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Since you claim to have the answer to this question, do you have the answer to the question of why the FDA didn't schedule an adcom earlier so as to hold the accelerated timeline of an approval decision on of before 9/28?
If corruption wasn't an issue, 100%
The science is rock solid. Multiple societies have validated with SOC. Amarin has proven they can deliver a quality product.
But because of money and human nature, sadly, the possibility of corruption cannot be ruled out. But corruption is the only possible reason I can see of a negative adcom. Of course some excuse would be given, but corrupt money is the only conceivable reason for neg adcom.
I'd give it a 93/7 positive.
If you were in his shoes, with people making decisions based on your recommendation, would you publically give it a higher chance?
Like a politician, he has to have some wiggle room just in case.
Stock screen for mid to large cap companies, with very high revenue growth, I found 29. ($4 billion an up market cap, 35% and up year over year revenue growth).
Of these, the price to sales ratio ranges from about 2.75 up to over 20. 10 of the 29 have p/s over 10. The median is probably 7.
2013 about 40 million US patients were on statins. I've read about double that medically qualify.
My conservative math here...
Take the 40 million US, estimate another 40 million from overseas, and say at peak 20% of that 80 million could take V. Looking at $1500 annual revenue for 16 million patients, that's $24 billion peak sales.
Pick your price to sales multiple. Conservative 3?
$+-75 billion.
How would Alzheimer's trial be designed?
Would V be added to an existing therapy, or compared to placebo?
Patients with early stage A, or a group of people with no symptoms observing who get A later?
You may be right on the chart.
And for traders who don't know much about the stock, maybe a good time to sell.
For investors who know the company, this info is good to manage short-term expectations.
But for investors who know the company, selling means possibly missing out on potentially stock-moving events that are not publically known.
The biggest possibility (unlikely until adcom or label expansion, but not impossible) real news on the buyout front. It's just too risky to be out when that is even a remote possibility.
Other news events that could take place...Goldman initiating coverage...news on the evaporate study.
Thanks for sharing the info, but hanging onto shares with my cold dead fingers.
EVAPORATE results poll
1/ Assuming positive results, what effect on the share price?
2/ Educated guess on date data results will be released.
I think you are spot on.
Seems it's all about add-on to statins.
Are there any studies showing V effective independent of statins?
Is company seeking any label independent of statins?
Regardless of above, is there ample reason to believe V alone is a great option? Links?
I'm taking V alone as preventative, my lipids aren't bad enough to require statins and I prefer to avoid them and their side effects if possible.
I'm guessing this rumor...
I think both of these are BS because they link to some BS warran buffet stock website. Probably just some attempt to drive traffic to that site.
https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FFlyOnTheWallHQ%2Fstatus%2F1172995339592204288&widget=Tweet
https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FStockWatchHQ%2Fstatus%2F1173303820698275840&widget=Tweet
I've got the VASCEPA Georgia license plate, and Amarin hat. I need to go to Vegas.
Thanks for the insight.
I see a cardiologist because of an incident of rapid heart rate.
After 2 stress tests and wearing a monitor, we concluded that I'm sensitive to caffeine and some medicines (such as pseudoephedrine).
His younger colleague seemed more concerned with my good but not great blood lipid numbers.
The standard recommendations...lose a little weight, eat close to Meditteranean diet, exercise, lower stress, get good sleep, reduce caffeine (particular to my reaction).
On one visit, I brought up Vascepa. About 1 year ago. Doc seemed disinterested and mentioned fish oil.
But my primary care doc didn't hesitate when I asked her to write a script for V. She is a good doc and spends a lot of time with patients; asking detailed questions and interacting on new meds. I also was early in using EXAS cologuard versus a rear-end-ream (very unpleasant thought)
I'm wondering what the heart doc will think and say next time I go back (probably over a year from now) to know I've been on V for a while when he poo-pooed it. By that time, blood numbers should reflect a noticable benefit.
When will Goldman initiate coverage? There's a potential catalyst no one has talked about lately.
There certainly is enough information to support that.
But big traders who operate on a yearly bonus would understandably be reluctant to hold a large position through adcom.
For an individual long who knows the company or a well-established trader, they may take the risk. But a young pro trader, maybe not.
My attitude is I don't want to risk being out of the stock.
Back to goldman...opinions on when they might initiate?
! Breaking news European guidelines recommend EPA for prevention !
https://www.escardio.org/The-ESC/Press-Office/Press-releases/european-guidelines-on-lipid-control-advocate-lower-is-better-for-cholesterol-levels
"Fish oil supplements (particularly icosapent ethyl) are recommended, in combination with a statin, for patients with hypertriglyceridaemia despite statin treatment. In these patients, supplements reduce the risk of atherosclerotic CVD events, including heart attack and stroke, by about one quarter."
Adam Feuerstein (@adamfeuerstein)
8/19/19, 7:02 PM
There will be more to say on $SRPT and Vyondys 53 tomorrow and days ahead, but for now, few rational people believe the stated safety issues are real reason for FDA rejection. Have a good night. twitter.com/adamfeuerstein…
Apparently, it's conventional thinking in the biotech community that the FDA misleads (lies) and is up to shenanigans. (technical term)
Are you taking V alone, or with statin?
What would be my results of V alone, with Statin? Side effects of statins concern me...
Thanks for your info.
I don't think my insurance will cover it now, so out of pocket with GOODRX or the company coupon looks like about $240 per month. Actually cheap if it can prevent a heart event.
When I came up with that name I was a pilot of a heavy (767-400, then A330).
That was the right seat. I'm now in the left seat of a very light jet; B-717.
My wife also thinks I'm a pilot who is a little heavy, and until I lose about 20, I'd have to agree with her. She loves me anyway.
Ball caps, license plates.
Apparently getting a ball cap is going to be for the rare few.
Being a huge fan or even a large share holder aren't enough.
I was told displaying strong support for the brand publicly is the standard, "such as a license plate".
Bad news for Georgia drivers...VASCEPA is taken, by ME!
I expect the plate within a month, and when pic is sent to IR, a hat should be on its way!
My second choice for the plate was "BY AMRN" Had to be 7 or less characters including spaces. I liked that one, maybe for a second car when AMRN goes 5X? In the meantime, feel free to use it ;)
On my next doctor visit, what points should I make to convince my doc to prescribe V? Let's assume she is vaguely but not intimately familiar with V and the REDUCE-IT study.
I'm 53, 6'1", 205 lbs. no blood sugar issues.
Lipids Trig 142, total 196, HDL 43, ldl 128, ratio 4.6, non hdl 153.
My interpretation of above is fair, no big red flag, but room for improvement.
What key stats would convince doc that V would be helpful for me?
And, yes I do plan to exercise more, lose some weight, eat less overall, but more veggies and less simple carbs and fries, etc.
TIA.
What buyout price do u predict?
Wyckoff wrote about tactics of big operators accumulating a position ahead of a large move.
What we are seeing here is nothing new. Wyckoff wrote his famous book in the 1930's.
“He prefers to do this while the market is weak, dull, inactive and depressed. To the extent that they are able, he, and the other interests with whom he works, bring about the very conditions which are most favorable for accumulation of stocks at low prices…
“When he wishes to accumulate a line, he raids the market for that stock, makes it look very weak, and gives it the appearance of heavy liquidation by sending in selling orders through a great number of brokers.”
Source: Wyckoff (1937)
https://business.financialpost.com/investing/the-secret-trading-strategy-from-the-1930s-that-hedge-funders-dont-want-you-to-know-about
Just a thought...might want to consider REITs or high dividend stocks for a portion of your money. Some tickers and dividend yield; OHI 7.1%, T 5.9%, ARI 9.9%, SIX 6.2%. No trouble or expense compared to physical real estate, lower volatility than non-dividend stocks.
Doesn't it make sense for the company to be fully prepared for the GIA scenario, even if they are open to (or even prefer) a buyout?
Being fully prepared for GIA gives them more leverage to get the best price and leaves them in a good position to maximize value if other circumstances make a buyout in the short-term impossible.
My point is that the company being fully prepared for GIA is no indication that a buyout is any less likely.
I agree with your statement, generally. Bu with this stock, I personally don't want to be out of my core position. Why? Because the risk of missing out on a great gain is a genuine risk.
If big pharma decides to buy them, do you know when that will happen?
Do you know with certainty what the earliest possible date the FDA grants a potential expanded label?
Jesse Livermore
Where is he? Did he announce a strike?
Well, I thought so. The stock price seems to be reacting like AMRN has been lately...yawn...
New patent.
Smart folks, what is the significance of this?
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/10314803.html
Yes, would love someone to interpret this for the non-medical professional layman. What is NNT?
Defeating dementia book. This recent book does a nice job explaining the implications of recent research for how most people can slow or prevent dementia. The key takeaways are that while some forms are due to genetics, most forms of dementia are related to inflammation and circulation.
For personal health, the keys are to maintain a healthy weight, eat a healthy diet (such as the Mediterranean diet) and exercise regularly. Also, the usual stress-reducing habits such as getting good sleep, maintaining healthy social relationships, etc.
Sounds a whole lot like the steps to take for good heart health, right?
No surprise Vasepa would be effective for good brain health as well as heart health given this research.
https://www.amazon.com/Defeating-Dementia-Prevent-Alzheimers-Other/dp/0800728041/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=defeating+dementia&qid=1553786074&s=gateway&sr=8-2
Hey...I don't have subscription so I can't reply in private. Just want to say I saw your private email...You're welcome although I got lucky on timing...no insider knowledge...lol
I was first aware of EXAS when it was around $4, now worth about $89. Many swings on the roller coaster, and I did trade around with it. One to check out for potential today is ACRX. Now trading about $2.55. In the pain field. Alternative to addictive opioids. Chart looks like it's in a wedge and should break out one way or the other soon. Some price targets around $9. GL to all, long and strong AMRN. Dyodd.
What do you mean "FFS" chart? I follow technical analysis, but I missed the reference there.
ok, there is current methotrexate news related to Novartis...
http://www.pharmaceuticalmarkets.com/News_Item.aspx?nid=1857
This was apparently an issue about 2 years ago also.
Worth asking I guess what they are doing to ensure ATRS devises don't have a similar problem.
why'd they sell?
$40K isn't chump change...who knows why they needed or wanted the cash.
That'll pay for most of a pretty decent car.
That'll cover college expenses for a year or two, depending on the school.
Bottom line is compared to their total holdings, its a small percentage. It doesn't signal to me they don't believe in the future of the company.
It does signal to me they don't bet on the stock price moving up a big percentage in the immediate future.
In short, it doesn't tell me anything I didn't already believe.
The company has fine prospects, but I don't expect to cash in for at least a few months to a few years.
Thanks for posting this...whether you turn out to right or wrong, I commend you for sharing your pick based on your expertise.
I will certainly dd it.
I continue to be long ATRS. I also maintain a long term hold in EXAS and AMRN. I believe both have an excellent chance for long-term success, not overnight sensation.
India injectable business sold...interesting comparison to potential Antares valuation...
http://www.livemint.com/Companies/Lcg4GfowQ5izTiaX3cBx7M/Strides-sells-its-injectables-unit-Agila-to-Mylan-for-16-b.html
Updated: Fri, Mar 01 2013. 12 11 AM IST
Mumbai: Drug maker Strides Arcolab Ltd has agreed to sell its injectables unit Agila Specialties to Mylan Inc., one of the world’s top generic drug makers, for a total of $1.6 billion (about Rs.8,500 crore).
Under the agreement, Strides will receive another $250 million in the future, based on certain conditions, the company informed stock exchanges on Thursday.
Agila, which makes and sells anti-infective injectables with a market presence in the US and parts of Europe, is currently the core business unit of Strides. It had sales and profit of $255 million and $86 million, respectively, in the year ended 31 December.
The Mylan deal values Agila at 6.2 times sales and 18.7 times profit, based on the initial $1.6 billion cash consideration, according to analyst Hitesh Mahida of Fortune Equity Brokers (India) Ltd.
Strides had in January 2012 sold a 94% stake in its Australian subsidiary Ascent Pharma to another US generic drug maker Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc. for A$375 million.
I wouldn't bet the farm without a more solid source. Squido?
http://www.squidoo.com/vringo
Well give him my number...and tell him call me...maybe?
ATRS 4.58 notice in article ATRS has catalyst upcoming, filing NDA based on this data.
Company has good cash position, no debt, is essentially break-even with growing revenue (30-50%)
This company deserves your attention, imo. I'm looking for stock to challenge summer highs as investors focus on upcoming catalyst.