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Hope you aren't just watching but buying as well. I think the ride here has just begun. Check out the stockhouse board for Tribute Pharmaceuticals and the Yahoo board for Pozen. Good discussions on both regarding what is transpiring here. I think there will be many more acquisitions prior to the Tribute and Pozen deal closing 4th quarter. If you get a chance, read kuatolives' posts on the stockhouse board. Good luck!
Interesting read from poster named "kuatolives" on the Tribute board at stockhouse.com.
POZN/Aralez could merge again before Q4
From the US Treasury Department:
"An inverted company is subject to potential adverse tax consequences if, after the transaction: (1) less than 25 percent of the new multinational entity’s business activity is in the home country of the new foreign parent, and (2) the shareholders of the old U.S. parent end up owning at least 60 percent of the shares of the new foreign parent. If these criteria are met for an inverted company, the tax consequences depend on the continuing ownership stake of the shareholders from the former U.S. parent. If the continuing ownership stake is 80 percent or more, the new foreign parent is treated as a U.S. corporation (despite the new corporate address), thereby nullifying the inversion for tax purposes. If the continuing ownership stake is at least 60 but less than 80 percent, U.S. tax law respects the foreign status of the new foreign parent but other potentially adverse tax consequences may follow. The current wave of inversions involves transactions in this continuing ownership range of 60 to 80 percent."
Given the new US treasury rules intended to throttle inversions, it's possible the nature of the TRX/POZN deal included the equity stake to Deerfield (resulting in an equity split of 28% to TRX, 54% to POZN and 17% to Deerfield) to keep parent sharehoulder equity under 60%. Going forward, this would put Aralez into a position to merge with yet another company of roughly 1.25B in valuation so the larger parent could 'buy into' the tax inversion and still maintain sub 60% ownership (sans any more equity buy-ins). It's not inconceivable this relatively low embarkation point could lead to a cascade of mergers with Aralez as other companies continually buy-into the Irish domicile, each deal of higher and higher valuations, but each company staying under a 60% equity stake. TRX shares today could be worth a helluva lot of money in a few years. It's also possible we could see the first such deal before Yosprala is approved by the FDA, as the value of POZN would theoretically be more after approval, therefore more expensive to buy-in. It's interesting that the new US treasury rules intended to thrwart inversions might actually create a cascade of them. glta.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/tbuff/tribute-pharmaceuticals-canada-inc#YQdeuVThCOzhZpi2.99
Link below to 1st quarter CC transcript
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3174826-tribute-pharmaceuticals-canadas-tbuff-ceo-robert-harris-on-q1-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript
The audio is on their website in the IR section.
Great quarter - could be a fun few years with this one!
It is still very quiet around here - which to me means this one hasn't even started to run yet. Perhaps uplisting to the TSX later this year will draw a few more eyes.
Here is a link to the company's website where they have uploaded a copy of the slides from the presentation at the healthcare investor conference they presented at today - some interesting tidbits included:
http://ir.stockpr.com/tributepharma/presentations
The company has released nothing new since the March year end conference call. Here is a link to the transcript from the CC which is very informative overall. I think on page 5 there is a brief discussion on Bezalip. Hopefully we'll get an update in May with Q1 earnings release and CC.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2969656-tribute-pharmaceuticals-canadas-tbuff-ceo-rob-harris-on-q4-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript
Re-listened to their 3rd quarter CC on Tribute's website. They expected the drugs in the Novartis deal to be immediately accretive, but were not going to be doing promotion via their sales reps until Q1 2015 on these drugs as I guess they are all getting up to speed. I suspect we will see a bigger bump in Q1 from the Novartis deal. They certainly look like they are on track to see a top line growth of 50% in 2015.
As I've had time to analyze today's PR a little more, it seems to me expected 4rth quarter revenue of $5.2M is a little bit of a let down. 3rd quarter revenue was $3.8M. The 10/2 transaction which added licenses for drugs that had a 12 month trailing revenue (see company presentation on their website) of $10M should have added at least $2.5M to the company's 4rth quarter revenue. Am I missing something here or is this revenue number a disappointment? TIA
nice update from the company today
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tribute-pharmaceuticals-provides-2014-revenues-133000212.html
TBUFF - one to keep an eye on - see today's update from the company
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tribute-pharmaceuticals-provides-2014-revenues-133000212.html
TBUFF - one to keep an eye on - see today's update from the company
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tribute-pharmaceuticals-provides-2014-revenues-133000212.html
TBUFF - one to keep an eye on - see today's update from the company
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tribute-pharmaceuticals-provides-2014-revenues-133000212.html
Anyone paying any attention to this stock? Bought in last fall. Looks like they are finally starting to pick up traction. Volume has exploded the past few days on the Toronto exchange for TRX (symbol for Tribute there). Per 3rd quarter conference call, they were expecting a good 4rth quarter - possibly positive EBITA. We could see a nice steady climb leading up to earnings release in March.
Hyperdynamics Responds to Force Majeure Assertion
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hyperdynamics-responds-force-majeure-assertion-110000138.html
HOUSTON, March 18, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Hyperdynamics Corporation (HDY) announced today that it has communicated to the Government of Guinea and Tullow its response to Tullow's assertion without advance notification or discussion of force majeure and suspension of plans to commence drilling of an exploratory well offshore Guinea.
Hyperdynamics believes Tullow's unilateral actions are unwarranted and untimely, and that a force majeure event has not occurred.
Hyperdynamics plans to have additional communications in an effort to recommence drilling plans. Hyperdynamics cannot predict the timing or outcome of these efforts.
About Hyperdynamics
Hyperdynamics is an emerging independent oil and gas exploration and production company that is exploring for oil and gas offshore the Republic of Guinea in West Africa. To find out more, visit our website at www.hyperdynamics.com.
Forward Looking Statements
This news release and the Company's website referenced in this news release contain forward looking statements regarding Hyperdynamics Corporation's future plans and expected performance that are based on assumptions the Company believes to be reasonable. Statements that include the words "believes," "expects," "anticipates," "intends," "projects," "estimates," "plans," and similar expressions or future or conditional verbs such as "will," "should," "would," "may" and "could" are generally forward-looking in nature and not historical facts. A number of risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements, including without limitation, funding and exploration efforts, fluctuations in oil and gas prices and other risk factors described from time to time in the Company's reports filed with the SEC. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update these forward looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the issuance of this news release or to reflect any change in the Company's expectations with respect to these forward looking statements.
Contacts:
Dennard - Lascar Associates
Jack Lascar, Managing Partner
(713) 529-6600
Anne Pearson, Sr. Vice President
(210) 408-6321
no - these were stock options issued in accordance with the company's stock incentive plan. they vest over the next three years.
yes, options would adjust as well
10 days until the 19th - my guess is we'll hear early to mid next week - can't imagine them announcing this the Monday of Thanksgiving week
I think it is 40% of the total concession - Dana has 23% - that leaves HDY with 37%.
I agree that obtaining a JV partner/operator is essential - however, I don't believe this one is a flip of a coin --- remember, in RL's most recent presentation, he stated every company they contacted (that had met HDY's criteria) were interested in moving forward. In addition, RL put his money where his mouth was by spending ~ $200,000 to exercise 400,000 shares worth of options (by the way, those options didn't expire until summer 2014) --- if Ray had any serious doubt that they'd be able to secure a JV deal, do you think he would have exercised those options?
I'm not saying there are not risks here - there certainly are. I personally think the significant risks will be on the drilling side - in regards to obtaining a partner, my question is who, how much and when, not if.
I agree. It kind of looks like putting quarters in a slot machine. If everything had gone just right, he'd of been a hero. Given the odds of success (re odds of a commerical find), it appears to have been very poor judgement on his part - very costly to the company and shareholdes as capital is so important right now. If RL didn't anticipate the drop that would occur without a commercial find, well he should have. This deal obviously had short timelines and our stock is very manipulatible (not sure if that is a word) in the short run. It truly stinks. He needs to hit a home run today during the CC --- we need more than well spoken words, we need substance. Let's hope he is up for the task and has encouraging, substantive things to share.
Hoping he comments on timeframe for a farmout and timeframe for the next well...
Agree - they'll disappear as quickly as they showed up as soon as they see there is no money to be made here.
This does not mean more dilution is on the way. HDY has a little over 150M outstanding right now. There is no reason in the short-term to raise the amount of authorized shares. I think this move may provide some flexibility in long-term planning.
I think the point of including those references in the PR was for one thing to put due pressure on the Jasper. Reputation is everything and they were served notice publicly.
Also, with the amendment to the contract allowing for the cancellation of the 2nd well for non-performance issues, it was going to have to be disclosed anyway.
The more I think about the "transformational deal" Ray mentioned, the more I think it will be some type of swap for a portion of our concession. If the deal is too good to pass up, then why wasn't it locked up by a larger oil company with plenty of money to spend who could do the deal sooner than later. There are an endless number of medium to large size O&G companies looking for proven reserves and willing to pay (especially with oil prices continuing to head north). My thought is this is a deal with a company that wants to expand or increase its interests in West Africa and take on a little more risk. I just don't see the point of a company with a prodcuing asset to offer waiting on HDY - our cash is not worth waiting on but a percentage of the Guinea concession might be. A stand alone deal - maybe, but I'm thinking not ---- I guess time will tell, and I don't mind being wrong - trusting RL to do what is best for the company, his own self-interest, and the interest of shareholders.
I think the institutions who've been buying this stock up over the last year want a whole lot more at as cheap a price as they can get and are doing quite a good job at keeping the pps down. Their days of keeping a lid on our pps are numbered though - positive drilling results should take care of that.
It seems that Mr. Palmer exercised options for over 66,000 shares of stock. To do this he outlayed $1.06 a share (close to $70,000) This type of transaction is usually what I see when officers of a company exercise options. They overall increase the total number of shares they hold, but they do sell a portion of the shares acquired when the options are exercised in order to cover their cost and pay their taxes. This appears to be what Mr. Palmer is doing here. He simply sold enough of the shares acquired to cover the cost to exercise and pay his taxes.
Per HDY's IR firm, HDY has received the prelimenary draft report from NS. My hope is we'll see a final report out and released to the public by the end of this week or sometime next week. Ray was a little optimistic on his end of July timeline, but it is always risky to give such time estimates when you are not in sole control of the timing of the output. I think we can cut him a little slack on this one though given that he's quadrupled the share price over the past year - a little more patience is required on our part.
Go back and listen to the ceo's most recent presentation in July (you can access a recording of the webcast on HDY's webpage). He sounds very enthusiastic about the 3D results and says shareholders won't be disappointed. Ray Leonard has proven himself competent and trustworthy since taking over the CEO spot --- I have no reason to doubt his characterizations of the 3D results.
3D report
I called HDY's IR firm and spoke with a rep there. They said NS has come back with a prelimenary report and HDY and NS are discussing back and forth and it should be finalized soon. It may come out tomorrow - it may come out early next week --- it just depends on how long it takes to finalize things between HDY and NS. It always helps to prepare ourselves expectation-wise.
Monday's presentation - slides are available on HDY's website. Per slide #9, the NSAI report is expected in late July.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/HDY/1302444266x0x482818/393c4b12-3da2-4aa0-b3dd-d3a51174b665/HDY%20Presentation%20July%202011.pdf
If the additional shorting the past month or so has only helped the shorts to keep a lid on the price (as opposed to decreasing it), then it would seem that covering will be very painful. It would seem, they've only dug a deeper hole for themselves --- I guess we'll just have to sit back with some popcorn and a coke and see how all this plays out.
The short interest during the 6/15 to 6/30 time frame went up by over 9M shares - and they were able to accomplish very little price-wise (below is the activity for each day during that time). Looks like the increase short position helped to keep a lid on the stock, but had little impact on moving the price down. The problem for shorts is, this lid is going to blow at some point.
Prices
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
Jun 30, 2011 4.42 4.45 4.22 4.30 2,166,100 4.30
Jun 29, 2011 4.29 4.49 4.14 4.41 5,462,500 4.41
Jun 28, 2011 4.04 4.22 3.84 4.21 3,566,000 4.21
Jun 27, 2011 4.36 4.36 4.00 4.03 4,070,300 4.03
Jun 24, 2011 4.38 4.56 4.31 4.32 20,431,500 4.32
Jun 23, 2011 4.23 4.34 4.13 4.34 3,895,900 4.34
Jun 22, 2011 4.33 4.49 4.25 4.30 3,399,300 4.30
Jun 21, 2011 4.25 4.33 4.20 4.33 2,821,200 4.33
Jun 20, 2011 4.21 4.29 4.12 4.14 1,419,400 4.14
Jun 17, 2011 4.36 4.40 4.16 4.16 3,595,000 4.16
Jun 16, 2011 4.17 4.41 4.11 4.28 3,436,400 4.28
Jun 15, 2011 4.32 4.32 4.00 4.24 2,999,400 4.24
Here is a link to the company's website where you can submit a question for the CC. I've submitted 4 or 5 already...utilize it if you have specific questions. In the past, Mr. Leonard has always done a pretty good job of addressing all the questions that have been submitted.
http://investors.hyperdynamics.com/events.cfm
Do I lack creativity - probably - I don't mind speculation - that is what most are here for. Putting my view of your style or name aside, I will address your most recent points - brace yourself for a real lack of creativity though:
I don't believe Blackrock was led to HDY by XON or anyone else - they already have a strong interest in West Africa through their other holdings (via Kosmos) and know the potential of the area. Any company with enough detailed information regarding the potential of HDY's concession via review of the seismic has only gained that knowledge by reviewing the data and thereby signing a confidentiality agreement that would certainly limit their ability to take us over in a hostile manner. In addtion, I think the Guinea government would be a consideration as well and RL's relationship there appears very strong. In my opinion, the safest way in at this point is taking a JV stake.
The short position does perplex me, but given that it increased significantly after the most recent offering, my assumption is that it is more of a hedge for some of the larger holders as opposed to a true short betting against the success of HDY. I'm sure there are shorts who tagged along as they saw the overall short position increase...I think many of these will eventually get caught in a strong ride up as we near the end of the summer unless they cover.
Perhaps I am naive (in addition to being uncreative), but I do have a lot of confidence in RL. I don't see him setting himself (and his team) up to benefit at the expense of shareholders. He has shown tremendous respect for the shareholders of this company. I believe he is an honorable man who is attempting to do right by the company, shareholders and Guinea.
This is all just my humble opinion. Regardless of our differences in style or opinion, it seems we are both hopeful for good things to come from our investments here, so I truly wish you the best.
I have no problem with speculative theories as that is what most posters here have. Your style of posting is one of authority or seeming inside knowledge...not of speculative thinking. Have you read any of your own posts? Perhaps if you starting them out with, hey this is what I think could be going on... --- instead you post with an air of authority as to what is going on behind the scenes. I find it a little presumptuous, but that is just me. My "intelligence" is limited to my personal due diligence, reading of SEC filings, listening to CCs, calls to the IR firm for clarification on questions, etc - I have at times shared this on the IHUB and IV board. My "intelligence" does not include inside knowledge or authoritative statements (ie strongly spoken guesses) that get people's hopes up or have the potential to mislead.
I can't remember the last time "Rockstar" was right about anything so I wouldn't worry too much.
Seeking Alpha on HDY
http://seekingalpha.com/article/271686-cramer-s-mad-money-the-skinny-on-weight-watchers-5-24-11
CEO Interview: Ray Leonard, Hyperdynamics (HDY)
Cramer took a look at speculative oil and gas play Hyperdynamics (HDY), with a $660 million market cap and selling at just $4.44. The stock is up 10% in recent trading, so Cramer would wait for a pullback. However, the stock is down 20% since it reported in February and since then, a report on its deep water assets in Guinea has indicated a 150% greater oil potential than previously expected.
Ray Leonard took issue with Cramer's describing Hyperdynamics as a "speculative" stock, since he thinks the company has removed a great deal of risk. "We are working at light speed," compared to rivals, and as a geologist, Leonard says the West Guinea assets are brilliant and among the largest in the continent. The company has solved its debt problems and the government in Guinea is now democratic and cleaning up corruption. "We have moved from high to middle risk," said Leonard.
"Please be careful, but you just heard the facts. It does sound like things are more stable than I would have said before the interview," said Cramer.
I'm curious to know if Blackrock and the other institutional holders are themselves shorting the stock or just loaning their shares out to be shorted. If they are short themselves, then I suspect they'll manage the pps somewhat to be able to steadily cover - if they've merely loaned the shares then, this could get real interesting in the coming weeks as we get closer to the NS report on the 3D data. I'd hate to be the last short to cover!