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Gottfried, that's a great chart, and possibly all someone needs to know in order to make a living from the market.
Nice chart, thanks. Looks like Les's 50DMA numbers picked out the latest top more convincingly than the $BPCOMPQ did. Or on the other hand maybe it wasn't a top and we need to wait for $BPCOMPQ to go higher. I think the former is the case.
How about a chart of the 50DMA numbers with $BPCOMPQ and QQQ or Nasdaq 100 ?
Then we can see which indicator best picks the turning points and at what extremes.
Why wait till the close? Why not just buy now?
If it goes down then you will have your forth red candle as we are already down for the day
If it goes up then you will have a profit
I dont know if this brings a better probability of a profit but u might know?
It took 90 mins since LoD to make a 4 pt bounce on the Nas.
It took three seconds to give up half of that gain!
Not exactly exhibiting strength here. Are you expecting support at 1426/7? Personally, I think support and resistance have become less important in the last 18 mths or so of trading. Seems other forces are at play like the spin that can be put on news and out of hours movements.
Larry,
I found the missing data so now have the number of Nas 100 stocks over various DMAs fr over two yrs.
All the data comes from Les Horowitz on SI who has done a great job of posting the figures regularly. It has taken a while to track it down as it is spread out amongst many posts on three different threads!
I will tabulate it and send it to u, but dont have time right now. The missing data can be found in the following 2 posts if u r impatient:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=16020313
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=16577902
"the real test is to use them(g)"
Definitely!
Especially seeing as popular sources of tickers such as $BPCOMPQ don't publish daily values until well after the close.
Larry, here is the data in a more friendly format.
I have also emailed this more friendly data to you as an excel workbook
Chunli
date NDX100 10dma 21dma 50dma 200dma
10/12/00 3004 6 10 12 28
10/13/00 3277 35 18 27 33
10/16/00 3249 36 25 25 31
10/17/00 3172 25 22 22 31
10/18/00 3139 30 22 20 30
10/19/00 3402 66 46 32 35
10/20/00 3456 66 45 33 37
10/23/00 3422 70 46 33 40
10/24/00 3353 66 48 34 36
10/25/00 3107 40 33 21 31
10/26/00 3167 49 40 29 35
10/27/00 3175 53 43 28 31
10/30/00 3081 51 41 26 32
10/31/00 3282 68 60 39 38
11/01/00 3225 65 58 40 37
11/02/00 3308 72 71 47 40
11/03/00 3321 76 68 42 38
11/06/00 3290 70 69 40 37
11/07/00 3279 67 68 42 38
11/08/00 3059 40 52 34 31
11/09/00 3057 28 43 34 32
11/10/00 2890 13 31 24 25
11/13/00 2836 12 28 24 21
11/14/00 3039 38 40 30 29
11/15/00 3076 44 45 35 31
11/16/00 2925 22 29 27 26
11/17/00 2934 34 31 30 26
11/20/00 2792 17 22 25 20
11/21/00 2786 27 25 24 24
11/22/00 2668 14 16 21 18
11/24/00 2830 49 32 31 22
11/27/00 2769 38 26 30 25
11/28/00 2621 15 15 20 21
11/29/00 2602 25 20 21 18
11/30/00 2506 16 12 15 15
12/01/00 2549 25 17 16 18
12/04/00 2554 27 17 17 21
12/05/00 2852 72 50 36 28
12/06/00 2743 57 36 26 27
12/07/00 2719 55 40 25 26
12/08/00 2895 75 61 38 33
12/11/00 2972 82 71 46 37
12/12/00 2863 82 69 36 31
12/13/00 2748 59 53 27 31
12/14/00 2639 30 40 22 24
12/15/00 2549 23 36 21 21
12/18/00 2543 25 40 26 24
12/19/00 2399 11 26 18 21
12/20/00 2210 4 6 8 16
12/21/00 2224 12 14 14 15
12/22/00 2436 38 38 28 24
12/26/00 2404 43 35 24 25
12/27/00 2460 53 42 28 29
12/28/00 2464 60 44 30 28
12/29/00 2341 37 28 19 23
01/02/01 2128 13 11 11 15
01/03/01 2528 80 53 35 27
01/04/01 2460 68 43 31 23
01/05/01 2267 32 38 21 18
01/08/01 2281 39 30 24 18
01/09/01 2311 44 37 25 18
01/10/01 2413 55 50 29 22
01/11/01 2524 73 65 42 23
01/12/01 2506 77 64 39 26
01/16/01 2470 71 63 39 23
01/17/01 2558 74 72 45 26
01/18/01 2670 82 80 57 35
01/19/01 2655 75 75 55 36
01/22/01 2643 77 77 58 33
01/23/01 2730 86 86 71 40
01/24/01 2726 72 82 70 37
01/25/01 2595 53 72 59 34
01/26/01 2631 53 74 62 37
01/29/01 2694 60 79 71 39
01/30/01 2686 61 74 70 39
01/31/01 2593 36 64 62 39
02/01/01 2607 39 59 65 36
02/02/01 2472 13 37 50 31
02/05/01 2467 15 34 48 31
02/06/01 2473 20 36 50 31
02/07/01 2409 21 31 45 29
02/08/01 2355 15 27 41 28
02/09/01 2261 13 20 37 29
02/12/01 2286 23 19 43 29
02/13/01 2208 14 15 32 27
02/14/01 2305 35 21 41 29
02/15/01 2371 59 29 44 32
02/16/01 2212 18 14 32 28
02/20/01 2095 13 13 22 27
02/21/01 2058 15 9 22 25
02/22/01 2032 11 11 24 25
02/23/01 2056 18 13 25 24
02/26/01 2097 41 23 30 26
02/27/01 1964 23 16 25 24
02/28/01 1908 18 14 20 22
03/01/01 1968 20 15 20 22
03/02/01 1881 22 15 20 20
03/05/01 1916 32 19 22 20
03/06/01 1976 53 24 25 21
03/07/01 1996 52 32 23 23
03/08/01 1938 44 26 23 21
03/09/01 1813 17 15 18 16
03/12/01 1680 2 6 10 14
03/13/01 1789 15 14 13 16
03/14/01 1745 15 15 13 17
03/15/01 1697 3 9 10 14
03/16/01 1647 2 5 7 12
03/19/01 1730 27 15 13 15
03/20/01 1614 5 4 8 13
03/21/01 1605 14 9 6 11
03/22/01 1701 51 15 10 14
03/23/01 1705 54 19 11 15
03/26/01 1676 52 21 11 16
03/27/01 1735 74 38 15 16
03/28/01 1602 37 17 11 15
03/29/01 1563 33 14 11 15
03/30/01 1573 34 20 8 16
04/02/01 1516 21 13 6 13
04/03/01 1399 3 3 2 8
04/04/01 1370 4 2 1 10
04/05/01 1519 32 25 7 13
04/06/01 1448 18 19 6 11
04/09/01 1481 41 30 8 12
04/10/01 1597 75 48 18 12
04/11/01 1647 84 60 22 10
04/12/01 1714 90 76 29 16
04/16/01 1650 84 64 26 13
04/17/01 1671 88 69 32 16
04/18/01 1830 98 92 46 20
04/19/01 1953 98 91 65 24
04/20/01 1933 92 92 62 22
04/23/01 1811 76 83 47 17
04/24/01 1762 53 76 46 17
04/25/01 1814 68 84 55 20
04/26/01 1763 48 81 48 20
04/27/01 1810 68 86 57 21
04/30/01 1855 78 92 66 23
05/01/01 1919 86 95 75 26
05/02/01 1962 87 96 82 25
05/03/01 1877 57 84 69 23
05/04/01 1923 75 87 79 25
05/07/01 1895 59 82 74 25
05/08/01 1929 62 84 79 26
05/09/01 1876 38 64 73 25
05/10/01 1838 20 54 70 22
05/11/01 1821 15 46 65 21
05/14/01 1795 11 34 62 22
05/15/01 1796 15 32 63 22
05/16/01 1899 69 66 78 26
05/17/01 1925 75 67 88 29
05/18/01 1927 70 64 83 30
05/21/01 2052 89 84 93 35
05/22/01 2042 93 87 94 34
05/23/01 1957 76 69 84 28
05/24/01 2003 78 73 89 33
05/25/01 1960 61 63 84 33
05/29/01 1873 18 36 67 27
05/30/01 1779 6 19 53 25
05/31/01 1799 10 26 55 26
06/01/01 1840 25 36 60 27
06/04/01 1838 24 34 58 27
06/05/01 1923 60 55 73 29
06/06/01 1903 57 56 68 29
06/07/01 1963 73 68 73 32
06/08/01 1896 54 50 69 29
06/11/01 1846 35 30 59 29
06/12/01 1852 40 36 59 29
06/13/01 1790 20 22 46 29
06/14/01 1711 7 10 28 26
06/15/01 1701 13 11 30 25
06/18/01 1666 8 11 29 24
06/19/01 1675 16 15 31 26
06/20/01 1721 43 34 41 27
06/29/01 1832 86 64 54 34
07/02/01 1827 83 66 55 33
07/03/01 1822 69 60 53 34
07/05/01 1751 34 40 41 32
07/06/01 1668 7 19 23 26
07/09/01 1697 15 31 27 26
07/10/01 1624 11 15 21 25
07/11/01 1641 13 24 26 26
07/12/01 1750 52 53 38 26
07/13/01 1751 48 48 34 26
07/16/01 1685 28 32 25 25
07/17/01 1729 53 43 28 26
07/18/01 1666 33 28 27 27
07/19/01 1695 51 38 26 24
07/20/01 1676 47 35 28 26
07/23/01 1629 24 26 23 23
07/24/01 1604 15 11 19 22
07/25/01 1627 23 23 22 23
07/26/01 1673 50 35 29 24
07/27/01 1683 57 45 29 24
07/30/01 1670 51 39 29 24
07/31/01 1683 63 49 29 24
08/01/01 1729 72 58 42 26
08/02/01 1751 76 59 46 27
08/03/01 1725 71 56 41 26
08/06/01 1702 62 49 39 25
08/07/01 1696 51 50 36 24
08/08/01 1626 17 26 23 24
08/09/01 1628 17 26 20 24
08/10/01 1617 13 25 23 24
08/13/01 1653 34 42 35 25
08/14/01 1629 22 31 27 25
08/15/01 1572 16 12 20 24
08/16/01 1581 20 20 19 25
08/17/01 1516 11 9 10 20
08/20/01 1535 14 16 15 23
08/21/01 1480 7 9 7 19
08/22/01 1515 22 16 16 19
08/23/01 1496 24 14 15 20
08/24/01 1579 58 36 31 26
08/27/01 1578 66 40 29 26
08/28/01 1526 38 21 22 23
08/29/01 1499 26 15 17 20
08/30/01 1453 17 13 15 23
08/31/01 1469 30 15 18 23
09/04/01 1424 18 14 12 21
09/05/01 1415 15 15 10 20
09/06/01 1361 10 12 9 17
09/07/01 1354 4 7 9 14
09/10/01 1365 8 8 7 15
09/17/01 1252 2 0 3 3
09/18/01 1224 3 1 2 3
09/19/01 1208 5 2 1 1
09/20/01 1166 5 1 2 0
09/21/01 1126 4 2 1 0
09/24/01 1191 17 4 3 1
09/25/01 1187 18 5 2 1
09/26/01 1172 10 3 2 1
09/27/01 1144 29 6 5 2
09/28/01 1168 40 9 5 4
10/01/01 1150 37 11 7 5
10/02/01 1158 46 17 7 5
10/03/01 1249 81 43 13 7
10/04/01 1261 83 45 10 7
10/05/01 1271 83 56 8 10
10/08/01 1279 77 59 9 7
10/09/01 1244 72 47 7 6
10/10/01 1304 89 78 20 10
10/11/01 1389 94 94 39 18
10/16/01 1405 97 96 51 16
10/26/01 1455 82 92 75 24
10/29/01 1374 37 72 50 13
10/30/01 1342 15 47 41 14
10/31/01 1364 32 59 52 14
11/01/01 1424 63 74 65 20
11/02/01 1425 55 68 68 21
11/05/01 1480 77 83 79 27
11/06/01 1523 84 86 84 27
11/07/01 1524 89 87 85 27
11/08/01 1510 82 80 81 26
11/09/01 1514 85 82 85 28
11/12/01 1528 83 81 85 27
11/13/01 1580 91 87 91 31
11/14/01 1585 88 90 92 32
11/15/01 1582 81 90 92 32
11/16/01 1582 77 87 92 32
11/19/01 1617 81 90 94 36
11/20/01 1549 47 78 91 31
11/21/01 1552 45 80 93 31
11/23/01 1577 56 86 93 33
11/26/01 1619 83 92 93 37
11/27/01 1609 61 88 94 37
11/28/01 1557 36 60 94 33
11/29/01 1599 55 75 92 37
11/30/01 1596 47 66 91 38
12/03/01 1567 39 53 87 35
12/04/01 1634 77 77 91 47
12/05/01 1720 91 90 94 60
12/06/01 1717 90 92 93 61
12/07/01 1673 78 81 93 55
12/10/01 1645 62 69 92 52
12/11/01 1661 65 69 90 53
12/12/01 1669 66 69 87 53
12/13/01 1601 28 50 81 45
12/14/01 1605 25 48 80 47
12/17/01 1640 47 66 80 55
12/18/01 1657 55 66 84 56
12/19/01 1628 40 55 79 53
12/20/01 1557 25 31 61 49
12/21/01 1578 34 36 68 51
12/24/01 1577 38 34 65 50
12/26/01 1590 44 43 70 52
12/27/01 1606 57 46 77 53
12/28/01 1621 72 54 77 54
12/31/01 1577 40 34 67 51
01/02/02 1610 58 47 74 51
01/03/02 1666 70 70 76 56
01/04/02 1675 70 72 77 60
01/07/02 1649 57 63 71 59
01/08/02 1666 62 64 72 59
01/09/02 1653 56 60 65 56
01/10/02 1656 56 63 68 56
01/11/02 1634 34 47 66 53
01/14/02 1603 21 36 58 48
01/15/02 1612 21 36 57 48
01/16/02 1558 7 15 32 44
01/17/02 1602 25 32 51 46
01/18/02 1548 7 17 34 42
01/22/02 1501 8 11 23 40
01/23/02 1549 30 22 34 46
01/24/02 1565 41 26 38 46
01/25/02 1558 46 27 42 45
01/28/02 1564 57 41 45 46
01/29/02 1519 35 23 31 45
01/30/02 1538 44 34 38 43
01/31/02 1550 45 35 38 43
02/01/02 1528 37 26 31 39
02/04/02 1479 16 16 26 32
02/05/02 1463 17 16 22 35
02/06/02 1446 14 13 21 34
02/07/02 1414 6 10 17 28
02/08/02 1452 28 18 22 35
02/11/02 1477 51 30 26 38
02/12/02 1464 45 32 24 38
02/13/02 1486 62 41 27 42
02/14/02 1474 58 36 24 40
02/15/02 1436 36 27 21 35
02/19/02 1387 16 16 16 30
02/20/02 1408 33 27 21 31
02/21/02 1348 14 13 14 27
02/22/02 1356 17 20 19 25
02/25/02 1407 41 34 25 33
02/26/02 1401 47 36 26 33
02/27/02 1378 36 35 22 32
02/28/02 1359 33 32 22 30
03/01/02 1435 77 52 33 40
03/04/02 1494 89 78 47 47
03/05/02 1499 89 81 47 45
03/06/02 1520 93 84 53 53
03/07/02 1507 87 82 48 46
03/08/02 1555 87 85 61 53
03/11/02 1554 87 86 64 54
03/12/02 1520 78 83 53 53
03/13/02 1486 49 78 41 53
03/14/02 1477 42 73 49 53
03/15/02 1495 42 77 54 52
03/18/02 1506 50 82 57 54
03/19/02 1504 54 75 55 53
03/20/02 1451 22 51 43 51
03/21/02 1489 42 71 55 50
03/22/02 1470 35 62 51 49
03/25/02 1427 3 23 43 46
03/26/02 1439 20 35 42 47
03/27/02 1436 27 38 45 48
03/28/02 1453 42 39 45 46
04/01/02 1478 58 51 57 49
04/02/02 1410 24 17 42 44
04/03/02 1394 25 14 41 44
04/04/02 1397 31 19 37 42
04/05/02 1376 14 14 32 38
04/08/02 1393 26 19 36 41
04/09/02 1345 14 12 28 36
04/10/02 1363 27 19 33 39
04/11/02 1324 19 15 25 36
04/12/02 1352 33 21 31 39
04/15/02 1355 42 24 32 42
04/16/02 1414 81 54 46 42
04/17/02 1403 73 51 49 45
04/18/02 1396 75 51 48 45
04/19/02 1385 66 43 46 44
04/22/02 1350 33 25 33 41
04/23/02 1323 22 21 25 37
04/24/02 1302 16 16 19 33
04/25/02 1302 17 19 25 32
04/26/02 1251 7 10 12 29
04/29/02 1246 6 9 10 27
04/30/02 1277 26 20 20 32
05/01/02 1267 24 18 20 34
05/02/02 1225 13 11 11 26
05/03/02 1190 10 9 6 25
05/06/02 1161 6 7 8 23
05/07/02 1159 11 7 9 22
05/08/02 1282 76 44 25 31
05/09/02 1240 55 26 18 30
05/10/02 1188 22 15 11 27
05/13/02 1241 60 29 19 30
05/14/02 1305 89 59 35 37
05/15/02 1311 91 63 36 38
05/16/02 1316 84 66 39 40
05/17/02 1326 89 75 40 41
05/20/02 1292 77 60 36 39
05/21/02 1256 31 47 25 34
05/22/02 1264 41 51 25 36
05/23/02 1286 57 62 24 36
05/24/02 1253 23 46 23 32
05/28/02 1245 19 43 20 32
05/29/02 1218 11 31 20 31
05/30/02 1228 14 33 19 32
05/31/02 1208 12 26 23 30
06/03/02 1159 5 11 9 26
06/04/02 1179 12 13 14 25
06/05/02 1195 18 14 14 28
06/06/02 1157 10 6 11 23
06/07/02 1140 18 11 11 22
06/10/02 1135 20 13 9 22
06/11/02 1101 11 5 8 18
06/12/02 1123 20 14 13 21
06/13/02 1106 13 7 8 19
06/14/02 1109 25 8 7 19
06/17/02 1150 56 23 18 22
06/18/02 1138 50 23 15 24
06/19/02 1097 34 16 11 22
06/20/02 1062 18 9 8 15
06/21/02 1035 9 7 9 15
06/24/02 1057 20 9 10 16
06/25/02 1022 8 7 8 15
06/26/02 1027 11 12 10 15
06/27/02 1050 28 14 10 16
06/28/02 1050 32 18 12 17
07/01/02 998 10 7 8 13
07/02/02 963 6 5 6 9
07/03/02 995 20 7 7 11
07/05/02 1061 71 32 11 16
07/08/02 1014 36 13 7 11
07/09/02 990 21 11 6 9
07/10/02 959 13 6 5 8
07/11/02 998 35 18 6 9
07/12/02 1001 46 22 8 7
07/15/02 1021 60 39 13 8
07/16/02 1011 64 39 13 7
07/17/02 1029 65 49 16 9
07/18/02 994 41 35 12 6
07/19/02 965 35 30 9 5
07/22/02 939 29 24 6 2
07/23/02 897 9 10 2 3
07/24/02 951 33 28 11 5
07/25/02 894 22 15 6 4
07/26/02 911 29 18 11 4
07/29/02 970 57 48 16 11
07/30/02 980 71 48 21 9
07/31/02 962 62 47 22 8
08/01/02 913 36 28 13 6
08/02/02 892 24 20 14 4
08/05/02 857 4 13 7 3
08/06/02 902 23 25 16 4
08/07/02 919 44 31 17 4
08/08/02 947 63 44 21 7
08/09/02 937 51 40 23 7
08/12/02 939 61 40 23 7
08/13/02 907 28 30 17 5
08/14/02 969 80 59 31 9
08/15/02 981 82 68 36 10
08/16/02 996 87 75 44 11
08/19/02 1026 83 82 52 13
08/20/02 1008 80 79 49 12
08/21/02 1035 95 89 60 13
08/22/02 1049 96 94 61 14
08/23/02 1010 68 77 50 12
08/26/02 1017 66 80 56 14
08/27/02 974 27 54 43 8
08/28/02 945 9 31 30 8
08/29/02 961 16 48 38 9
08/30/02 942 9 33 31 8
09/03/02 899 3 11 17 7
09/04/02 921 7 20 26 7
09/05/02 883 2 10 19 6
09/06/02 922 23 27 32 7
09/09/02 932 36 33 36 8
09/10/02 947 65 35 40 10
09/11/02 946 70 33 41 9
09/12/02 915 31 16 29 8
09/13/02 924 45 20 31 10
09/16/02 908 30 16 29 10
09/17/02 897 22 15 26 10
09/18/02 895 26 16 27 11
09/19/02 866 9 7 18 9
09/20/02 871 12 14 22 10
09/23/02 843 8 11 13 9
09/24/02 843 12 13 10 8
09/25/02 880 51 24 25 10
09/26/02 873 46 31 24 10
09/27/02 860 35 26 22 10
09/30/02 832 23 12 17 8
10/01/02 870 53 30 22 9
10/02/02 849 30 23 17 9
10/03/02 833 26 15 17 8
10/04/02 815 17 11 11 8
10/07/02 804 11 9 8 7
10/08/02 811 14 13 14 8
10/09/02 807 20 17 11 7
10/10/02 849 59 33 20 9
10/11/02 890 86 63 32 11
10/14/02 900 93 67 41 14
10/15/02 950 97 90 50 20
10/16/02 910 90 75 44 18
10/17/02 945 89 83 57 19
10/18/02 956 86 82 58 19
10/21/02 979 89 85 65 23
10/22/02 964 84 84 62 19
10/23/02 989 85 88 71 22
10/24/02 965 70 82 63 18
10/25/02 995 81 91 75 21
10/28/02 979 66 88 75 18
10/29/02 961 47 82 67 17
10/30/02 986 70 87 72 21
10/31/02 989 69 86 76 19
11/01/02 1019 86 92 85 23
11/04/02 1047 85 90 88 24
11/05/02 1050 86 88 90 27
11/06/02 1066 89 88 92 26
11/07/02 1025 67 84 86 25
11/08/02 1008 42 71 82 26
11/11/02 972 13 44 72 19
11/12/02 1002 28 63 83 18
11/13/02 1012 33 65 83 21
11/14/02 1058 73 82 88 28
11/15/02 1061 77 82 89 31
11/18/02 1045 66 74 82 27
11/19/02 1026 51 64 82 25
11/20/02 1070 80 77 87 38
11/21/02 1118 93 90 90 43
11/22/02 1116 91 88 90 43
11/25/02 1127 90 88 89 45
11/26/02 1087 72 75 86 39
11/27/02 1125 84 84 89 46
11/29/02 1116 81 80 88 45
12/02/02 1120 75 79 88 45
12/03/02 1089 31 69 86 41
12/04/02 1069 17 50 81 37
12/05/02 1053 10 39 78 32
12/06/02 1066 22 48 81 38
12/09/02 1015 6 21 69 26
12/10/02 1033 11 26 72 32
12/11/02 1036 13 21 73 30
12/12/02 1040 22 25 69 34
12/13/02 1006 10 11 56 26
12/16/02 1042 44 25 68 34
12/17/02 1040 46 20 66 34
12/18/02 1013 22 16 50 32
12/19/02 1006 20 14 43 31
12/20/02 1013 36 20 45 33
12/23/02 1032 59 34 60 47
12/24/02 1023 50 33 52 47
12/26/02 1016 39 28 47 45
12/27/02 998 14 18 35 42
12/30/02 990 11 17 31 41
12/31/02 984 13 18 30 38
01/02/03 1028 78 54 47 45
01/03/03 1031 79 58 50 48
Month, Day, Yr, Nas 100, Number of stocks above 10DMA
Jan 3 2003 1031 79
Jan 2 2003 1028 78
Dec 31 2002 984 13
Dec 30 2002 990 11
Dec 27 2002 998 14
Dec 26 2002 1016 39
Dec 24 2002 1023 50
Dec 23 2002 1032 59
Dec 20 2002 1013 36
Dec 19 2002 1006 20
Dec 18 2002 1013 22
Dec 17 2002 1040 46
Dec 16 2002 1042 44
Dec 13 2002 1006 10
Dec 12 2002 1040 22
Dec 11 2002 1036 13
Dec 10 2002 1033 11
Dec 9 2002 1015 6
Dec 6 2002 1066 22
Dec 5 2002 1053 10
Dec 4 2002 1069 17
Dec 3 2002 1089 31
Dec 2 2002 1120 75
Nov 29 2002 1116 81
Nov 27 2002 1125 84
Nov 26 2002 1087 72
Nov 25 2002 1127 90
Nov 22 2002 1116 91
Nov 21 2002 1118 93
Nov 20 2002 1070 80
Nov 19 2002 1026 51
Nov 18 2002 1045 66
Nov 15 2002 1061 77
Nov 14 2002 1058 73
Nov 13 2002 1012 33
Nov 12 2002 1002 28
Nov 11 2002 972 13
Nov 8 2002 1008 42
Nov 7 2002 1025 67
Nov 6 2002 1066 89
Nov 5 2002 1050 86
Nov 4 2002 1047 85
Nov 1 2002 1019 86
Oct 31 2002 989 69
Oct 30 2002 986 70
Oct 29 2002 961 47
Oct 28 2002 979 66
Oct 25 2002 995 81
Oct 24 2002 965 70
Oct 23 2002 989 85
Oct 22 2002 964 84
Oct 21 2002 979 89
Oct 18 2002 956 86
Oct 17 2002 945 89
Oct 16 2002 910 90
Oct 15 2002 950 97
Oct 14 2002 900 93
Oct 11 2002 890 86
Oct 10 2002 849 59
Oct 9 2002 807 20
Oct 8 2002 811 14
Oct 7 2002 804 11
Oct 4 2002 815 17
Oct 3 2002 833 26
Oct 2 2002 849 30
Oct 1 2002 870 53
Sep 30 2002 832 23
Sep 27 2002 860 35
Sep 26 2002 873 46
Sep 25 2002 880 51
Sep 24 2002 843 12
Sep 23 2002 843 8
Sep 20 2002 871 12
Sep 19 2002 866 9
Sep 18 2002 895 26
Sep 17 2002 897 22
Sep 16 2002 908 30
Sep 13 2002 924 45
Sep 12 2002 915 31
Sep 11 2002 946 70
Sep 10 2002 947 65
Sep 9 2002 932 36
Sep 6 2002 922 23
Sep 5 2002 883 2
Sep 4 2002 921 7
Sep 3 2002 899 3
Aug 30 2002 942 9
Aug 29 2002 961 16
Aug 28 2002 945 9
Aug 27 2002 974 27
Aug 26 2002 1017 66
Aug 23 2002 1010 68
Aug 22 2002 1049 96
Aug 21 2002 1035 95
Aug 20 2002 1008 80
Aug 19 2002 1026 83
Aug 16 2002 996 87
Aug 15 2002 981 82
Aug 14 2002 969 80
Aug 13 2002 907 28
Aug 12 2002 939 61
Aug 9 2002 937 51
Aug 8 2002 947 63
Aug 7 2002 919 44
Aug 6 2002 902 23
Aug 5 2002 857 4
Aug 2 2002 892 24
Aug 1 2002 913 36
Jul 31 2002 962 62
Jul 30 2002 980 71
Jul 29 2002 970 57
Jul 26 2002 911 29
Jul 25 2002 894 22
Jul 24 2002 951 33
Jul 23 2002 897 9
Jul 22 2002 939 29
Jul 19 2002 965 35
Jul 18 2002 994 41
Jul 17 2002 1029 65
Jul 16 2002 1011 64
Jul 15 2002 1021 60
Jul 12 2002 1001 46
Jul 11 2002 998 35
Jul 10 2002 959 13
Jul 9 2002 990 21
Jul 8 2002 1014 36
Jul 5 2002 1061 71
Jul 3 2002 995 20
Jul 2 2002 963 6
Jul 1 2002 998 10
Jun 28 2002 1050 32
Jun 27 2002 1050 28
Jun 26 2002 1027 11
Jun 25 2002 1022 8
Jun 24 2002 1057 20
Jun 21 2002 1035 9
Jun 20 2002 1062 18
Jun 19 2002 1097 34
Jun 18 2002 1138 50
Jun 17 2002 1150 56
Jun 14 2002 1109 25
Jun 13 2002 1106 13
Jun 12 2002 1123 20
Jun 11 2002 1101 11
Jun 10 2002 1135 20
Jun 7 2002 1140 18
Jun 6 2002 1157 10
Jun 5 2002 1195 18
Jun 4 2002 1179 12
Jun 3 2002 1159 5
May 31 2002 1208 12
May 30 2002 1228 14
May 29 2002 1218 11
May 28 2002 1245 19
May 24 2002 1253 23
May 23 2002 1286 57
May 22 2002 1264 41
May 21 2002 1256 31
May 20 2002 1292 77
May 17 2002 1326 89
May 16 2002 1316 84
May 15 2002 1311 91
May 14 2002 1305 89
May 13 2002 1241 60
May 10 2002 1188 22
May 9 2002 1240 55
May 8 2002 1282 76
May 7 2002 1159 11
May 6 2002 1161 6
May 3 2002 1190 10
May 2 2002 1225 13
May 1 2002 1267 24
Apr 30 2002 1277 26
Apr 29 2002 1246 6
Apr 26 2002 1251 7
Apr 25 2002 1302 17
Apr 24 2002 1302 16
Apr 23 2002 1323 22
Apr 22 2002 1350 33
Apr 19 2002 1385 66
Apr 18 2002 1396 75
Apr 17 2002 1403 73
Apr 16 2002 1414 81
Apr 15 2002 1355 42
Apr 12 2002 1352 33
Apr 11 2002 1324 19
Apr 10 2002 1363 27
Apr 9 2002 1345 14
Apr 8 2002 1393 26
Apr 5 2002 1376 14
Apr 4 2002 1397 31
Apr 3 2002 1394 25
Apr 2 2002 1410 24
Apr 1 2002 1478 58
Mar 28 2002 1453 42
Mar 27 2002 1436 27
Mar 26 2002 1439 20
Mar 25 2002 1427 3
Mar 22 2002 1470 35
Mar 21 2002 1489 42
Mar 20 2002 1451 22
Mar 19 2002 1504 54
Mar 18 2002 1506 50
Mar 15 2002 1495 42
Mar 14 2002 1477 42
Mar 13 2002 1486 49
Mar 12 2002 1520 78
Mar 11 2002 1554 87
Mar 8 2002 1555 87
Mar 7 2002 1507 87
Mar 6 2002 1520 93
Mar 5 2002 1499 89
Mar 4 2002 1494 89
Mar 1 2002 1435 77
Feb 28 2002 1359 33
Feb 27 2002 1378 36
Feb 26 2002 1401 47
Feb 25 2002 1407 41
Feb 22 2002 1356 17
Feb 21 2002 1348 14
Feb 20 2002 1408 33
Feb 19 2002 1387 16
Feb 15 2002 1436 36
Feb 14 2002 1474 58
Feb 13 2002 1486 62
Feb 12 2002 1464 45
Feb 11 2002 1477 51
Feb 8 2002 1452 28
Feb 7 2002 1414 6
Feb 6 2002 1446 14
Feb 5 2002 1463 17
Feb 4 2002 1479 16
Feb 1 2002 1528 37
Jan 31 2002 1550 45
Jan 30 2002 1538 44
Jan 29 2002 1519 35
Jan 28 2002 1564 57
Jan 25 2002 1558 46
Jan 24 2002 1565 41
Jan 23 2002 1549 30
Jan 22 2002 1501 8
Jan 18 2002 1548 7
Jan 17 2002 1602 25
Jan 16 2002 1558 7
Jan 15 2002 1612 21
Jan 14 2002 1603 21
Jan 11 2002 1634 34
Jan 10 2002 1656 56
Jan 9 2002 1653 56
Jan 8 2002 1666 62
Jan 7 2002 1649 57
Jan 4 2002 1675 70
Jan 3 2002 1666 70
Jan 2 2002 1610 58
Dec 31 2001 1577 40
Dec 28 2001 1621 72
Dec 27 2001 1606 57
Dec 26 2001 1590 44
Dec 24 2001 1577 38
Dec 21 2001 1578 34
Dec 20 2001 1557 25
Dec 19 2001 1628 40
Dec 18 2001 1657 55
Dec 17 2001 1640 47
Dec 14 2001 1605 25
Dec 13 2001 1601 28
Dec 12 2001 1669 66
Dec 11 2001 1661 65
Dec 10 2001 1645 62
Dec 7 2001 1673 78
Dec 6 2001 1717 90
Dec 5 2001 1720 91
Dec 4 2001 1634 77
Dec 3 2001 1567 39
Nov 30 2001 1596 47
Nov 29 2001 1599 55
Nov 28 2001 1557 36
Nov 27 2001 1609 61
Nov 26 2001 1619 83
Nov 23 2001 1577 56
Nov 21 2001 1552 45
Nov 20 2001 1549 47
Nov 19 2001 1617 81
Nov 16 2001 1582 77
Nov 15 2001 1582 81
Nov 14 2001 1585 88
Nov 13 2001 1580 91
Nov 12 2001 1528 83
Nov 9 2001 1514 85
Nov 8 2001 1510 82
Nov 7 2001 1524 89
Nov 6 2001 1523 84
Nov 5 2001 1480 77
Nov 2 2001 1425 55
Nov 1 2001 1424 63
Oct 31 2001 1364 32
Oct 30 2001 1342 15
Oct 29 2001 1374 37
Oct 26 2001 1455 82
Oct 16 2001 1405 97
Oct 11 2001 1389 94
Oct 10 2001 1304 89
Oct 9 2001 1244 72
Oct 8 2001 1279 77
Oct 5 2001 1271 83
Oct 4 2001 1261 83
Oct 3 2001 1249 81
Oct 2 2001 1158 46
Oct 1 2001 1150 37
Sep 28 2001 1168 40
Sep 27 2001 1144 29
Sep 26 2001 1172 10
Sep 25 2001 1187 18
Sep 24 2001 1191 17
Sep 21 2001 1126 4
Sep 20 2001 1166 5
Sep 19 2001 1208 5
Sep 18 2001 1224 3
Sep 17 2001 1252 2
Sep 10 2001 1365 8
Sep 7 2001 1354 4
Sep 6 2001 1361 10
Sep 5 2001 1415 15
Sep 4 2001 1424 18
Aug 31 2001 1469 30
Aug 30 2001 1453 17
Aug 29 2001 1499 26
Aug 28 2001 1526 38
Aug 27 2001 1578 66
Aug 24 2001 1579 58
Aug 23 2001 1496 24
Aug 22 2001 1515 22
Aug 21 2001 1480 7
Aug 20 2001 1535 14
Aug 17 2001 1516 11
Aug 16 2001 1581 20
Aug 15 2001 1572 16
Aug 14 2001 1629 22
Aug 13 2001 1653 34
Aug 10 2001 1617 13
Aug 9 2001 1628 17
Aug 8 2001 1626 17
Aug 7 2001 1696 51
Aug 6 2001 1702 62
Aug 3 2001 1725 71
Aug 2 2001 1751 76
Aug 1 2001 1729 72
Jul 31 2001 1683 63
Jul 30 2001 1670 51
Jul 27 2001 1683 57
Jul 26 2001 1673 50
Jul 25 2001 1627 23
Jul 24 2001 1604 15
Jul 23 2001 1629 24
Jul 20 2001 1676 47
Jul 19 2001 1695 51
Jul 18 2001 1666 33
Jul 17 2001 1729 53
Jul 16 2001 1685 28
Jul 13 2001 1751 48
Jul 12 2001 1750 52
Jul 11 2001 1641 13
Jul 10 2001 1624 11
Jul 9 2001 1697 15
Jul 6 2001 1668 7
Jul 5 2001 1751 34
Jul 3 2001 1822 69
Jul 2 2001 1827 83
Jun 29 2001 1832 86
Jun 20 2001 1721 43
Jun 19 2001 1675 16
Jun 18 2001 1666 8
Jun 15 2001 1701 13
Jun 14 2001 1711 7
Jun 13 2001 1790 20
Jun 12 2001 1852 40
Jun 11 2001 1846 35
Jun 8 2001 1896 54
Jun 7 2001 1963 73
Jun 6 2001 1903 57
Jun 5 2001 1923 60
Jun 4 2001 1838 24
Jun 1 2001 1840 25
May 31 2001 1799 10
May 30 2001 1779 6
May 29 2001 1873 18
May 25 2001 1960 61
May 24 2001 2003 78
May 23 2001 1957 76
May 22 2001 2042 93
May 21 2001 2052 89
May 18 2001 1927 70
May 17 2001 1925 75
May 16 2001 1899 69
May 15 2001 1796 15
May 14 2001 1795 11
May 11 2001 1821 15
May 10 2001 1838 20
May 9 2001 1876 38
May 8 2001 1929 62
May 7 2001 1895 59
May 4 2001 1923 75
May 3 2001 1877 57
May 2 2001 1962 87
May 1 2001 1919 86
Apr 30 2001 1855 78
Apr 27 2001 1810 68
Apr 26 2001 1763 48
Apr 25 2001 1814 68
Apr 24 2001 1762 53
Apr 23 2001 1811 76
Apr 20 2001 1933 92
Apr 19 2001 1953 98
Apr 18 2001 1830 98
Apr 17 2001 1671 88
Apr 16 2001 1650 84
Apr 12 2001 1714 90
Apr 11 2001 1647 84
Apr 10 2001 1597 75
Apr 9 2001 1481 41
Apr 6 2001 1448 18
Apr 5 2001 1519 32
Apr 4 2001 1370 4
Apr 3 2001 1399 3
Apr 2 2001 1516 21
Mar 30 2001 1573 34
Mar 29 2001 1563 33
Mar 28 2001 1602 37
Mar 27 2001 1735 74
Mar 26 2001 1676 52
Mar 23 2001 1705 54
Mar 22 2001 1701 51
Mar 21 2001 1605 14
Mar 20 2001 1614 5
Mar 19 2001 1730 27
Mar 16 2001 1647 2
Mar 15 2001 1697 3
Mar 14 2001 1745 15
Mar 13 2001 1789 15
Mar 12 2001 1680 2
Mar 9 2001 1813 17
Mar 8 2001 1938 44
Mar 7 2001 1996 52
Mar 6 2001 1976 53
Mar 5 2001 1916 32
Mar 2 2001 1881 22
Mar 1 2001 1968 20
Feb 28 2001 1908 18
Feb 27 2001 1964 23
Feb 26 2001 2097 41
Feb 23 2001 2056 18
Feb 22 2001 2032 11
Feb 21 2001 2058 15
Feb 20 2001 2095 13
Feb 16 2001 2212 18
Feb 15 2001 2371 59
Feb 14 2001 2305 35
Feb 13 2001 2208 14
Feb 12 2001 2286 23
Feb 9 2001 2261 13
Feb 8 2001 2355 15
Feb 7 2001 2409 21
Feb 6 2001 2473 20
Feb 5 2001 2467 15
Feb 2 2001 2472 13
Feb 1 2001 2607 39
Jan 31 2001 2593 36
Jan 30 2001 2686 61
Jan 29 2001 2694 60
Jan 26 2001 2631 53
Jan 25 2001 2595 53
Jan 24 2001 2726 72
Jan 23 2001 2730 86
Jan 22 2001 2643 77
Jan 19 2001 2655 75
Jan 18 2001 2670 82
Jan 17 2001 2558 74
Jan 16 2001 2470 71
Jan 12 2001 2506 77
Jan 11 2001 2524 73
Jan 10 2001 2413 55
Jan 9 2001 2311 44
Jan 8 2001 2281 39
Jan 5 2001 2267 32
Jan 4 2001 2460 68
Jan 3 2001 2528 80
Jan 2 2001 2128 13
Dec 29 2000 2341 37
Dec 28 2000 2464 60
Dec 27 2000 2460 53
Dec 26 2000 2404 43
Dec 22 2000 2436 38
Dec 21 2000 2224 12
Dec 20 2000 2210 4
Dec 19 2000 2399 11
Dec 18 2000 2543 25
Dec 15 2000 2549 23
Dec 14 2000 2639 30
Dec 13 2000 2748 59
Dec 12 2000 2863 82
Dec 11 2000 2972 82
Dec 8 2000 2895 75
Dec 7 2000 2719 55
Dec 6 2000 2743 57
Dec 5 2000 2852 72
Dec 4 2000 2554 27
Dec 1 2000 2549 25
Nov 30 2000 2506 16
Nov 29 2000 2602 25
Nov 28 2000 2621 15
Nov 27 2000 2769 38
Nov 24 2000 2830 49
Nov 22 2000 2668 14
Nov 21 2000 2786 27
Nov 20 2000 2792 17
Nov 17 2000 2934 34
Nov 16 2000 2925 22
Nov 15 2000 3076 44
Nov 14 2000 3039 38
Nov 13 2000 2836 12
Nov 10 2000 2890 13
Nov 9 2000 3057 28
Nov 8 2000 3059 40
Nov 7 2000 3279 67
Nov 6 2000 3290 70
Nov 3 2000 3321 76
Nov 2 2000 3308 72
Nov 1 2000 3225 65
Oct 31 2000 3282 68
Oct 30 2000 3081 51
Oct 27 2000 3175 53
Oct 26 2000 3167 49
Oct 25 2000 3107 40
Oct 24 2000 3353 66
Oct 23 2000 3422 70
Oct 20 2000 3456 66
Oct 19 2000 3402 66
Oct 18 2000 3139 30
Oct 17 2000 3172 25
Oct 16 2000 3249 36
Oct 13 2000 3277 35
Oct 12 2000 3004 6
Larry congrats on a great thread. Unfortunately I dont have the programming skills to run as many tests as I would like to but here is a simple system for trading Nasdaq 100:
LONG TRADES
Buy when number of stocks above 10 DMA < OPT1
Sell when number of stocks above 10 > OPT2
SHORT TRADES
Short when number of stocks above 10 DMA > OPT3
Cover when number of stocks above 10 DMA < OPT4
I have started with OPT values:
OPT1: 11
OPT2: 29
OPT3: 89
OPT4: 71
The system produces a gain of 1499 Nas 100 points since 10/12/2000 when Nas 100 closed at 3004. I have no datafor prior dates. Thanks to Les on SI for providing the raw data in his many posts over the years.
I am playing about with it as follows:
1) Applying percentage stop losses
2) Adjusting OPT1, OPT2, OPT3 and OPT4 based on the success of the prior trade.
Schaeffer says the Nas is less vulnerable to a first half decline and the following italicised and bolded extracts from the same article may be connected to that "forecast"
Dissecting the data from the 2003 forecast a bit, we find that of the 65 prognosticators with Dow forecasts, 25 saw the Dow closing out 2003 above 10000 and just five saw the Dow below 9000. This is a remarkable statistic, given that the Dow was in the 8500 area when these forecasts were being developed. And how many of these 65 saw a declining Dow for 2003 – a close below 8500? Three.
He doesn't give a corresponding comparison of Nas forecasts, but my assumption is that he doesn't see the Nas being held up to such a high expectation.
Why, you might ask, am I focusing here on the Dow Jones Industrial Average? For two reasons. First, it is the "headline index" that most investors use as a proxy for "the market." And second, the .INDU has outperformed other major indices in recent years to such an extent that it is not out of the question to refer to a .INDU relative-strength chart as a "bubble."
Below is a chart of the 14-year relative strength of the .INDU compared to the S&P 500 Index (SPX). For the past 20-plus years (including a period that predates this chart), the .INDU's relative-strength line has fluctuated above and below a mean relative strength value of 100. So at its current value of 125, the .INDU is 25 percent higher relative to the SPX than its "norm." Must the .INDU revert to its mean, and, even if it does, must this occur in 2003? No and no. But it is clear to me that the .INDU is the most vulnerable of all the major indices, and that it is likely to "lead" the next market leg down. And on this next leg down, it would not be unreasonable to expect the .INDU to give back half of its current excess relative to the SPX, which would amount to as much as 1,000 points of additional .INDU downside.
Again, no direct comparison to the Nas, but reading between the lines you can assume that Schaeffer doesn't see such excesses in the Nas. I would have liked to have read an analysis fromSchaeffer on the Nas that went into the same level of detail, but imagine the unbrevity that would have resulted!
I see the biggest cap names in the Dow and the S&P as being most vulnerable to major declines. Many of these stocks have attracted "safe haven" money due to their large capitalizations and liquidity and the illusion of safety. But I see these names as being "first out" of institutional portfolios on the next market leg down. These include Pfizer (PFE), 3M (MMM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Citigroup (C) and General Electric (GE).
The above is more of his reasoning of why the Nas may not suffer, and by extrapolation I am assuming that when Schaeffer says the Nas is not as vulnerable, he means the Nas comp - by virtue of his relative bullishness for small and mid caps. Again extrapolating and assuming, I think Schaeffer would be very bearish on the Nasdaq 100 due to the large caps it is concentrated in.
Personally, my shorting will be focused on the Nasdaq 100 index once we see more signs of excessive bullishness. And we are nearly there looking at Investors Intelligence and number of stocks above 10 DMA.
The ISM number may have been good, but a deeper read into the report suggests it wasn't that good after all.
It seems that more orders were placed early as the purchasers knew they would be away from their desks and unable to place orders on holiday days later in December and early in January. Order backlog continued to decline.
Could be setting up for a nasty number in a month's time.
I said a foray, not an invasion. And just yesterday we get confirmation the NKs did something pretty much along those lines:
"the U.S.-U.N. command in South Korea said Friday the North had violated the truce ending the 1950-1953 Korean War six times over the past two weeks by bringing machine guns into the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas."
http://www.msnbc.com/news/850567.asp
"What I want to know is what caused the NK to abandon the agreement..."
Just a guess: The timing suggests that NK are trying to help out their friend Saddam by trying to make the Pentagon too busy to invade Iraq. If NK are determined to help their friends, they may pull some more tricks as the ME build up of US forces continues. Maybe even a warning foray into SK?
How do you define "and turns up".
Is it simply if one day it is at 20 and next it is at 21 then it has "turned up". Does this system then just hold until 45, or is there a stop loss. Thanks chun li.
That Nasdog Comp close was a masterpiece!
1400.00
How lasting do you think Venezuela turmoil will be?
If their supplies to the US are so vital then I expect CIA involvement is a done deal to sort matters out one way or another.
I believe there is enough oil destined for US in the next few days to negate any Venezuela effects on reserves in the short term. Of course, that doesn't prevent oil price from shooting up should troubles escalate, as traders will react to news.
Thanks, that makes sense.
Do NG and oil prices tend to move approximately in tandem?
what is the "ng play"?
Yes, there are quite a few potential scenarios that could send price of oil skywayrd for a while. But I think it will only be short term. The long term picture is a world full of oil and many more potential areas for production such as your example.
And of course, there will be an end result to any Iraq war that is likely to involve that particular country once again becoming a major oil producer. I am just waiting for my opportunity to short oil back down to $18 and possibly much lower over the long term (2 yrs or so). No way going short at present though, but not going long either.
I will try to find out if the US is still buying as much strategic oil as poss. It is difficult to get this info straight away as the news comes thru the grapevine as the guys come off the rigs.
I don't work in the oil business (but am looking at some related businesses opportunities) so have no special knowledge but have some good friends that do. I like to trade the price of crude within whatever OPEC's target range is at any one time. Under normal circumstances I would short around here but I am convinced that there will be a military conflict with Iraq whatever the UN inspectors discover so am holding back.
When we have war, $40 oil price, intense politicking about the rights/wrongs of the action and bickering amongst NATO members, that will be when things look the bleakest for oil and will be the right time to short. Until then, two much risk for me either long or short.
"When European real interest rates fall to our levels, their currencies will follow"
I concur in part that the Dollar isn't going to drop as much as some expect, due to other major economies being in as much trouble as the US.
I don't think that European rates will drop as low as US rates. Greenspan is aware that he is creating/lengthening asset bubbles thru low rates, and he believes it is an acceptable price to pay to try to help the economy.
The Europeans take the view that they shouldn't allow asset bubbles to be created. The central banks see their role to be maintaining price stability, and that is what they try to do. In fact BOE reently said they would have liked to have cut rates recently, but didn't because the feared the undesirable effects of further fueling the high real estate prices.
They seem to realise what Greenspan is missing: even though house prices are not included in usual calculations of inflation, housing costs are a major part of people's lives.
In Europe, mortgage rates float. So buying an expensive house while rates are low can easily lead to financial ruin should rates go up in five/ten years' time.
Go to Nasdaq site and look at the weightings for each of the stocks being dropped from the index.
Add them all up and you will see that the total is pretty small.
I am hearing that today US govt has chartered the entire available fleet of Mitsubishi's oil tankers to fill up. Mitsubishi is the major player in the tanker charter biz.
This is a significant amount of oil and a signal that the war decision has been made.
"So where do we go if this qtr around the preannouncements are not negative but positive like INTC"
Such preannouncements will produce at best only short term buying. They will set up for larger disappointments down the road.
Intel chairman Andy Grove said only a few hours ago "it might be too early to forecast the semiconductor industry's rebound."
Chun Li - A very grizzly bear who happens to be long just now.
Just advancing.
$ADVQ at eSignal
I don't have time to read all the messages here so forgive me if this has been mentioned already here.
$VXN has produced a candle today that is consistent with a bottoming day. It seems to me the absolute level of $VXN is too low for this bottom to hold for more than a month or so, but it is a bottoming candle nevertheless.
Seems consistent with Zeev's view for further upside but with that upside being limited to the next few weeks.
Do the fed always post "no action" when they make no action? I have never seen that before, maybe I just haven't looked on a "no action" day.
I just got stopped out of short from Nas100 1133 as Nas broke the upper line of todays regression channel.
To get that fast a crack you need a busy network with lots of nodes. You need to get the same IV twice or you could just get lucky with brute force dictionary password guessing. Airsnort or WEPcrack can do this within a few thousand packets. If you dont get the same IV showing up, then you either wait longer, or if you have the processing power you can brute force the key (only possible with 40 bit and 64bit unless you have invented a new supercomputer).
A home network could take several days to crack if it has sensible security.
Unfortunately, a great number of corporate networks conform to the scenario in the first paragraph of this post, rather than the second.
Using 802.11i should make you invulnerable to known hacks.
Additionally, it is not compatible with current 802.11 standards meaning anyone attempting to find a hack for it will have to use new hardware.
It is a tossup whether 802.11i or WPA will become the secure standard. Until then, the current 802.11 using static key WEP is vulnerable.
Are you using dynamic key distribution or 802.11?
Takes 30 seconds of listening to 128 bit encrypted wi fi data to decipher the key.
Once you have the key, you can see all the data.
I promise you it is a trivial matter to overcome the 128bit security you have enabled on your network. With freely downloaded software and cheap equipment it is possible to overcome this feeble security as a matter of course without being any kind of geek or hacker.
Shorting QQQ here, having been stopped out from previous short this morning
What is "NT4.x"
There was only ever NT 4.
No incremental upgrades.
Shows what they know!
I am not convinced there is a relationship either. Just keeping tabs while federal reserves is not posting here this week.
There is a theory that the RPs are a signal to PPT members, rather than a direct source of cash to buy equities that day. As such, the signal would only work during periods when the PPT are actively propping.
Even if there is no signal, the number of people watching the Fed's actions may be enough to trigger traders to take longs.
Fed just announced $3.5B repo to partially counter the $4B that drains today.
Net drain = $0.5B
That site is great, thank you very much!
I now have 2 yrs of 1 min bars for Nasdaq 100 downloading!
That should make for a few days of interesting reading. My girlfriend will be very pleased!
I have formed some "by eye only" impressions of the oddball system as follows:
It looks like the idea behind the system is sound in that increasing advancing issues lead to higher prices.
I think the weakness lies in how to identify/define increasing advancing issues.
For instance, the advancing issues on a Tuesday in the third hour of trading might be above normal and, if spotted, provide a signal to higher prices. BUT, if Monday's third hour of trading had a bigger advancing issues acceleration, then it makes Tuesday's advance look like a decline.
So my immediate concern is to find a better way of comparing than just using the same period of the previous day.
Maybe use an average of the difference between the two periods for the prior two or three days.
I intuitively believe that markets are influenced by a phenomenon called "weekends". On a Monday there are pent up investor decisions that have been building up for three days. On a Friday there is a reluctance to hold positions over a weekend. Also, futures are closed for an extended period over the weekend, so there isn't time for imbalances to be ironed out by the "invisible hand" of the market.
I don't think a trading signal derived from comparing a Wednesday to a Tuesday can be calculated the same way as a signal derived from comparing a Monday to a Friday. Maybe the comparison period should be a whole week...
I will look into these things but I seriously need a source for intraday data going back a lot further than the <three months' data I have at hand.
Ideally, I would like 5 years of data to ensure that bull market and bear market are both represented.
I adjusted all first hour trades to zero profit and the system was still down nearly 200 pts on the period.
Maybe it works better on the S&P/NYSE but I suspect that any TA is going to find things difficult if this rally is being helped by PPT. $VXN has bottomed and reversed upwards a few days ago. That is a very reliable bottom signal but the Nas comp still made a new high since then.