes that new technologies may be required after 2027. From now on he is focussing on system design simplification and standardization for LPO and LRO. Not ready, need lots of testing, but there is perspective using the linearity of silicon photonics . Need for low power modulators e.g. TFLN organic materials or BTO.
Basically he is working with Arista solutions we saw last year at OFC ( remember 800G comparison with Lightwaves slot modulator with a smaller form factor and a much higher bandwidth)) . Andy sees need for polymers from 2027 when industry hits the bandwidth wall with current ( Arista) solutions. NLM guy confirms planning to be ready from 2026 /2027 onwards. Andy telling that data industry wants proven technology like lasers, silicon photonics and the industry needs to make decisions now for installing mid 2025. Confirmed they need more bandwidth away from 400 to 800G in asap. Question to Andy : Is polymer ready? Andy: I don't know ,I am interested in Arista shipments for 2025 and if polymers come we can easily plug them in.
LWLG has nothing to be afraid of and a competition taking its time. It's incumbent and current performance versus innovative LWLG and its clear path to the future. Why would the industry wait till 2027 if they can have the solution today? Bit dissapointed in the meeting and Mark Lutkowitz was even clearer. He thought the LPO /LRO initiative is a farce and a waste of time.
You need to look in the SEC documents yourself, but management has shares and lots of option grants. I remember options for 2017 were 350.000 at 0,70 cents due in 2027. Each year they accumulate options. These options are probably largely in the money. They have millions of their yearly compensation tied up in options. I would guess many times their yearly salary. No time to investigate at the moment. Look through the 10 k documents.
Interesting article on shorting sentiment.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/devin-nunes-trump-media-stock-congress-00154054
Nice to see by doing some research that NVIDIA, TSMC, Intel, Broadcom and Samsung are the biggest semi conductor companies by market cap. Interesting to see that Samsung is the biggest manufacturer of OLED ( Organic Light Emission Diodes) as well , has a strategic partnership with Universal Display Company and brings market experience with organic materials. Now who would qualify for a strategic partnership with Lightwave and would Intel or Broadcom let Samsung ‘ eat its lunch” ? Interesting speculations.
Personally I like the idea of a strategic partner. For the strategic partner it would mean ‘ exclusivity’ and ‘a handle ‘ on the competition. For Lightwave it means a strong business platform and support for its goal towards ubiquity. For retail shorts it would be unfortunately a ‘ kick in the gut’ and for the Blackrocks, Vanguards it wouldn’t matter. Keep following UDC, LWLG keeps referring to their business model. There is a reason they do so!
Using again the Universal Display Company as a template , you could see a similar scenario unfold for LWLG.
Universal Display Corporation (UDC): A History of Funding
Universal Display Corporation (UDC) is a leading developer and manufacturer of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technologies. Founded in 1994, the company has relied on a variety of funding sources throughout its history to fuel its growth and innovation.
In its early years, UDC primarily relied on venture capital funding.
UDC also formed strategic partnerships with companies like Eastman Kodak and Samsung, which provided additional funding and access to technology markets
In 2001 UDC went public raising $64 million through an initial public offering (IPO).
This provided the company with significant capital to expand its operations and invest in research and development.
UDC has conducted several secondary offerings since its IPO, raising additional capital to support its growth.
The company has also utilized debt financing to fund its operations and acquisitions.
UDC's primary source of funding is currently revenue generated from its licensing agreements and sales of OLED .
The company also maintains a mix of debt and equity financing to support its ongoing operations and investments.
A major investor and strategic partner, Samsung holds a significant stake in UDC.
Numerous institutional investors, including Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street Global Advisors, hold shares in UDC.
Overall, UDC has successfully leveraged a combination of venture capital, strategic partnerships, public offerings, debt financing, and revenue generation to fund its growth and establish itself as a leader in the OLED industry
Sources:
* UDC Investor Relations: https://ir.universaldisplay.com/
* UDC SEC Filings: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/
* Wikipedia: Universal Display Corporation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Display_Corporation
Correct KCC. The question of financial viability is of course always a prime company accountability and consideration. It’s also part of a credit assessment by potential big customers. Not only does the company have enough cash reserves until late summer 2025 and an additional 60 mio shelf, Lebby told us the company had banks on stand by as well in case. Mind you the company has no debt. The company feels that its financial outlook is reasonably well secured.
Yes, if I put A and B together I can’t see any other logical conclusion.
Shazam, let me add that their marketing man ( AH) told me that both engineering teams were working ‘their asses off’ to make it happen. I have a few witnesses who were with me during that conversation. That’s the reason I believe these 4th December deals are still getting closer.
Th, TMSC is moving to silicon photonics for co packaged optics solutions. They have understood that semi conductors have reached their physical limits. Smaller is creating more complexity, more heat, ever more expensive to manufacture and is becoming very costly. The combination of electronics and optics by using photons is next leg. Not implying it has anything to do with Lightwave. This is an industry giant understanding they need to change technology to remain relevant. That is great strategic thinking.They use silicon as material, which happens to work well with Lwlg material.
Th, why do you think TSMC just announced they would get into silicon photonics from 2026 onwards?
You can watch.
Can’t give you a precise indication. What I see is that the environmental requirements which we see are requiring tremendous changes in the way the big internet companies operate. The competitive situation in the industry is nearing boiling point. Friend and foe are looking for solutions even outside the old boxes,
Radical solutions are necessary. Lightwave’s timing has not changed. When Lebby was asked if the PR 4 december was a mistake? He said:
No, no mistake. In hindsight it would have been better to have communicated that Tier 1’s take more time to decide. It’s a bottom-up and a top down process. It’s a strategic decision and it needs executional effort.
Personally, my interpretation? The announced deals in December are still in the works to be concluded.