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You see, the VERY expensive CEO is paying himself mainly for being a website developer
I have a feeling the wholesale website traffic growth trend we've noticed is going to produce Q1 numbers which surprise many (in a good way).
I agree with you on a lot, but I disagree that people who wear masks are 'sheeple'. That's misunderstanding their thought process.
People wear them because they care about their neighbors and family and friends. Some make it sound like they wear them because they don't think for themselves, and they trust anything they're told. In fact it's the exact opposite. They read and study and decide that it's best to wear it to protect the people around them. Just because some folks reach a different conclusion doesn't mean they didn't put thought into theirs.
I wonder if mask sales will get a slight temporary boost from people returning to offices, with offices supplying a fresh, steady supply for a while until new covid cases get low (they're not low yet, but going down).
For whatever reason, medicalMaskSuperstore has seen a boost in traffic in Q2 compared to Q1's lows. Maybe small business buying?
Indeed, the traffic numbers bear that out. The wholesale sites show steady, solid growth in both keyword rank and organic traffic, while the other new sites have had spurts and fizzles, inconsistently jumping up and down.
For a while it looked like worldofpets.com was going to be the best of the newest sites, but now womensfashionwholesale.com is starting to dominate the other new sites, as it just consistently grows with no dips.
In the more established leggings sites, leggingswholesale.com has only been around for 3 years and is already almost as big as onlyleggings.com, and soon to eclipse it if trends continue.
Q1 Web traffic is indeed down from last year's Q1 for the big leggings sites. Of course, there was 0 mask revenue last year's Q1, so that'll make up for some of the leggings drop. Still, if BRAV breaks even with last Q1 it'll be under 500k. I think it'll be more like 600k to 700k.
It can be hard to tell how traffic will correspond to sales, especially with all the sales numbers lumped together in quarterly reports. Also different traffic sites evaluate traffic in different ways, giving disagreement on which way traffic is moving. I'll often see Alexa rankings moving down while semrush shows organic traffic rising. Yes, one is a ranking and the other an absolute number, but I don't think that's the entire difference.
One place there's a clear disconnect in traffic-to-sales ratio is in medicalMaskSuperstore.com, whose Q4 traffic was higher than Q2 and Q3, but sales were lower. That's clearly because people were desperate for masks early on, and less discriminating about where they got them... any source which had supply would sell out the supply, so people bought as soon as they found something, meaning a much higher % of traffic converted to sales.
Yes, Danny isn't perfect, but he clearly cares about making the company successful. It's a passion of his, not a get rich quick scheme.
He has made a lot of mistakes along the way, so a lot of the criticisms of him are justified. Even today his PRs could use a lot of improvement. He needs to know what parts of the business to turn over to others, and where he creates the most value.
But for all the faults, I think it's clear that his motivation is to make the business itself strong and successful. Also, I believe he's learned from some (not all) of his mistakes, so he's in better position to succeed now than ever before.
While that might be true, you can't say for sure that they got current due to threats. The reason they went dark was to go into survival mode. They were losing money and had to cut all non-critical expenses, including filing reports. Then they got a little bit profitable, then mask revenue made them very profitable, and they could afford to file again.
So there are two possible explanations for the timing of it. It's probably a little bit of both.
These numbers show it's profitable at just 700K per quarter.
Q1 is usually the lowest revenue quarter in clothing retail, so anything above 600K for the quarter means a good chance of a profitable year.
I disagree with the statement that "a large US demographic despises the USA". I think there are a lot of people who despise what those in the federal government are doing, in one party or the other, but that is not the same as despising the USA.
As for the break even model, I think that's true at 900k or 1 million per quarter, but above that it starts becoming profitable. 2021 is a break even kind of year. 2022 should be profitable, but only if they execute well.
I've been running numbers on quarterly trends in retail and BRAV and similar companies. Typically Q1 is weakest and Q4 is strongest, although for overall retail this Q1 isn't quite as weak as usual due to stimulus.
Based on all that, and website traffic trends, I now think Q1 revenues will be down around 700k (which might still be optimistic), then will increase about 100k per quarter after that.
Again this is just my opinion, and pretty much guesses.
It's the Q1 to Q2 increase that I'll be paying most attention to, as that should be the first reflection of the effectiveness of new sites and marketing plans, without numbers being obscured by fluctuating mask demand.
I agree that Q1 will be better than Q4, but only in the net income department, because cost of goods sold will be lower due to working through the higher cost mask inventory and getting to masks they sourced later at lower cost.
I think the overall revenues will be about the same as Q4, maybe slightly higher. In the 850K - 900K range, give or take 100K.
The MedicalMaskSuperstore.com traffic has jumped up a bit in recent days. I wonder if that's due to the marketing initiatives you mentioned.
Even if I don't make much profit on this stock for a while, at least it'll help me become aware of some interesting popular trends. While checking top search keywords driving traffic to womensfahionwholesale.com, I learned about "scrunch butt leggings". Interesting trend.
That site is actually 41st in that search's listings, and 3 other BRAV sites appear higher, at 16th, 21st and 23rd.
People are weird... but as long as BRAV converts weirdness to sales, it's OK.
I don't believe he meant zero revenue in 2021.
Again, DA isn't too good with communicating what he intends to communicate. I've learned to apply a "Danny filter" to every PR.
In this case, I interpret "should not expect revenue from its new websites" to mean "should not expect SIGNIFICANT revenue from its new websites".
Obviously, the new websites are producing SOME revenue. People here have ordered from them. They're taking orders. It's just not going to be enough to move the needle significantly in quarterly reports until late this year or next year.
My guess is that Q1 will come in between 900k and 950k revenue, with better profit than Q4.
Just a guess.
leggingswholesale.com started getting a lot more paid traffic in mid-March, especially starting March 23.
Interestingly, and not surprisingly, the top paid keyword is lularoe. "Workout leggings" and "Wholesale leggings" are other top paid keywords.
Trying to analyze UsaFashion.com's recent traffic rise further, I see that its most productive search keyword combo is "creamy ebony", by far. I wonder if that's an intentional thing or by chance.
There are many ways of looking at traffic. I'm wondering why the Alexa rankings chart looks so different from (and worse than) the traffic charts I see on semrush. Perhaps overall web traffic keeps increasing, so that you have to increase traffic just to keep a ranking? Or could it be different kinds of traffic.
Whatever the case, WorldOfPets.com has been the best of the new sites in terms of steady increase in traffic, if you look at semrush.
WomensFashionWholesale.com has also been good at steadily increasing, though at lower levels.
What's weird is UsaFashion.com, which has a very jumpy up and down chart on semrush. The good part is, it just had a huge surge up on April 5, doubling its previous high in a one day surge, and has held that new level for a 2nd day. Can anyone see signs of what's going on with it anywhere else?
My expectation for Q1 is around $950K revenue.
As long as it's up from Q4, and new sites continue to rise in traffic rankings, I'm happy.
WorldOfPets has had the most consistent rise. The other new sites have been up and down... difficult to read the trends.
...and now that I'm caught up I see that Shift-4 said the same thing I just did, with a lot more detail to back it up.
I think he's first experimenting with stuff that's higher margin and lower space and weight to see what works. Food is heavy, takes up space, has a shorter shelf-life, and probably lower margin.
Keep in mind that there are many factors at play in any study like this.
A 1.2% reduction in what? New case rate? Existing cases?
What's the control? If no masks had been used, would cases have gone up 50% instead? Or 400% perhaps? You need a comparison.
You also have to look at cause and effect. Places with higher population densities naturally had faster spread, which lead to more mask wearing. Places with very low population densities could get away with lower mask wearing, so they did, and you can point to that and say "see, less mask wearing and less cases", but there are outside factors affecting both and correlating them.
To truly see the effects, you'd need places with similar densities, similar habits, and similar case loads, but one with more masks than the other. Those comparisons are hard to find.
The fact that cash will be close to $200K at end of March means that something went better in Q1 than in Q4. Maybe it was just profit margins being better, and not more revenues, but something went better.
Which is exactly why the 4th wave of Covid surge has begun.
We only have 1 in 6 Americans fully vaccinated, but some are acting like it's 5 in 6 vaccinated.
Not completely true.
Yes, wholesale stores are doing the best.
WorldOfPets.com is rising nicely, too.
USA Fashion is moving sideways, but not dropping.
The leggings sites have gone through cycles over the years and within years. This is usually a down part of the year for them. At the moment they're trending down in traffic, but not sharply.
Indeed. That's a sign that profitability in Q1 was much better than Q4, and revenues probably up, too.
Keep in mind that Q1 revs last year were $426K, so if they were a bit over $1m in Q1 that just finished, that would put it at $4.6 m for the trailing 12 months, a nice bump up.
Yes, I'm expecting good revenue numbers, too, but not quite crazy good yet.
Traffic on 2 of the 3 new sites has been strong and steadily growing. WorldOfPets and WomensFashionWholesale just keep rising, while USA Fashion is more choppy, up and down, but showing promise. However, those sites only really started contributing in Q1, which we won't hear about or another 6 weeks or so. For Q4, we're counting on the December leggings boost, and the temporary surge in mask sales countering their earlier declines. So, Q4 solid-but-below-Q3, and Q1 stronger, is what I'm expecting.
I think Danny would not do an RS now unless he felt confident about the new sites based on early numbers. Why? He knows that the RS will still leave the price too low for an eventual future uplist, which is a long-term goal of his, so he must be confident that growing revenues will soon multiply the stock price many multiples of current levels, since that's what's needed to get it into uplist range.
The expectation is $4.35 million revenue in 2020 (guidance of $4.2m - $4.5m). That would be $1.1 million for Q4, about 20% down from the $1.4m in each of the previous 2 quarters, but up from the previous year.
$5 million for 2020 would mean a unexpectedly huge Q4 result of $1.75 m, which would be a record for BRAV. It would be a big uptick which mask sales wouldn't account for, which would mean solid growth in the more long-term product lines. It would be a huge positive indicator for the future.
We can dream, but I don't expect to see $5 million in the annual report. I'm expecting it to be towards the top end of guidance.
DA proudly reported $200K in cash for end of Q1 2021,
$20K improvement in 6 months - are you impressed?
Showing huge year over year revenue and profit growth plus over $200k cash in the bank and no debt
I think part of the reason for the RS is to get off the pink sheets in the short term. The uplist comment was about the long-term. He wasn't clear about time-frame. He should have been.
Getting off pink sheets, I believe, would reduce commissions that people have to pay to buy and sell the stock with some brokers. So there's another reason to RS now. If he has to eventually do it, why not do it now? Get it out of the way so attention on the stock can start building as it passes more stock screener filters.
His statement today was to say he doesn't have short-term plans to specifically go to Nasdaq The previous statement was not specific to Nasdaq. To me that clearly means today's comment was in response to repeated questions people have sent him about whether he would do exactly that in the near term.
He is not a great communicator. I'm quite used to filling in the gaps in his writings. Too much emotion and whining in his PRs, but I don't think he's trying to deceive. He just needs people to vet what he writes before it's released.
The difference is time frame.
DA should have said "in the near term" or "within the next couple of years" when talking about not uplisting to NASDAQ.
He is not a great communicator. He sometimes vents on emotion, and doesn't consider his words carefully before publishing. He needs to have some advisors check what he writes before he releases it.
So, you have to do some mind reading which you shouldn't have to do, but he is being consistent if you fill in the gaps.
I've been asking myself the same question for a few months, what's next after mask sales fade?
They were already profitable with growing revenues for 2 years before the mask sales started just under 12 months ago, so I figure at worst things would revert to that trend.
However, people are more used to buying things online in general now, so that could help other sales long-term.
Also, the boost in cash from mask sales has enabled some long-term upgrades in accounting and staffing, and allowed adding of inventory for the new pet store, as well as promotion of the growing wholesale businesses.
Overall, as mask sales fade (more slowly than we thought they would), a more well-positioned Bravada will be left behind.
Thanks. So it seems like they get a lot of their traffic from people looking for black masks for some reason.
I searched around for the meaning of "Share of Voice". Seems like it's an old marketing stat from before online anything existed, meaning how much people are talking about you compared to your competitors. It can be used in different contexts, so in social media context, it's how much you're being mentioned in social media compared to your competition.
Calculating it also depends on who's considered your competition.
Not sure what it means in terms of search engine results. Would it be what % of click-throughs you get after that search is made?
Could anyone describe those search traffic % stats in layman's terms?
What does "Share of Voice" mean?
Just checked traffic on the new sites. They're all doing well, pushing to new highs in the past week. WorldOfPets.com is steadily up, USAFashion.com is more choppy but rising faster, and WomensFashionWholesale has passed them both.
MedicalMaskSuperstore.com had been declining steadily, but in the last few days its traffic has surged upward. People buying masks again due to the variants, perhaps? Or wanting to get outside more with warmer weather and running out of masks?
There are many possible reasons, and it could be that multiple reasons are in effect here.
To me it doesn't sound the usual alarm bells, because it's being done from a position of operational strength instead of weakness, and the beneficiary/CEO has put years of work into building the business, with postponed rewards, as opposed to someone looking for quick profit with little work.
Making these distinguishing observations is important in determining when to bail and when to buy.
Nice!
The link didn't come through in the press release, but I believe it's this: https://www.bravada.com/contact-us/
There's a "Subscribe to our newsletter" there.
Looks more like the latter. More opportunity to provide a better service there, with better terms, and take a lot of that market share.
It's tough to beat out existing players in the first space, but he can keep some niches going there, while becoming a top option in the wholesale space.