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Purple, I think you got that right - assuming that the relative total market unit sales remains unchanged and that we have the others all signed. This would tend to increase our revenues as you suggest.
Cellphones, et al, are quickly becoming a commodity, just as PCs have become. IMO, NOK will continue to fight tooth and nail on this until,
1. IDCC waivers - unlikely, I hope.
2. They exhaust all court remedies. This is the bugaboo for me. IMO they will argue that the 3g side of things [in the event of ERICY 3g deal] will be invalid as the underlying patents are [says NOK] invalid and are disputed in court as we speak. Tie it up for a few years if they can. Who knows, they may get lucky and get another 'discount' from expectations.
They now have a little more time to collude with E/SNE on refusing to do a 3g deal as E/SNE probably will not do anything until all the court issues are resolved. And while this goes on, ALL these companies will promote the reduction in royalties issues NOK [and I suppose others] is promoting.
This is part of their overall strategy. They are or will be reputedly, fighting QCOM on the 5 % for everything in order to reduce overall royalties, and this all fits in with this strategy. Essentially, they will try to link everything to everything else and delay, delay, delay. Remember, there are only 18 months left on the E/SNE [and others I assume] deal for the 2/2.5g IPR.
I would rather they aggressively market 3g products, and sign on with a graduated rate structure [by sales volume/unit volume] that is just as favorable - or more so - if they manage to get the [free] TDD IPR as the mainstream mode, and thereby get a relative markewting advantage that way. That seems the no brainer to me. Unfortunately, their scorched earth mentality seems to be working for now. 2 more years, I'm afraid
Lastchoice, "and now we know the 3g contract is enforceable"
Maybe. We still don't know for sure if the 2g part is.
I seem to recall when we got in bed with NOK back in 99, EVERYBODY say that as the salvation it was - at least for THEN. NOBODY figured in any of this treachery. And the market does not like the uncertainty this creates.
I want this thing to explode to 80. This week would work, but doesn't look like that will happen anytime soon.
We need a 3g deal in the worst way to secure post 2006 revenues.
That was already implied by the previous announcements. There was nothing really new presented today. They just codified the reason for the lower average amounts for the 3 year period beginning 2004 from the 2 year period beginning 2002.
rmarchma, what does this 'cost of capital' part of the discussion mean?
Why were you surprised to hear NOK was "contentious?" My God man, they have been to court and tried to throw everything but the kitchen sink into the fray. Called our top management money grubbing profiteers and intimated illegalities, quoted HC, thru a poster discussion at the AGM as 'evidence' in the ongoing mix, and filed pre-emptive patent litigation. They probably just couldn't find a sink.
Metaphor. But my money is on NOK filing some kind of appeal. And why not? They keep getting huge discounts for doing so.
And I am mindful of the fact that there are less than 18 full months remaining. What if everyone still holds out on 3g? Or waits to see what the NOK court challenges bring?
Yes, this will be good - IF ERICY and/or E/SNE actually sign. So far there are no indications of such. If they DO sign, then it truly will go to the moon, Alice.
Yea, NOK is probably pizzed. A quarter Billion is coffee money for them - especially since already accounted for. The 3g thing I thought was already known, so stupid me. I will wait to see what NOK does in court to see if they appeal. If so, will SAM simply wait and ride that process out?
once they said no questions, I thought they might announce a 3g deal. Sadly, this 15 minute call added no significant value except to say that NOK remains contensious. Well, we already knew that.
Short break from the grill and 70 or so posts - on 4th July. We must have no lives.
Or, they could both just meet after school behind the playground and have it out.
linedrivehitter, Now THAT was the post of the week!
If CB continues, do you think JimLur will take his bat and ball and go and start another board ?
Just food for thought - It has happened before.
clawmann, sorry about the name thing.
Anyway, Donnerk posted it in light of the settlement snowball effect. Virgin, then all the others come to the table. GREAT if it happens. I do understand the 'no fault' issues and do not take exception. I do understand the litigation cost issues as well. I simply cautioned that such is always not the case and referenced the IDCC - NOK problem set. IDCC did settle with ERICY, but NOK continues to fight tooth and nail [EXCEPT there is on 1 July 05 an arbitors rulinjg favoring IDCC :) ] IF we get them all to sign on the bottom line and send in a check, ABSOLUTELY NO PROBLEM - and I would agree with virtually all you said. I suppose I'm fromk Missouri and can only say, "SHOW ME."
Thanx for clarifying your comments.
dmiller, couldn't have said it any better. NOK must have realized they lost the arb, yet they continue to use every trick in the [legal] bag and every slur they can conjure. I still have a nervous feeling that NOK will somehow try to challenge this award and I would defer to the legal boys to consider ANY and ALL grounds NOK could challenge the decision. Maybe the arbitors were smart enough to establish a rate vs a monetary amount, I don't know. But I do know that they now have two more legal issues to challenge - the arb and the filing in NY. Just more fuel for them. If they weren't interested in the legal route, we would already have had a 3g deal going forward.
Yes, I am very positive, but I wouldn't go counting chickens just yet. The check is not yet in the bank.
Mkt not open Monday - unless foreign mkt.
How do we trade there?
Point is that we should not count the chickens till they hatch. We still do not know how much is tied in here.
Point also is that the repost you made from crawfish or whoever is not necessarily accurate and is somewhat or potentially misleading. IDCC DID settle with ERICY and yet they still face significant uphill legal battles, contrary to the mentality that a settlement assures even more settlements due to war chests, etc. Quite frankly, I would like to see a clear and decisive win IN COURT [vs. Scanbuy?] so that there would be an actual decision that would have to be overturned. That would be a HUGE raising of the bar for the IP. Settlements only go so far with other infringers and can easily be 'scoffed' at by the infringers.
Cautionary optimism. That's all.
And yes, analogies only work so well.
Donnerk0 [and the clawman], I would only point you to IDCC for a compararive. The amount of revenues and the size of the infringer target are crucial. IDCC is still fighting NOK after a 10 year fight with ERICY that was finally settled - over 2 years ago. The IP world is frought with unexpected turns and twists.
Yea, were in the first inning, one run in with ducks on the pond. Still have to get them accross the plate.
I'm confident that there are or will be revenues attached to this and we will find out in the next release of financials, or a future press release/conference. The amount or the terms of the deal are crucial going forward as it sets a bar for others to meet or beat. Now if we can only get scanbuy to come aboard!!
OK, but it does happen.
Remember that the pennies sometimes attract the 'get rich quick' types [incl me sometimes ;)] that can become nervous nellies on pullbacks.
I know NEOM is HQ'ed in FL Ft Meyers. I expect to visit my folks [near North Port/Port Charlotte area] and drop in to the next ASM [Nov I believe?]
Nice to see green for a change.
I'll bet that this 'Canadian' issue caused a bit of the selloff from newbie investors suddenly thinking they were invested in a 'foreign' company and becoming a little scared and confused.
Hell, I was a little scared in the morning and confused in the afternoon. lol. Certainly not for the faint of heart.
L2V, sorry you took exception to my use of the word, "peanuts". I used it only in context of your post that IDFCC had ERICY under threat of the "hammer". I just cannot agree that the settlement discussion involved – in a meaningful, codified manner – 3g terms. I do not think we had a ‘smoking gun’ left in the holster.
I could believe it IF, and ONLY if there was also a 3g deal tied to it. Consequently, “peanuts”.
Your point #1 – substantiates my view. All that was left was the peanuts.
Point #2 – for whatever reason [notably survival?], IDCC had to settle with NOK in 99 for peanuts and some revenues on the engineering side, just to remain viable. In so doing, ERICY also got away for peanuts. Howard called it a ‘watershed event’ as the thinking at the time was that the trigger on NOK post 2002 was pulled. And as we now see, this was less than a slam dunk than originally thought. Oh, well.
Point 3: just enough to break even. I DO call that “peanuts”. Sorry, but none of this constitutes “smoking guns” or “hammers” in my book.
Point 4; I will certainly agree with that. If this does go our way, it will not matter what any of us thinks. Mr. Market will hopefully have touched the match to the fuse.
Point 5: Too many contingent conditions keep getting thrown in the way of this stock. NOK won’t pay unless some of the other biggies pay. Negotiated a deal calling for triggers, separate discussions and ultimately arbitration. None of this would be if there were smoking guns and hammers or watershed events. SAM also is now conditional on NOK it seems. Has anyone really considered the downside of,…Is there really a trigger pulled here? I hope it is not true, but the possibility exists that a “trigger” has not been pulled. I seem to recall, but cannot put my hands on it, that the 99 deal required TWO [2] separate triggers. Many here, including me, seem to implicitly agree that ERICY and E/SNE constitute the 2. Could the arb boys think otherwise? Hmm. Maybe I’m all wet, but this is an ever increasing nagging thought.
Point 6: So far, only revenues from E/SNE and a few others. Nagging thought: what if we lose this arb? Or don’t get as much as many think? I don’t know exactly how MFL conditions will work in our licenses, but on finding out that the big gorilla on the block is skating, will all the others be able to skate as well?
Also, if we cannot know the terms of the MFL, how is it that anyone can invoke it? I suppose you can calculate it with a little snooping and algebra, but … Hmmmm.
Point 7: Possible. IF we win. Please remember, I do not see a deal on the table, there is no indication that management sees a deal on the table and we are in court with NOK and LU. NOK will not let any of this go and LU seems not to be letting anything go. [Saw Mad Money tonite and they had a spot on QCOM and how NOK, et.al. were going to renegotiate the 5% [the promised land?] rate down to 3 or so. No telling what will happen, but this all adds up to not looking so good – A FAR CRY FROM hammers and smoking guns.
We will just have to agree to disagree.
All IMO.
koko, the turn-around is in the paint business, not for PC - yet. Bottom line is that we need to see revenues starting to attach to all the co-marketing and other deal agreements. The Virgin deal probably should have closed about 2 months ago. IMO, another delay with the Virgin settlement - no matter the reason - will provide PAIN.
But it is agony waiting for the register to ring up some actual REVENUES. No revenues, no pps rocket. I underastand how many feel given the Virgin settlement delay. OK, another 3-4 weeks. I'm gone if they cannot get a FRIENDLY settlement done by then.
L2V, if IDCC had a 'hammer' over ERICY, why did they settle for peanuts?
IMO, ERICY did NOT cry 'uncle'. They were given a virtually free pass. It was cheaper to pay the $34 Millions than to continue the legal issues [AND no 3g deal - best outcome they - ERICY - could probably get!!]. They finally realized IDCC was not going to simply go away, so they offered just enough to have IDCC say, screw it, we can now trigger NOK, et.al. No Hammer there, IMO.
Thx Success. This bodes well. However, actually getting the trebble damages is something else altogether. Since they are talking settlement, this really will not come into play. Most likely, IMO, is back royalties and a deal going forward. We will see next week! Next week will be KEY to NEOM. Any more delay will crush the stock short term and a deal will ionitiate the rising tide. I got another 5000 at .44ish yesterday :) These will be trading shares. GLTA
And thx to you Success. My question is...
Was a Cease and Desist actually granted?
Before we go counting on treble damages...
koko, thx for link
Success, I did not know that a Cease and Desist order actually granted. Do you have a link?
TIA
GrnAcrs, I'm not an atty either, but it does not seem logical that someone could breach a contract while they were complying with it.
This is probably not a breach of contract - contract calls for arb.
Just got back from D.C. and am trying to find out why the big drop. ?
L2V, just gotta disagree on the negotiations thing. I cannot even imaging any negotiations going on with the June 8 response NOK sent in. If they were negotiating, they would probably be trying to play a little nicer. If they are negotiating, it seems that they would be wanting to pay less, not more, and not create anything to piss the other side off. This court response would only serves to infuriate IDCC. Hardly a good negotiating tactic.
Wedge issue: HC was going to get re-elected probably no matter what. I probably am wrong, but I thought that since nobody was running against him, he was a shoo in [unless he got ZERO votes?]. Same basic thing on the non-binding prop 2. I do not know why the arb is delayed, but for [MORE] time to negotiate [especially after the letter] just doesn't hold much water with me.
But the letter substaitiates my belief that NOK is going to do anything and everything to not pay us.
Lesnshawn,
"poison pill" = No HOSTILE buyout. EOM
Right. I would still be embarassed, but apparently they are not. If it works, I'm all wet. But it DOES fit into their 'anything and everything' mentality.
lesnshawn, Since I think you mean me, my answer is ...
I am not married to this stock. If you are one that seems to be married to the stock, well, OK, that is your choice.
If there is a buyout, so be it. I am a realist and I believe that will be the quickest way to get the technology mainstream.
Please remember, the deal between NEOM and SBL is about 4 years old. No revenues yet, just an agreement for future framework. NEOM, while having recently become a little more cash capable, is underfunded to MASSIVELY exploit this on their own - they need a very BIG BROTHER [not the 1984 kind]. Realistically speaking, any such big brother would have to look at 'what's in it for them' issues and I believe - realistically - that such an analysis on their part will lead them to the 'buy them out' solution. I posted so previously, so this is not new. I see a buyout as a distinct possibility and one that provides the mechanism to unlock the value.
Some here may think that the TS teasers are more than they really were/are. Think about it for a sec - at .13 his teaser said a 10 bagger and implied ANOTHER 10 bagger from there [or maybe only a 5 bagger, I forget, but let's just use a second 10 Bagger. My math says that is about $13 total [.13 to 1.30 to 13.00, but I am not claiming to be a mathematician]. That is probably generous since the first teasers came out at .06-.07 ? Anyway, we got lots of folks here thinking CSCO, GOOG, etc., stock performance. VERY UNrealistic in my view. What would that be - a 100,000 bagger or so? Just not likely IMO. MUCH more likely is CSCO or GOOG or SOMEONE taking us out.
IMO the only way to stop that is to ...
BUY MORE STOCK.
Captainslog, Nic is right - NOK DOES have a plan and they are executing. The plan is do ANYTHING and EVERYTHING they possibly can to drag this out. I said so some time ago, as did others. Looks like we were litterally correct - this last from NOK laughably fills the 'anything and everything' bill. I could not believe they actually did this. I have read the last paragraph portion of the filing a couple of times and concluded that if I was Morris, Nichols, Arsht or Tunnell, this guy Blumenfeld would have been shown the door immediately. I would be embarrassed by that. Oh, well.
Mschere, not necessarily. I have had previous problems with DR being so cryptic in his posts. This one was the first one that seemed less cryptic. He probably has forgotten more about all this stuff than I will ever even hear of and when he posts, he makes certain assumptions on the readers level of knowledge and either assumes we all understand or deliberately obfuscates his answer so nobody can challenge him on things. I am one of the "dumbasses" in this stock that never really could understand him. This particular post just struck me as being VERY uncharacteristic of Data. That's all.
I could care less if it was 100 or 500 Millions since whenever. I care more about how much will come and how it will affect the price of my stock.
Or maybe even on June 32. Good one. LOL.
OMFG, Data, THANK YOU for one of your most clear, non-obfuscated, and understandable opinion post EVER. I read it about 5 times just to make sure I really understood it. I actually think I DO understand.