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I think SEO leans toward being like Mike Tyson but the Ledbetter appointment gives me some hope that Bill Gates is gaining some ground.
Is ERHC still on the table or is SEO sending a message with the Ledbetter appointment that the offers weren't high enough?
We may have escaped this round but when drilling results start showing up our suitors will start bidding up the price.
Will SEO take the money and run or will he become like Bill Gates and build an empire?
In ten years ERHC could become what Addax is today. Instead of thinking of ways to exploit ERHC for his own personal gain, if he would just start building the company step by step, he could become the absolute kingmaker in Nigeria.
I predict that if SEO does sell out for crumbs, in his old age he will bitterly look back on the day he signed the papers and curse his stupidity.
Ledbetter gives me hope he is going to build the company. Proven oil in the JDZ will give ERHC the leverage it needs to become a credible force in Nigerian waters. Add in SEO's politcal muscle and you have the makings of an empire.
Could Walldog be right? Could SEO turn MEND into our protectors rather than our enemies? I believe he could.
Emeka Offor is uniquely positioned to become a powerful force in Nigerian oil and therefore powerful on the world stage. He is also uniquely positioned to become one of the biggest suckers in history by selling out for crumbs.
I wonder if going to Nigeria and begging Mr. Offor to turn this thing into a real oil company would help?
bsk
OT....I hope you all have at least a portion of your portfolio in gold and silver bullion.
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-10-is-available%21-Global-systemic-crisis-in-2007-Financial-sector-Ano...
bsk2007
Well. Let me think. I guess the main point of the post was humor. Come on. Surely you got at least a little chuckle out of it....
The debate between short termers and long termers has been going on long before the current little tiny run in the share price we've been seeing the last few days.
There isn't a right side and a wrong side to this issue.
Some very fine people on this board will be happy as can be with a few bucks a share. That's wonderful for them.
Some people such as myself would rather ride this horse to the end.
I happen to think that with ERHC, if you get out before the show is over, you'll be missing out on one heck of a ride.
Most of you know this speculation isn't anything new.
This was going on 73,000 posts ago.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7398915
Thanks for all the private messages everyone. I've been kind of busy lately.
Here's my opinion.....
My guess is it will take at least 4 years to figure out what we have in all our blocks. If Offor wants to sell then, fine, more power to him.
If he sells before then....he's an idiot.
If he has any patience at all, in five years time he will be a billionaire for real.
My advice to SEO.....raise money from somewhere else. If you just can't stand the temptation for a quick buck, sell ERHC to Addax.
Lausanne Switzerland. For me it's all about the lake.
I did go to the Ohio State/Michigan game. All during the game I never got the feeling Michigan could win the game. It wasn't as close as the score indicated. I'll be rooting for Florida.
bsk
World demand growth is outpacing growth in supply. $7 gas in the U.S. is just a matter of time. That means gasoline here in Lausanne will be about $11.
What I can't understand is why consuming nations aren't racing toward developing other sources of energy.
The next generation of batteries are a big improvement over what we have now but that's just a baby step. Same thing with fuel cells, baby steps.
If you want a sobering read, research what our military thinks about China. It's not pretty. Add to that a reawakening Russia and a Middle East that gave gifts to each other on 9-11.
The rights ERHC has are worth a fortune. I hope Offor can hold off his greediness long enough to let the world's oil companies come begging.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/HK23Ag01.html
It's a lengthy article but a very informative read.
Western oil majors are rapidly losing their control of the world's oil market. 80% of the worlds oil supply is in countries hostile to our democratic value system.
The West is going to be held ransom. In other words......$7.00 for a gallon of gas is coming.
West Africa is monumentally important to the U.S.
Ka-Ching.
Are the percentages that we enjoy a product of negotiatiing skill, or is SEO just the front man for the powerful men that are calling the shots behind closed doors?
I for one am saddened by what is coming to light about our revered and sainted leader.
It's becoming painfully obvious that SEO is indeed a product of his culture, and it's just not him, it's the men backing him also.....
He (they) are slick operators. Wheeler dealers. Grab what you can for yourself NOW! Damn the future.
The reason we Westerners had such a problem with STP's actions is because we didn't understand their presuppositional mindset. Their reality is right now, preparing for the future is a foreign concept to them.
That's why the whole continent is so damn dirt poor. They have no concept of living for the future. To them life is NOW, not later. Nigeria is a disaster area because they had no and still have no plan for long term future development.
If STP can indeed engineer a process whereby their citizens benefit from future oil revenues, it will be a culture defying accomplishment. In other words....a MIRACLE!
China to their credit has realized this and are now taking full advantage. They are pracatically stealing African natural resources by promising some here and now assets such as a hospital or a road etc.
These African countries have no concept that they have the world by the gonads. They could exploit these resources themselves and hold the world ransom. They could be the ones to end up with all the money.
Instead they are selling the mining/drilling rights for peanuts. Countries will come in and harvest the resources, bring them back to their countries and use them to enrich their economies.
In the end Africa loses. There are a few forward looking leaders starting to emerge in Africa, but their task is monumental. That's why STP is so important not just to their small population, but for the entire continent as well. Hopefully one day STP will be able to serve as a model to the entire continent.
I would like nothing better than ERHC to become a mature, fully functioning energy company because we would all make a small fortune. For this to happen it would take skillful leadership and about 20 years.
Unfortunately with our present leadership it is all but impossible for this to happen. Our present leadership views this company as a means to make some quick bucks.
If nothing changes, ERHC will be a goner once drilling starts.
Meridian, Electic, Fishdog, Mark and all the others are right. If ERHC is to have a future as a stand alone company, SEO and those he represents have to give up control to a business entity who does have a vision for the future.
I have no clue who would buy us but it would be a lot of fun to be gobbled up by Addax. I'll be disappointed but not surprised if it's CVX/XOM. Based on what's going on in STP it seems like the U.S. has plans to eventually own most of the GOG region.
The holiday season is my favorite time of year because it's a time of renewing old friendships and of spending time with those most dear to you.
I've come to admire a lot of people on this board. Dadd, Balance, Jdubs, Bobwill and many many others too numerous to mention. You all write about how you are putting your families first, and for that I admire each one of you.
From my family to all of yours....have a wonderful Thanksgiving and a Merry Christmas.
See ya'll in 2007.
bsk
The best thing about that article is that there is absolutely NO mention of ERHC at all.
I'm thankful SEO didn't drag ERHC into this mess. This was by design imo.
We are starting to get a real glimpse into who SEO is and what makes him tick. He is definitely a greenhorn.
With a little skill, he could be using his political connections to legally make a fortune. He will learn.
I have a friend who works for Haliburton in Nigeria. He works 5 weeks on and 5 weeks off. When he is in Nigeria he lives in a compound, an armed fortress is more descriptive.
Even though he is never actually on the rigs, he handles all the logistics for the crew that is on the rig. Once the 5 weeks are up, he and his entire crew go home and their replacements take over.
bsk
Is this what is written on the entrance wall of the Limp Noodle Association?
I have to believe since Mr. Schrull came from an environment of peer review, he will implement a similar decision making process with Addax. I hope so because seismic interpretation is as much of an art as it is a science.
As time passes I become more entrenched in the camp that believes the investigation was a fishing expedition.
It has all the earmarks of a hype campaign....
-Lots of national publicity about a raid on a 3 employee company with no assets.
-Articles in major newspapers and publications with identical negative slants. Same sources, same quotes, same negative bias of wrong doing.
-No actual quotes from anyone who actually knows something concrete. Just a lot of innuendo and speculation from writers who don't know anymore than we do.
Given the track record of this case, is it safe to assume that if there was something like a smoking gun, that it would have been released or maybe leaked by now? I think so.
This case is 5 months old. We impeached a president in less time.
Even though we will probably never know the original source of the investigation; in my mind if the sanctions prove toothless, then I will come to the conclusion that it is indeed sour grapes.
bsk
Balance thanks for the good job you do.
I rated Addax a "B" because they have never drilled at these depths before. Even though they are taking advantage of all the latest in deep water technology, the fact remains they have yet to drill in an ultra-deep arena.
I am encouraged by the fact that they have defined their shortcomings and are not afraid to spend the money to address them.
If I had rights to drill in deep deep water, I personally wouldn't use Addax unless I had no other choice. Experience has taught me not to be someone's guinea pig even if they sound like they know what they are doing.
I have learned to not even trust myself to fly solo on something I have never done before. In the long run it's cheaper to hire someone who knows what they are doing and learn from their expertise.
This is why I am hoping Sinopec will bring in Chevron or Shell. They need to learn from a company who knows what they are doing.
I would have preferred to stay with companies like Noble and Pioneer because of my risk tolerances. However, I do believe that in time Addax and Sinopec will become world class ultra-deep operators.
Because our drilling partners will be learning on the job we have to expect some rookie mistakes, especially from the Chinese. They have stretched themselves so thin by making so many promises of development that I hope they don't turn Africa into a disaster area.
bsk
Hi Spec....
Quite a bombshell you dropped on us...
Could this announcement have something to do with your bombshell.....
>>>In addition to those executive positions, ERHC has begun recruiting for the position of Vice President (Technical). To date, the Company has been satisfied with using technical consultants in meetings with organizations such as the JDA and in technical discussions with our consortium partners. Until now, the intermittent nature of ERHC’s requirement for the technical function made it a cost-effective option to use consultants to carry the function out. However, as operations begin to grow in the JDZ, the board has determined that it will be in ERHC’s best interests to have an in-house executive officer to manage these relationships<<<
The technical side has been a part-time job at best up to now, however the BOD has determined that a full-time position is now needed.
This VP's job will be to insure ERHC gets a fair shake from its partners. This is now a full-time job.
The writing on the wall is unmistakable IMO.
SWEET!
bsk
I wonder if your post is going to wind up proving prophetic in a couple of years.
Once some holes are dug and the blocks are proven to be as prolific as advertised, it's a very good possibility CVX swallows Addax in one gulp. If Sinopec wants to keep the JDZ happy with their drilling deadlines, a partnership with Chevron might make great sense.
In this scenario ERHC gets gobbled up as an after thought.
We'll see.
Very nice post! Thanks.
bsk
My guess is it will be Addax trying this. They seem aggressive enough to pull this off. They've got FPSO's floating all over the GOG. They also have the brains to do it properly.
CVX doesn't need to do it this way and I don't think Anadarko will either. Sinopec can't do it. So that leaves Addax.
This isn't going to be cheap.
Platforms would prove to be more economical over the life of the fields. 30 year fields would almost certainly at some point start producing NG as well. A platform could be modified/enlarged to handle what they needed.
Water depth is another issue to think about. A 400' trip is a walk in the park compared to a mile or more up to the surface. A platform could be fitted to meet exact requirements as needed.
There's people on this board far more qualified to answer your questions than I am.
http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/africaandthemiddleeast_gallery.html
Here's some examples of equipment being used today.
Sorry I couldn't be of more help.
If you were to buy shares today at $.35 and hold them for 5 years and then sell them for a paltry $3.50, you would realize a 10 fold increase in 5 years. 98% of America would think you were a genius.
Most investors in the market lose money because they are played like a fiddle. Their greedy emotions cause them to buy high and their fear causes them to sell low.
I have a sneaky suspicion that the meetings between the block players a while back were about how to cooperate once production begins. Due to the close proximity of the blocks it would be very advantageous to share FPSO's. If they could tie in their production lines into one or possibly 2 platforms, and then get an FPSO shuttle going, they all would save a fortune by not having to build and maintain their own rigs.
Variations of this are done with NG production on land all the time.
Why would they start planning their production models now? Because this would be an unbelievably complicated project and it will easily take 5 years of planning to pull it off.
Probably the number one question that is asked before a company considers where to explore is...How much is it going to cost me to get this production to market? There's all sorts of hydrocarbons in remote areas that are going untouched because it just isn't economical to get it to market.
I hope my sneaky suspicion/theory becomes reality.
Our resident fear Mongo(er) is pushing the preferred shares button again. Please ignore him. The preffered are truly ERHC's ace in the hole. If I were making the decisions I'm holding these shares until I'm ready to expand into a real O&G, or have the opportunity to buy into an already producing field, or whatever.
The last thing I'm thinking about is how to rip off the shareholders by raping the company's finances.
My personal portfolio is full to overflowing with preferred and other dividend paying holdings. The ERHC preferred, when they are finally issued several years from now, will be a welcome addition to my portfolio. There is a very good possibility I will convert all my common into preferred when the time comes.
I can't say that Offor won't sell out sometime in the future. No one knows that, not even him. Everyone has a price but I believe based on how he has evolved over the years, that he has a pretty high asking price. JMO. No one knows for sure.
Will Offor ever screw over the common? No one knows for sure. I personally think the odds are about 80% that he is here for the long haul, and he won't harm us retail holders. Since I deal in risk all day long, I consider those odds outstanding. Again, JMO.
bsk
Your phone call probably was interesting and I wish I could have listened in, but the question you have to ask is, what are the chances of what was said will actually come to pass?
Before you write me off as being an SEO fan, I'm not much of one at all. My secretary could have run this company far more efficiently than what a novice like SEO has done over the last few years.
But that's not the issue.
The issue is whether or not SEO will give up control?
The answer is NO he won't. Why should he? He stands to make billions of $$$ out of this, so he isn't going away without a HUGE! HUGE! fight.
Are you and your friends banking on the Feltang deal? I freely admit it REAKS of fraud but you have to ask, is it provable?
Nope. Not without major Nigerian cooperation it's not. The very authorities that the U.S. would need to cooperate with them probably are in some way involved. If not directly involved, they are in bed with those who are.
The other so called companies SEO has paid off in shares are shady as well. We won't be able to prove what actually went on with them either.
All these deals look bad and are probably as dirty as can be, but we have to be real about the situation in Nigeria.
SEO will do a good job securing excellent deals for ERHC in the future. We are getting all this resistance because the big boys aren't used to having to play with a little squirt like SEO/ERHC. When I say it's driving them nuts, believe me, it's DRIVING THEM NUTS! THEY HATE IT! They would like nothing better than for ERHC to fall apart and they pick up the percentages for peanuts. I'm wondering if WB has a part in all this.
Like I said before, I'm glad I hitched my wagon to SEO. If for nothing else I'm having fun watching certain people squirm over this.
The DOJ/SEC can and probably will fine ERHC for some serious offenses, but with or without WB's cooperation this case will be tied up in court for a decade. By that time oil will be flowing and most here will be long gone.
Maybe even SEO.
bsk
Kobiashi I sure do like what you have to say.
I've been invited back to China in late February. If I have the opportunity I will try to get more details on what they are thinking about the JDZ.
I do know that the JDZ is just one of many deals they are presently working on so they may not move as fast as we would like.
I'm running into the same problem myself.
bsk
Hi Rocky,
IMO your theory isn't very plausible. Possible but not probable.
My read on SEO is that he isn't the type. Our friend on another board posted that SEO likes public recognition. He likes playing the big shot and wants the peoples respect and adoration.
IMO he wants to win the peoples trust and approval and him screwing the common isn't something he will do. His insecurities will cause him to do the exact opposite so he can go around boasting....'Look how great I am!'....type of attitude.
I know it's popular to bash him right now but I'm perfectly happy to have my wagon hitched to his. He has a fighting tenacity about him and before this race is over we are going to need him. The attacks over the STP rights are going to get down right vicious.
STP is pretty quiet right now. I suspect our gov't let them in on their plans to investigate ERHC. If the results don't go their way I expect them to come at ERHC/Offor like a roaring lion. JMO.
I respect the right for everyone to have an opinion but the thought that he doesn't have the talent to lead us to the next step just doesn't hold up with me. He saved this company from the wolves and that's good enough for me. He's fought some pretty bloody battles for this company and I think he's come to the realization that he's not anywhere near ready to give it up. I actually think he loves this company.
So, how are you? Are you still standing firm? Hope so. Those who have the guts to hold to the end will make a lot of money.
There's too much oil not to.
It's interesting that the attacks are coming from within the company and from outside the company. Oil and the money it represents will cause good and decent people to act in ways they never ever thought they would.
I have the scars to prove it.
Things look a little scary now but we'll be fine.
See ya.
bsk
Sinopec thinks our very own SEO is a pain in the neck to deal with. I don't know why they think that, but they do think that.
Because they think he is a pain I wouldn't think the Chinese are candidates to do more biz with him any time soon.
IMO as times passes and things develop, Addax will prove to be our best friend in the region. I believe it will be Addax and ERHC going into STP together. They are both regional companies with the same goal in mind, to develop Nigerian/GOG resources for the benefit of the African states.
I'm desperately hoping ERHC will stay together for the long haul. We will realize more shareholder value that way. Once oil is pumping in the JDZ, ERHC can use that money to parlay it into some nice blocks in the Nigeria EEZ.
If Addax gets bought out (which I think they will), the buyer will be forced to buy ERHC as well. I believe the contracts will be written with that goal in mind.
Because ERHC doesn't have any control in any of their blocks they aren't very attractive as a take over target. I don't know how the contracts are written in regards to who gets to decide where the oil goes, but it won't be ERHC. The majors want control over the oil, not percentages in blocks other companies control.
I started getting suspicious of Walter Brandhuber when he was on "vacation" all the time. He should have been in the thick of things but instead he was on vacation.
In order to be kind to WB fans, I won't elaborate on my true feelings about him. Let me just say that I'll bet EO was furious when he found out WB was talking to the Feds. That was unforgiveable IMO.
ERHC has a CEO. He may be a temporary CEO, but he is the CEO nevertheless. I hope he stays the CEO for at least the next 5 years. Once oil is flowing in the JDZ and ERHC has some opportunities to grow itself, then it will be time for a new team to come in. I think EO is smart enough to figure that one out as well. I'm going on record right now saying that our oil men will be Africans from Addax and other companies operating in the area.
Iowa got beat by a better team last night. My hat is off to you Ohio State fans.
bsk
I would be whistling Dixie if any of the picks 3-8 come to pass.
I am desperately hoping #4 comes to pass IF and I mean IF one of the companies in 3-8 do the drilling.
Even though China/India will offer the most money up front, I don't trust them to do any drilling with my money on the line. If they decide to do the drilling on their own I will more than likely sell and move on.
In my view it looks like CVX has the inside track with Addax. I also think that whoever buys Addax buys ERHC.
The U.S. isn't planning on developing STP so they can guard Indian/Chinese oil rigs. I fully expect an all out buying spree from the US once oil is proven in the JDZ.
On a lighter note.....
The Hawkeyes are looking good
I have never seen a team get jobbed like OU did
I predict the Irish to get beat 2 more times
I'm trying to find a ticket for Ohio State/Michigan
The SEC is one tough conference
bsk
2 weeks ago the North Sea was just about all played out.
2 weeks ago Saudi was still pumping salt water into their old worn out fields trying like mad to keep their production even, forget about increasing. Now the sheiks are talking about adding 1 trillion bbls of reserves in the next 25 years. I think they should be more concerned about getting to their target of 28 mmbpd which they haven't achieved in about a year. The 27 range is looking a little shakey.
China's imports of crude have increased way more than projected. Having 1.3 billion people that all want a car will do that. HOWEVER, the Chinese are proving to be pretty smart IMO. They saw how well India did with their deep water drilling program. Since they know even less than what the Indians know, they now want to partner up with us greedy Americans. Smart move!
Even the land of illegal aliens to the south have decline problems.
The good citizens of Nigeria have taken it upon themselves to sabotage themselves out of about 800,000 bbls per day. Iraq doesn't seem to give a shoot about their production numbers either. Has Iran all of a sudden become a model citizen?
Don't look now but Russia is having problems running their own energy industry. They are finally starting to figure out they need the West after all.
I guess the worlds oil markets believe CVX that their Jack well will solve the supply problem for the next 50 years. In about a decade when that field is finally ready for production we'll see what they've really got down there.
I guess the market thinks the boys at the IEA are a bunch of liars. They've been spouting off for a while now that demand is going to outpace supply in Q4.
There must be an election coming soon. It is so sad to read the blatant spin that is out there, and what's worse is that most of America is lapping it up like a little puppy dog.
I heard on the radio today that $2.17 gas is cheap and if it gets down to $2.00 it would be a miracle. THIS IS JUST WHAT THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO THINK!
Listening to what these oil companies are saying you'd think gas is going to $.19 a gallon sometime in December, just in time for Christmas. You don't suppose....naw, it couldn't be....that they are trying to keep the same politicians in office that are letting them make $10 billion per Q.
My new name is "Let's drill deeper and solve all the world's problems" bsk, or LDDASATWPbsk.
Picture in your mind a barrel that is around 4' tall and a couple of feet wide. Now try to picture how much space 1 billion of those barrels would take up. Multiply that space by 15.
Forget about the fact that it is 28,000' below 7,000' of ocean. Forget the fact that the geology down there has to be unbelievably complicated.
Now picture one little hole being dug in this massive space.
There have been some nice advancements in drilling tech, but to say they can prove up reserves half the size of the state of Rhode Island with one hole is a pretty big stretch.
There must be an election coming up.
bsk
>>Any bets on what chip Chevron will want to cash first?<<
Are you implying that CVX is going to ask the president of the United States to go after an American listed company that has one temporary employee on its payroll?
Even if President Bush does decide to pizz off half of Nigeria and is successful at getting ERHC booted out of the JDZ, what possible good would it do Chevron?
Chevron, Exxon, Anadarko, Pioneer, Noble....none of these companies will benefit in the slightest way if ERHC goes down the tubes.
Legally binding contracts have been signed, gifts exchanged, money paid, plans are in the process of being made, etc. Nigeria and STP have moved on, hopefully these companies will as well.
Blocks 2-4 are safe. If STP wants to go after blks 5&6, as well as EEZ rights, ERHC will defend them in the appropriate courts. It's not rocket science.
I'm in agreement with those posters who wrote that the investigation won't amount to much. It's been 4 months and not a peep out of them. If the feds had anything that they thought would stick they would have been all over it back in May.
I think the DOJ/SEC will cause a few headaches for ERHC, but it won't be serious in nature. As I said previously, if any smoking gun was found, it's been my experience that we would have known about it way before now.
bsk
Hi Rocky,
Yup one and the same.
What's released in the media or to the general public is just the tip of a very large ice berg. The information being leaked to the public is that there is an air of cooperation between the parties involved.
This goes against my experience in dealing with competing oil companies over the years. Each company is in it for themselves. The farthest thing from their collective minds is that there is enough oil for everybody.
Mr. Schulls has his work cut out for him if he is in charge of coordinating the drilling schedules for four competing companies.
CVX is used to getting their own way. Getting them to share anything will be a real job.
The buyout scenario I've been reading might be a possibility after the first round of exploration is completed. If there is as much oil down there as advertised, the results of these wells will be among the most analyzed in history.
If these blocks are as good as advertised, the squabbling over who has what will be one for the text books.
The only solution to this mess may be a buyout of the competition. We'll see. One thing is for certain....the buyer will be paying thru the nose.
The attacks on ERHC will continue. These companies desperately want what our little minnow has.
bsk
Condor...
It's easy to get facts mixed up.
Offor only owns roughly 40% of the shares so he can't by himself decide the buyout issue.
A buyout price of $300 million is only about $.45 per share. I wonder if you meant $3 billion or perhaps $30 billion.
bsk
I don't have a premium service so I have to respond on this message board....
Unfortunately my suspicions were confirmed by his performance during the raid. The question you have to ask yourself is if he was too cooperative.
My hope is that WB doesn't turn out to be the star witness for the DOJ. We know he has at least one vindictive friend.
It would be sad if it turns out that the DOJ was there by invitation.
The geopolitical implications of this case makes the outcome far from settled. If the U.S. does in fact go after ERHC/SEO in a punitive way, they know they can kiss Nigerian future awards goodbye.
Congratulations Jdubs. I wholeheartedly agree with those who have said that daughters are a special gift straight from God. I have found that you can't do too much for them or love them too much, because as hard as you might try, they still outlove you.
bsk
I personally believe he was invited to not attend.
If he was my employee I wouldn't have wanted him there.
bsk
Remember the president of Mexico boasting of a 10 billion bbl find?
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/10/145048/052
Ooops!
How does a company that is flat broke with only 3 employees generate over 100 boxes of stuff?
It tells me they ignored the statutes of limitation and kept a record of everything, regardless if they needed to or not.
I wonder how many former employees are sweating this investigation out?
There's not a company in America that would come out clean if every single detail of their company was audited or inspected by the DOJ.
The good thing is that after this is over, all the dirt will be out in the open and the air of suspicion will be gone.
bsk
Hi Spec,
I've locked horns with the US gov't 3 different times and once in a major way with the French.
Even though I knew the agents were armed, I never had 15 of them show up and raid my biz and clean me out of everything. They were very businesslike but respectful at the same time.
15 armed FBI agents seems a little over the top to me for an ordinary seizure, that's why I think Jefferson is involved here.
bsk
Joe/Procon....
ERHC's legal team has shown us that they are fully capable of bogging this thing down for a long time if need be. They are going to challenge each and every move the Feds make. Most of it will be useless banter, but it will have the effect of delaying any meaningful action until long after the JDZ shifts into high gear.
This legal team isn't to be taken lightly. Once the indictment is handed down, I look for ERHC to take at least a couple of years to prepare their defense properly. Challenges of what can and cannot be entered as evidence will drag on ad nauseum.
The attorney/client mess could be dragged out for a year just by itself.
The actual trial shouldn't last all that long because the real battles will have been fought before hand.
Will STP be willing to wait on the wheels of justice here in the US? My guess is that they won't, but we'll just have to wait and see.
For the record I agree with S. Freed. If this was just an STP induced investigation, the tactics wouldn't have been so heavy handed. The Jefferson connection is what spurred on the FBI to be so rough.
If there proves to be no Jefferson connection, I don't think the Feds will be inclined to throw a bunch of time and money at this. I admit I haven't read every single detail about the dispute between STP/ERHC, but what I've read looks like a lot of innuendo to me.
My friends assure me that the DOJ will take a long hard look at the legal history surrounding this case before they take any concrete action.
If the DOJ can't get any hard proof of bribery etc. against ERHC, I think the chances of them telling STP to stop wasting their time are pretty good.
We'll see.
bsk
I have to agree with those who think this investigation goes beyond the STP mess. If us retail investors can figure out that the AG report wouldn't stand up to vigorous scrutiny, the DOJ surely knows the same thing. I can't see them basing an entire investigation on nothing but one-sided hearsay.
The speculation about ERHC bribing their way to success is unfounded. The company has been broke for years, and the supposed target of their bribing is their worst enemy.
My GUESS is that it is either Pioneer, Noble or Anadarko. Each has a bone stuck up their craw about what happened with the JDZ. Add in alleged dealings with Jefferson back in the pre-Offer days and all of a sudden you have a mess on your hands with the DOJ. Without Jefferson in the mix none of this would be happening.
My prediction is that this mess will stay in the U.S. only. It won't reach into Africa at all. Can you imagine the reaction from Obasanjo if the U.S. insisted that they scrap the entire JDZ awards and redo it? The term pompus axxholes comes to mind.
My last FEARLESS PREDICTION is that ERHC will be fined for the wonderful job they've done filing their Q's and K's. The DOJ won't be able to prove anything substantial so they have to have something to show for their time.
The bottom line is that this so called investigation will cost ERHC a couple of million in legal fees, and it will be worth every single cent to finally get this albatross off their backs.
bsk
Ken writes this like it's breaking news. There are posters on this board who could have gone into a lot more detail than what Mr. Silverstein did.
Gran Habano and Balance....
I am still of the opinion that we will make more money in the long run if ERHC goes it alone. However, bringing in Brandhuber may be a pretty big clue to what Emeka Offor is thinking.
If we do end up marrying Addax the Niger Delta will have a tiger on its hands. This will be a big time win/win for both sides....
You have to think Addax is working themselves into a lather just thinking about getting their hands on ERHC's acreage rights.
It will really help ERHC because the STP acreage won't have to be partially negotiated away because our partner Addax can fulfill any drilling requirements.
The ERHC shareholders will love it because Addax will take over the PR dept. and no more being listed on a junk board.
Will STP be more willing to deal with ERHC with Addax in the picture?.....Yup! This has the potential of defusing the whole situation.
Emeka Offor won't have the ERHC albatross hanging around his neck any longer.
So the resulting company will have drilling prospects for the next 10 years and the in house expertise to get the job done.
I don't think it will be automatic that Sinopec will be the one to step in and buy the new company though. The new Addax/ERHC will be so attractive it is going to attract worldwide attention and fetch top dollars, especially with $100 oil. KA-CHING!
We'll have to see what happens.
bsk
The going rate for elk around our house is at least $40 a pound. I don't even attempt to try to understand the whole hunting thing.
Hi Jdubs,
Chevron can afford to sit on new prospects for years so they take their time exploiting resources. China needs oil now so they operate with a sense of urgency. Nigeria and other GoG countries are growing more and more impatient with super majors like Chevron, and are now awarding exploration rights to smaller, more aggressive companies. This plays right into the hands of the Chinese.
China uses its trade surplus money to secure favor with the countries they are targeting. They build things these poor countries desperately need like roads, hospitals and schools. In exchange the countries award them with exploration contracts. Chevron hasn't quite caught on to the new playing field yet. They haven't as of yet seen the need to try to win contracts in this way.
China has taken a "hands off" approach in dealing with rogue governments. They don't care how brutal the government treats their citizens as long as they can get to that country's resources. The U.S. insists that the rogue government honor certain human rights before they will allow their companies to go in and invest in that country.
The rules of the exploration game are changing. Natural resources such as oil are going to the highest bidder. This isn't just a U.S. vs China game. It's actually a U.S. vs China vs Europe vs India vs Korea vs Indonesia game. We've just seen the tip of the iceberg.
bsk
The OBO-1 well has PROVED there is 150' of pay in blk-1. IF CVX had no intention of drilling any longer in blk-1, they would have decided 150' is not comercially viable and would have P&A and went on their merry way.
OBO-1 may have 800' of net pay but they have to prove it before they will say anything. Right now they have 150' of pay and a bunch of theories. OBO-2 will help them weed out the bad theories and show them more of what exactly they have in blk-1.
OBO-2 may only PROVE another 150' by itself, but it will also go a long way in determining how much of the 800' in blk-1 is now commercial.
OBO-3 will continue this process...and so on.
CVX has way too many irons in the fire right now to mess with what they consider marginal fields. The fact they are still in the JDZ is a VERY GOOD SIGN!
Yesterday CVX spoke their version of the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. They TECHNICALLY don't know at this time if blk-1 is commercially viable. I'm sure they have a sneaky suspicion that it is, but as of this moment they don't know.
The posts you have read on this board by the oil people stating that it will take several more wells to determine just what they have in blk-1, are right on the money.
The investors, the politicians, and the press all want to hear about the potential of the field. Oil people don't work that way. They are forced to be very methodical in their approach to proving or disproving what they are thinking at the time.
My guess is that CVX told the JDA what they POTENTIALLY had with OBO-1, and Dakoru ran with it. He's a politician, he needs good news to survive. The press need a good story so they ran with it too. We as investors need good results so we jumped on the 1 billion bbls story.
There's one word that make oil people cringe more than any other...."howsitgoin". It doesn't matter if you are going for 1000' of ng or a billion bbls of oil, people's emotions are the same. They all want to hear good news. It's just human nature.
Personallly.....I'm glad (relieved) CVX didn't pack up and leave. I promise you they would have if they didn't like what they saw.
There won't be much difference in how CVX is acting and how our partners will act when it's their turn.
Ya'll have a wonderful Memorial Day weekend.
bsk
It's ironic that this article came out today.
I was just about to post that I heard 2 darn good rumors. One of which is that the Chinese will definitely put 2 rigs to work in the JDZ if they can get them.
The other one is related to the first one. They are itching to pick a fight with their buddies CVX.
If I had to guess, it looks the the Chinese will drill next to the boarder and then dare CVX to raise a stink.
In the next couple of years this is going to get interesting. Like Walldog likes to say.....we are watching history right before our eyes.
I can't verify any of the above so don't take it too seriously but you have to admit they are 2 pretty good rumors.
bsk