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made my first purchase today at .51 - hope i didn't jump on the wave right before it crashes --- still looking strong
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101202-717345.html
CONAKRY, Guinea (AFP)--Guinea's Supreme Court confirmed early Friday the election victory of opposition leader Alpha Conde who won 52.52% of votes compared to rival Cellou Dalein Diallo's 47.48%.
"The candidate of the RPG (Rally of the Guinean People), professor Alpha Conde, is elected president of the Republic," Magistrate Mamadou Sylla, who presides over the court's constitutional chamber, announced in front of scores of journalists.
Voter turnout was 67.81%.
it seems the best way to set your expectations on filings for JADA is to see what they did the previous year. Last year, they filed a few days late - on the 19th I think. So far this year, they have filed (timeline-wise) almost identically to 2009.
back in at .39 --- took all morning to get my order filled.
How high does LTUS go on today's news??? jumped in at 1.09
got in at 1.09 right after the announcement. any thoughts as to how high today's announcement takes us in the short run?
Will be interesting to see how we close today with the CC coming up on Monday. Hopefully we'll rally into the close.
I agree. No doubt the demand is there for any amount of shares they want to sell of the portion that will soon be freed up under the lock up agreement. A private deal makes sense for all involved.
Just a thought - whereas we've been watching this amazing ride the past month, many are just looking at HDY for the first time. Given the huge rise on huge volume, you have to wonder how many more fund managers are doing their due diligence for the first time as we speak, not to mention large retail investors. The pps will no longer be determined by the whims of the MMs or R&R - it will be determined by the value of the concession itself which is continuing to unfold as the 3D data comes in and as we move toward drilling.
Just a thought, but at this level, if you are an institution wanting to acquire a decent stake in HDY, it seems the way to do it is to push the pps above $3, keep it there for a week, then pursue a private purchase from the Watts given that they would be freed up to sell ~ 15% of their holdings at that point.
The details of the lock-up agreement:
The agreements cover a nine-month lockup period that precludes the trading of more than 17 million shares of common stock. The locked up shares are comprised of approximately 13.4 million free-trading shares along with warrants to purchase approximately 4 million shares. The lockup represents 13 percent of outstanding shares and 34 percent of outstanding warrants of Hyperdynamics stock. The agreements also state that 15 percent of the locked up shares would be released when the stock price reaches $3 a share for five consecutive trading days; 50 percent would be released when the price reaches $5 a share for five days; and 100 percent would be released when the stock price reaches $9 a share for the same period. The lockup agreements replace earlier agreements, which have expired.
Here is a link to the PR:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hyperdynamics-Signs-Lockup-prnews-1079804379.html?x=0&.v=1
It is in their best interest though to sell in a way that doesn't impact the upward momentum of the stock price. I could see them selling directly to a fund that wants to buy in or selling in small chunks over a longer period of time. I suspect they'll want to get some cash out as we move up, but they are not going to dump in a way that will hurt the stock price - it isn't in their best interest to do so.
Thoughts on yesterday's and today's nice move up??? Perhaps partly the effect of some forced short covering due to many SH's moving their stock to cash accounts. Regardless, it has made for a lovely day!
I suspect the next JV to sign on will take care of cash flow needs for quite some time. Thanks to RL, unlike years past, HDY is in a position of strength going forward. I think RL will continue to make choices to maximize shareholder value.
not making any moeny and will not for quite some time. oil exploration company - currently holds the rights to the largest oil concession off the coast of west africa (guinea). retains 77% of the concession with Dana Petroleum (currently being bought out by KNOOC) in for 23%. expected to sign another JV in the coming weeks/months which is expected (per the most recent CEO's CC) to bring in enough up front cash to cover HDY's portion of drilling a 2 to 3 well drill plan in October of next year. future value will be determined based on proven reserves after drilling long before any oil is out of the ground. prelimenary conservative estimates released by Dana Petroleum on only a part of the concession - over 2.3B barrels - the largest deepwater plays not included. currently conducting a massive 3D seismic survey. stellar current management team and board. if you have the time, give the CEO, Ray Leonard's most recent CC (dated 9/15) a listen - I think it will be well worth your time. Here's a link:
http://investors.hyperdynamics.com/events.cfm
well there is a reason it's up 100% in the last few months. you have to look at what is happening with the company as opposed to just looking at the chart to appreciate it though. we'll see if $2.25 is a bargain in 3 to 6 months - i think it will prove to have been quite the bargain. all the best to you and thanks for the reply.
OT OT OT
Glen, a few months back on a the CGS board I think you asked for suggestions for oil plays given the prevalence of peak oil theories. I emailed you HDY - just curious if you ever took a look at it. It is finally starting to take off with quite a story to unfold over the next 12 months. If you have given it a look, any thoughts you could add on the HDY board would be appreciated.
OT - not a China play, but hope some of you took a look at HDY after I mentioned it 3 weeks ago - it has been a nice ride and it is still just getting started. Big story there starting to unfold.
Thanks Value for the summary. Will definitely keep my eye on this one for a possible re-entry.
I haven't followed CCME for a few months - can anyone briefly summarize why the downward pressure on the pps? I don't see any filings or anything to cause this - quite the contrary with the recent PR regarding approved stock buyback plan. TIA.
2.3 B barrels * 77% = ~ 1.7B barrels
1.7B * $9 per barrel = $15.3B
assume 130M shares
$15.3B/130M shares = ~$118 per share
Will be interesting to see how the market values this preliminary reserves estimate by Newell.
HDY - currently my biggest holding - should really take off today with the news. take a looksie!
You're right on A/R and and it looks like the change in payables also accounts for some of the cash flow as well. Changing the distribution rights number seems strange to me as a currency adjustment, but I'll look into it. Sorry for the scare on the cash balance - you have to back into the quarterly cash flow numbers using the 6/30 and 3/31 numbers and I didn't do a good job of that.
I sold all my JADA this morning. Took a small loss. It may very well go higher and I suspect it probably will but I had some concerns after analyzing the 10Q a little further last night. If you look at Note 4, for some reason the gross amount being amortized of the Exclusive Jade Distribution Rights increased by ~$3.3M in the 2nd quarter. This number should not change. This represents the amount they are amortizing related to the purchase of the distribution rights. Why would it increase by $3.3M in the second quarter - makes absolutely no sense. In addition if you look at the cash flow statement, something is off there as well. Compare 3/31 cash balance to the 6/30 cash balance - there is very little change even though there should have been an increase of at least $3 million dollars (when you consider 2nd quarter earnings and add back the non-cash amortization that took place during the quarter). It appears that over $3M that should have increased the cash balance is not there, but for some reason the distribution rights amount has increased by that amount. It looks very strange to me and until there is a little more clarity on this point, I'll take my loss and move on.
Has anyone attempted to contact Hsin regarding the 10Q and if so, have you heard anything back?
The numbers shown are as of 6-30. If the acquisition deposit has been returned since that time, it will be mentioned in the 10Q filing under subsequent events.
I'm kind of amazed how the price is holding up here. The numbers are definitely a disappointment. I'm wondering if they are not trying to smooth out earnings given the 8 cents that they earned in 3rd quarter last year. Perhaps they've pushed some of 2nd qtr revenues into next quarter in order to smooth out the comparables. Not right, but it does happen.
An acquisition would certainly require an 8-K filing whereas the deposit return would not - so I think you're right on that.
With today's news, will NEP begin trading again immediately or will they have to wait until after they have filed? Not currently in NEP but am keeping an eye on it.
Millstone,
I sent Hsin the following email this afternoon. I'll post any response I get when she responds. Take care.
Thank you for your previous response regarding Jada's acquisition deposit. After reviewing the language in the SEC filing, I had one additional question regarding the deposit that I'm hoping you can inquire of the company and provide some clarity on. In the SEC fling, the company states the following:
"The acquisition deposit will be returned to the Company with no interest before August 14, 2010, if there are no investments or acquisitions presented for consideration as of July 15, 2010."
My question is if an acquisition or investment is presented to the company for consideration by the 7/15 date, but JADA passes on the acquistion, will they still get the deposit back by August 14th? The verbage in the filing only states the deposit will be returned if they are not presented with a possible acquisition by July 15. It doesn't provide any details as to what will happen to the deposit and when it will be returned if an acquisition is presented to them, but they pass on it. Any clarification from the company you can obtain on this would be much appreciated.
Sincerely
XXX
didn't see your post Millstone. i do think this might be worth running by Hsin for clarification. i'll try to send out an email today.
Value,
Thanks for posting the language on the acquisition deposit again. After re-reading this, my question for anyone who may know is if they are presented with a possible acquisition but JADA passes on the acquisition, will they still get the deposit back in August - or will we have to wait for a later undetermined date?
I don't know what the SEC guidelines are on buybacks, but I think a reason a lot of companies buy their stock back is that they believe it is a good investment (i.e. undervalued) and they have the cash to do so. If the board approved a plan to say buy back a max of 5M shares over a 2 or 3 year period due to the current deflated price, my point is that the price would not stay deflated for very long and hence the value would begin trading at more reasonable prices (and perhaps no buyback would ever take place - or perhaps a much more limited buyback). Given the kind of cash JADA is generating right now on a quarterly basis as well as what they have on hand, setting aside $2 or $3 million dollars over the next few years to use to buy back shares as they see fit (i.e. if the price is below 50 cents for example) is not a bad idea. The announcement of such a plan IMO would do wonders for the pps.
I know there has been discussion on the Yahoo board regarding the positives of a share buyback. I'm not sure a significant share buyback is the best way to currently utilize their cash considering their plans for vertical integration, however, i do think a board approved buyback plan would be worthwhile - with accompanying 8-K and PR issued advertising such plan. It would give the company to ability to repurchase shares, but would not obligate them if they did not so choose. It would also put the short, naked shorts, manipulators on notice regarding this stock. JADA could provide much support for the stock and demonstrate concern for stockholders approving such a plan - again, without the need to ever act on it. Just a thought.
Perhaps Ray sees no need to pump the stock. He seems to be the type that underpromises and overdelivers. He seems to want to let the story tell itself and is being patient on the pps knowing that in the next 6 to 12 months it will work itself out quite nicely. His approach is preferred by me and I have no doubt in the long-run will garner much favor with individual investors and institutions.
Thanks
Rich,
Did he mention anything regarding the uplisting?
Thanks.
Millstone or Value - any thoughts/comments about the most recent posts related to the acquistion deposit and the broker the money is with? I have an email in to Hsin currently, but your take would be appreciated.
Thanks
I think CNOA had an acquisition deposit on its books to the same broker last year that was refunded in the first quarter of this year. The acquisition deposit never made sense to me either - given the amount of money we're talking about here. Given CNOA's connection to CHFI also, and using the same broker, does seem a little suspicious. I was glad to see the CNOA acquisition deposit refunded after the alotted time with no problems though. Could there be something fishy in this deposit - sure. However, it doesn't negate the fact that JADA is a cash cow and extremely undervalued. Another note - given that this deposit was on the books at 12/31, if their auditors have any competency whatsoever, then I have to believe this deposit (given its materiality) would have gotten more than a cursory look.
Definitely worthy of a question to the USA IR rep. If anyone hears back from her on this, please post --- I may try to contact her this week sometime myself.
Syracuseo - Thanks so much for all your work here. It is so good to see the company taking the steps to be more transparent and available to shareholders. In the past, I've found that when most companies open themselves up to communication like this, that they anticipate having a lot to communicate in the near future. Hopefully that will prove true with JADA. Thanks again!
BURP - have you been keeping an eye on JADA at all? could be due for another run.