I don't work in the oil business (but am looking at some related businesses opportunities) so have no special knowledge but have some good friends that do. I like to trade the price of crude within whatever OPEC's target range is at any one time. Under normal circumstances I would short around here but I am convinced that there will be a military conflict with Iraq whatever the UN inspectors discover so am holding back.
When we have war, $40 oil price, intense politicking about the rights/wrongs of the action and bickering amongst NATO members, that will be when things look the bleakest for oil and will be the right time to short. Until then, two much risk for me either long or short.
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